Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[Vards]

There is some absolutely exceptional indigenous talent next year so it will be a year of good viewing with those West Australian speedsters looking particularly special.

There are some pretty handy key forwards this season: Boyd, C.McCarthy, Conlon, M.Harvey, Hourigan, Marsh, Apeness, Nankervis. Tickner if you see him as a key forward. So it's not a draft without options, just the key defenders in my view this year aren't as solid a group and if you want a key defender I'd recommend going to the trade table unless you have a pick in the 5-10 range to use on McCarthy.

But next year there should also be options and if St Kilda get a high draft pick (with GWS probably taking a leap forward as Gold Coast did my guess is there is a strong change of this) I'd wait until next year as you'll have access to those higher end options which you probably don't have this year. Perhaps Hugh Goddard may be an option or if not available then McCartin early on is really showing some signs and would be a very good fit alongside White/Lee.

On McCartin he remins me a little of Alistair Lynch as that really strong 1v1 marking deep forward which alongside White certainly would give St Kilda a very different look up forward.

KM. What do you know of Tickner.? He was excellent last year as a bottom ager and although quite solid this year was restricted by a few niggling injuries during the champs. As a Brisbane Academy boy do you think he might go to the Lions or has he done enough to be picked up by others? Roughly where does he sit in the draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers KM,

Agreed on Billings. More in hope that anything else, haha. But you never know. Both Heppell and Kavanagh slid to the Bombers so here's hoping.

Dunstan I see as STK new L.Hayes. They may look at Kelly, but they need to correct their list at the coal face and with genuine leadership.

Marsh undersised but genuinely quick. Carlton desperate for forward line targets, particularly if they don't get Boyd from GWS. Marsh similar to J.Darling - although not as dominant yet.

Kolodjashnij an interesting one. I can see GC or GWS swooping on him earlier, maybe even GEE at #17. But I feel he slides a little and the Hawks move Suckling to a wing, Guerra retires and KK joins Birchall as the best rebounding duo in the AFL.

Tsitas to the Cats due to proximity - they love keeping things in-house down at the Cattery.

I like Salem, Dumont and McCarthy. Can see them going higher that I've suggested.

And I do feel Garlett is left until #31

I wouldn't really class Marsh as a forwardline target. By key forward standards he's a poor mark which at his height it a concern. A heck of an athlete but more your long leading half forward than a key forward.

The problem with the Tsitas fit to Geelong is with their really open gameplan and quick ball movement he's not really a fit. Not precise enough by foot to really be effective in that midfield. If they go a bid bodied midfielder they'd look more to a Jansen or Cripps who are more skilled and bigger bodied or perhaps a Freeman he if is still available as a more explosive inside type. If going Falcons they'll be all over Lewis Taylor.

I have to agree with you on Garlett. I think Essendon will eye him off but he's not going anywhere in the 1st round.

I'd be so pissed if Dom Sheed was there at the Tigers pick and we passed. Very, very good footballer, and would be the cherry on top of our midfield.

Dunstan is one I could see very much becoming a duo with Dustin Martin. I think they are very similar players, and we could rotate them through the middle and the forward without losing out on either of the positions.

How I hope we go, in terms of our first pick, and their availability:

1: D. Sheed
2: N. Freeman
3: L. Taylor
4: K. Kolodjashnij
5: C. Salem
6: J. Billings
7: L. Dunstan

Sheed would be a good get for Richmond. I like the fit also. He's certainly has that proven form behind him and I could see him pretty easily fitting into that rotation as a midfielder first who can rotate into the forwardline for periods.

Richmond from what I hear are also red hot on Salem so he could be higher on that draft board. You can't go wrong with any of those you listed and depending on who you ask you will get a very different order.

KM. What do you know of Tickner.? He was excellent last year as a bottom ager and although quite solid this year was restricted by a few niggling injuries during the champs. As a Brisbane Academy boy do you think he might go to the Lions or has he done enough to be picked up by others? Roughly where does he sit in the draft?

I think Tickner will get selected. Just where is the question.

Some Queensland recruiters I've spoken to rate him as a 1st - 2nd round quality prospect and while he's a good athlete by position, has excellent endurance and a strong body for his age I'm not seeing it as he doesn't find a whole lot of the ball then his marking and footskills aren't at the level of many of the other prospects.
I tend to like Tickner more as a key defender than a key forward because he has that disciplined approach to his game from what I can gather where he'll give those second and third efforts and work to stay with his man throughout the game.
The 3rd round is around where I think Tickner will be selected and a club needing a key defender could well bid a late 2nd round/ early 3rd rounder for him which I expect Brisbane to match.

