Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2012 Mock Draft

[LouisCK]

I imagine we'll be making it clear to GWS that we'll only offer pick 3 for a mini draft pick because it will result in us being able to take Viney in round 2. If they nominate him, we won't be as interested in a mini draft pick as our incentive to get one drastically reduces.

In any case, I think GC are the more likely team to want Viney as they need an inside midfielder badly. But apprently they're real big on Martin and are going to trade pick 2 for him.

Quick question: If GC nominate pick 2 as a bid for Viney, can they then use that pick 2 in a trade for a mini draft spot? I assume the AFL draft happens after the trades for the mini draft, right? Sounds messy.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

No, the bidding on each Father/Son pick happens before the trading period to ensure teams don't use this loophole. It's the dream - but unless GC and GWS don't bid for Viney you are taking him at pick 3.

I assume GWS know that if they bid for Viney - there's no chance they're getting pick 3 from us....

 

[Damo80]

I imagine we'll be making it clear to GWS that we'll only offer pick 3 for a mini draft pick because it will result in us being able to take Viney in round 2.

I suspect that you're understanding of the process isn't quite 100%.

As the PuppetMaster has said, GWS will know if they force Melbourne to use pick 3 on Viney, that they obviously can't expect it to also be bid in the mini draft.

What Melbourne could do is plant the seed that they have a kid in mind for pick 3/4, and if pick 3 is already used for Viney, then they'd be using pick 4 on that kid, NOT the mini draft (keeping in mind that F/S will be done and duster prior to mini draft). It will then be up to GWS whether they'd prefer to force the Dee's to use pick 3 on Viney, or whether it's in their best interests to try and gain pick 3/4 in the mini draft.

I said it earlier, but I can't see why pick 3 would come into mini draft calculations. If I were the Dee's I'd be saying pick 4... what are GWS going to do? Take pick 5 from the Dog's just to spite Melbourne for holding out on them with pick 3? Doubt it.

 

[Demonheart]

I suspect that you're understanding of the process isn't quite 100%.

As the PuppetMaster has said, GWS will know if they force Melbourne to use pick 3 on Viney, that they obviously can't expect it to also be bid in the mini draft.

What Melbourne could do is plant the seed that they have a kid in mind for pick 3/4, and if pick 3 is already used for Viney, then they'd be using pick 4 on that kid, NOT the mini draft (keeping in mind that F/S will be done and duster prior to mini draft). It will then be up to GWS whether they'd prefer to force the Dee's to use pick 3 on Viney, or whether it's in their best interests to try and gain pick 3/4 in the mini draft.

I said it earlier, but I can't see why pick 3 would come into mini draft calculations. If I were the Dee's I'd be saying pick 4... what are GWS going to do? Take pick 5 from the Dog's just to spite Melbourne for holding out on them with pick 3? Doubt it.

Very good summary

 

[saintsrfreak]

Thoughts on Adam Cockie?
He's been good for Sandringham, would he be worth picking up?

 

[tigs2010]

I assume GWS know that if they bid for Viney - there's no chance they're getting pick 3 from us....

They could get pick 4 which will still be the same player seems 3 will be Viney. And if you guys said we won't trade pick 4 if you bid on Viney then they'll probably turn around and say that's your problem.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

They could get pick 4 which will still be the same player seems 3 will be Viney. And if you guys said we won't trade pick 4 if you bid on Viney then they'll probably turn around and say that's your problem.

No. You're right.

We'll give up pick four for a team that's risking losing the number one pick just to spite us.

GWS can't get any better than what Melbourne can offer for the second mini-draft pick.

 

[tigs2010]

No. You're right.

We'll give up pick four for a team that's risking losing the number one pick just to spite us.

GWS can't get any better than what Melbourne can offer for the second mini-draft pick.

Not if GWS rate him no.1. Personally think GC is your bigger concern.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

GC are considering using pick 2 to get the first mini-draft pick...

Obviously there's a lot of water to go under the bridge, but things are looking alright from a Melbourne perspective.

