Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[straightuplazy]

KM, i was wondering if Willie Rioli is up for trade this year? if so, what round do you see him going?

 

[Sydswans0512]

Knightmare Swans need KPDs and I'm pretty sure Gardiner won't be around out our pick who would you suggest?

 

[TheLastEmperor]

More will need to be offered than just Big Boy McEvoy. McEvoy is worth a first round selection but not much more as a ruckman who finds more ball than most with the way he pushes back but he's also a guy opposition ruckmen can really dominate in the hitout count and find plenty of the ball themselves on so he's a far from elite talent.
If offloading McEvoy GWS would ask for that first round selection in addition to McEvoy as pick 1 (Boyd) is projected to be a key forward you can build around and at pick 3/4 or wherever St Kilda are picking it's far from a guaranteed star coming from that pick as the deeper you go into the draft the more it becomes a lottery.

GWS are of the mindset that they'll be able to add a ruckman at the free agency table later and as a club on the rise who come free agency two years down the track will be a "destination club" where players will go there looking to win so they don't really need McEvoy.

GWS need some big bodied midfielders so if a young big bodied midfielder can be found and add a pick perhaps GWS take a look, but it would have to be a quality young big bodied midfielder and a high pick.
The type of deal St Kilda might be able to complete if going for Boyd is Armitage + 1st + 2nd round selections for pick 1 overall.

I figured as much. I personally hope St Kilda steer clear of that sort of trade giving up potentially McEvoy and one of Aish/Sharenberg/Kelly for Boyd alone. I'm not trying to undersell Boyd but as we know pick #1 does not necessarily end up a better player than pick #3.

Just seems like overs and I firmly believe GWS will want to be compensated with an extraordinary amount which will likely scare most, if not all clubs away. I see deals breaking down and GWS ending up with pick #1 themselves which they won't be upset about.

I also suspect GWS through the media are appeasing the AFL who want them to become competitive sooner rather than later by offering early picks for ready-made players.

I continually use your mock drafts as a reference guide and I'd like to know what your opinion on the progress of a few of our picks from the last few drafts as I value your opinion highly. Specifically the level of player young Newnes, Ross, Webster, Wright, White, Murdoch and Saunders become? Just briefly not to waste too much of your time. Cheers.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, i was wondering if Willie Rioli is up for trade this year? if so, what round do you see him going?

Rioli is draft eligable this year.

Will likely only require a rookie selection if you want him.

Knightmare Swans need KPDs and I'm pretty sure Gardiner won't be around out our pick who would you suggest?

A Darcy Hourigan could be an option if ok not going super tall.

My recommendation to Sydney though is to look to trade week. Jack Frost from Collingwood is fourth in the pecking order and is AFL quality. If ok paying more Lachie Keeffe while I'm completely against trading him as I see him as Collingwood's best key defender when healthy but he'd be a big time get and a very smart get for those "moneyball" recruiters as the media continue to call them now that it's come into vogue.

 

[Sydswans0512]

Rioli is draft eligable this year.

Will likely only require a rookie selection if you want him.



A Darcy Hourigan could be an option if ok not going super tall.

My recommendation to Sydney though is to look to trade week. Jack Frost from Collingwood is fourth in the pecking order and is AFL quality. If ok paying more Lachie Keeffe while I'm completely against trading him as I see him as Collingwood's best key defender when healthy but he'd be a big time get and a very smart get for those "moneyball" recruiters as the media continue to call them now that it's come into vogue.

So it's pretty thin in the draft then Hourigan, not really what we are looking for he's more of a forward right? We have Membrey. Would be interested in Keefe remember him playing really well on a couple of power forwards prior to doing his knee

 

[Turbocat]

Not sure Im in love with your revised list KM , all the ones I like have gone Bontempelli, Salam , KK ..

If we pick Lewis Taylor it would be a drastic point of difference to what Wells has done in the past. He looks a nice sort of player but he appears to lack penetration on his kicks.Very neat though. Does he mark over head? Very different to the norm for SW. On paper Acres looks more Wells but we will see I suppose.


Cutter , is he a KB? @ 190 is he a key position player? Can not visualise him so he could be a gun for all in know.

