Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

With everything that has transpired today making the loss of our first and second round official aswell as the inability to pick up gorringe, this surely means port will pick up two of pittonet/read/baulderstone just wanted to get your opinion on this and if there anymore ruck/forwards whether they are mature or not who are a legitimate chance to get drafter?

Port needing more ruckmen?

Ryder is terrific. Add him to Lobbe and Redden and Port Adelaide are well positioned going into next season.

Gorringe next year probably wants to join Port Adelaide so I wouldn't be rushing to add further ruckmen with Ryder pretty well filling that need.

But sure, if Port Adelaide see long term potential in one, then as a rookie it may as well be a consideration if there are no other options that appeal.

But I'd be looking to further add to that Port Adelaide midfield. Maybe Matthew Panos could be a consideration as an example. Or otherwise the may be some other midfielder who slides.

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

@gezim87 Correct, Gezim. Only slid 10 live picks in Jaksch deal. Tick. That's what he told me

That makes no sense, and it doesn't matter whether Sam Lamb Burger or Oscar the Grouch told you otherwise. You can sugar coat pick 19 all you like but that's what it is. Not Pick 17.

 

[x_les_x]

Port needing more ruckmen?

Ryder is terrific. Add him to Lobbe and Redden and Port Adelaide are well positioned going into next season.

Gorringe next year probably wants to join Port Adelaide so I wouldn't be rushing to add further ruckmen with Ryder pretty well filling that need.

But sure, if Port Adelaide see long term potential in one, then as a rookie it may as well be a consideration if there are no other options that appeal.

But I'd be looking to further add to that Port Adelaide midfield. Maybe Matthew Panos could be a consideration as an example. Or otherwise the may be some other midfielder who slides.

It might seem strange but if Ryder or Lobbe goes down with injury/suspension we are totally efffed. Redden is so injury prone and hasn't played any or very limited games in the past year so he will spend considerable time in the sanfl maybe pushing for afl selection at round 15+ but he is no certainty to not be injured again. I reckon we need just 1 more whether it is a mature aged ruck for depth just in case, so that this years scenario doesn't play out again (only having 1 fit ruck on the list)

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

KM Liam Duggan seems to have slipped from a possible top 10 selection to 15+. Any reason why?

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

That makes no sense, and it doesn't matter whether Sam Lamb Burger or Oscar the Grouch told you otherwise. You can sugar coat pick 19 all you like but that's what it is. Not Pick 17.

Well, it actually does make a little sense.

If you look at what they're giving up going from #7 to #19, you would presume that there is going to be 12 less players available at pick #19 than at #7.

However, because neither Moore nor Heeney were going to be available at #7, but the picks used to take them fall between there and #19, there are only actually 10 less available players at #19 than at #7.

It's incredibly minor, but it does technically make sense.

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

Well, it actually does make a little sense.

If you look at what they're giving up going from #7 to #19, you would presume that there is going to be 12 less players available at pick #19 than at #7.

However, because neither Moore nor Heeney were going to be available at #7, but the picks used to take them fall between there and #19, there are only actually 10 less available players at #19 than at #7.

It's incredibly minor, but it does technically make sense.

Not when Moore and Heeney are ranked above pick 7 though, on talent.

 

[RedStarUncle]

Not when Moore and Heeney are ranked above pick 7 though, on talent.

Player taken at pick 7 is effectively the 9th best player in the group (due to Heeney and Moore being ahead of whoever the player is but pre-selected later in the draft). Player taken at 19 is effectively the 19th best player in the group. Hence the downgrade of pick 7 to pick 19 is actually only a 10-pick downgrade.

Not so much a case of pick 19 being worth pick 17 as it is of pick 7 only being worth pick 9.

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

Player taken at pick 7 is effectively the 9th best player in the group (due to Heeney and Moore being ahead of whoever the player is but pre-selected later in the draft). Player taken at 19 is effectively the 19th best player in the group. Hence the downgrade of pick 7 to pick 19 is actually only a 10-pick downgrade.

Not so much a case of pick 19 being worth pick 17 as it is of pick 7 only being worth pick 9.

You may get away with that logic, but the original assertion was that "Carlton have pick 17 if u do the maths" which is rubbish.

 

[Knightmare]

KM Liam Duggan seems to have slipped from a possible top 10 selection to 15+. Any reason why?

I will have Duggan next update going at pick 12 to Richmond. His stocks are if anything on the rise the past few weeks with all reports suggesting he interviewed exceptionally well and impressed all the clubs he spoke to.

 

[MyLittleSloaney]

I will have Duggan next update going at pick 12 to Richmond. His stocks are if anything on the rise the past few weeks with all reports suggesting he interviewed exceptionally well and impressed all the clubs he spoke to.

