Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

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You gotta let people vent on this one. We are heading into "the positive ones are the stubborn ones" territory with JL. It has been 5 years now...

Next year is 100% make or break
Why is stating an opinion supported by an interpretation of evidence venting? Disagree with it if you want, but saying criticism is just emotional venting is wrong
 
I really think if we add 1 or 2 quality small forwards, who can kick goals, provide pressure and we turn a lot of the losses into wins



Switta - 20 games, 12 goals
Frederick - 20 games, 23 goals
Banfield - 22 goals 20 goals
Walters - 17 games 17 goals


Your 4 small forwards on your list should average 1.5 goals a game. Ours are under 1.
Freddy isn't far off for a hhf. He's had better years in front of goals so confident he can fill the role and bounce back.
2022 - 28 goals (1.3)
2023 - 26 goals (1.4)
2024 - 23 goals (1.1)

Sam Sturt kicked 21 @ 1.6 goals per game.

12 goals for Switta is poor, Banfield looked like he fell off a cliff and sadly, Walters is cooked.

So, if we take Bolton, draft another with one of the top 10 picks we could be OK for a bit (albeit with little depth)

I'm also of the opinion Cooper Simpson is a bit of a slower burn, but could make it.

Freddy, Treacy, Pick 9
Bolton, Amiss, Sturt
Simpson??/Jackson
 

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Freddy isn't far off for a hhf. He's had better years in front of goals so confident he can fill the role and bounce back.
2022 - 28 goals (1.3)
2023 - 26 goals (1.4)
2024 - 23 goals (1.1)

Sam Sturt kicked 21 @ 1.6 goals per game.

12 goals for Switta is poor, Banfield looked like he fell off a cliff and sadly, Walters is cooked.

So, if we take Bolton, draft another with one of the top 10 picks we could be OK for a bit (albeit with little depth)

I'm also of the opinion Cooper Simpson is a bit of a slower burn, but could make it.

Freddy, Treacy, Pick 9
Bolton, Amiss, Sturt
Simpson??/Jackson

Other people are more bullish on Freddy than I am. I don't think his front and center work, tackling and pressure is that good.

I think he plays his best football when he leads directly at the ball, and with 3 talls plus Sturt, there is limited opportunities for him to do it. Others have said he could play on the wing, I am not sure.

My forward line for next year is this

Amiss, Treacy, Jackson
Sturt, Switta, Bolton, <Forward pocket>

For the forward pocket I would like great pressure, loves getting front and center, and can kick 20+ goals. Schultz would be perfect. Assuming we have pick 10, I think we just go Berry and put him in that spot.

The other option is to play Freddy over Switta, but I think the forward pressure Switta brings is needed.

I like Winder and Richards as well, but they would more than likely be depth.

Listening to Chris25 talk about the draft depth, makes me keener to avoid players like Jack Martin and delist a bit harder than normal.
 
Why is stating an opinion supported by an interpretation of evidence venting? Disagree with it if you want, but saying criticism is just emotional venting is wrong
I'm putting a foot in each side to try to get the very positive people to lay off what is a reasonable opinion / response. Sorry if venting offended
 
NonsenseThere's more quantitative and qualitative evidence that he's underperforming and won't be a premiership coach than there is evidence he's the next Leigh Matthews.
It's pretty obvious which group aren't using their heads.
Complete garbage or Leigh Matthews.. strewth

Why does it have to be one of those 2 options?

I'm sure there are people on here with a balanced view.
 
Other people are more bullish on Freddy than I am. I don't think his front and center work, tackling and pressure is that good.

I think he plays his best football when he leads directly at the ball, and with 3 talls plus Sturt, there is limited opportunities for him to do it. Others have said he could play on the wing, I am not sure.

My forward line for next year is this

Amiss, Treacy, Jackson
Sturt, Switta, Bolton, <Forward pocket>

For the forward pocket I would like great pressure, loves getting front and center, and can kick 20+ goals. Schultz would be perfect. Assuming we have pick 10, I think we just go Berry and put him in that spot.

The other option is to play Freddy over Switta, but I think the forward pressure Switta brings is needed.

I like Winder and Richards as well, but they would more than likely be depth.

