Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

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Hey KM,

Excellent work on your insights.

Lack of u18 key position players suggests some clubs may look to mature age options.

What are your thoughts on the following please and any idea which clubs are interested?

Tim Allan (Collingwood VFL)
Mitch Thorp (Playing coach south launceston, dominating weaker comp)

Thanks!
 
Hey KM could you expand a bit more on Nick Favretto. What type of player is he? Where is he playing at the moment? Do you think he would be a good fit for the Saints?
 
Hey KM,

Excellent work on your insights.

Lack of u18 key position players suggests some clubs may look to mature age options.

What are your thoughts on the following please and any idea which clubs are interested?

Tim Allan (Collingwood VFL)
Mitch Thorp (Playing coach south launceston, dominating weaker comp)

Thanks!

There are some KPP options but after Boyd and Gardiner the others look further back until they work their way up the draft order.

Tim Allan has some potential as a KPP. Has some versatility and is developing well. Has certainly had a strong past month. If he can keep up his current pace he may be worth a shot as a rookie.

Mitch Thorp is an interesting one and I know his story. When he played for Hawthorn he is a real prima dona and had a really poor attitude towards his footy. I haven't covered him in recent years but the transformation is an interesting one now that he is now only playing and dominating but then coaching a club as a player in his mid 20s.
My sense is he saying and doing the right things to give himself every chance and while I'm not covering his situation because he was delisted by Hawthorn so early he may not have had time to mature and very well may have turned things around so I'd take a look and interview with interest and consider as a rookie.

Hey KM could you expand a bit more on Nick Favretto. What type of player is he? Where is he playing at the moment? Do you think he would be a good fit for the Saints?

Favretto is a good one. More outside despite being a tall and strongly built midfielder. He really has some go with his pace but then ability to hit the scoreboard when pushing forward. He could be a fit for St Kilda but I'd say that for any team as his attributes will appeal to most.
 

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Just a couple of things for people to mull over and discuss. I'd particularly like to hear from KM, HM and Yoda with their thoughts on these.

1) What are the chances of GWS accepting Bellchambers, Crameri and Hooker for Pick #1 which the Bombers use on Tom Boyd? Is there another combination being looked at?

2) How realistic are the following drafting possibilities if Essendon finishes 7th on the ladder (providing no picks are taken after the ASADA / WADA / AFL investigation, Adelaide are out of the first 2 rounds and Melbourne don't receive a priority pick).

Pick #11 - J.Billings
Pick #28 - D.Garlett
Pick #46 - W.Rioli
Pick #64 - developing ruckman (I'm not down with prospective ruckmen)
Pick #82 - A.Heppell
Pick #100 - J.Neagle (F/S)
Pick #118 - J.Clothier (NSW Scholarship)

If these are realistic and the GWS trade gets done, the Bombers could field a side that looks like the following (provided players aren't suspended as a result of the ASADA / WADA / AFL investigation):



FF: J.Daniher T.Boyd J.Billings
HF: D.Garlett S.Gumbleton J.Winderlich
C: B.Goddard J.Watson D.Zaharakis
R: H.Hocking P.Ryder D.Heppell
HB: J.Ashby M.Hurley C.Dempsey
FB: M.Hibberd J.Carlisle T.Pears
INTER: D.Myers E.Kavanagh J.Melksham​
SUB: W.Rioli
EMER: B.Stanton B.Howlett A.Davey​
 
Just a couple of things for people to mull over and discuss. I'd particularly like to hear from KM, HM and Yoda with their thoughts on these.

1) What are the chances of GWS accepting Bellchambers, Crameri and Hooker for Pick #1 which the Bombers use on Tom Boyd? Is there another combination being looked at?

2) How realistic are the following drafting possibilities if Essendon finishes 7th on the ladder (providing no picks are taken after the ASADA / WADA / AFL investigation, Adelaide are out of the first 2 rounds and Melbourne don't receive a priority pick).

