Toast It's the finals countdown - 2021

[Kirkswan]

Stuff finals chat - this thread should be discussing top four.

The run home past the bye looks really juicy:

R15: Port (Adelaide)
R16: West Coast (SCG)
R17: Footscray (Melbourne - maybe?)
R18: GWS (Sydney)
R19: Freo (Home)
R20: Essendon (Melb)
R21: St Kilda (Melb)
R22: North (Melb)
R23: Suns (Home)

Thats only 2 top 8 sides in the last 9 weeks. Conservatively 5 wins, more confidently 6. Assuming a win over the Hawks this week, the Swans should be looking to finish with 14 or 15 wins. Thats absolutely top 4 territory.

Who the hell are footscray for gods sake???? lost me...

 

[Jewelsbon]

Who the hell are footscray for gods sake???? lost me...

The brave ones

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Stuff finals chat - this thread should be discussing top four.

The run home past the bye looks really juicy:

R15: Port (Adelaide)
R16: West Coast (SCG)
R17: Footscray (Melbourne - maybe?)
R18: GWS (Sydney)
R19: Freo (Home)
R20: Essendon (Melb)
R21: St Kilda (Melb)
R22: North (Melb)
R23: Suns (Home)

Thats only 2 top 8 sides in the last 9 weeks. Conservatively 5 wins, more confidently 6. Assuming a win over the Hawks this week, the Swans should be looking to finish with 14 or 15 wins. Thats absolutely top 4 territory.

Problem is our % of 111 we need a few big wins to catch up to the top 4.

 

[bedford]

Who the hell are footscray for gods sake???? lost me...

A club that were gifted a F ing Flag

 

[Kapers]

Stuff finals chat - this thread should be discussing top four.

The run home past the bye looks really juicy:

R15: Port (Adelaide)
R16: West Coast (SCG)
R17: Footscray (Melbourne - maybe?)
R18: GWS (Sydney)
R19: Freo (Home)
R20: Essendon (Melb)
R21: St Kilda (Melb)
R22: North (Melb)
R23: Suns (Home)

Thats only 2 top 8 sides in the last 9 weeks. Conservatively 5 wins, more confidently 6. Assuming a win over the Hawks this week, the Swans should be looking to finish with 14 or 15 wins. Thats absolutely top 4 territory.

Our win rate vs top 8 is better than our win rate vs bottom 10. Therefore, since we only play 2 more top 8 sides we won't make finals.

 

[Jewelsbon]

This is a great article from the wonderful Mongrel Punt. An article specifically for those of us that are happy enough to just sit back and enjoy this season.

Restricted Content - The Mongrel Punt

Content from our archives commencing with the 2018 season is restricted to members only. Gotta look after the people that look after us. Want a peek?

themongrelpunt.com

Hope the link works, I'm not great at doing this

 

[bedford]

This is a great article from the wonderful Mongrel Punt. An article specifically for those of us that are happy enough to just sit back and enjoy this season.

Restricted Content - The Mongrel Punt

Content from our archives commencing with the 2018 season is restricted to members only. Gotta look after the people that look after us. Want a peek?

themongrelpunt.com

Hope the link works, I'm not great at doing this

Can't open it , maybe for the Media thread

 

[scaryness]

I think we're making finals ?!

 

[Kirkswan]

RUNVS you're looking like Nostradamus now!!! Way to go mate!

 

[Kennedy Parker]

Every single time this thread gets bumped the team goes out and plays a shocker the next week.

 

[RUNVS]

RUNVS you're looking like Nostradamus now!!! Way to go mate!

Just got lucky

On a more serious note. We currently have 10 wins, meaning we need a minimum of 2 wins to make the finals (likely 3 wins)

Round 18 vs GWS (GMHBA)
Round 19 vs Fremantle (GMHBA)
Round 20 vs Essendon (Marvel)
Round 21 vs St Kilda (GMHBA)
Round 22 vs North Melbourne (Marvel)
Round 23 vs Gold Coast (GMHBA)

We should be able to win 3 of those, but if we hope to make the top 4 (possible, but not easy) we will need to win 5 of those 6.

 

[scaryness]

Just got lucky

On a more serious note. We currently have 10 wins, meaning we need a minimum of 2 wins to make the finals (likely 3 wins)

Round 18 vs GWS (GMHBA)
Round 19 vs Fremantle (GMHBA)
Round 20 vs Essendon (Marvel)
Round 21 vs St Kilda (GMHBA)
Round 22 vs North Melbourne (Marvel)
Round 23 vs Gold Coast (GMHBA)

We should be able to win 3 of those, but if we hope to make the top 4 (possible, but not easy) we will need to win 5 of those 6.

I would lock in Essendon and North. St Kilda and Fremantle are 50/50 imo. I fear GWS and Gold Coast every time.

 

[Kapers]

If we play with the hunger we played with vs WB and WC we win 6/6

I wouldn't be surprised if we went 2/6

We lack the killer instinct against bottom 10 teams, will be interesting to see if we can find it.