 

[hayes]

What you said about Kelly worries me. Shouldn't every midfielder be capable of having an inside game and winning their own ball? An outside player who does a lot of running for receiving sounds like Farren Ray to me which surely isn't worth a top 5 pick like Ray was as well IIRC. Those players are easily tagged out of a game.

 

[Knightmare]

What you said about Kelly worries me. Shouldn't every midfielder be capable of having an inside game and winning their own ball? An outside player who does a lot of running for receiving sounds like Farren Ray to me which surely isn't worth a top 5 pick like Ray was as well IIRC. Those players are easily tagged out of a game.

Not all midfielders win their own ball. Gaff, Jetta, Varcoe, D.Pearce, C.Young, B.Johnson. And it doesn't mean they can't be valuable pieces but in saying that it's a major reason why while I accept Kelly goes top 10, it's the reason why I personally wouldn't pick him so high as good as his endurance and footskills are.

Kelly is largely another Gaff or slightly better Ben Johnson which is good enough to be a clear top 20 guy in a draft but it's a safe pick and I'm not seeing him go on to become a top 5 guy when we look back 10 years from now.

 

[Honeyboy Wilson]

I wouldn't want Kelly. Runs all day, has excellent skills but looks soft as butter and easily intimidated. When he hits the higher level, I don't see his running ability being quite the same advantage it is in the junior ranks.

 

[Knightmare]

I wouldn't want Kelly. Runs all day, has excellent skills but looks soft as butter and easily intimidated. When he hits the higher level, I don't see his running ability being quite the same advantage it is in the junior ranks.

I agree. He'll be easy to tag out of games as Gaff is being that pure outside player.

In saying that though I suspect he'll be one of those few who will play from season one and play good footy right away because as an outside type you don't necessarily need to be strongly build and his game is already at an AFL standard which others are still aspiring to build towards.

It's just I wouldn't consider his ceiling to be as high and what you see in season one while he can incrementally improve on it will largely remain the same product over the course of his career.

 

[Zach Package]

How I hope we go, in terms of our first pick, and their availability:

1: D. Sheed
2: N. Freeman
3: L. Taylor
4: K. Kolodjashnij
5: C. Salem
6: J. Billings
7: L. Dunstan

Very similar to the list i'd have for our first rounder. I'd probably add Dwayne Wilson as a personal favourite and Matt Crouch as a smokie. Perhaps even Garlett if we acquire an additional first rounder.

I'd hope for Lennon (very unrealistic) or Billings (unrealistic) But like you, I'm hoping realistically for Sheed or Freeman. Sheed reminds me a bit of a shorter Heppell, always looks like he has time and pretty decent overhead, perhaps even a bit more penetration in his leg. Reckon he'll start on a flank and be money from day one assuming he's fit and doesn't slide and go to a Geelong/Hawthorn/Sydney/Freo.

Freeman i like as a guy who can win his ball but has a really good turn of foot as well. We lack someone like that apart from Zaharakis, all our core mid group are a bit one paced, not that that's bad.
After talking to Salem and Kelly through work, they both reckon Freeman is the one who will haunt sides who pass him, good kid, works hard and super talented.

 

[HereIam86]

How do you rate Isaac Conway and do you think any other clubs will. Bid on him?

 

[Grockadoc]

Very similar to the list i'd have for our first rounder. I'd probably add Dwayne Wilson as a personal favourite and Matt Crouch as a smokie. Perhaps even Garlett if we acquire an additional first rounder.

I'd hope for Lennon (very unrealistic) or Billings (unrealistic) But like you, I'm hoping realistically for Sheed or Freeman. Sheed reminds me a bit of a shorter Heppell, always looks like he has time and pretty decent overhead, perhaps even a bit more penetration in his leg. Reckon he'll start on a flank and be money from day one assuming he's fit and doesn't slide and go to a Geelong/Hawthorn/Sydney/Freo.

Freeman i like as a guy who can win his ball but has a really good turn of foot as well. We lack someone like that apart from Zaharakis, all our core mid group are a bit one paced, not that that's bad.
After talking to Salem and Kelly through work, they both reckon Freeman is the one who will haunt sides who pass him, good kid, works hard and super talented.

