Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2013 phantom draft

[tigs2010]

Even though it is very early KM, my view is that you have included way too many outside TAC Cup players who just aren't powerful enough. Think there will be quite a few changes to your list post national champs.

They are the types that catch the eye as underage players though. Next year they'll have more focus on them and some will slide down his order.

 

[U Little Beauty]

have you seen much of Nathan Drummond (Murray Bushrangers), Nick Holman (Murray Bushrangers), Julian Soccio (Northern Knights), Callum Cathcart (Sandringham Dragons) ?

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

I'd like to see McDonald win more of his own ball and develop a stronger inside game. He is incredibly effective down back, on a forward flank or on a wing with his damaging footskills and pace but at this point he is more an outside type and if he can develop that inside game and really build that into something that can stand up at the next level, then he is really something. I'm not convinced that inside game will become a feature of his game, I think he could become a part time onballer but at this stage I see him more as a super damaging tall utility who might be able to play for periods on the ball without being that primary hard inside ball winner.

You don't plough a field with a Ferrari.

He won't be "inside" like Sam Mitchell. He'll be more of a Judd/Pendlebury type.

 

[Yoda_]

They are the types that catch the eye as underage players though. Next year they'll have more focus on them and some will slide down his order.

You want an inside underage type for 2013?

Keep an eye on Dandenong Stingray Nathan Foote who was excellent at extracting the ball out to his team mates. Could use some polish but seems a likely type.

 

[Knightmare]

have you seen much of Nathan Drummond (Murray Bushrangers), Nick Holman (Murray Bushrangers), Julian Soccio (Northern Knights), Callum Cathcart (Sandringham Dragons) ?

Nick Holman I haven't seen. Has he played any TAC?

Drummond, Cathcart and Soccio I've seen bits of but as with all players I'd like to see them in 2013.

Drummond and Cathcart have caught my eye and are two I have on my watchlist for this year.

Drummond is probably the better performed to this point and Cathcart with what he has shown up forward could also be interesting to watch if he can take another step forward this coming year.

You don't plough a field with a Ferrari.

He won't be "inside" like Sam Mitchell. He'll be more of a Judd/Pendlebury type.

I don't see McDonald's game developing into anything close to Judd/Pendlebury and certainly not Mitchell either, he doesn't resemble any of these. All are exceptional inside players. I don't see that at all with McDonald.

McDonald is only a possible where he might play some inside but likely stays more outside with that being more his strength until he has developed that inside game which he may/may not develop in which case he could play some, but not all inside like those others you mentiond.

For me with McDonald a best case scenario is something like Goddard where he has hopefully develops that ability to play some inside and win his own ball but then also be a quality outside type.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare

Talking about 2014 prospects, young Stingray Alex Harnett is certainly one to keep an eye out for! At 179cm (at 16) he has growing to do but at such an early age completely overlooked under 16's to play seniors at Mpnfl premiers Frankston YCW and eventually debut for the stingrays (actually in the same game I managed to see the underwhelming Hugh Goddard).

Inside/Outside midfielder who is terrific overhead for someone his height and isn't afraid to stick his head over, a little bit of polish and you certainly have an eye on the kid for the early stages for 2014.



Also NSW scholarship player Jedda Clothier is available for Essendon in 2014 and seems a very likely type at 187cm (key forward at under 18/NSW seniors lever - /inside midfielder at championships level).

And while we are on scholarship types, Essendon have a young Van Der Haar who Humble Minion tracks for an Essendon specific website with all our F/S - Scholarship kids and says he is a very likely type, also available in 2014 (if I recall correctly).

You're right on Harnett. He is one to watch for 2014 and is one of those more highly rated prospects at this point so it will be interesting to see how his development continues.

Jedda Clothier I'm not familiar with.

Todd Van Der Harr I've heard about without seeing and I think Jake Long will also be 2014 eligable. Pretty sure Jake goes to Scotch College so he is another you probably want to watch for from an Essendon perspective.