Pick #11 - J.Billings
Pick #28 - D.Garlett
Pick #46 - W.Rioli
Pick #64 - developing ruckman (I'm not down with prospective ruckmen)
Pick #82 - A.Heppell
Pick #100 - J.Neagle (F/S)
Pick #118 - J.Clothier (NSW Scholarship)

If these are realistic and the GWS trade gets done, the Bombers could field a side that looks like the following (provided players aren't suspended as a result of the ASADA / WADA / AFL investigation):



FF: J.Daniher T.Boyd J.Billings​
HF: D.Garlett S.Gumbleton J.Winderlich​
C: B.Goddard J.Watson D.Zaharakis​
R: H.Hocking P.Ryder D.Heppell​
HB: J.Ashby M.Hurley C.Dempsey​
FB: M.Hibberd J.Carlisle T.Pears​
INTER: D.Myers E.Kavanagh J.Melksham​
SUB: W.Rioli​
EMER: B.Stanton B.Howlett A.Davey​

1. If I was GWS I wouldn't do the move. Bellchambers, Carlisle and a draft pick would be more what I'd be looking at.

2. Billings possibly but most likely goes inside the top 10. Excellent investment if there though.

Garlett's draft range is still unclear. May be available in the second round but I'd have a backup in mind just in case.

Rioli is likely available as a rookie. Very talented small forward but being a heavy build and not as dominant as expected could be passed on.

Darcy Cameron is probably that better ruck prospect. Could be available late draft still depending on whether other clubs are demanding a young ruckman.

Heppell also likely available as a rookie. He's not as advanced as Dyson.


It's a heck of a core if you can get that group together if you can get Boyd, Daniher, Hurley and Carlisle all in the one team.


The key with GWS is they won't trade that no.1 overall selection unless it's a move that makes them clearly better than they are at present. With Gold Coast improving this year GWS are motivated to move up quickly but only if it's at the right price.
 
As god as Boyd is, not sure why you would want to offer up all of them for someone who is so similar to Daniher?

Essendon can cover those losses which is the key in this type of deal and why it would appeal.

Hooker while an excellent intercept marker and by position a very good user of the footy he's not going to stop a guy. Carlisle and Hurley as key defenders are both clearly better and I'd argue Hooker isn't a key defender and is something closer to a better ball using version of Nick Maxwell/Jason Cloke.

Bellchambers is an excellent ruckman but with Ryder also a number one ruckman it's a luxury having both and with Bellchambers having at various stages had injury concerns he can be let go of having never played more than 16 games in a season.

Then with Daniher as a key forward and with Boyd to come in you can let Crameri go who again while by position and of his type one of the better players in the competition again has had his injury issues having never played more than 20 games in a season.

I'd take Boyd who looks like a franchise quality key forward which alongside Daniher who after Jeremy Cameron can be that second most dominant key forward in the competition and Essendon would have probably the best key position core in the competition.

Daniher and Boyd as super tall, super dominant key forwards. Two dominant key forwards is almost always better than one and goes a long way to helping you win. Daniher and Boyd aren't all that similar stylistically either not that, that matters or limits the effectiveness of a combination. Boyd is a Travis Cloke type presence, Daniher is Franklin on stilts and with much stronger contested marking ability.
 
Fair enough, but I just think those 3 for one draft pick is overs and takes away a fair bit of their flexibility and depth (depth isn't the most important thing ever, but it sure helps you to cover for injuries).

Given that Essendon were offered picks 24 and 25 for Hooker last year and that both Crameri and Bellchambers are likely worth at least as much as Hooker, it just seems way too much to give up for just one guy, especially someone who is unproven. I wouldn't think it would take that much to get pick one off GWS, especially if they get Buddy for "free".

I would have thought that Bellchambers and one of the other two would get it done, although maybe they on-trade Crameri to someone else, as they probably won't need him with Cameron and probably Buddy up there, as well as potentially the likes of Tomlinson and Jacksch, down the track.

I also think Bellchambers, Carlisle and a draft pick, for pick one, is also way too much.
 