I've seen Sheed compared to a less athletic Scott Pendlebury.

The way I see it:

Sheed would be the icing on the cake for our midfield: Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Vlastuin, Conca, Ellis and Sheed.

Freeman and Deledio would work wonders together. Similar style players, with Freeman a better inside game, and Deledio a bit more athletic. Those two running around in the same midfield is a prospect to salivate over.

Lewis Taylor is the player we are missing. An explosive Half Forward type player capable of doing serious damage. The only players we have in the mould are Nahas and Shane Edwards. Based on pure need,he is the one we should get.

Kolodjashnij would be a great replacement for Chris Newman, who will be gone in the next couple of years. Ready made player, and can rotate with Deledio into the midfield.

Salem is another who would compliment our midfield nicely.

Billings and Dunstan would be a great partners in crime with Martin as a rotating Forward/Midfielder.

Any of those players we get would improve our side, and make us so much better in the near future as all of them would be ready to play inside 2 years.

 

[Zach Package]

I've seen Sheed compared to a less athletic Scott Pendlebury

I and other Essendon supporters think Heppell is the next Pendlebury , so that type of comparison i think is very apt, Sheed just oozes poise, class and leadership.

Sheed would be the icing on the cake for our midfield: Cotchin, Deledio, Martin, Vlastuin, Conca, Ellis and Sheed.

Freeman and Deledio would work wonders together. Similar style players, with Freeman a better inside game, and Deledio a bit more athletic. Those two running around in the same midfield is a prospect to salivate over.

Lewis Taylor is the player we are missing. An explosive Half Forward type player capable of doing serious damage. The only players we have in the mould are Nahas and Shane Edwards. Based on pure need,he is the one we should get.

Kolodjashnij would be a great replacement for Chris Newman, who will be gone in the next couple of years. Ready made player, and can rotate with Deledio into the midfield.

Salem is another who would compliment our midfield nicely.

Billings and Dunstan would be a great partners in crime with Martin as a rotating Forward/Midfielder.

Any of those players we get would improve our side, and make us so much better in the near future as all of them would be ready to play inside 2 years.

I don't think Richmond can really go wrong in the first round. Key positions are definitely a need, but the crop just isn't there this year. Pretty much similar to the last 3 years with Conca, Ellis and Vlastuin, I reckon Richmond will just draft a high character, low risk kid with a fairly well rounded game. If I had to hazard a guess i'd say Salem.

 

[Grockadoc]

I and other Essendon supporters think Heppell is the next Pendlebury , so that type of comparison i think is very apt, Sheed just oozes poise, class and leadership.




I don't think Richmond can really go wrong in the first round. Key positions are definitely a need, but the crop just isn't there this year. Pretty much similar to the last 3 years with Conca, Ellis and Vlastuin, I reckon Richmond will just draft a high character, low risk kid with a fairly well rounded game. If I had to hazard a guess i'd say Salem.

We need another KPD and a Ruckman. We are set for Tall Forwards. With Riewoldt, Vickery, and McBean and Elton are developing nicely. Astbury and Griffiths both played as KPFs prior to drafting.

Our Defenders are thin.

Rance, Grimes (Promising, but injury prone), Chaplin, Griffiths, Astbury, Chaplin (Aging), Elton.

Our rucks are: Vickery, Maric, Stephenson, Derickx (Gone), McBean, Elton (at a pinch).

Stephenson and Derickx will be gone.

Gardiner is the best defender, and will be gone by our pick. Toby Nankervis is the interesting one. I don't think we will draft a ruckman, rather, trade for one. Nicholls, Gorringe, Bellchambers etc.

 

[jesterwester]

Love your work as always km.

Just a quick question in relation to freeman. You rate him highly, would you consider it too much a stretch for him to go at 8? (currently west coasts pick)

He seems to be what the eagles need, an explosive mid who can win the ball on the inside. Would he be capable of having an impact straight away? 85kg seems to suggest so.

 

[Knightmare]

How do you rate Isaac Conway and do you think any other clubs will. Bid on him?

I see Conway as a mid draft prospect. A club in the 2nd/3rd round will likely bid on him which won't trouble Brisbane much. Conway was largely tagged out of games through the champs but he was that primary player for Queensland copping the attention so that can be forgiven.

