Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2014 Phantom Draft

[TradeDraft]

With college b-ball those games are nationally televised. That's why all that footage is available with people just easily recoding those games and doing their editing and whatever they do with it.

I don't think with the AFL it's so much guarded as much as there is no real benefit for anyone in the AFL system to share various u18 games online and with those games not nationally televised there just isn't the opportunity for people to create youtube vids in the most part.

ALB has free streaming on youtube. Then Download.So it can be done

 

[Knightmare]

ALB has free streaming on youtube. Then Download.So it can be done

do you mind posting or sending a link?

 

[TradeDraft]

do you mind posting or sending a link?

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC4URW7871xPZrbeiPREOldA

 

[tenderwarrior]

Knightmare I really appreciate your work and effort.

I have a question regarding this years draft pool. Which draftees do you think best represent the classic wing-man type, who hardly handballs (or tackles) but could get plenty of kicks out in space, take a handful of marks and is always a chance to kick a few goals? Similar I guess to a Andrew Gaff, Jared Polec or an Issac Smith?

Cheers,

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare I really appreciate your work and effort.

I have a question regarding this years draft pool. Which draftees do you think best represent the classic wing-man type, who hardly handballs (or tackles) but could get plenty of kicks out in space, take a handful of marks and is always a chance to kick a few goals? Similar I guess to a Andrew Gaff, Jared Polec or an Issac Smith?

Cheers,

No one fits perfectly into each of those categories as far as I can tell yet.

You've got Darcy Parish who is an excellent kick and can play inside/outside.

Darcy Tucker is another who is an excellent kick and can play inside/outside. Has some pace to him also.

You've got a whole stack of sub 175cm types who can run but ideally for that role you'd like someone with more height.

Harley Balic and Callum Ah Chee are both quick and can do damage. I just tend to favour them both forward of centre.

The more I'm looking at the draft and looking through the players the more I'm finding (and this is unusual) that a number of them have a balanced inside/outside game (historically guys are usually either inside or outside as 18 year olds with only a small numbers able at both). And there are more good inside types than I probably realised last year which in many ways is a good thing also with contested ball winning ability typically something that translates well to AFL standard play.

I'm sure over the year regarding exactly that outside Gaff/Polec/Smith type someone will become more obvious. May not even be someone we know about yet or perhaps a late bloomer not unlike Isaac Smith or Blaine Boekhorst this year.

 

[tenderwarrior]

No one fits perfectly into each of those categories as far as I can tell yet.

You've got Darcy Parish who is an excellent kick and can play inside/outside.

Darcy Tucker is another who is an excellent kick and can play inside/outside. Has some pace to him also.

You've got a whole stack of sub 175cm types who can run but ideally for that role you'd like someone with more height.

Harley Balic and Callum Ah Chee are both quick and can do damage. I just tend to favour them both forward of centre.

The more I'm looking at the draft and looking through the players the more I'm finding (and this is unusual) that a number of them have a balanced inside/outside game (historically guys are usually either inside or outside as 18 year olds with only a small numbers able at both). And there are more good inside types than I probably realised last year which in many ways is a good thing also with contested ball winning ability typically something that translates well to AFL standard play.

I'm sure over the year regarding exactly that outside Gaff/Polec/Smith type someone will become more obvious. May not even be someone we know about yet or perhaps a late bloomer not unlike Isaac Smith or Blaine Boekhorst this year.

I will keep my eye on a few of those names thanks, especially the two Darcy's. There is nothing better than watching a quality winger in action.

What about the draft just gone (2014 draft)? I have heard Corey Ellis could be one, Billy Stretch another. Who else stands out to you from the draft just gone?

 

[Knightmare]

I will keep my eye on a few of those names thanks, especially the two Darcy's. There is nothing better than watching a quality winger in action.

What about the draft just gone (2014 draft)? I have heard Corey Ellis could be one, Billy Stretch another. Who else stands out to you from the draft just gone?

Ellis probably isn't so purely outside. Terrific user of the footy but doesn't have such a defined best position in my view. Probably more inside than outside if anything. I imagine he will rotate between playing through the midfield and on a flank depending on what Richmond need.

