Recommitted Josh Dunkley [OOC 2022, requested a trade to Essendon, didn't get there]

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Mofra said:
There is some criticism of Dodoro, but the defence of his trading this year and last is strident, and it's not one or two isolated examples.


Again, refer previous comments about Dodoro not valuing his own deal as enough.
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There is pleeenty of criticism for Dodoro regarding Daniher. Many believed we should have traded Daniher last year instead of holding onto him. Plenty of criticism for the Shiel trade. Most Essendon fans also believed he unnecessarily made the Fantasia trade complicated.

I don’t have any problems with his conduct regarding the Dunkley trade though except for the length it took to come up with his offer. The final offer of pick 8 and a future second is more than enough. The 3-way trade for Treloar and Dunkley was also enough. Bulldogs just weren’t interested which is fair enough.

You’re misinterpreting Dodoro’s statement. Saying he wouldn’t do the deal if he was Bulldogs doesn’t mean he believes that’s what Dunkley is worth. It means he understands why Bulldogs didn’t trade Dunkley and would do the same for a player like him. A classic case of a player being worth more to a club than the open market considering Dunkley only has 3 quarters of one season last year to even justify a first rounder. There’s a reason why we targeted Dunkley over an Oliver type because he should realistically be cheaper than Oliver. Someone that’s pushed out of the midfield loses value.

Don’t think Dodoro or anyone expected the price to be 2 top 10 picks, which is what a contracted Oliver costs. We offered as high as we could and moved on from it. No issues there. All of Essendon, Bulldogs and Dunkley parted in an amicable way.
 
Dogsman16 said:
I think the problem is that Collingwood is ecstatic, Essendon pretty well off and we get a terrible deal.

Treloar's worth has been destroyed. And we are taking the punt that Essendon could finish bottom 5. No thanks.
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pretty safe bet imo
 
Dogsman16 said:
Because it shows how much Dodoro wants for his players.

Is Josh Dunkley in 2020 worth any less than Joe Daniher was in 2019??
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what a shock, list manager gets best deal in the best interests for his club.
 

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Dogsman16 said:
Think Essendon posters are forgetting that there is a good chance that Dogs and Collingwood do a pick swap to get the points required for JUH this year and Daicos next year. Subsequently protecting our first rounders. As i said in another post.

Dogs give
Pick 12, 2021 2nd, 2021 3rd
Coll give
2021 first, pick 35, pick 37

If we wanted Treloar we could simply offer pick 12 directly. I'm actually expecting us to look at Treloar if Dunkley goes. But why would we dilute the massive overs we could receive for Dunkley?
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Collingwood have expressed an interest in Merret hence our supporters propensity to include Zac intertwining a trade between the three clubs in question here.
 
Dogsman16 said:
Think Essendon posters are forgetting that there is a good chance that Dogs and Collingwood do a pick swap to get the points required for JUH this year and Daicos next year. Subsequently protecting our first rounders. As i said in another post.

Dogs give
Pick 12, 2021 2nd, 2021 3rd
Coll give
2021 first, pick 35, pick 37

If we wanted Treloar we could simply offer pick 12 directly. I'm actually expecting us to look at Treloar if Dunkley goes. But why would we dilute the massive overs we could receive for Dunkley?
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This is the crux of it. Whilst I have no idea what the discussions are between Essendon and Western Bulldogs, the overs you will be offered are probably not what you think will happen.

I sit here, looking at Dunkley's stats and in terms of picks only I think he's worth a first rounder as it stands. To pry him out as a contracted player I think you need to add add another 1st round pick which totals 2 x first rounders.

I don't know what the difference is between Fair Overs and Massive overs - but again in terms of picks only Essendon surely will not offer more than 2 first rounders for him. That to me is ridiculous overs.

This is why I don't think the deal will get done - what the Dogs want may be just so absurd that the deal never really gets any traction.
 
Dogsman16 said:
Ok. Just taking Zac at his word that he's staying for next year. Hence why I haven't involved him in any hypotheticals.
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and that is fine for you. All and sundry should accept that is the way you think. Many may not neccesarily agree but that is what's so great with BigFooty :thumbsu:
 
HirdsTheWord said:
This is the crux of it. Whilst I have no idea what the discussions are between Essendon and Western Bulldogs are the overs you will be offered are probably not what you think will happen.

I sit here, looking at Dunkley's stats and in terms of picks only I think he's worth a first rounder as it stands. To pry him out as a contracted player I think you need to add add another 1st round pick which totals 2 x first rounders.

I don't know what the difference is between Fair Overs and Massive overs - but Essendon surely will not offer more than 2 first rounders for him. That to me is ridiculous overs.