 

[ZAAHAARAKIS!!!!!]

KM, what are your thoughts on VFL mature agers?
Specifically Martin, Cook, Duscher, Dowler and Wheeler.
Could they go in the ND? or are they more PSD or rookie draft prospects? if they go at all

 

[LouisCK]

I suspect that you're understanding of the process isn't quite 100%.

As the PuppetMaster has said, GWS will know if they force Melbourne to use pick 3 on Viney, that they obviously can't expect it to also be bid in the mini draft.

What Melbourne could do is plant the seed that they have a kid in mind for pick 3/4, and if pick 3 is already used for Viney, then they'd be using pick 4 on that kid, NOT the mini draft (keeping in mind that F/S will be done and duster prior to mini draft). It will then be up to GWS whether they'd prefer to force the Dee's to use pick 3 on Viney, or whether it's in their best interests to try and gain pick 3/4 in the mini draft.

I said it earlier, but I can't see why pick 3 would come into mini draft calculations. If I were the Dee's I'd be saying pick 4... what are GWS going to do? Take pick 5 from the Dog's just to spite Melbourne for holding out on them with pick 3? Doubt it.

OK makes sense except for one thing, the pick 3 is the only pick out of 3/4 that can be used on Viney if someone nominates Viney at 1 or 2 right? Cause pick 4's a concession, it can't be used on Viney, therefore wouldn't the Dees be more keen to trade pick 3 to GWS so that even if GC nominate Viney at 2 (and they will want him imo) we can take him in round 2?

I might be missing something here.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

F/S comes before trade week - we probably wouldn't give up pick three unless GWS said they'd would bid for Viney if we didn't.

Or something along those lines.

If GWS don't bid for Viney - but GC still do; then there isn't much benefit.

 

[THE_GUN]

If GC or GWS nominate Viney - which is before trade week , Melbourne must use pick 3 if they want him
plain & simple

Agreeing to trade with gws or gc so that they dont nominate viney is draft tampering & no teams will be going that path.
But in saying that , i dont think they will nominate him.

 

[jacob fairlow]

anyone think Patrick wilson from sturt a chance to get picked up?? he's been in great form and has good skills

 

[Andy_Mac]

GC are considering using pick 2 to get the first mini-draft pick...

Obviously there's a lot of water to go under the bridge, but things are looking alright from a Melbourne perspective.

I think you're right. I don't think GWS want or need Viney, so to risk having to use P1 on him without yet having GC's P2 locked away yet, which if they did take Viney at 1 would mean GC would basically have P1 so increadibly unlikely to on trade for a mini draft pick.

GC on the other hand are our worry, but again it will come down to if they rate Viney higher than Martin or probably Grundy.

 

[Damo80]

Pick 3 is the only pick out of 3/4 that can be used on Viney if someone nominates Viney at 1 or 2 right? Cause pick 4's a concession, it can't be used on Viney,

Correct. Pick 4, and pick 13 aren't relevant to F/S proceedings.

Therefore wouldn't the Dees be more keen to trade pick 3 to GWS so that even if GC nominate Viney at 2 (and they will want him imo) we can take him in round 2?

I might be missing something here.

Besides the fact that F/S will be sorted out the week before you can start trading picks (mini draft or otherwise), if GWS or GC bid on Viney, you can't take him with your second rounder - in short, you can't trade away pick 3 to avoid having to use it on Viney.

 

[LouisCK]

Ah ok I get it. Even if we were to convince GWS not to bid on Viney by saying we'll give them pick 3 for the mini-draft pick, it won't matter cause GWS could still nominate Viney and we'd then HAVE to use pick 3 for that anyway.

Gotcha, cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

KM any chance Stringer could fall to 2nd round similar to Darling ?

Also which player would you say is the best inside big bodied midfielder with pace that would be available at around pick #30-35

Thanks in advance

Stringer has a reasonably large range for a likely 1st rounder. I don't see him dropping as low as Darling did, but a drop to the late teens - similar to Elliott Kavanagh last year I think is entirely possible though.