 

[Knightmare]

I figured as much. I personally hope St Kilda steer clear of that sort of trade giving up potentially McEvoy and one of Aish/Sharenberg/Kelly for Boyd alone. I'm not trying to undersell Boyd but as we know pick #1 does not necessarily end up a better player than pick #3.

Just seems like overs and I firmly believe GWS will want to be compensated with an extraordinary amount which will likely scare most, if not all clubs away. I see deals breaking down and GWS ending up with pick #1 themselves which they won't be upset about.

I also suspect GWS through the media are appeasing the AFL who want them to become competitive sooner rather than later by offering early picks for ready-made players.

I continually use your mock drafts as a reference guide and I'd like to know what your opinion on the progress of a few of our picks from the last few drafts as I value your opinion highly. Specifically the level of player young Newnes, Ross, Webster, Wright, White, Murdoch and Saunders become? Just briefly not to waste too much of your time. Cheers.

GWS will certainly want major currency for that no.1 overall selection. And I can't help thinking that a club - yet to be known will pay this required currency. I'd probably say Gold Coast are best positioned with Swallow, Gorringe, Day and any number of picks the types of assets Gold Coast could pretty easily throw at that no.1 overall selection without losing any sleep. It won't be all those assets but throw Swallow at GWS with a small pick upgrade and GWS will listen very seriously I can only imagine.

Newnes - A clear best 22 guy and a guy who can contribute. Can go on and have a 10 year career and be good for 20 disposals per game.

Ross - Probably that one midfielder I look at and see star potential in of this group long term. I think he can become a B-grader with time and becoming an A-grader isn't totally beyond him. If things go right he can be a damaging 25 disposal per game midfielder but that's another 3-4 years off and it's still more a possibility than what I expect.

Webster - Not completely convinced Webster makes the grade yet though he still has that opportunity and plenty of time. Uses it very well but just feels on that fringe for me of what I'd be looking for.

Wright - Other than Ross, Wright is that other guy I really like of this group. I saw him as a sure thing coming into this draft and I'm just as convinced having seen him play this season. He can develop into a B-grader.

White - High upside and can become as good as he wants to. So early into his career to know just how good he can become but I think he'll be a beauty with his athleticism special. On the St Kilda list he's the only young KPP I regard as AFL quality and clear AFL quality.

Murdoch - Another who can make the grade. I don't expect he'll develop into a star but he is a guy who can go on and have a 10 year career if things go right.

Saunders - Another who can go on to have a long career. Given his recent improvement I suspect he has plenty of further footballing growth. If things go right may become a B-grader.

To order them:
-- (Worth top 20 picks)
1. Spencer White (I like my quality KPPs)
2. Sebastian Ross
3. Nathan Wright
-- (Worth top 25 picks)
4. Jack Newnes
5. Brodie Murdoch
6. Josh Saunders
-- (Wouldn't throw major currency at but could be worth a 3rd round selection to someone. Perhaps WBD)
7. Jimmy Webster

It's largely a group with the potential to go well but still more years in the system needed until they really establish themselves in a big way and become as good as they project at this point.

I'm glad you didn't ask me about Lee + Hickey or my review wouldn't be so positive..

 

[Knightmare]

So it's pretty thin in the draft then Hourigan, not really what we are looking for he's more of a forward right? We have Membrey. Would be interested in Keefe remember him playing really well on a couple of power forwards prior to doing his knee

Hourigan has played some key defence in past years so it is an option with key defenders not necessarily needing to be as tall. But his game does remind me of Membrey though perhaps a 2-3cm taller Membrey.

Not sure Im in love with your revised list KM , all the ones I like have gone Bontempelli, Salam , KK ..

If we pick Lewis Taylor it would be a drastic point of difference to what Wells has done in the past. He looks a nice sort of player but he appears to lack penetration on his kicks.Very neat though. Does he mark over head? Very different to the norm for SW. On paper Acres looks more Wells but we will see I suppose.


Cutter , is he a KB? @ 190 is he a key position player? Can not visualise him so he could be a gun for all in know.

We can't let Geelong win another draft now

Geelong enjoy value and needing more midfield help I do see Taylor as a fit if available as there aren't too many other smalls.

Acres is one I could see Geelong looking at very closely and he was that other one I was strongly considering for that selection but I just didn't want Taylor to drop any further.