Any info on any of these boys is always welcome from either yourself Humble Minion and always makes for good reading.

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

KM, I can understand you thinking that way based on this years football as Luke played as a zoning lockdown defender for most of 2012.

The great ability of Pendlebury/Judd types is that they can hit the contest at full pace without getting in to a scrimmage.

Luke has that ability. He is a lot quicker and better in close than Goddard.

 

[Knightmare]

KM, I can understand you thinking that way based on this years football as Luke played as a zoning lockdown defender for most of 2012.

The great ability of Pendlebury/Judd types is that they can hit the contest at full pace without getting in to a scrimmage.

Luke has that ability. He is a lot quicker and better in close than Goddard.

You are correct that Luke has mostly played in the back half this year and this is how I have seen him.

Just until I see that ability through the midfield he is more Bryce Gibbs or Brendan Goddard than Judd or Pendlebury.

But perhaps with more midfield minutes this year he can prove me wrong and I'll leave my evaluation of his ability through the midfield for this year when I see him receive more opportunities through there.

 

[Hard_to_Beat]

You are correct that Luke has mostly played in the back half this year and this is how I have seen him.

Just until I see that ability through the midfield he is more Bryce Gibbs or Brendan Goddard than Judd or Pendlebury.

But perhaps with more midfield minutes this year he can prove me wrong and I'll leave my evaluation of his ability through the midfield for this year when I see him receive more opportunities through there.

I doubt that will happen in the VFL. Best to wait for the U/18 carnival.

http://www.starnewsgroup.com.au/star/williamstown-altona-laverton/377/story/156193.html

 

[SchuPie]

KM - assuming Pies make top, that will give them pick 15(+)

My feeling is that we need to develop the below.
Who do you think at this early point would be the best available:
i) ~185cm inside mid
ii) ~190cm half back / mid
...or are we going to need sliders to really fit the bill?

 

[Knightmare]

KM - assuming Pies make top, that will give them pick 15(+)

My feeling is that we need to develop the below.
Who do you think at this early point would be the best available:
i) ~185cm inside mid
ii) ~190cm half back / mid
...or are we going to need sliders to really fit the bill?

I agree with what you consider our needs. Another high level key forward would also be nice, perhaps an outside speedster as we are a more even paced team without that genuine linebreaker but that real inside extractor if practical would be exceptionally high on my needs list as would a rebounding back flanker depending on how Jordan Russell goes, but even if he does well I'd still look to bring someone else in.

As an inside mid I'd be hoping Matt Crouch slides. I get the sense some are over-valuing his talents and if a few other inside mids develop then he could slide. While a long way out and unfair to judge his likely range I see him as a probable late first rounder depite how people are talking about him so he is a guy who could very well be available. He's that real inside extractor you look at and think "this guy is a perfect fit" and he is a guy who could take over from Ball in the future.
Trent Dumont might be that other inside midfield option in that first round range and is an exceptionally powerful unit who also has that proven production behind him. Might be optimistic to hope that he is available but we'll see what happens next year and he is another I'd consider though I rate him slightly less high as I see Crouch a touch better as a natural clearance guy even as a slightly smaller guy but also Dumont can lack consistency by foot and really needs to clean that up.

Luke Reynolds while not a pure backman is one I'd consider recruiting as a back flanker for the Pies. Has some versatility but then the long kick and some ability overhead which appeals. Every chance that he is available.
Matt Scharenberg as a backman is also highly rated as that defender after an excellent 2012 but is being spoken about as a probable top 10 selection at this stage if the draft was held now but may/may not slide. Like Dumont I'm not a fan of his footskills and again it lacks consistency but maybe this develops.

There will always be options wherever you are selecting. At this stage it's just about having some names to look at for the season but if I had to pick a guy who I see as a really nice fit in a needs sense Crouch is that ideal first round selection. He may not be available but with some others to develop and a group probably a touch more talented he'd be what I'd be looking at if the draft was held tomorrow. Then that backman perhaps later in the draft looking for a someone with real pace and quality footskills whether it be tall or small I don't much mind as long as they add they can generate some meaningful drive.