Stretch is definitely an outside mid and a productive one who has pace and good footskills. Very light and not tall but can play.

Pickett and Garlett are more your natural wingmen from this past draft and the two best of their variety in 2014. Both have special speed and ability to take on the game. Pickett particularly, what he can do offensively. Special and Lewis Jetta like stuff.

 

[RUNVS]

Knightmare do you feel odd now your username is also the name of a political scandal?

Also other than the obvious who do you imagine from NSW and QLD potentially getting drafted in 2015?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare do you feel odd now your username is also the name of a political scandal?

Also other than the obvious who do you imagine from NSW and QLD potentially getting drafted in 2015?

Feeling pretty cut moving a spot down on the old Google search.

In saying that I can't be so upset about a term that so aptly describes the recent decline of our incompetent pm in the polls (apologies to the Lib followers but Abbott is the George W Bush of Australian PMs, it's pathetic really).

I'm trying to keep most names for 2015 as quiet as I can until I launch my website.

From NSW look out for: Callum Mills (Sydney Academy) and Jacob Hopper, Dylan McDonald and Jock Cornell (all from GWS Academy).

From QLD look out for: Ben Keays, Eric Hipwood, Liam Moseley, Nate Dennis, Corey Wagner (all Brisbane Academy).

 

[RUNVS]

Feeling pretty cut moving a spot down on the old Google search.

In saying that I can't be so upset about a term that so aptly describes the recent decline of our incompetent pm in the polls (apologies to the Lib followers but Abbott is the George W Bush of Australian PMs, it's pathetic really).

You won't get any argument from me there.

I'm trying to keep most names for 2015 as quiet as I can until I launch my website.

From NSW look out for: Callum Mills (Sydney Academy) and Jacob Hopper, Dylan McDonald and Jock Cornell (all from GWS Academy).

From QLD look out for: Ben Keays, Eric Hipwood, Liam Moseley, Nate Dennis, Corey Wagner (all Brisbane Academy).

Thanks

They obviously won't all be drafted but it would be great if all those guys did get onto AFL lists. I would love to see the QLD and NSW numbers increase to around 15 a year (combining national and rookie draft). I think eventually the AFL should be aiming for 25% of all players drafted coming from either NSW and QLD. It is a long term goal but I think it can happen.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks

They obviously won't all be drafted but it would be great if all those guys did get onto AFL lists. I would love to see the QLD and NSW numbers increase to around 15 a year (combining national and rookie draft). I think eventually the AFL should be aiming for 25% of all players drafted coming from either NSW and QLD. It is a long term goal but I think it can happen.

There is real quality in both QLD and NSW.

Mills and Keays are the two best in the draft for me at this stage. Hopper is another who looks a real chance to go first round. And some combination of the others and then some we don't even know about yet will get drafted.

I'd guess 4-5 from each of NSW and QLD get drafted at years end. The academies are really generating some serious talent and it's obvious already which is pretty scary really with more to pop up later in the year no doubt with further development, with many of those NSW and QLD kids having played less footy to this point.

 

[Procrastinator35]

G'Day Knightmare....When will you be starting your new 2015 Prospectus Fred for the Phantom Draft?....Reckon it might be time IMO.

Interested to hear your opinion on the seeming omission/oversight of Kieran Agius, Tom Cole & Gach Nyoun from the top 25 AFL Prospectus?

Also, do you know if Dylan Parish is the son of Les Parish who played for Fitzroy, or a relation thereof?....As no one seems to know, one way or the other....

Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

G'Day Knightmare....When will you be starting your new 2015 Prospectus Fred for the Phantom Draft?....Reckon it might be time IMO.

Interested to hear your opinion on the seeming omission/oversight of Kieran Agius, Tom Cole & Gach Nyoun from the top 25 AFL Prospectus?

Also, do you know if Dylan Parish is the son of Les Parish who played for Fitzroy, or a relation thereof?....As no one seems to know, one way or the other....

Cheers

I won't be starting a thread on here until after I launch my website but I have a four round phantom draft (no bios complete at this point, but a few brief one liners which I hope on launch to have complete for all those in the phantom to give a basic idea of what guys offer) and a top 50 power rankings complete I can confirm for those interested in my progress.