This is why I don't think the deal will get done - what the Dogs want may be just so absurd that the deal never really gets any traction.
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The other big question that needs to be answered is the value of said first rounder(s).

If we get pick 14 instead of pick 7(8) for Saad that changes things significantly in terms of draft pick value index.

If we get Carlton's 2021 first, we on trade that Dogs for Dunkley + something else which would go a long way to helping the Dogs avoid using a lot of 2020 draft pick (points).
 
HirdsTheWord said:
This is the crux of it. Whilst I have no idea what the discussions are between Essendon and Western Bulldog, the overs you will be offered are probably not what you think will happen.

I sit here, looking at Dunkley's stats and in terms of picks only I think he's worth a first rounder as it stands. To pry him out as a contracted player I think you need to add add another 1st round pick which totals 2 x first rounders.

I don't know what the difference is between Fair Overs and Massive overs - but again in terms of picks only Essendon surely will not offer more than 2 first rounders for him. That to me is ridiculous overs.

This is why I don't think the deal will get done - what the Dogs want may be just so absurd that the deal never really gets any traction.
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I agree with all of this.
 
tugga said:
His brother won't play a game for them. It's absurd, but clever by the Dons.
I hate to bring Richmond into it, but our success has been built around blokes playing their role and being happy with it and the success it brings.
Surely Dunkley could see that the Dogs are on the verge of at least sustained finals.
With the greatest of respect to the Bombers but they are years away from it.
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Don't forget that Dunkley has already got his premiership medallion, not to say he's not hungry for more, but if someone's going to give you a massive pay rise and let you play the role you want too then it would be pretty hard for him to turn down.
 
Dogsman16 said:
I agree with all of this.
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Cheers, I mean I looked at it with a pretty neutral hat on.

I think people get too emotional about this stuff and then throw out these ridiculous chest beating trade suggestions.
 
Hoges64 said:
No, we're basing it off what we've SEEN HIM DO ALREADY, when allowed to play in his preferred (and best) position. AA40 in 2019, when he was shifted into a more permanent role in the guts after about Rd 7 (from memory?).

We've seen close to his ceiling, and Dodo has too, which is why he's trying to pry him out 2 years early.

If Libba goes down with his knee in the JLT (or whatever they call it these days) like 2015, and we've just shipped off an in-contract Dunkley for a relative pittance, I'll drive to Footscray and hand out the pitchforks and torches, because the people will be coming!
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Sorry but one year is not enough unless the player is a KPP, especially when that one year is not backed up.
There's a big difference between his actual value and what Essendon are willing to pay because Essendon are desperate for a player like him.
Dogsman16 said:
Elite KPFs are more valuable I do agree.
However you take into consideration durability, age and contract status means that Dunkley is every bit as much worth now as Daniher was last year.
Daniher has chronic groin issues that Sydney were taking a massive chance on. And yet still offered two top ten picks which were rejected. We should be asking for the exact same deal for a player that isn’t heading into free agency, almost 2 years younger at the time and doesn’t have chronic soft issue injuries.
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Dunkley is not worth two top 10 picks no matter how many times people want to repeat it. Daniher and Dunkley are not comparable value-wise because KPFs tend to attract more value than mids. Lachie Neale didn't even go for anything close to that.

If you want a comparison, use Dayne Beams, Dylan Shiel, Lachie Neale, Adam Treloar, Tom Mitchell etc, none of which went for two top 10 picks despite having more runs on the board than Dunkley. Dunkley's value at the moment isn't at it's highest, but dogs will be getting a significant offer from Essendon because we are desperate for his type.
 

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JayJ20 said:
Sorry but one year is not enough unless the player is a KPP, especially when that one year is not backed up.
There's a big difference between his actual value and what Essendon are willing to pay because Essendon are desperate for a player like him.

Dunkley is not worth two top 10 picks no matter how many times people want to repeat it. Daniher and Dunkley are not comparable value-wise because KPFs tend to attract more value than mids. Lachie Neale didn't even go for anything close to that.

If you want a comparison, use Dayne Beams, Dylan Shiel, Lachie Neale, Adam Treloar, Tom Mitchell etc, none of which went for two top 10 picks despite having more runs on the board than Dunkley. Dunkley's value at the moment isn't at it's highest, but dogs will be getting a significant offer from Essendon because we are desperate for his type.
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Dunkley is Cleary worth 2 First round Picks (in the situation where he is contracted). Are they both TOP 10 picks? No. I think its 1 x TOP 10 and then a Mid to late first round added on. If he wasn't contracted then he would be worth 1x first rounder MAX.

Not even Neale, Kelly, etc etc went for 2 top 10 picks - that is a ridiculous price for someone who simply doesn't have the runs on the board.