Big bodied midfield with pace is an interesting one.
Lachie Hunter (WBD - F/S), Sean Lynch, Nathan Wright and Nathan Hrovat are all players I'd have in this bracket as big bodied types with above average pace.

As big bodied types in that range without the pace Jason Pongracic and Jesse Lonergan would also make for solid options if available at that point.

Thoughts on Adam Cockie?
He's been good for Sandringham, would he be worth picking up?

Above average athlete, has a good tackling game and generally uses it well.
Potential rookie consideration.
There are other state leaguers of a similar age group I'd probably take before Cockie though because his game over the past 3-4 years has stayed mostly the same while others have improved more.

anyone think Patrick wilson from sturt a chance to get picked up?? he's been in great form and has good skills

He is one of those going to the state screenings I see as a genuine chance to get on a list.

He has only really come onto my radar more recently with his performances - where has this guy been hiding? He's using it well and getting plenty of it. He's one coming into the draft I'll be looking at in more detail.

KM, what are your thoughts on VFL mature agers?
Specifically Martin, Cook, Duscher, Dowler and Wheeler.
Could they go in the ND? or are they more PSD or rookie draft prospects? if they go at all

Of the VFL prospects Leigh Osborne and Dean Towers are the real potential national draft guys and the ones to look out for.

Most of the rest will be more situational type selections if a particular need comes up or PSD/rookie.

Of those you mention Martin is probably the one I like most. His inside game has been really impressive and he's just that tough inside player who just goes at the footy. Potential late/rookie selection.

Duscher is one of the more accomplished VFL stars but more of a rookie selection if picked up having missed a number of games. Just a really smart player running to the right spots and always using it well. Inside game not too shabby either so I could see him making the transition as a round 1, ready to produce guy.

Cook has been impressive in the games I've seen as an outside mid and another one of those ex-Adelaide players who could receive another opportunity late/rookie.

Dowler while he has shown some signs this year I would be pretty surprised to see re-drafted.

Wheeler is a bigfooty favourite and has a really impressive game for such a young player. Unsure he gets drafted but he is certainly one of the better young VFL players.

 

[Trav 20]

So it looks like Essendon will now finish 12th with a loss to Collingwood next week and Richmond beating Port at the G. This means Essendon will have to use pick 9 on Daniher, which bumps up 'live' picks from 10.

 

[IanW]

So it looks like Essendon will now finish 12th with a loss to Collingwood next week and Richmond beating Port at the G. This means Essendon will have to use pick 9 on Daniher, which bumps up 'live' picks from 10.

The other big wildcard is who pays what for the two 17 year olds. Personally, I'd prefer good, 50-ish game players, but I dont think we'll get them so it'll be more kids from the top end of the draft ...

 

[Yoda_]

G'day Knightmare

Went along to the double header yesterday at Highgate reserve (was bloody freezing to).

Havent seen a lot of the TAC Cup this year, but gee there is a tonne of talent going to be available for the draft next year. Mark Orr (Jets), Aaron Christensen, Doug Bond, James Tsitas, Darcy Gardiner, Fraser Fort (who I feel should be in your power rankings as a KPD KM ) from the Falcons and the Rays had a heap of underagers making an impact, Jordan Bastinac, Angus Scott, Agape Patolo, Billy Hartung, James Harmes (who will shoot up the rankings when he gets a game every week).

As for the games, really impressed with Johnathan O'Rourke, first time I had seen him live, and gee he is an impressive person and player. Such a classy mover for an inside player with decent foot skills, how could you not love him?

Lachlan Plowman is a Sam Fisher clone, not Brian Lake. Took a couple of awesome contested marks and really took the game on like Fisher does.

Also want to hear your thoughts on young Andrew Gallucci? Only slight on him is his size (176cm, 66kg). He just reminds me so much of Jeff Garlett with the way he goes about his footy. Keeps his feet when he hits the contest and isn't afraid to put his head over it for someone so slight, uses the ball well and seems to be able to play inside and out with his handball recieves up. Would like to see him tackle more, but yesterday must have been an off day as he is averaging 3 tackles a game over his 15 games.