Cole I feel is an oversight and I haven't heard as much talk about him at this point as I feel there should be. I consider him a top 10, maybe top 15 pick at this point. He has produced and looks the goods. He is one I'm really looking forward to seeing the progress of.

Agius I like also. I don't quiet have him top 25 so I'm not bagging on the prospectus for that but I have him around 30 at this point. Given his strength and power as a medium sizer I get why he might not be there for all and it's a hard type to place this far out but he has the performances on the board and his scoreboard impact has been excellent so he looks at this stage certainly very draftable.

Gash Nyuon I can't agree with you on and a bit like Duom Dawam this past year, he is just so raw and so far away. If he gets picked as a rookie I'd be deeming that a good result.

There are a few outside Victoria I think the prospectus have missed and some guys I have inside the top 10 even, but I'll save that for my website launch.

I don't know if Dylan is related to Les. It's possible but not information I have.

 

[RUNVS]

There is real quality in both QLD and NSW.

Mills and Keays are the two best in the draft for me at this stage. Hopper is another who looks a real chance to go first round. And some combination of the others and then some we don't even know about yet will get drafted.

I'd guess 4-5 from each of NSW and QLD get drafted at years end. The academies are really generating some serious talent and it's obvious already which is pretty scary really with more to pop up later in the year no doubt with further development, with many of those NSW and QLD kids having played less footy to this point.

So safe to say Tasmania and Northern Territory will not be wining the NAB Under 18 championship division 2 this year? I think it would be an enormous accomplishment if in a 5 or so years time NSW and QLD both moved to division 1 in the U18 championships. Probably won't happen for a while though.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Do you have a link/reference to said website you speak of?...If not, then could you supply us with it's launch date if/when it happens?

Nyuon is an interesting one....The lad is so athletically gifted but as raw as Duom as you say....However, I see his upside as more akin to that of a Tom Nicholls at the Gold coast....Which ever side of this spectrum he falls will be dictated by how he goes this year.

If Parish is Les's son, then Brisbane will have first dibs on nominating him as a F/S!....Given he is a top 5 prospect at this stage, that means they will have both Keays & Parish in their stable to match the Swans catch of Mills/Dunkley in the 2015 draft!

 

[Knightmare]

So safe to say Tasmania and Northern Territory will not be wining the NAB Under 18 championship division 2 this year? I think it would be an enormous accomplishment if in a 5 or so years time NSW and QLD both moved to division 1 in the U18 championships. Probably won't happen for a while though.

There are some good Tasmanians. Jake Sushames and Jordan Hayden are two who look draftable and first half of draft draftable. There are some others in the mix later in the draft so they are definitely in contention to win the u18 champs next season.

From NT it's not such an exciting group at this stage and it's hard without the star power to win Div 2.

Do you have a link/reference to said website you speak of?...If not, then could you supply us with it's launch date if/when it happens?

Nyuon is an interesting one....The lad is so athletically gifted but as raw as Duom as you say....However, I see his upside as more akin to that of a Tom Nicholls at the Gold coast....Which ever side of this spectrum he falls will be dictated by how he goes this year.

If Parish is Les's son, then Brisbane will have first dibs on nominating him as a F/S!....Given he is a top 5 prospect at this stage, that means they will have both Keays & Parish in their stable to match the Swans catch of Mills/Dunkley in the 2015 draft!

Still need to buy a website/set it up which will be a process. Will make a post in this thread and perhaps include it in my signature when I get it started.

Nicholls is terrific but Nyuon just hasn't shown nearly those kinds of signs. Nicholls is special. He has elevation to get the taps, but it's that tackling ability and followup ability that makes him so an exciting player. Nyuon is a leaper but I'm still asking can he become a dominant tap ruckman and be more than a leaper? At this stage I don't see that with him and as such while it's early I'm not getting my hopes up until he shows significant improvement.