 

[SchuPie]

I agree with what you consider our needs. Another high level key forward would also be nice, perhaps an outside speedster as we are a more even paced team without that genuine linebreaker but that real inside extractor if practical would be exceptionally high on my needs list as would a rebounding back flanker depending on how Jordan Russell goes, but even if he does well I'd still look to bring someone else in.

Thanks KM

Im glad you also posted about desire for a KPF before Moore arrives.
i'm also wanting another KPD but I'm guessing the club believes that Gault/Paine and maybe even Richmond/Hartley/Frost will fill our needs forward and back[/quote]

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks KM

Im glad you also posted about desire for a KPF before Moore arrives.
i'm also wanting another KPD but I'm guessing the club believes that Gault/Paine and maybe even Richmond/Hartley/Frost will fill our needs forward and back

I see Hartley and Frost more as key defenders.

Then Reid and Keeffe are much, much stronger down back than as forwards. Brown also better as a defender than a forward.

Lynch probably has two years left then it's just Cloke, Paine (who may settle as more of a 3rd tall - think Darling in the same team with Lynch/Kennedy/Cox/Naitanui last year but could equally become that second key forward with the way he was presenting at times this year). Richmond is a project who is an outside chance to make it so until he develops into something, he hasn't then Gault is more of a no.2 ruckman but can play back or forward as required very capably and it is a consideration for depth reasons if required down the track. Moore if/when he comes to the club probably isn't a round one impact guy and while it's projecting too far ahead it can be assumed with key position players that it usually takes a minimum of two years, but usually 3-4 to really develop into something. So I do think more is needed to add another high level key forward in addition to Moore at some point. Maybe another veteran free agent in a similar way to Lynch. Maybe something else perhaps through trade or draft depending on what possibilities are there.

Cloke can play till around 32-34 if he wants to but the problem is in a similar way to the Rocca/Cloke partnership that they only really had the one year together where they were both productive (07) - as Rocca's last healthy season and Cloke's first productive season so the Cloke/Moore partnership needs to be looked in a similar way with the age differences similar so in an ideal world we would have another a genuine quality key forward both who can play two years down the track (post Lynch - maybe this is Paine, maybe someone else) and then another one again post Cloke let's say 6-7 years down the track (but if a draft prospect then then you probably want to get someone else in 3-4 years earlier to have them developing).
Perhaps Paine can be this second key forward in both scenarios, he is AFL quality in my mind but it just comes down to whether we look at him more as a key forward or 3rd tall and what we feel would be the better setup next to Cloke and later hopefully Moore if he develops as we hope.

The key with talls is not how many you have on your list, but how good they are and it's really about finding those absolutely highest quality talls at each key position and think of it as a way to generate the greatest possible advantage being some of the positions where players can have potentially if elite talents the ability to influence a game best. A similar theory could be used with mids because they are around the ball so much but with those smalls more interchangable it's that bit more important with the talls as well as the harder to find factor.

Gault is fine as depth and Paine can step in and play as a key forward and probably Grundy also. It's really about when possible finding a near franchise key forward or a major difference maker who can really take over games on their day. So it's really first round, or a high level trade week/free agent or stick with what we have at present with Cloke/Lynch/Paine/Gault/Grundy then Moore which is absolutely fine with that whole group in my mind AFL standard or to develop into AFL standard with Moore but as with every club you'd always love that one extra elite key forward and it should absolutely be on our radar for if a possibility comes up but until it is it's clear there is a key forward who can seriously elevate our team it's best to stick to drafting mids/other positions until that time presents.

 

[Humble Minion]

Knightmare
Also NSW scholarship player Jedda Clothier is available for Essendon in 2014 and seems a very likely type at 187cm (key forward at under 18/NSW seniors lever - /inside midfielder at championships level).