I think he's very much worth taking for Brisbane who do need that stronger bodied midfielder.

Love your work as always km.

Just a quick question in relation to freeman. You rate him highly, would you consider it too much a stretch for him to go at 8? (currently west coasts pick)

He seems to be what the eagles need, an explosive mid who can win the ball on the inside. Would he be capable of having an impact straight away? 85kg seems to suggest so.

I'd strongly recommend taking a look at Freeman at 8. Just think of him as another Shuey though I see him as a slightly better user of the footy and a better decision maker. I'm just not hearing as much interest from clubs with most rating him more as a 10-20 prospect which is why I suspect WCE might instead look at a Lewis Taylor or Kade Kolodjashnij or even a Darcy Gardiner if worried about Mitch Brown leaving.

In any case WCE need much more pace. Inside and outside the contest and I'm sure a number of those selections will be looking at guys who can better take advantage of that long oval you've got out West with some real running power.

 

[Grockadoc]

Hey Knightmare, after his impressive National Championships, do you think Toby Nankervis getting drafted in the ND? Or is he more of a Rookie prospect?

 

[footyfan97]

gday KM. just wonder when youre likely to have an updated draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare, after his impressive National Championships, do you think Toby Nankervis getting drafted in the ND? Or is he more of a Rookie prospect?

I think Nankervis is more a rookie prospect. But he's been excellent through the champs and one I strongly recommend a club take in the rookie draft as that no.2 ruckman who plays primary minutes up forwards. But then again if he finishes off the season well or one club is particularly keen on him he may well go in the national draft as his production and improvement from this time last year has been excellent.

gday KM. just wonder when youre likely to have an updated draft?

I just updated my draft yesterday! I just update as I go and as I find the time around work.

I've been progressing through adding some draft profiles throughout the week and have expanded to four rounds so it's just about filling out those remaining draft profiles, perhaps adding a rookie draft if I find the time and all is done.

 

[Grockadoc]

I think Nankervis is more a rookie prospect. But he's been excellent through the champs and one I strongly recommend a club take in the rookie draft as that no.2 ruckman who plays primary minutes up forwards. But then again if he finishes off the season well or one club is particularly keen on him he may well go in the national draft as his production and improvement from this time last year has been excellent.



I just updated my draft yesterday! I just update as I go and as I find the time around work.

I've been progressing through adding some draft profiles throughout the week and have expanded to four rounds so it's just about filling out those remaining draft profiles, perhaps adding a rookie draft if I find the time and all is done.

Wouldn't mind us taking the punt on Nankervis. Seems a very similar, less talented version of Tyrone Vickery. Would be alright for both to play in the same team, with Vickery starting as Number 1 Ruck in a couple of years, and Nankervis as a CHF, although McBean is one who could very well be that CHF/2nd Ruck we need in the future.

I also like you draft order in the first round, KM. Dom Sheed at the Tigers. Brilliant .

 

[tigs2010]

Personally prefer Ben Brown over Nankervis. Any thoughts on where he goes KM?

 

[Knightmare]

Wouldn't mind us taking the punt on Nankervis. Seems a very similar, less talented version of Tyrone Vickery. Would be alright for both to play in the same team, with Vickery starting as Number 1 Ruck in a couple of years, and Nankervis as a CHF, although McBean is one who could very well be that CHF/2nd Ruck we need in the future.

I also like you draft order in the first round, KM. Dom Sheed at the Tigers. Brilliant .

Stronger bodied than Vickery but can play a similar role.

Dom Sheed is a good one. While it's no secret that Richmond have long liked Salem I'd recommend Sheed instead who more than just about any other than Boyd really has that proven production behind him to suggest that he can put it together and put it all together right away and from season one play some good footy.

Personally prefer Ben Brown over Nankervis. Any thoughts on where he goes KM?

It's a close call and you could go either way and be pretty happy. They're similar level players and have both improved in a big way this season which to me suggests further growth to come over future seasons.

Brown I like more as a contested marking forward who purely plays forward but Nankervis as a no.2 ruckman.

 

[tigs2010]

Stronger bodied than Vickery but can play a similar role.

Dom Sheed is a good one. While it's no secret that Richmond have long liked Salem I'd recommend Sheed instead who more than just about any other than Boyd really has that proven production behind him to suggest that he can put it together and put it all together right away and from season one play some good footy.