Listening to Chris25 talk about the draft depth, makes me keener to avoid players like Jack Martin and delist a bit harder than normal.
Yep - It's a cracking draft. There's heaps of options at pick 9 and 10 that would suit Freo.
 
If Schultz played this year, ........................... I think we win another 2, maybe more


If we find two small forwards who pressure (at least one) and kick 50 goals between them we are fine. (This is the optimistic half of me)


The other half of me thinks that Fyfe, Walters, JoM, Aish, Banfield won't play as well next year, and as many games, compared to this year, and we may drop off a bit next or just stay about the same, and then climb in 2026. (I think we only have the depth to replace 2 or 3 of them)

One mature age players would help a lot, and ideally they hit the ground running.
I think there are valid reasons for where we ended up this year, I also think there are very valid reasons for being concerned with JL because in the end, it's a results driven industry. Basically I just think it's reasonable to be at least concerned, even if I think some of the rating of him is a bit extreme personally.
 
Yep - It's a cracking draft. There's heaps of options at pick 9 and 10 that would suit Freo.

There are heap of options going back to pick 50.




Have a read of what Chris said, so hopefully if we trade 10 and 17 for Bolton, we get multiple picks like 39, 41 and 47 back.
 
Very uninformed and anecdotal view here but it seems to me the teams that go deep into finals seem to have either an arseh*le coach or an arseh*le captain (or sometimes both).

Toby Greene for GWS, Mitchell for Hawks, even Trent Cochin went from soft as bugger to a tough bustard.

We've got a brilliant defender in Pearce as captain but he's a hippie. JL is a shy farm-boy introvert. Remember when Mundy was captain for a year? Great bloke, skilful player and he was utterly woeful in firing the boys up. Reclaimed his form when he went back to being a player again.

Lyon was an arseh*le for us for years, it transformed Walters from wasted talent to one of the best small forwards in the league. I even remember him saying in early 2012 he hated Ross, had an offer tabled from Port and was gonna bugger off. Then he changed his attitude and became a real player.

There's no 'rockets' being fired up anyone's backside, there's critical feedback and quiet learnings. Even ex-players like Ballantyne and Crowley have been open with their concerns about how meek and nice we are.

The captain can and should be changed to Serong immediately - he has what it takes to drive the club to incredible standards, it'd be a bold and unscrupulous move - plus he's more likely to play more games than Pearce barring mass injuries.

As for JL, we all know he has another year at least - I'd be getting an assistant or someone else in with steel balls.

It really is mostly mental at Freo.
We must eat the same muesli (Coles, toasted original BTW).
I think JLo has a ton of great attributes as a coach, building a team is one of them, but he's no mongrel and you have given plenty of examples where being a h*rd b*stard when required was essential for success. JLo can't do this, being a mongrel while chewing your fingernails is a task too hard for anyone.
Who to be the mongrel? I don't think it can be an assistant coach, I don't think they have enough recognition in the pecking order to go Rogue Alpha. An assistant mongrel would block the flow of chi.
So I think it has to be the captain and I agree, AP does not complement JLo well in this regard.
I've got my fingers crossed for Caleb. He speaks well beyond his years, he's desperate to win, he's determined to improve, he's inspirational and I pick up the fiery vibe while he can still be one of the lads. I think he can bring the edge we need. I'm not talking massive difference here. But a small improvement in the right spot can make a large difference in outcome - like the 2.5 wins we were off Top 4.
 
You gotta let people vent on this one. We are heading into "the positive ones are the stubborn ones" territory with JL. It has been 5 years now...

Next year is 100% make or break
Resigning Banners means another year of poor selections from JL and committee. Guess we'll have to wait til 2026. Maybe then the club will get it's balls back, you know after our core have decided to leave.
 
Resigning Banners means another year of poor selections from JL and committee. Guess we'll have to wait til 2026. Maybe then the club will get it's balls back, you know after our core have decided to leave.
Pretty sure they all love him, I'd argue more chance they leave sacking him then keeping him.
 