Cutler is more a rebounding tall defender who could be more your third tall. Plays a similar brand of footy to Cale Hooker, albeit a shorter version. It's a year where if you don't have a pick high enough to get Cutler the best option is trading for an underutilised key defender.

 

[Steves]

I just giggled when I read the first page. So, so far off the mark.

 

[riolimagic]

is Luke hodges brother still playing footy

 

[JOELY]

I just giggled when I read the first page. So, so far off the mark.

care to give a quick mock? genuinely interested, the more the merrier.

 

[tigs2010]

I just giggled when I read the first page. So, so far off the mark.

How can you be off the mark in an opinion? Don't think Knightmare has ever declared they're 100% going to go in that order. Just HISpersonal ranking and where HE'd take them from what HE's seen.

 

[Defacto]

great to see george hampson make your list. not sure he is a DEF though, more FWD if anything. has played back a fair bit and turned games though

 

[jesterwester]

I'd strongly recommend taking a look at Freeman at 8. Just think of him as another Shuey though I see him as a slightly better user of the footy and a better decision maker. I'm just not hearing as much interest from clubs with most rating him more as a 10-20 prospect which is why I suspect WCE might instead look at a Lewis Taylor or Kade Kolodjashnij or even a Darcy Gardiner if worried about Mitch Brown leaving.

In any case WCE need much more pace. Inside and outside the contest and I'm sure a number of those selections will be looking at guys who can better take advantage of that long oval you've got out West with some real running power.

Thanks km, appreciate the input.

West coast have traditionally gone the "safe" option in relation to 1st round picks of late (i.e shepherd over jetta in 2009/Masten over palmer 2007 etc) so would not be surprised to see sheed head our way if still available at our pick..
It will be interesting to see how freeman goes in the combine. That may see him jump up a bit if he tests well.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Thanks km, appreciate the input.

West coast have traditionally gone the "safe" option in relation to 1st round picks of late (i.e shepherd over jetta in 2009/Masten over palmer 2007 etc) so would not be surprised to see sheed head our way if still available at our pick..
It will be interesting to see how freeman goes in the combine. That may see him jump up a bit if he tests well.

I think we'll have one of Lennon, Sheed or Acres in the first round.

The ability to pick up a Cripps or Robertson might determine who we go after in the first round. If we're positive we can get one of them we might bypass Sheed if he's still available.

 

[Rancid Trogs]

Heppell is a good player with some upside BUT is no Pendelbury, who is an absolute champion.

Heppell's physical stature, movement style and playing style all closely match Pendlebury's. And at the same points in their respective careers, their stats match up nicely. While Pendles is currently a long way ahead of Heppell, he is also 3 years ahead of him. Give Heppell 3 years and you may find the comparison much closer.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

GWS will certainly want major currency for that no.1 overall selection. And I can't help thinking that a club - yet to be known will pay this required currency. I'd probably say Gold Coast are best positioned with Swallow, Gorringe, Day and any number of picks the types of assets Gold Coast could pretty easily throw at that no.1 overall selection without losing any sleep. It won't be all those assets but throw Swallow at GWS with a small pick upgrade and GWS will listen very seriously I can only imagine.

Newnes - A clear best 22 guy and a guy who can contribute. Can go on and have a 10 year career and be good for 20 disposals per game.

Ross - Probably that one midfielder I look at and see star potential in of this group long term. I think he can become a B-grader with time and becoming an A-grader isn't totally beyond him. If things go right he can be a damaging 25 disposal per game midfielder but that's another 3-4 years off and it's still more a possibility than what I expect.

Webster - Not completely convinced Webster makes the grade yet though he still has that opportunity and plenty of time. Uses it very well but just feels on that fringe for me of what I'd be looking for.

Wright - Other than Ross, Wright is that other guy I really like of this group. I saw him as a sure thing coming into this draft and I'm just as convinced having seen him play this season. He can develop into a B-grader.

White - High upside and can become as good as he wants to. So early into his career to know just how good he can become but I think he'll be a beauty with his athleticism special. On the St Kilda list he's the only young KPP I regard as AFL quality and clear AFL quality.

Murdoch - Another who can make the grade. I don't expect he'll develop into a star but he is a guy who can go on and have a 10 year career if things go right.