I note Snoop is a big wrap on Logan Austin from NSW/ACT, particularly his size, athleticism and the fact that he can 'kick it a mile'; can you tell me anything about him? Is he more of a KPF or KPD?

Logan Austin
Beconnen, 195cm, 85kg, 8/7/95
"A versatile utility who can play back, forward or through the midfield. Logan has developed well over the last 24-36 months, and looks a really good prospect for his size. The fact he can switch between all three spots makes him a rare commodity with his athleticism."
 
Dominic Sheed absolutely dominate for WA today with 4 goals & 29 touches.

Patrick McCartin also very impressive for Vic Country with 5 goals & Cameron McCarthy with 3 goals & the winning goal after the siren also looks a likely type.

Sheed killed a fairly limited Vic Country midfield.
But he looked super doing it and kicked 4, kids a ball magnet and a legitimate gun.
That performance surely boasts his stocks.
Knightmare, where do you think Sheed will go after a performance like that?
 
Apologies if this has been answered earlier KM, but what role do you see Hourigan performing at AFL level? Playing as a forward but with his build it seems like he could be handy in the midfield as a bullocking, clearance player. Nice kick who could go forward and kick a goal too. Does he have endurance issues?
 
Apologies if this has been answered earlier KM, but what role do you see Hourigan performing at AFL level? Playing as a forward but with his build it seems like he could be handy in the midfield as a bullocking, clearance player. Nice kick who could go forward and kick a goal too. Does he have endurance issues?
Not a terrible shout IMO; for comparison with the prototype of what you're suggesting:

Darcy Hourigan: 17, 191cm 91kg: underage KPF who's a touch too short for the gig at modern AFL level.
Matthew Pavlich: 31, 192cm, 99kg: CHF-cum-midfield utility. Went forward more as he became older and heavier.
 

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Fair enough, but I just think those 3 for one draft pick is overs and takes away a fair bit of their flexibility and depth (depth isn't the most important thing ever, but it sure helps you to cover for injuries).

Given that Essendon were offered picks 24 and 25 for Hooker last year and that both Crameri and Bellchambers are likely worth at least as much as Hooker, it just seems way too much to give up for just one guy, especially someone who is unproven. I wouldn't think it would take that much to get pick one off GWS, especially if they get Buddy for "free".

I would have thought that Bellchambers and one of the other two would get it done, although maybe they on-trade Crameri to someone else, as they probably won't need him with Cameron and probably Buddy up there, as well as potentially the likes of Tomlinson and Jacksch, down the track.

I also think Bellchambers, Carlisle and a draft pick, for pick one, is also way too much.

I certainly wouldn't offer picks 24+25 in any draft for Hooker. He's not even a guy I'd make a move for. He's practically allergic to contact and has incredibly limited ability to stop his man. He's a slightly better Shoenmakers who I also put into that basket where if I had him I'd probably decide against playing him in the 1s. Beyond that though GWS have got Plowman who is largely the same thing but with a stronger 1v1 game making Hooker despite being the more seasoned player still nothing that should be of relevance to them when they are in a position where they should look to fill out every position on the field with the highest possible footballers.
I probably didn't make it clear enough in my initial response post but this is the larger reason why I wouldn't do the move with Hooker on a developed GWS team in my view not best 22 relevant.

Bellchambers in my mind is worth a pick in the 10-15 range this year. Crameri probably more in the 15-20 range. Then Hooker something closer to a late second round selection (say something in the mid 30s). Two late 1st round selections and a late second round selection doesn't usually equal a number one overall selection and a club in GWS' position with a further list cull necessary want to take on less but higher quality players, so likely no more than two players with a pick which may be in the form of an upgrade with one of their selections.

GWS can always continue to compile their tall assets with those talls needing time anyway and when a club wants them badly enough they can then trade them on then as Gold Coast did with their young ruckman Tom Hickey who St Kilda badly overpayed for despite Gold Coast having a surplus of ruckmen with Smith, Dixon, Nicholls and Gorringe also on that same list. There is no hurry to move those key forwards on as clubs often pay even more for those talls who look promising after 2-3 years in the system anticipating a breaking season.