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If Schultz played this year, ........................... I think we win another 2, maybe more


If we find two small forwards who pressure (at least one) and kick 50 goals between them we are fine. (This is the optimistic half of me)


The other half of me thinks that Fyfe, Walters, JoM, Aish, Banfield won't play as well next year, and as many games, compared to this year, and we may drop off a bit next or just stay about the same, and then climb in 2026. (I think we only have the depth to replace 2 or 3 of them)

One mature age players would help a lot, and ideally they hit the ground running.
Remind me ...what did we get for Shoota?
May end up being half a Chad?
Start the car!
 
We must eat the same muesli (Coles, toasted original BTW).
I think JLo has a ton of great attributes as a coach, building a team is one of them, but he's no mongrel and you have given plenty of examples where being a h*rd b*stard when required was essential for success. JLo can't do this, being a mongrel while chewing your fingernails is a task too hard for anyone.
Who to be the mongrel? I don't think it can be an assistant coach, I don't think they have enough recognition in the pecking order to go Rogue Alpha. An assistant mongrel would block the flow of chi.
So I think it has to be the captain and I agree, AP does not complement JLo well in this regard.
I've got my fingers crossed for Caleb. He speaks well beyond his years, he's desperate to win, he's determined to improve, he's inspirational and I pick up the fiery vibe while he can still be one of the lads. I think he can bring the edge we need. I'm not talking massive difference here. But a small improvement in the right spot can make a large difference in outcome - like the 2.5 wins we were off Top 4.
Treacys got a bit of junkyard dog in there
 
Does Lachie even become a brownlow medallist if not for the coaching of Ross Lyon?





It's no surprise someone with the desire and drive for ultimate success leaves Freo and you incredible thinkers are trying to blame it on the only guy that ever brought a modicum of success in the first place.
 
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The needing a mongrel coach is so old school lol. The last premiership coach is such a scaredy cat he was too scared to give the two premiership players that he was trading a call goodbye.

Its a new generation. Hard ass coaches just turn people off. Its a much more powerful feeling not wanting to let down someone you admire than worrying about a spray. I bet you even the Scotts are massive cuddlers of their players behind closed doors.

These are grown ass men. You think screaming at them is gonna make them run harder?
I have played WAFL football. I currently play country footy. The new generation does not deal well with someone screaming at them. Our coach got sacked half way through this year because of just that.

Think about your own work place. Having a senior figure just lose his temper is embarrasing, childish and creates a toxic work place.

JL has lots of faults and the jury is still out for sure, i can admit next year is a bit make or break.

But unfortunetly the reality of the list, the one we are so excited about, with the very real possibility of adding two or more stars next year, is BECAUSE we have lost so many players which has pushed our rebuild back.

You can go deep in to finals with a list as young as ours, but everything has to go right. And when we largely had a fit list we were doing very well. Once the key injuries came in we fell apart.

Its a result based business for sure but you would be silly to make decisions on people with out using context. Look how long dimma was in no mans land just before 3 premerships.
 
The needing a mongrel coach is so old school lol. The last premiership coach is such a scaredy cat he was too scared to give the two premiership players that he was trading a call goodbye.

Its a new generation. Hard ass coaches just turn people off. Its a much more powerful feeling not wanting to let down someone you admire than worrying about a spray. I bet you even the Scotts are massive cuddlers of their players behind closed doors.

These are grown ass men. You think screaming at them is gonna make them run harder?
I have played WAFL football. I currently play country footy. The new generation does not deal well with someone screaming at them. Our coach got sacked half way through this year because of just that.

Think about your own work place. Having a senior figure just lose his temper is embarrasing, childish and creates a toxic work place.

JL has lots of faults and the jury is still out for sure, i can admit next year is a bit make or break.

But unfortunetly the reality of the list, the one we are so excited about, with the very real possibility of adding two or more stars next year, is BECAUSE we have lost so many players which has pushed our rebuild back.

You can go deep in to finals with a list as young as ours, but everything has to go right. And when we largely had a fit list we were doing very well. Once the key injuries came in we fell apart.

Its a result based business for sure but you would be silly to make decisions on people with out using context. Look how long dimma was in no mans land just before 3 premerships.

What does screaming have to do with being a hard ass? There's a fundamental difference between being an abusive sycophant vs a hardened leader who drives high standards.