In the Rays/Falcons game was really impressed with Robert Hill (#38) a 185cm, 81 kg overager who played in defence. Took some really strong contested marks and used the ball really well providing great drive from defene. Might not be a National Draft pick chance, but definitely someone worth looking at in the rookie draft IMO.

Another guy that really impressed me was Lewis Pierce, the 202cm ruckmen from the Stingrays, word has it he has been injured a lot this year hence only managing 3 games this year for the Rays. He was very good in the ruck directing his taps to his team mates at will, but he was also able to work around the ground and (attempt to) be an option. He worked both ways taking some marks across half back and in defence but also pushing forward and kicking 1.1. Definitely a ruckmen worth keeping an eye out for throughout the finals.

Was also a little bit disappointed in the Falcons ruckmen Darcy Fort. Just not a big day for the 19 year old. Really monstered by Pierce in what was a very good duel all day, did go off after a heavy fall in a contest with what looked like a corked quad. He did direct his taps well and gave good second efforts. Hopefully it was a down day for the big fella and he can come back from this and have a good finals series for the Falcons.

And one last thing mate, i know it is still two years away but a young kid by the name of Alex Harnett, a (barely) 16 year old played his second game for the Stingrays. Despite being out positioned in structures and what not, he was superb. Took a couple of awesome contested marks for a midfielder and used the ball extremely well. Not eligible until the 2014 draft, but he is definitely one to keep an eye out for.On the flip side, some kid called Hugh Goddard played for the Falcons and looked every bit as good as his cousin. Another to keep an eye out for in the next two years.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

The other big wildcard is who pays what for the two 17 year olds. Personally, I'd prefer good, 50-ish game players, but I dont think we'll get them so it'll be more kids from the top end of the draft ...

Well, you'll get high picks - who's to say you couldn't then trade them for some good players?

 

[IanW]

Well, you'll get high picks - who's to say you couldn't then trade them for some good players?

Because AFL players really, really, really dont like being shopped by their clubs. This means the trade either needs to be initiated by the player to get playing time (ie Mumford), its related to large bags of cash (ie Clark), its related to going home (ie Judd) or the trade involves fringe players.

GWS has a tight enough cap this coming season that it isnt throwing around enough money to get an under-contract player to move - yeah, we could pay silly money for a Goddard or a Cloke, but we'd rather sign Cameron, Coniglio, Giles and Green long term. There arent any obvious cases of players who want to go home to Sydney. The obvious 'not enough game time' players are ruckmen, and we have a starter there in Giles.

A trade has to involve the player being willing to go to GWS, and GWS wanting them - which means they would be 22-28, and a regular starter with 50+ games. These are the players every other team wants as well, and we have Western Bulldogs, Melbourne and Port needing quality cattle.

Therefore, it's going to be another batch of Geriatrics With Scully signings, with a two year deal, with year one under the cap at or about 100k plus match payments, and year two as an assistant coach at or about an uncapped 200k.

 

[ThePuppetMaster]

In all likelihood - yeah, but I'm sure you'll have a go.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the review Yoda.

Fraser Fort is another year away yet. I'm sure he will work his way into my power rankings next year at some point with strong performances though.

Plowman uses it better than Fisher but for style probably is a better one with his more offensive style of play. Glad to hear he went well and there seems to be no danger of him sliding.

Gallucci is interesting and I like your observations of his game. Has improved as the season has progressed. Might be one looked at as a rookie.

Hill seems to close out his season strongly and did the same last year also for the Stingrays. He has a solid shutdown game and in more recent weeks has been given that licence to attack more.

I haven't seen much of Pierce and he has been injured for much of the past two seasons really. Pleasing that he performed strongly and will keep my eyes out for him over coming weeks.

Hugh Goddard looks like one of if not the best prospect for 2014 at this early stage and looks every bit as good as Brendon - though unlike his cousin a key forward.

Harnett is another of those impressive u16s and it's great to hear he caught the eye.