Saunders - Another who can go on to have a long career. Given his recent improvement I suspect he has plenty of further footballing growth. If things go right may become a B-grader.

To order them:
-- (Worth top 20 picks)
1. Spencer White (I like my quality KPPs)
2. Sebastian Ross
3. Nathan Wright
-- (Worth top 25 picks)
4. Jack Newnes
5. Brodie Murdoch
6. Josh Saunders
-- (Wouldn't throw major currency at but could be worth a 3rd round selection to someone. Perhaps WBD)
7. Jimmy Webster

It's largely a group with the potential to go well but still more years in the system needed until they really establish themselves in a big way and become as good as they project at this point.

I'm glad you didn't ask me about Lee + Hickey or my review wouldn't be so positive..

Thanks for such a thorough response KM very much appreciated.

I'm pleasantly surprised by your positive assessments of our young group considering they were all picked outside the top 20 and the majority outside the top 35. I'd like to think our recruiters and development coaches are getting it right I know those have been areas of focus since Watters has come to the club (and Chris Pelchen).

Even know I share your optimism for St Kilda's picks over the last two drafts I believe we are missing that star quality and the before mentioned are very good support acts but not those types to build the 22 around. The next 3 drafts will likely include top 1-3 picks and those selections will be vitally important.

Interestingly there's a good chance those kids mentioned wouldn't have been selected if the Lee and Hickey trades didn't occur given the picks we received as part of those deals. Wright, White, Saunders and Murdoch all part of those deals. I'll wait until a few years of seeing how the selections around and after 12 and 13 (especially Grundy) go before passing too much judgement!

Cheers again.

 

[tigs2010]

Thanks for such a thorough response KM very much appreciated.

I'm pleasantly surprised by your positive assessments of our young group considering they were all picked outside the top 20 and the majority outside the top 35. I'd like to think our recruiters and development coaches are getting it right I know those have been areas of focus since Watters has come to the club (and Chris Pelchen).

Even know I share your optimism for St Kilda's picks over the last two drafts I believe we are missing that star quality and the before mentioned are very good support acts but not those types to build the 22 around. The next 3 drafts will likely include top 1-3 picks and those selections will be vitally important.

Interestingly there's a good chance those kids mentioned wouldn't have been selected if the Lee and Hickey trades didn't occur given the picks we received as part of those deals. Wright, White, Saunders and Murdoch all part of those deals. I'll wait until a few years of seeing how the selections around and after 12 and 13 (especially Grundy) go before passing too much judgement!

Cheers again.

Tough when you either trade down in the first round or trade out of it into the second. As you said the next few drafts you'll have the top picks to get your star power from.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for such a thorough response KM very much appreciated.

I'm pleasantly surprised by your positive assessments of our young group considering they were all picked outside the top 20 and the majority outside the top 35. I'd like to think our recruiters and development coaches are getting it right I know those have been areas of focus since Watters has come to the club (and Chris Pelchen).

Even know I share your optimism for St Kilda's picks over the last two drafts I believe we are missing that star quality and the before mentioned are very good support acts but not those types to build the 22 around. The next 3 drafts will likely include top 1-3 picks and those selections will be vitally important.

Interestingly there's a good chance those kids mentioned wouldn't have been selected if the Lee and Hickey trades didn't occur given the picks we received as part of those deals. Wright, White, Saunders and Murdoch all part of those deals. I'll wait until a few years of seeing how the selections around and after 12 and 13 (especially Grundy) go before passing too much judgement!

Cheers again.

That group you mentioned are the part of the St Kilda group that I do like. They're just not elite talents and St Kilda will need to injury a lot of top end talent to really become relevant which will take time. But other than that mess of a trade week which I still don't like from last year for St Kilda you're moving in the right direction with some reasonable selections starting to come through with a number of those going better than I initially expected.

is Luke hodges brother still playing footy

He may be but I'm not yet familiar with his game anyone so I'll leave that one for someone who's seen him.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

Tough when you either trade down in the first round or trade out of it into the second. As you said the next few drafts you'll have the top picks to get your star power from.

From what I've heard St Kilda's recruiters rated last years draft quite shallow as far as elite talent went and were happy to part with picks 12 and 13 expecting the available players around those selections to be similar to those available around where we traded down to (and obviously acquired Lee and Hickey in the deals which made the decision easier filling two needs - ruck and tall forward depth).