Les Parish in looking him up only played 94 games (100 games needed for F/S). So either way Parish I can confirm isn't father son eligible.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Les Parish in looking him up only played 94 games (100 games needed for F/S). So either way Parish I can confirm isn't father son eligible.

Surprised by that....Always thought Les had played well in excess of 100 games...Every other club will be pretty happy bout that, if he is Darcy's father!

Any other names you could supply us with to keep an eye out for...Most especially those who you felt were stiff to miss out on AIS/Top 25 Prospectus selections?

 

[Jazny]

There are some good Tasmanians. Jake Sushames and Jordan Hayden are two who look draftable and first half of draft draftable. There are some others in the mix later in the draft so they are definitely in contention to win the u18 champs next season.

What about Nick Dodge and Logan Reynolds, KM?

 

[Knightmare]

Surprised by that....Always thought Les had played well in excess of 100 games...Every other club will be pretty happy bout that, if he is Darcy's father!

Any other names you could supply us with to keep an eye out for...Most especially those who you felt were stiff to miss out on AIS/Top 25 Prospectus selections?

Will keep my lips sealed for the time being. Hopefully it won't be too much longer. But there are a few I'm really excited about, and probably more excited about than most based on what I'm reading from others.

I will say this re AIS. I do have one today inside my top 10 who is not in the AIS Academy and another inside my top 20 (neither are Victorians) again not part of the AIS AFL Academy - not that they will be consensus top 10 or 20 guys at this stage, but they're just guys based on what I've seen, that's where I've got them at this point. Historically if you look back and I sense it again this year that they can miss some of that good talent outside Victoria and identify some of the wrong guys, though at least with WA this year they've done a better job at least which is something.

What about Nick Dodge and Logan Reynolds, KM?

Both draft are chances with each playing 3/3 games for TAS through the u18 champs last year and looking pretty good for underagers in Div 2. I have both in my phantom draft today but not in the top half at this stage.

Tassie football fans will be pleased to know that it's a stronger group again this year so I'll no doubt be inundated with Tassie football fans making cases for guys to move onto or up my draft board.

 

[coniglio_number1]

He knightmare

What sort of player is hopper? And how does he rate compared to his Victorian equivalents?

 

[Knightmare]

He knightmare

What sort of player is hopper? And how does he rate compared to his Victorian equivalents?

The basics with Hopper are that he is a strong contested ball winner with some pace who is best suited playing on the ball.

Despite being a part of the GWS Academy he actually plays for North Ballarat Rebels, so he plays regularly in the TAC Cup and as such he can be easily compared to the other Victorian talents. Hopper last year missed time with injury and as such his numbers were not exceptional as the likes of Dunkley/Parish/Cole and those other better Victorian mids but none the less he is an exceptional talent who I'm expecting a breakout year from. On talent he looks in my view a top 20 pick at this stage, so the probable outcome is GWS need to use that that second round pick on him.

 

[Procrastinator35]

The basics with Hopper are that he is a strong contested ball winner with some pace who is best suited playing on the ball.

Despite being a part of the GWS Academy he actually plays for North Ballarat Rebels, so he plays regularly in the TAC Cup and as such he can be easily compared to the other Victorian talents. Hopper last year missed time with injury and as such his numbers were not exceptional as the likes of Dunkley/Parish/Cole and those other better Victorian mids but none the less he is an exceptional talent who I'm expecting a breakout year from. On talent he looks in my view a top 20 pick at this stage, so the probable outcome is GWS need to use that that second round pick on him.

This is due to the fact that he is attending/boarding at St.Patricks college, which has a strong football program & often attracts lads from interstate & other Victorian regions because of this....I believe Yestin Eades has transferred over from W/A to go there, & hence will also play for the Ballarat Rebels in the TAC Cup

Dallas Willsmore, who was picked up by Hawthorn as a rookie was actually zoned to the Bendigo Pioneers, but went to St.Pats & so played for the Ballarat Rebels because of this....The school has a strong rep Australia wide for it's footballing program, & usually 2-3 boys are drafted every year from there!...Nathan Lovett-Murray from the N/T went through there, as did so many of the boys recruited into the AFL via the Ballarat Rebels.