You can demand excellence by giving hard and honest critical feedback, challenging players in crisis to demand more of themselves and eventually produce grater results, giving tough love and creating an environment where 'good enough' is never good enough if there's growth and improvement remaining.

I actually don't know whether JL is all or none of those things, but I surmise anecdotally there's an edge missing in the team that defies the usual excuses of age, fixturing and bad luck.

With Ross there's evidence and quotes from former and current players that he drove them to be much better versions of themselves through the tough love he showed them earlier in his career. Maybe some players will say the same about JL in 5 years from now? Like Treacy, Young, Serong etc time will tell.

I think we can all mostly agree that there's something missing from the coaching box that doesn't boil down to pure skills training, game plan execution and relationship building and there's something greater at play.
 
What does screaming have to do with being a hard ass? There's a fundamental difference between being an abusive sycophant vs a hardened leader who drives high standards.

You can demand excellence by giving hard and honest critical feedback, challenging players in crisis to demand more of themselves and eventually produce grater results, giving tough love and creating an environment where 'good enough' is never good enough if there's growth and improvement remaining.

I actually don't know whether JL is all or none of those things, but I surmise anecdotally there's an edge missing in the team that defies the usual excuses of age, fixturing and bad luck.

With Ross there's evidence and quotes from former and current players that he drove them to be much better versions of themselves through the tough love he showed them earlier in his career. Maybe some players will say the same about JL in 5 years from now? Like Treacy, Young, Serong etc time will tell.

I think we can all mostly agree that there's something missing from the coaching box that doesn't boil down to pure skills training, game plan execution and relationship building and there's something greater at play.

The fact that people assume JL is not a hard ass because he doesn't yell or show aggressiveness. Everything you said in those first 3 paragraphs is exactly my point.

None of us know exactly how critical or challenging JL is, people assume he is not those things because he doesnt put holes in walls.

Age is not an excuse its a reason. You dont win flags when all 3 of your key forwards are in the under 22 squad.
 
JL isn’t a good or bad coach, he’s an average coach. He’s so middle of the road.

53-2-52 record over 5 years with a win percentage of 49.53%. Average.

12th, 11th, 5th, 14th, 10th over 5 years for an average finishing position of 10th. Average.

We haven’t bottomed out under JL, but we’ve finished in that 10th-14th zone 4/5 of the years under JL. 2022 has become the clear outlier season, and the exception does not prove the rule.

With emphasis on the 5 years part. This isn’t a rash judgement made over 1 or 2 seasons, we have 5 years of data to determine he’s average. Half a decade is a long time.

The same re-occurring issues on game day that have been prevalent all year, some of which have been present for multiple years. Slow starts, 4th quarter capitulations, over-usage of the handball with makes us susceptible to high-pressure teams, and a tendency for our defenders to start playing kick-to-kick whenever the heat turns up, with a complete inability to get the ball out of our back half.

And that’s not mentioning the bizarre selection decisions, playing the same under-performers week in and week out, whilst others are persona non grata and banished to the Peel realm.

People think because we rarely get blown out means we are a good team, but that’s because we play a very stagnant, overly controlled style that limits scoring, which means we rarely get blown out, but also means we rarely blow teams out, meaning our opposition is always a chance, as seen by our multiple 4th quarter chokes this season.

We also just don’t handle the tight games situations. 1-1-7 in games decided by 15 points or less this year. That’s more then just bad luck.

I don’t buy the age or experience excuse. In that Port game, 3 of Port’s best players were Butters, Horne-Francis and L.Evans. An average 62 games and an average age of 20.6 between them.

I also don’t buy the injuries excuse. Carlton had half their team injured for significant portions of the season, and still they made finals over us.

Good teams find a way despite the hardships, and bad teams make excuses. And at the moment, I’m seeing a lot of the same old tired excuses from this fanbase that has come to not only accept but celebrate mediocrity.

People saying 2025 is make or break for JL. Why was this year not make or break? How long are we going to keep delaying the inevitable? That 1 year contract extension at the start of the year was useless, here we are with another season down the drain and in no different a position than we were this time last year.

JL was the coach to get us out of the hole we were in, but he’s not the coach to take us to where we want to be. Even with Bolton and others coming in next season, I don’t think much changes.
 

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Coach Justin Longmuir Pt 2

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