We all know Dunkley is a good player but some of the dogs supporters in here are simply kidding themselves if they think this kid is worth more than guys like Tim Kelly.
 
HirdsTheWord said:
Dunkley is Cleary worth 2 First round Picks (in the situation where he is contracted). Are they both TOP 10 picks? No. I think its 1 x TOP 10 and then a Mid to late first round added on.

Not even Neale, Kelly, etc etc went for 2 top 10 picks - that is a ridiculous price for someone who simply doesn't have the runs on the board.

We all know Dunkley is a good player but some of the dogs supporters in here are simply kidding themselves if they think this kid is worth more than guys like Tim Kelly.
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yeah but Dunkley is contracted which means they can set whatever price they want for him!
 
HirdsTheWord said:
Dunkley is Cleary worth 2 First round Picks (in the situation where he is contracted). Are they both TOP 10 picks? No. I think its 1 x TOP 10 and then a Mid to late first round added on.

Not even Neale, Kelly, etc etc went for 2 top 10 picks - that is a ridiculous price for someone who simply doesn't have the runs on the board.
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Dunkley is a lot younger than both.
Kelly was a nuts trade so his value really shouldnt have much bearing on things.
Neale was a steal at 6 and a couple of upgrades.

Going rate for a quality contracted mid has long been 2x 1sts with a 2nd coming back.
Little complicated with this one given JUH eats up any 1st this year.

Future 1st & additional early 2nd (future or this year for JUH points) for Dunkley and no change might be the go.
Hard to tell. Couldn't have picked a more awkward trading partner given JUH.
 
Yoda_ said:
yeah but Dunkley is contracted which means they can set whatever price they want for him!
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technically they can. But in the hypothetical world where Dunkley nominates a trade do they really want to keep a player who doesn't want to be there? Who they don't even use in his preferred position?

We more than anyone knows that shit generally doesn't go well, buy yes in some situations it works out.
 
citizen-erased said:
Dunkley is a lot younger than both.
Kelly was a nuts trade so his value really shouldnt have much bearing on things.
Neale was a steal at 6 and a couple of upgrades.

Going rate for a quality contracted mid has long been 2x 1sts with a 2nd coming back.
Little complicated with this one given JUH eats up any 1st this year.

Future 1st & additional early 2nd (future or this year for JUH points) for Dunkley and no change might be the go.
Hard to tell. Couldn't have picked a more awkward trading partner given JUH.
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i'm not sure of the nuts and bolts but any Essendon supporter in here arguing that he isn't worth 2 firsts is taking the piss. Pending where these firsts lie, there might be something coming back but that's what the starting price will be.

The dogs supporters in here suggesting he's worth more than 2 firsts should line up a wall and run at it. might re arrange things for the better.
 
JayJ20 said:
Sorry but one year is not enough unless the player is a KPP, especially when that one year is not backed up.
There's a big difference between his actual value and what Essendon are willing to pay because Essendon are desperate for a player like him.

Dunkley is not worth two top 10 picks no matter how many times people want to repeat it. Daniher and Dunkley are not comparable value-wise because KPFs tend to attract more value than mids. Lachie Neale didn't even go for anything close to that.

If you want a comparison, use Dayne Beams, Dylan Shiel, Lachie Neale, Adam Treloar, Tom Mitchell etc, none of which went for two top 10 picks despite having more runs on the board than Dunkley. Dunkley's value at the moment isn't at it's highest, but dogs will be getting a significant offer from Essendon because we are desperate for his type.
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Look at the contract situation in all of the above. Did any of them still have 2 years to run? That automatically makes it not apples and apples. Also Neale was becoming a RFA the next year, so that always muddies the waters.

Dunkley was AA40 in 2019, then we can conveniently see why he didn't "back it up" in 2020 because of the post directly below yours, as well as a syndesmosis injury.

But to comment on the bolded above: We're not talking about his "actual value", whatever you deem that to be. We're talking about "what Essendon are willing to pay because they are desperate for a player like him". Your exact words. Very few sane people here are demanding two top 10 picks. That's probably the absolute peak of what we could ask. I'd also be shocked if we get it. But two first round picks is the absolute MINORITY of what we should be receiving, due to contract status, what he has shown (whether you disregard that or not, I GUARANTEE Dodo doesn't), and what else he brings to your club (professionalism, marketing, hell for this off-season it'd be a nice glimmer of hope for your supporter base).

You're going to have to pay overs. I'd say like it or not, but you clearly don't, so what does it matter.
 
HirdsTheWord said:
Dunkley is Cleary worth 2 First round Picks (in the situation where he is contracted). Are they both TOP 10 picks? No. I think its 1 x TOP 10 and then a Mid to late first round added on. If he wasn't contracted then he would be worth 1x first rounder MAX.