 

[SwansProudly]

If we play with the hunger we played with vs WB and WC we win 6/6

I wouldn't be surprised if we went 2/6

We lack the killer instinct against bottom 10 teams, will be interesting to see if we can find it.

but as the finals race is on, hopefully the killer instinct will be there

 

[RW]

Today was excellent, but I'm not confident about winning any of our remaining games except for Norf (because they are Norf) and Freo (because it's not in Perth). I think we will make the eight, but can't predict anything beyond that.

 

[Kirkswan]

Today was excellent, but I'm not confident about winning any of our remaining games except for Norf (because they are Norf) and Freo (because it's not in Perth). I think we will make the eight, but can't predict anything beyond that.

Making the 8 is what this thread is all about... once you make the 8, anything can happen

 

[RW]

Making the 8 is what this thread is all about... once you make the 8, anything can happen

We haven't made it yet! It's looking more likely now, though some of our remaining fixtures could be quite tricky - GWS always lift for us, St Kilda are playing good footy etc, and we don't know what impact the hub will have.

 

[Kirkswan]

Today was excellent, but I'm not confident about winning any of our remaining games except for Norf (because they are Norf) and Freo (because it's not in Perth). I think we will make the eight, but can't predict anything beyond that.

You said we'll make the 8, but can't predict anything more

I said making the 8 is what this thread is about, as in make the 8 and play finals, where anything can happen...

We haven't made it yet! It's looking more likely now, though some of our remaining fixtures could be quite tricky - GWS always lift for us, St Kilda are playing good footy etc, and we don't know what impact the hub will have.

You said and I have no idea why... are you qualifying your previous thoughts because of the lock down? If so I can understand that, but...

Back in April, RUNVS created the thread with the belief we could play finals, when most people had us finishing 10th or lower...

Every week we're a little bit closer to making that dream come true... we've held sixth for the 10th straight week, through the trickiest part of our season...

Even if we finish 8th, we've jumped 8 spots in a season! It's a joyous, wonderfully unexpected season to be savoured, and delighted in...

 

[RUNVS]

You said we'll make the 8, but can't predict anything more

I said making the 8 is what this thread is about, as in make the 8 and play finals, where anything can happen...

You said and I have no idea why... are you qualifying your previous thoughts because of the lock down? If so I can understand that, but...

Back in April, RUNVS created the thread with the belief we could play finals, when most people had us finishing 10th or lower...

Every week we're a little bit closer to making that dream come true... we've held sixth for the 10th straight week, through the trickiest part of our season...

Even if we finish 8th, we've jumped 8 spots in a season! It's a joyous, wonderfully unexpected season to be savoured, and delighted in...

Assuming we get the 3 wins we need I don't think anyone can say this season has been anything but a win for us. We went from being a bottom 4 team in 2020 to becoming a team that is capable (and has) beaten several of the best teams in the competition. I am definitely not saying our rebuild is done, we still have a few holes but the improvement has been sensational.

 

[RW]

You said and I have no idea why... are you qualifying your previous thoughts because of the lock down? If so I can understand that, but...

I think I'm just nervous... might be spending a little too much time on this board lol

I need to remind myself that this season has been a huge win for us regardless of what happens from here...

 

[Kirkswan]

I think I'm just nervous... might be spending a little too much time on this board lol

Lol! I think you thoughts are probably more common than mine... but I'll be riding the high until my hopes are dashed or my cup runneth over!

Either way, it's worth the price of the ride!

 

[Punts]

Have to finish top 4 with a clean bull of health to be a shot IMO

Playing in Victoria is one step in the right direction imo

 

[Millky95]

Have to finish top 4 with a clean bull of health to be a shot IMO

Playing in Victoria is one step in the right direction imo

Home games in Geelong would be nice

 

[the hypnotoad]

but as the finals race is on, hopefully the killer instinct will be there

already double last season's wins, even if we go winless from here ... which won't happen
every game is a worry, as proven often enough already this season
but two big factors:
one, the obvious, we're getting better ... still prone to inconsistency but sunday's win over the dogs was a very good sign ... not much from our forwards, but as a team we always seemed to have control of that game ... we're back on that positive trajectory - from the port game, to west coast, to dogs ... the likes of blakey, bell and amartey, all of whom were not seen as up to senior level eight weeks ago are now more than just contributing, so there's pressure everywhere to hold places in the team
two, you'd like to think as the prospect of finals football really sinks in across the squad, there's a hardening of attitude, particularly among the less experienced players ... there'll be a real sense developing now of just what can actually be achieved, just six games and the quite unlikely prospect of finals football is a reality ... that surely won't be lost on every player ... and then add to that the results the team has achieved against likely finals opponents and this season isn't just about improvement and development ...

i think essendon will be the toughest game, because they're similar to us, a developing side suddenly looking at finals
saints are saints, who friggin knows, but we're better than them
i am confident the losses to gold coast and freo will be enough to ensure we reverse those
gws, well, we owe them and we're meeting them at a good time
... oh, and north ...

 

[Bonz]

Every single time this thread gets bumped the team goes out and plays a shocker the next week.

I vote scaryness steps down as mod if we lose this weekend now.

It's fine, grimlock , RW or myself will simply step back into the role.

Then we can permanently closed this thread until finals is confirmed.