Another point worth noting, is given where the list was and is as far as age demographic goes it was important to bring in players around that 21 year old mark as well as those straight out of junior footy.

St Kilda's list is in an extremely poor position and the club knows it and as a fan I know it and I'm not expecting the list to get to where it needs to be within 1-2 drafts. It'll take time. I believe last years draft (and the year before) needed to happen where we traded down giving us a wider selection of top 40 talent instead of only a couple in that range and the rest late selections.

 

[TheLastEmperor]

That group you mentioned are the part of the St Kilda group that I do like. They're just not elite talents and St Kilda will need to injury a lot of top end talent to really become relevant which will take time. But other than that mess of a trade week which I still don't like from last year for St Kilda you're moving in the right direction with some reasonable selections starting to come through with a number of those going better than I initially expected.

Pretty much on the same page KM although I rate a few others who with some star talent playing with them can become longterm and valuable best 22 players. I'm talking about players such as Steven, Armitage, McEvoy, Stanley, Roberton, Sippos and Saad - and Hickey and Lee

 

[tigs2010]

From what I've heard St Kilda's recruiters rated last years draft quite shallow as far as elite talent went and were happy to part with picks 12 and 13 expecting the available players around those selections to be similar to those available around where we traded down to (and obviously acquired Lee and Hickey in the deals which made the decision easier filling two needs - ruck and tall forward depth).

Another point worth noting, is given where the list was and is as far as age demographic goes it was important to bring in players around that 21 year old mark as well as those straight out of junior footy.

St Kilda's list is in an extremely poor position and the club knows it and as a fan I know it and I'm not expecting the list to get to where it needs to be within 1-2 drafts. It'll take time. I believe last years draft (and the year before) needed to happen where we traded down giving us a wider selection of top 40 talent instead of only a couple in that range and the rest late selections.

Sorry wasn't having a go at the decisions to make those trades. Just saying it's hard to draft stars with those picks. Sometimes they will become stars but they are usually the later developing ones. The stars will (hopefully) come in these next few drafts.

 

[manny100]

I am beginning to think that the Boyd hype/worth is getting a little out of control. Trades talked about will just about equal the Judd Carlton trade. Judd was already a GUN+, young, proven match winner, Brownlow medallist and a premiership player (captain??). There is not sure thing that Boyd will not take 3, 4 or 5 years to come on like Hawkins or Watts? What established clubs will want to offer in terms of players are likely to be considered 'glass beads' or 'trinkets' by GWS.
As KM said if a deal is done it is likely to be with GC as GC are the only club who can pay big without severely damaging the list balance. McEvoy for example is touted as a future club captain and potential 250 gamer and has already completed his apprenticeship. So if I were the Saints GWS would not get much more than McEvoy. However if the Saints give up to much they may well be a shoe in for the first pick in 2014.
The last first pick trade was for McPharlin who was young homesick and had been injury prone to that point and Croad who had not lived up to previous form. McPharlin turned out to be a very good player but the Hawks also got some other draft picks.
Anyway the point is that GWS are very lucky they have another new club to deal with.

 

[Zach Package]

I am beginning to think that the Boyd hype/worth is getting a little out of control. Trades talked about will just about equal the Judd Carlton trade. Judd was already a GUN+, young, proven match winner, Brownlow medallist and a premiership player (captain??). There is not sure thing that Boyd will not take 3, 4 or 5 years to come on like Hawkins or Watts? What established clubs will want to offer in terms of players are likely to be considered 'glass beads' or 'trinkets' by GWS.

It's definitely getting out of hand. I've heard someone suggest that we trade Hooker, Bellchambers and Crameri for him

That's more than enough to get him, but it's an awful trade for us, he's basically being built up as that absolute Lebron James-esque (different sport, still an appropriate example) lock to be an all time great, which I don't think he is.

 

[tigs2010]

It's definitely getting out of hand. I've heard someone suggest that we trade Hooker, Bellchambers and Crameri for him

That's more than enough to get him, but it's an awful trade for us, he's basically being built up as that absolute Lebron James-esque (different sport, still an appropriate example) lock to be an all time great, which I don't think he is.

Chuck in Jobe and Heppell and they might consider it.