And while we are on scholarship types, Essendon have a young Van Der Haar who Humble Minion tracks for an Essendon specific website with all our F/S - Scholarship kids and says he is a very likely type, also available in 2014 (if I recall correctly).

I've never seen Vander Haar play or even heard any reliable second-hand reports about him - mind you, he's spent most of the last 2 years injured, so not a surprise there. I know the club has its eye on him, but the club has had their eyes on a lot of f/s kids who didn't get drafted over the past few years. Time will tell. He is eligible for the 2013 draft though.

Clothier I've liked the look of the little I've seen of him, but I've heard mixed reports about how he's viewed from inside the footy industry. Played mostly as a med fwd this year afaik, but I reckon to really have a shot at it he'll have to become a full-time midfielder. Which is far from impossible.

 

[Humble Minion]

The Falcons have a strong group next year and I'm expecting plenty to get drafted.

Watch out for: Lewis Taylor, Aaron Christensen, James Tsitas, Nicholas Bourke, Darcy Gardiner and Fraser Fort.

Fort, Tsitas and Bourke are three very solid prospects.

Taylor is a great little players and is a pretty good shot at becoming 2013s edition of what I think of as the token short bloke who gets taken early. A la Prestia in 2010, Devon Smith in 2011, Hrovat in 2012 - it seems that one goes each year while most of the rest of the sub-175cm brigade get completely overlooked.

Christiansen is small and just plain horrifyingly skinny. Below 60kg if I remember right(!) Will be a big worry unless he stacks on beef in a big hurry - not many blokes get drafted with that sort of physique - they can't even stand up to VFL physicality, let along AFL.

 

[Knightmare]

Christiansen is small and just plain horrifyingly skinny. Below 60kg if I remember right(!) Will be a big worry unless he stacks on beef in a big hurry - not many blokes get drafted with that sort of physique - they can't even stand up to VFL physicality, let along AFL.

Christensen is a curious one and you are right on all points. He is exceptionally thin and clubs mostly won't like this but I'm not so turned off by it and if he continues to improve as he did last year I'd be willing to look at him as an option if I saw a role for him on my team.

At his weight I see him as something similar to Brad Dick who when healthy has been an effective energy tackler and goal sneak or alternatively could play an outside role. Dale Thomas despite his initially incredibly lean physique was able to show flashes of something right away. Then Jesse Crichton and Nathan Krakouer are some more recent very thin ones and I see no reason why Christensen can't with time put some weight on as these have even if he always remains lean. So I don't see this as a complete limitation.

It seems in all sports these days there are some incredible players with slight builds. Dustin Fletcher has been incredible for such a long time and has found an alternative way to play where it doesn't matter. Kevin Durant in the NBA in a similar way to Fletcher also finds his own way to despite having that super lean build really influence games in different ways and be that really dominant player of the competition. So I'm not going to disqualify anyone based on build although it will always have to be a consideration when recruiting specific types knowing that particular body types typically are more effective for particular roles or positions.

 

[U Little Beauty]

Nick Holman I haven't seen. Has he played any TAC?

yeah he's played some Tac Cup games, i'm sure how many though.

I watched him play earlier in the season and thought he could be one to keep an eye on this year. I have a limited opinion on him because I've only seen him play once, but for memory he's a lightly built left footer, with good pace and agility.

 

[KJpie]

I see Hartley and Frost more as key defenders.

.

KM, Do you think Hartley has the quality to make the grade and if so how will he make the senior side as there are so many Key Back's before him both short and long term?

 

[Knightmare]

yeah he's played some Tac Cup games, i'm sure how many though.

I watched him play earlier in the season and thought he could be one to keep an eye on this year. I have a limited opinion on him because I've only seen him play once, but for memory he's a lightly built left footer, with good pace and agility.

I'll keep an eye out for him this year.

KM, Do you think Hartley has the quality to make the grade and if so how will he make the senior side as there are so many Key Back's before him both short and long term?