Tomlinson and Jaksch may develop as defenders but you can't bet your future on still developing players. If they develop then they can as Gold Coast did move them on for a profit or potentially for other assets that fit their needs as their window opens.

I note Snoop is a big wrap on Logan Austin from NSW/ACT, particularly his size, athleticism and the fact that he can 'kick it a mile'; can you tell me anything about him? Is he more of a KPF or KPD?

Snoop knows his NSW talent better than I do.

Austin is still very much a project. Very thin build and has in the games I've seen played where needed without dominating in a particular position. If you pick him you pick him on how quickly he is improving which as a tall is what you're looking at to determine how much further he can improve his game.

Logan Austin is probably after Perris in that 2-4 range of that NSW talent depending on how you view them. I have Austin at 3 on my NSW board after Harrison Green.

GWS are red hot on Austin and will strongly consider bringing him in as a rookie.

Sheed killed a fairly limited Vic Country midfield.
But he looked super doing it and kicked 4, kids a ball magnet and a legitimate gun.
That performance surely boasts his stocks.
Knightmare, where do you think Sheed will go after a performance like that?

Sheed is a good one. I'm not so sure it boosts him significantly up the draft boards though.

Interestingly many recruiters still have him outside their top 10s so it will be interesting to see whether they will soon start to elevate him up their draft boards to where I initially had him as a top 3-10 talent.

The general arguement against Sheed is that he is "one paced." To me one paced is fine and when you do as many things well as Sheed irrelevant because he wins it inside and outside, finds plenty of it and uses it well and makes the right decisions. Add in his ability to kick goals as a midfield and he's hard to overlook.

Apologies if this has been answered earlier KM, but what role do you see Hourigan performing at AFL level? Playing as a forward but with his build it seems like he could be handy in the midfield as a bullocking, clearance player. Nice kick who could go forward and kick a goal too. Does he have endurance issues?

Hourigan is a guy who can play either as a key forward or key defender. It may depend on who drafts him at what they need.

Perhaps he could push into the midfield and become a strong bodied inside type. I believe Tim Membrey from last year certainly could make that transition. Hourigan would certainly need to build up his endurance but that's something any player can improve with training so it is one potential vision if you are looking at that but having not seen him play through the midfield it will only be speculative guesswork based on his attributes.
If a club did have this vision you'd really want to look closely at the footage to see what he shows in traffic, whether he has clean hands or not and see how he goes when the ball hits the deck. If he goes ok in all three fields then with his big body he could be an option.
 
Knightmare, Honeychurch reminded me of Toby Greene alot (kicking style, running style), what are your thoughts on him? Should be there at the third round I imagine?
 
Interestingly many recruiters still have him outside their top 10s so it will be interesting to see whether they will soon start to elevate him up their draft boards to where I initially had him as a top 3-10 talent.

The general arguement against Sheed is that he is "one paced." To me one paced is fine and when you do as many things well as Sheed irrelevant because he wins it inside and outside, finds plenty of it and uses it well and makes the right decisions. Add in his ability to kick goals as a midfield and he's hard to overlook .

I'm floored if that is true. Out of both games today he was far and away the best player. I thought the days of drafting 'athletes' were over. I can understand that if you have a team of slow paced mids but a player who has skills set and ability to be outside the top ten is ridiculous.
 
Knightmare, Honeychurch reminded me of Toby Greene alot (kicking style, running style), what are your thoughts on him? Should be there at the third round I imagine?

Honeychurch is on a tear right now and is playing some supurb footy.

He's lightly built and not tall but he can play. Good balance of inside and outside game with his attack inside the contest excellent for a guy of his size/type then uses it well and can do some damage when he pushes forward so there's plenty to like.

With such a depth of quality smalls it's hard to find a position for him but he's certainly on the rise and can certainly get drafted with continued dominant form. 3rd round is possible but range difficult to gauge at this stage and will be clearer come seasons end.

No Alex Harnet? :oops:

Harnett up there and looks top 5. Hugh Goddard is my clear number one (when you can get quality bigs you do it) but after that you could have any number of guys.
 