Not even Neale, Kelly, etc etc went for 2 top 10 picks - that is a ridiculous price for someone who simply doesn't have the runs on the board.

We all know Dunkley is a good player but some of the dogs supporters in here are simply kidding themselves if they think this kid is worth more than guys like Tim Kelly.
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Will be interesting and the JUH situation makes it all the more risky for both teams.

2 Future firsts could end up in a terrible trade for either team. We look like geniuses if Essendon **** the bed and the intended late first rounder also ends up top 10. Vice versa and both those first round picks involve teams in the GF would be a stinker of a trade for us.
 
Hoges64 said:
Look at the contract situation in all of the above. Did any of them still have 2 years to run? That automatically makes it not apples and apples. Also Neale was becoming a RFA the next year, so that always muddies the waters.

Dunkley was AA40 in 2019, then we can conveniently see why he didn't "back it up" in 2020 because of the post directly below yours, as well as a syndesmosis injury.

But to comment on the bolded above: We're not talking about his "actual value", whatever you deem that to be. We're talking about "what Essendon are willing to pay because they are desperate for a player like him". Your exact words. Very few sane people here are demanding two top 10 picks. That's probably the absolute peak of what we could ask. I'd also be shocked if we get it. But two first round picks is the absolute MINORITY of what we should be receiving, due to contract status, what he has shown (whether you disregard that or not, I GUARANTEE Dodo doesn't), and what else he brings to your club (professionalism, marketing, hell for this off-season it'd be a nice glimmer of hope for your supporter base).

You're going to have to pay overs. I'd say like it or not, but you clearly don't, so what does it matter.
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I'd be willing to pay two firsts. Even though it is overs for his actual value (even including the additional value the contract adds), it's worth it for us because of where our list is. I fully expect us to hand one top 10 pick and another mid-late first.
I'm not disregarding his 2019 year because it is impressive and that's why we are chasing him. It's what makes us likely to part with two firsts.

Dogs supporters on here are citing Sydney's alleged offer to Essendon for Daniher (pick 9 and a future first which is pick 3) as the base, which is crazy because unless you're Chris Judd or a talented KPF, that is way too much.

Also, Daniher last year was very crucial to us because we built a whole list around him. A father-son selection with no replacement KPF for him. Dogs are so stacked in inside mids that losing Dunkley is like a blip on the radar. He was not even part of Dogs' first choice mids this year. That's why comparing Daniher and Dunkley is crazy.
 
Geez there's a narrow window there between what you consider the absolute peak of what you could ask, and the minority you should be receiving.

Hoges64 said:
Very few sane people here are demanding two top 10 picks. That's probably the absolute peak of what we could ask.
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Hoges64 said:
But two first round picks is the absolute MINORITY of what we should be receiving
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JayJ20 said:
I'd be willing to pay two firsts. Even though it is overs for his actual value (even including the additional value the contract adds), it's worth it for us because of where our list is. I fully expect us to hand one top 10 pick and another mid-late first.
I'm not disregarding his 2019 year because it is impressive and that's why we are chasing him. It's what makes us likely to part with two firsts.

Dogs supporters on here are citing Sydney's alleged offer to Essendon for Daniher (pick 9 and a future first which is pick 3) as the base, which is crazy because unless you're Chris Judd or a talented KPF, that is way too much.

Also, Daniher last year was very crucial to us because we built a whole list around him. A father-son selection with no replacement KPF for him. Dogs are so stacked in inside mids that losing Dunkley is like a blip on the radar. He was not even part of Dogs' first choice mids this year. That's why comparing Daniher and Dunkley is crazy.
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Agree it's crazy to compare Dunkley and Joe. One player can't get on the park with chronic injury the other guy can.
 
Collingwood may look to trade into the top 10 before a McInnes pick and may be looking to trade out their future first due to the Daicos bid next year. Could give overs to get a top 10 pick this year.

Essendon
In: Dunkley
Out: pick 7, pick 16

Dogs
Out: Dunkley, future second
In: Pick 14, Pick 16 and future 1st

Collingwood
Out: Pick 14 and future 1st
In: Pick 7 and future second (points for Daicos bid)

Gives dogs pick 12, pick 14, pick 16 and two future firsts as first round selections over the next two years
Plenty of clubs would be willing to trade up for some of those first round picks. The future firsts can be used as currency to target a player next year if someone becomes available or dogs can use it in a strong draft.

Otherwise, 7 and 16 for Dunkley is an option.
 

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Recommitted Josh Dunkley [OOC 2022, requested a trade to Essendon, didn't get there]

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