He has the potential to make it but the issue is who does he pass? Reid, Keeffe and Brown are now all established AFL quality key defenders so it won't be easy for Frost or Hartley even if their development goes to plan and both are depth until they go past one of these.

Hartley is a Presti type but having missed this year with injury it puts him back in the plans some and that year behind in his development which isn't ideal so he'd want to make strong progress in 2013 because with the way Collingwood turn over that rookie list no guarantee he is retained.

In any case he'll need time and I can't see him playing senior footy next year with Frost the more likely if one of those rookie key defenders plays in the scenario injury hits one of those established key defenders.

 

[SchuPie]

As an inside mid I'd be hoping Matt Crouch slides. I get the sense some are over-valuing his talents and if a few other inside mids develop then he could slide. While a long way out and unfair to judge his likely range I see him as a probable late first rounder depite how people are talking about him so he is a guy who could very well be available. He's that real inside extractor you look at and think "this guy is a perfect fit" and he is a guy who could take over from Ball in the future.
Trent Dumont might be that other inside midfield option in that first round range and is an exceptionally powerful unit who also has that proven production behind him. Might be optimistic to hope that he is available but we'll see what happens next year and he is another I'd consider though I rate him slightly less high as I see Crouch a touch better as a natural clearance guy even as a slightly smaller guy but also Dumont can lack consistency by foot and really needs to clean that up.

KM - yep, would love a Josh Simpson type as well

Just on our trading over the past couple years - I have no concern with the team giving up first round picks however I'd like to get your thoughts on:
We have taded first round picks for:
- Krakouer / Ceglar
- Elliott / Clarke
We've also drafted in Sinclair + Kennedy --- it seems a lot of picks to try to find a dangerous half forward (with mid capabilities) - as well as steak knives
Wondering if best ploy if they dont think a forward will be at their pick to give up "a little more" and secure one from around the clubs that they really rate? (I dont really count Kennedy here as i think he may end up a jet)

If the Pies really needed , for example, a hard-at-it inside mid, i'd rather trade our first 2 (even 3!) picks for someone like Lonergan or similar (not saying he will want to come home) - if he proves himself - to get the exact type of player they want rather than "he'll do" or "hoping" for something good enough in the 2013/2014 drafts...or is this being too harsh?

 

[Knightmare]

KM - yep, would love a Josh Simpson type as well

Just on our trading over the past couple years - I have no concern with the team giving up first round picks however I'd like to get your thoughts on:
We have taded first round picks for:
- Krakouer / Ceglar
- Elliott / Clarke
We've also drafted in Sinclair + Kennedy --- it seems a lot of picks to try to find a dangerous half forward (with mid capabilities) - as well as steak knives
Wondering if best ploy if they dont think a forward will be at their pick to give up "a little more" and secure one from around the clubs that they really rate? (I dont really count Kennedy here as i think he may end up a jet)

If the Pies really needed , for example, a hard-at-it inside mid, i'd rather trade our first 2 (even 3!) picks for someone like Lonergan or similar (not saying he will want to come home) - if he proves himself - to get the exact type of player they want rather than "he'll do" or "hoping" for something good enough in the 2013/2014 drafts...or is this being too harsh?

I'm at the stage where I just don't see a need for another general forward (small/medium). We've drafted that type pretty heavily these past season so no need to get another unless we identify a special talent we consider that next Cyril Rioli or Steve Johnson where they are just that much better than what we already have.

You mention Sinclair but he was drafted as a midfielder. Buckley only this year moved him forward and it's probably his better position because his skills probably aren't good enough up the field but near goal it doesn't matter so much as more that pressure player who can more just finish around goal as opposed to finding those targets by foot.

At the time of the trades I was never super keen on the moves of Krakouer/Ceglar or Elliott/Clarke and at the time would have instead taken Kieran Harper and Sebastian Ross through the draft in those years respectively at the time. The theory with those moves was always to address needs before the draft so that we could go into the drafts and pick best available so it was not terrible by any means and the feeling I get was that Collingwood rated Elliott in particular unfathomably high in his draft year. Neither were bad trades as we've got some games out of Krakouer and Elliott is showing promise but neither were particularly excellent trades either so at this stage we have probably broken even with both trades as pick 25s are never guaranteed to succeed.

