Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[VaultWanderer]

Im interested in clayton oliver alot seem to rate him. Would he be worth a pick around pick 12? Also how is he with fitness he looks chubby

 

[Knightmare]

Im interested in clayton oliver alot seem to rate him. Would he be worth a pick around pick 12? Also how is he with fitness he looks chubby

It will be up to AFL clubs to determine what they want to spend on Oliver.

I don't yet have a great feel for that with media rumours vague around him.

I'd certainly be prepared to spend pick 12 on Oliver though. I'd even start to consider him around pick 5 myself.

As for his fitness. I haven't seen any testing results. He gets from contest to contest without covering the ground to a high level. So he would likely have average endurance by position. Then again he had a limited preseason so there probably was only so far he could take it this season anyway.

From a running perspective I anticipate he'll be fine. It's just not the reason you draft him with his relative superiority at stoppages what you're investing in.

 

[nottenthagain]

GWS seem to have a heap of options via their academy this year (they always will considering their academy zone) but I just can't see them being able to get all of their academy players through this year, I would expect Kennedy and Hopper will suck them dry for picks. I suppose the counter to that is they'll get a few via trades...? Anyway, of theirs I really like Cornell and Coughlan, what are your thoughts? Would you expect GWS to pass on either of them?

On Dunkley, he seems to be sliding which suits us but I reckon we are a chance of passing on him if he goes in the top 25. At what point would you think he's too expensive to draft?

 

[sven_inc]

With a few Hawthorn hearts breaking with the news Jed Anderson might want a trade, where would you see him going in this years draft mate?

 

[Knightmare]

GWS seem to have a heap of options via their academy this year (they always will considering their academy zone) but I just can't see them being able to get all of their academy players through this year, I would expect Kennedy and Hopper will suck them dry for picks. I suppose the counter to that is they'll get a few via trades...? Anyway, of theirs I really like Cornell and Coughlan, what are your thoughts? Would you expect GWS to pass on either of them?

On Dunkley, he seems to be sliding which suits us but I reckon we are a chance of passing on him if he goes in the top 25. At what point would you think he's too expensive to draft?

The relative limitations for GWS will be the picks they have and their list size (which needs to reduce). So given all that and with several worthwhile players in their academy it will be interesting to see how many they decide to go with.

A probable theme I foresee this offseason is GWS will start to shop their fringe and bottom half of list types and get packages of picks in return or perhaps future picks so as to have the list space available that they need. So that likely means that Treloar, Hampton, Lamb, Bugg, Golds, Wilson, Tomlinson, Buntine, McCarthy, Pickett, Phillips, Sumner, Williams, Plowman, Townsend, Hoskin-Elliott, Corr, Stewart, Lobb, Mohr, Kennedy, Barratt, Downie, Addison, Finlayson and Schulz could all be shopped and available for the right price. Not that all would go at once. But GWS will no doubt go for player for pick and 2 for 1 deals to get their picks and reduce their list size and maximise the quality of players they get back in return.

As for who GWS end up getting. Hopper and Kennedy they will make sure they don't miss out on. Himmelberg, Cornell and Flynn are all possibles without being certainties. Coughlan if the rules with the academy apply for overagers could also be among those in the mix.
So clubs given GWS will have to pay up big for Hopper and Kennedy, if they big boldly for any of Himmelberg, Cornell, Flynn or Coughlan if he still is eligible. Then GWS will either have to concede one or a few of these or use some of next years picks to be able to take all these guys.

With the father son system there still is a relative discount which is helpful. My view would be that Sydney should match Dunkley if they feel he would on their draft board be the best player available at the pick that would need to come up with. If not, pass. And that may well be the case with other clubs needing inside mids more than Sydney who relatively have strong, and soon stronger stocks again with Mills to be added to that group. So the outcome of that will be interesting.

With a few Hawthorn hearts breaking with the news Jed Anderson might want a trade, where would you see him going in this years draft mate?

Anderson in my view would be worth around pick 25 in this draft. Anywhere 20-30 would be appropriate.

 

[dlanod]

Coughlan if the rules with the academy apply for overagers could also be among those in the mix.

FYI it does - Brisbane got Freeman as an over ager.

 

[Rondo Dazza]

Gidday Knightmare, enjoy your work. What do you think the Bombers will do at draft and how will trading Carlisle and Melksham impact their selections.

Cheers

 

[Knightmare]

Gidday Knightmare, enjoy your work. What do you think the Bombers will do at draft and how will trading Carlisle and Melksham impact their selections.

Cheers

A trade of Carlisle will significantly increase the urgency of adding another key forward.

Maybe that means someone through trade week. Perhaps a mature ager. Or some younger option through the draft.

I could see Essendon giving Mitch Brown (ex Geelong) a lifeline and use him as a stop-gap if no one appealing can be had during trade week.

On Melksham. Essendon with or without him need more midfielders. So you can expect a few midfielders probably through the draft to be added at the very least.

Trading Carlisle will mean certainly another pick back from St Kilda. Essendon would like that St Kilda first round pick which may mean Essendon give that second round selection in addition to Carlisle to make that happen. Maybe St Kilda give their second and third round selections for Carlisle. Something along those lines I'd guess would be most probable.

Melksham won't attract much I wouldn't expect and may get a return of Melbourne's 3rd round selection or a player of equivalent relative value again would be my best guess without having followed any of the commentary surrounding a Melksham trade.

Overall I expect Essendon to mostly add talent through the draft and load up on picks through those two deals which will mean a long term building approach with a likely view to build a team around Dyson Heppell, Joe Daniher and the other younger types coming through. With probably a ruckman added either through free agency (Leuenberger) or trade (whoever else is on the market).