It's a close call and you could go either way and be pretty happy. They're similar level players and have both improved in a big way this season which to me suggests further growth to come over future seasons.

Brown I like more as a contested marking forward who purely plays forward but Nankervis as a no.2 ruckman.

My query over Nankervis is whether he is mobile enough and good enough to play 80% forward at AFL level and with the lack of athleticism is he big (tall) enough to play 1st ruck.

Where as for Brown I think he is athletic and a good mark and could spend a considerable amount of time forward. Whilst if he had to his athletic ability would allow him to play 1st ruck in the odd game. Using Richmond as an example, he's put Vickery under more pressure to perform as that 2nd ruck/KPF. But could also spell Maric for a game or 2 if he needed a rest.

 

[Knightmare]

My query over Nankervis is whether he is mobile enough and good enough to play 80% forward at AFL level and with the lack of athleticism is he big (tall) enough to play 1st ruck.

Where as for Brown I think he is athletic and a good mark and could spend a considerable amount of time forward. Whilst if he had to his athletic ability would allow him to play 1st ruck in the odd game. Using Richmond as an example, he's put Vickery under more pressure to perform as that 2nd ruck/KPF. But could also spell Maric for a game or 2 if he needed a rest.

Nankervis isn't a first ruck. He finds plenty of it around the ground and he could be a poor mans McEvoy in that role being more someone who finds it around the ground rather than dominates the taps but he's more a forward who can pinch hit in the ruck without a team losing too much. Athletically I can't imagine he will test test well. He covers the ground well but he won't outleap the new generation ruckmen who are coming in so your Naitanui's and those probably American ruckmen who will start to be introduced to the game over coming seasons will likely leave him overmatched in that no.1 ruck role.

With Ben Brown I'm not convinced he could ruck a whole game. As a key forward and to pinch hit in the ruck he's a guy who is exceptionally draftable at his size with his contested marking ability, ability from set shots and above average athleticism but as a no.1 ruckman I expect he would be way overmatched. His body work is better than it was but he's not going to overpower or outleap too many and around the ground he's not an accumulator as Nankervis is so he's not really suited to that role at all based on the games I've seen of him over the past two seasons but as a forward he's got something and as an improving guy at his height with the tools he has. A team could do worse than take a shot at Brown.

If looking for a no.1 ruckman from the state leagues a Sikora is probably a better bet. Or draft Darcy Cameron if looking for a genuine no.1 ruckman who can play forward and go well.

 

[tigs2010]

We probably need one of each. Would love Sikora too or trade for Currie. Or as rumoured we can land Longer or Gorringe in a trade.

I wasn't saying Brown would dominate 1st ruck or anything. I just feel out of the 2 they'd both be on the list for the same role but if desperate Brown could at least give a decent contest in the ruck.

 

[Nemisis]

Heppell is a good player with some upside BUT is no Pendelbury, who is an absolute champion.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

KM, a lot of discussion on our board of the possibility of using McEvoy in a trade to get #1 to use on Boyd.

What value would you put on McEvoy and do you believe he would attract interest off GWS and if so what type of deal do you believe works for both clubs?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, a lot of discussion on our board of the possibility of using McEvoy in a trade to get #1 to use on Boyd.

What value would you put on McEvoy and do you believe he would attract interest off GWS and if so what type of deal do you believe works for both clubs?

More will need to be offered than just Big Boy McEvoy. McEvoy is worth a first round selection but not much more as a ruckman who finds more ball than most with the way he pushes back but he's also a guy opposition ruckmen can really dominate in the hitout count and find plenty of the ball themselves on so he's a far from elite talent.
If offloading McEvoy GWS would ask for that first round selection in addition to McEvoy as pick 1 (Boyd) is projected to be a key forward you can build around and at pick 3/4 or wherever St Kilda are picking it's far from a guaranteed star coming from that pick as the deeper you go into the draft the more it becomes a lottery.

GWS are of the mindset that they'll be able to add a ruckman at the free agency table later and as a club on the rise who come free agency two years down the track will be a "destination club" where players will go there looking to win so they don't really need McEvoy.

GWS need some big bodied midfielders so if a young big bodied midfielder can be found and add a pick perhaps GWS take a look, but it would have to be a quality young big bodied midfielder and a high pick.
The type of deal St Kilda might be able to complete if going for Boyd is Armitage + 1st + 2nd round selections for pick 1 overall.