I'm floored if that is true. Out of both games today he was far and away the best player. I thought the days of drafting 'athletes' were over. I can understand that if you have a team of slow paced mids but a player who has skills set and ability to be outside the top ten is ridiculous.

I agree with your view.

From the start of the year I've had him around that top 5 mark but different people evaluate talent differently and it turns out Boyd/Kelly/Aish/Scharenberg/Dunstan/Lennon/Marsh/McDonald/Bontempelli/Billings/Hartung are generally preferred ahead of Sheed and even then some put forward similar arguements with Crouch though more because he is a pure inside player which I also believe is wrong with his game so dominant that it will translate.

I generally don't like the top 10 ratings of Kelly and Hartung who in particular being both purely outside types I feel will be shut out of games pretty easily at the next level with the u18s so much easier for those outside types to accumulate crazy numbers with the gamestyle coaches are instructed to coach to best display those outside types which may make for a better viewing spectacle but is not representative of senior football. And Marsh I wouldn't have in that top 10 conversation either as he's largely the same as Mason Wood and belongs more as a 2nd round type prospect but that's just me.
 
Hey Km can you give me a list of the quickest players for vic metro and vic country by your thinking ?

Elijah Edwards is the quickest you'll ever see.

Lewis Taylor, Billy Hartung, Nicholas Bourke, Nathan Drummond, Clayton McCartney, Nathan Freeman are all very quick. Bontempelli not far off either.
 
Elijah Edwards is the quickest you'll ever see.

Lewis Taylor, Billy Hartung, Nicholas Bourke, Nathan Drummond, Clayton McCartney, Nathan Freeman are all very quick. Bontempelli not far off either.

This Nathan Freeman?
#24 Gold Coast - Nathan Freeman (VIC – Mid)Height: 181cm, Weight: 85kg, DOB: 16/06/1995
Recruited from: Sandringham Dragons
Style:
Player comparison:
Range: 10-30
Profile: Strong bodied inside midfielder with a strong attack on the footy. Real clearance machine who will get the ball moving forward. Strong mark overhead with some ability 1v1. Can push forward and hit the scoreboard. Has a knack for drawing free kicks. Despite his strong body has above average pace and can hit contests hard and come out the other end with it.
Where do I sign? Player comparison...?
 
This Nathan Freeman?

Where do I sign? Player comparison...?

It is indeed that very same Freeman.

Freeman has some Dangerfield to him. He's also been compared by others to Luke Shuey. Not quite as tall as Dangerfield but can do some similar things and with time hopefully can become nearly as dominant.

Strong bodied, wins his own footy and hits the scoreboard but then also has an immense burst of speed for an inside type and some real agility which with his strong body and ability inside games him one of the best in the draft. He can struggle accumulating the big numbers of some of the others and doesn't win that same outside ball as many of the other elite midfielders but as with Dangerfield I'm not fussed by that because of the he can turn games and just hope that the ability to find more ball more often comes later as he builds his endurance.

Once some footage comes out of his game I expect the demand will be high with Dangerfield one of the more recent real breakout types.

Hey KM, you do a mountain load of work that is incredibly admirable. Just wondering, do you keep an eye on the U/16 kids coming through? Kids likely to get drafted at the end of 2014 or 2015.

I don't get so much time to see the u16s no. Here and there I may get to see some u16s player APS footy or if they debut in the seniors particularly early but unlike football clubs as someone with a full time job (not football related) watching and following the 17s/18s/AFL/VFL/SANFL/WAFL is plenty for me as one person with limited time and resources as these are the most draft and AFL relevant competitions.

In 2014 watch for: Hugh Goddard, Clem Smith, Jake Lever, Alex Harnett, Lachlan Weller, Darcy Moore and Alec Waterman.
At this stage this group appear to be that top end and would all be probable top 10 selections if the 2014 draft was held tomorrow. Outside of this group I'm sure others will rise and pass a couple of these guys by and perhaps shift a Weller down the draft order some.
 
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