If a kid is playing rep football for another state but is representing the Ballarat Rebels in the TAC Cup, then it's more than likely that they are boarding/attending St Patricks college!

 

[Hawthorngoatie]

Hi Knightmare

As always, amazing work and really appreciate the effort you put in!

I asked you some time ago about DT projections for players from this year's draft and you gave me some great insights but also suggested I should check back in once the draft was done and pre-season had started. My question relates to a DT keeper league situation. I was hoping you might be able to shed some light on players and their projected scores for this year and into their career - especially anyone less flashy who you think could be a good pickup in a few years time.

Thanks

Hawthorngoatie

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare

As always, amazing work and really appreciate the effort you put in!

I asked you some time ago about DT projections for players from this year's draft and you gave me some great insights but also suggested I should check back in once the draft was done and pre-season had started. My question relates to a DT keeper league situation. I was hoping you might be able to shed some light on players and their projected scores for this year and into their career - especially anyone less flashy who you think could be a good pickup in a few years time.

Thanks

Hawthorngoatie

For some long term guns I like: *note with probability of an AFL career that's assuming injuries/other issues aren't a factor.
Isaac Heeney could average 65dt off 20 games. long term has 100-110 scoring upside. (Probability of an AFL career 100%)
Angus Brayshaw could average 70dt off 20 games. long term has 100-110 scoring upside. (Probability of an AFL career 100%)
Christian Petracca won't be playing this season with the ACL. has long term 95-105 scoring upside. (Probability of an AFL career 100%)
Liam Duggan could play 5 games this year at a 60 average. has long term scoring upside of 80-90. (Probability of an AFL career 75%)
Corey Ellis could play 5 games this year at a 65 average. has long term scoring upside of 85-95. (Probability of an AFL career 85%)
Jordan De Goey may play 10 games this year, can average 55dt. has long term scoring upside of 95-105. (Probably of an AFL career 95%)
Lachie Weller may play 10 games this year, can average 60dt. has long term 90-100 upside. (Probability of an AFL career 95%)
Kyle Langford really depends on the asada stuff, he may not debut this year otherwise, but if playing could score 60dt this year. has 90-100 upside. (Probability of an AFL career 80%)
Jayden Laverde like with Langford depends on the asada stuff, he similarly may/may not debut otherwise, he could be good similarly for 60dt this year, 90-100 upside long term. (Probability of an AFL career 80%)
Jack Steele I'd tip to play around 15 games and he has the ability to average 65. long term he has the upside to be a 100-100 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 85%)
Toby McLean I'd tip to play around 15 games and has the ability to average 60. long term has the upside to be a 85-95 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 85%)
Touk Miller I'd tip to play around 10 games and has the ability to average 60. long term has the upside to be a 95-105 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 85%)
Brayden Maynard I'd tip to play 5-10 games and has the ability to average 60. long term has the upside to be a 90-100 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 85%)
Connor Blakely I'd tip to play 5 games and has the ability to average 65. long term has the upside to be a 100-100 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 85%)
Alex Neal-Bullen may debut this year and could average 60. long term has the upside to be a 90-100 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 70%)
Billy Stretch may play 5-10 games this year and can average 60. long term upside of 80-90. (Probability of an AFL career 80%)
Caleb Daniel I'd tip to play around 10 games this year at a 55 average. he has the upside to be a 80-90 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 80%)
Dean Gore unlikely to debut this year. long term has upside to be an 85-95 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 65%)
Damien Cavka is may debut this year and could average 55. long term has the upside to be a 90-100 scorer. (Probability of an AFL career 70%)

Of the rookies Aaron Vandenberg is the one to be aware of. Mature ager and ready to play. He could play 20 games at an 85 average this year and has the upside to be a 100ppg scorer in dt.
Nic Newman is the other mature rookie to look out for. Sydney will be a hard list to get games on, but as a back flanker with Malceski gone if he can get games he can be Sydney's Michael Hibberd equivalent as a guy who may average say 70 this year with the upside of around 90ppg.

Hopefully that gives you a better feel for who to pick and what to expect from some of these new recruits.

 

[Hawthorngoatie]

Huge thanks! You are amazing