I don't see us targetting any more of those small/medium forwards. We've been taking them the past three years which is plenty and I think other regions of the ground can do with a boost first. The forwardline was certainly a relative weak point in 2012 for Collingwood, no doubt with the combination of poor kicking into the forward 50 then limited targets really providing anything but with so many forwards now and with that whole group young, they'll improve as the midfield delivery improves so I'm not too concerned with the deep midfield group and many of those also capable when rotating forward with Swan, Beams and Ball in particular very underrated as a forward. Perhaps at some stage we offload a couple of these forwards to another club but I have my doubts they'll receive major currency - then Fasolo and probably Kennedy of that group would be my untouchables who can take their games as far as they want.

I think Lonergan will establish himself pretty quickly for Gold Coast and I think he'll pretty quickly take over from Josh Caddy as that strong inside midfielder. I think in a couple of seasons he could be one of their untouchables. As a Tasmanian I'm not so sure he'll feel that go home factor, and if anything he'll probably enjoy the weather up there and find he wants to play his career there.

For inside midfielders I'd go through the draft. We have had success drafting midfielders in the past so no reason why we can't continue this. It's just too costly to trade for quality inside midfielders and few clubs want to lose these types anyway. Perhaps a Brock McLean type without being Brock McLean specifically may come available as a free agent down the track (post Swan/Ball) which could be the other alternative but I'm pretty confident we can draft our own powerful midfielder with play alongside our younger, more finnesse mids.

 

[Bardo State]

Just like to add that in addition to Kurt Heatherly, Hawthorn has committed to taking another NZ player in Shem Tatupu

 

[nofearbrowny]

have you seen much of Nathan Drummond (Murray Bushrangers), Nick Holman (Murray Bushrangers), Julian Soccio (Northern Knights), Callum Cathcart (Sandringham Dragons) ?

Another couple of bushrangers to look at are Kieran Ellis and Michael gibbons ,these two were the best performed for bushes last year as 17 year olds. Gibbons just missed B& F

 

[bumsonseats]

Gday KM.......love your work as always.
What do you know about the second Kiwi kid (Shem Tatupu) that the Hawks have committed to.

A few bits and pieces on the Hawks pages, but I dont think anyone really knows that much about him.....
Is he a forward or a backman......maybe even ruck
How mobile is he, and what is his skill level like.
Where has he been playing

Ta

 

[Knightmare]

Gday KM.......love your work as always.
What do you know about the second Kiwi kid (Shem Tatupu) that the Hawks have committed to.

A few bits and pieces on the Hawks pages, but I dont think anyone really knows that much about him.....
Is he a forward or a backman......maybe even ruck
How mobile is he, and what is his skill level like.
Where has he been playing

Ta

I'm not even sure I've seen him play yet. Did he play TAC last year?

My sense is that Tatupu is very raw. From the sounds of things reasonably athletic at his size and with that exceptionally strong rugby type build probably capable of doing some damage once fully developed but more someone Hawthorn is taking because of the new rookie rules that allow for those international rookies as opposed to Heatherley who is a good enough footballer to get drafted in his own right through his on field performances.

I can't imagine Tatupu's skills would be anything incredible at this point and he'll need a good 3 years in the system before he has the chance to become AFL relevant since he probably has played very little football. He can probably tackle and do some damage in that respect but I expect pretty much everything else to be a work in progress.

For the rugby converts I find they struggle reading the ball into the forward and in the air - you only have to look at Isreal Folau and his struggles and I've seen similar with Jarrod Witts at Collingwood also not knowing how to get front position or read it in. I recommend Hawthorn look at Tatupu as a potential strong bodied defender who can take those monster forwards given his size and physical attributes. Get him to buddy up with Brian Lake if he's still around and see what he can learn and just be patient with the guy.