Ok sounds about right to me. I look forward to the next update. With all the swapped picks do you think it'll look very different to the current mock you've drawn up? And will you now start choosing players based on club needs more than power rankings?

 

[Knightmare]

Ok sounds about right to me. I look forward to the next update. With all the swapped picks do you think it'll look very different to the current mock you've drawn up? And will you now start choosing players based on club needs more than power rankings?

My phantom draft is always more based on where I expect they do. Needs are generally relatively blended in there. Not that it's ever perfect, no phantom draft is, none of us really know who every club will pick, it's just a roundabout guess as best as we can with the information we have on hand.

 

[Azul]

It's possible but against the odds. From around pick 20 he'll start to receive consideration and should go somewhere, most likely in the second round.

If he gets past Carlton at pick 19.

 

[MajorPayne]

Cats now have 10, I'm positive with our midfield probably being a bigger need than defence at the moment, is there a possibility Laverde or Pickett are there?

 

[Knightmare]

Cats now have 10, I'm positive with our midfield probably being a bigger need than defence at the moment, is there a possibility Laverde or Pickett are there?

Geelong by moving up have made the statement that they want someone who won't be available at 14.

Laverde probably isn't. Pickett maybe.

Durdin, Pickett and Duggan I imagine will be among Geelong's shortlist as guys who should be available at 10 but otherwise wouldn't at 14.

 

[Masto]

Lose Christensen and Varcoe then trading up before WCE suggests to me they are targeting Pickett to replace them.

 

[year of the cat]

Lose Christensen and Varcoe then trading up before WCE suggests to me they are targeting Pickett to replace them.

It appears to be the case doesn't it. We desperately need to bring in some more outside speed.

 

[Scham]

Lose Christensen and Varcoe then trading up before WCE suggests to me they are targeting Pickett to replace them.

Yep, or even Cockatoo maybe.

 

[Masto]

Yep, or even Cockatoo maybe.

Wells seems to enjoy his left-field selections so you could be right. Personally, it would be a huge surprise.

 

[Chaisa]

Yep, or even Cockatoo maybe.

Would've thought he'd still be there at #14.

Unless Adelaide wanted a pick in the 30's for some reason, I think Geelong's move up was to target Pickett.

 

[CatRiot]

Geelong is definitely upgrading for midfield talent, has to be Weller or Pickett. Looks like the Pies or GCFC will go Weller though before us.

 

[steve hucka]

I wouldn't be suprised if josh mcguinnes goes in the top 30 Knightmare ?

 

[Tex200]

Whoever is the highest rated talent on Brisbane's draft board presumably - and given how late in the draft I don't think any of us would guess exactly every player who will by that point be taken, every player who will still be available and who Brisbane would most like. Just too many variables for their to be any certainty.

To give you a name and I've got a 1 in 100 chance of being right Josh McGuinness.



Cockatoo goes somewhere in the 10-30 range most likely. North Melbourne at 16 will probably take a long, hard look. Maybe Essendon at 17/20. They're some clubs he has been connected to and they're my best guesses for eventual destinations.

Have a feeling he may be the reason we weren't bothered trading back to 14.

Walsh has been adamant he wants speed speed speed

 

[Knightmare]

I wouldn't be suprised if josh mcguinnes goes in the top 30 Knightmare ?

McGuinness is in the mix to get drafted but I'd be surprised to see him go top 30.

Have a feeling he may be the reason we weren't bothered trading back to 14.

Walsh has been adamant he wants speed speed speed

Everything I hear is Adelaide go big first up but you might be right about the later selections.

 

[Prochard123]

Hey Knightmare,
how is laverade compared to bontempelli? I remember you not rating Bontempt either last year and had him a similar range as Laverade in your power rankings as well as relatively close comments? What are their differences? Does Bontempt have something Laverade lack such as athleticism or game sense?

 

[master bate]

Lose Christensen and Varcoe then trading up before WCE suggests to me they are targeting Pickett to replace them.

Yep, or even Cockatoo maybe.

Is there an Indigenous quota down at Geelong??

In Christensen they lost an inside player who can also be effective at half forward. Varcoe was a running half back flanker. Pickett seems a wingman and Cockatoo is a big bodied back flanker or midfielder.

With Stanley and Clark added to their ruck/forward set up and whilst they have Motlop and Murdoch I think it's fair to say they wont be overly keen on a tall forward, ruck or dangerous small forward with their first pick.

But they missed on Frawley, lost Christensen and Varcoe, that's 3 different types. They could go key defender, inside midfielder or running half back/wingman.