 

[manny100]

KM, are there many highly rated Academy players for next years draft? If GWS Have another one or two top players they may want to stockpile a future pick or two especially as they hope/expect to finish in the eight next year.
If the Dees pick up Melksham and Kennedy I expect if they hold on to pick 6 they will look for a tall KPF.
What would the Dees expect to cough up for Kennedy??

 

[Knightmare]

KM, are there many highly rated Academy players for next years draft? If GWS Have another one or two top players they may want to stockpile a future pick or two especially as they hope/expect to finish in the eight next year.
If the Dees pick up Melksham and Kennedy I expect if they hold on to pick 6 they will look for a tall KPF.
What would the Dees expect to cough up for Kennedy??

Next years academy group isn't as deep or strong at this early stage. Jacob Allison (QLD) is probably the better of next years academy boys and the only of them I'd consider a first rounder at this point.

But that will change with guys developing as they have this year.

Melbourne seem like they're going after a few. Kennedy (though I expect there will be competition from the two SA clubs to get him) and Melksham are both gettable and certainly won't cost that first round selection. Same story with Tomas Bugg.

Jeremy Howe and to a lesser extent Jimmy Toumpas will attract some currency.

On Kennedy. It will be interesting to see what Melbourne offer. Kennedy was a top 20 selection and was considered to after Toumpas be that next highest rated talent on the draft board at the time. So Melbourne clearly rated him as a talent and still must if he is considered a trade target. Kennedy has been Collingwood's best midfielder in the 2s these past two seasons and has plainly struggled for opportunities due to Collingwood's deep midfield, with the situation becoming harder again for him this season with Adams developing and De Goey/Crisp/Greenwood all added and looking good.

Melbourne's second round selection would be what Collingwood would be asking for Kennedy I imagine. I can also see Collingwood entertaining a Ben Kennedy for Aaron Young trade with Port Adelaide. Or maybe a three way trade involving Kennedy to Melbourne, Toumpas to Port Adelaide and Aaron Young to Collingwood happens with probably some pick switching involved to satisfy all parties. They'll be among the deals being discussed at the moment I'd from the outside guess.

 

[philthy05]

Next years academy group isn't as deep or strong at this early stage. Jacob Allison (QLD) is probably the better of next years academy boys and the only of them I'd consider a first rounder at this point.

But that will change with guys developing as they have this year.

Melbourne seem like they're going after a few. Kennedy (though I expect there will be competition from the two SA clubs to get him) and Melksham are both gettable and certainly won't cost that first round selection. Same story with Tomas Bugg.

Jeremy Howe and to a lesser extent Jimmy Toumpas will attract some currency.

On Kennedy. It will be interesting to see what Melbourne offer. Kennedy was a top 20 selection and was considered to after Toumpas be that next highest rated talent on the draft board at the time. So Melbourne clearly rated him as a talent and still must if he is considered a trade target. Kennedy has been Collingwood's best midfielder in the 2s these past two seasons and has plainly struggled for opportunities due to Collingwood's deep midfield, with the situation becoming harder again for him this season with Adams developing and De Goey/Crisp/Greenwood all added and looking good.

Melbourne's second round selection would be what Collingwood would be asking for Kennedy I imagine. I can also see Collingwood entertaining a Ben Kennedy for Aaron Young trade with Port Adelaide. Or maybe a three way trade involving Kennedy to Melbourne, Toumpas to Port Adelaide and Aaron Young to Collingwood happens with probably some pick switching involved to satisfy all parties. They'll be among the deals being discussed at the moment I'd from the outside guess.

I have big question marks next to kennedys name.

Pies bring him up to afl level and play him as a forward crumber half forward flanker , or outside mid and he looks shit. As far as I can tell his best performances as a junior , and his form in the 2's seems to come as a midfielder playing on the ball.

A similar story to sammy Gray .. As soon as port moved him onto the ball he blossomed.

But can kennedy replicate his junior/reserves form into the centre against afl bodies?

 

[Knightmare]

I have big question marks next to kennedys name.

Pies bring him up to afl level and play him as a forward crumber half forward flanker , or outside mid and he looks shit. As far as I can tell his best performances as a junior , and his form in the 2's seems to come as a midfielder playing on the ball.

A similar story to sammy Gray .. As soon as port moved him onto the ball he blossomed.

But can kennedy replicate his junior/reserves form into the centre against afl bodies?

Kennedy has at AFL level in the most part only received opportunities as a sub and that's plainly annoyed numerous Pies fans with many long feeling that he should be used more and as a starter. So he has never really been given that run in the 1s to have that chance to prove what he can do. And like last year with Greenwood/De Goey/Crisp added, and with Treloar presumably added this year, it's only getting harder.

At VFL level Kennedy consistently played on the ball and dominated. And that's how he continues to be utilised.

He definitely isn't an outside mid, he doesn't have that ability and it's not his game as someone who wins his ball mostly in the contest. But as an onballer he continues to do as he always has.

Kennedy I feel can play at AFL level. But he is a component to an AFL midfield rather than the star junior he was. So if you're looking for a 3rd/4th/5th midfielder. Kennedy can be that. And for a Port Adelaide alongside Gray, Wines, Boak and Ebert would make for a suitable 5th midfielder who can play primarily through the midfield with stints as required through the front half.

 

[philthy05]

Kennedy has at AFL level in the most part only received opportunities as a sub and that's plainly annoyed numerous Pies fans with many long feeling that he should be used more and as a starter. So he has never really been given that run in the 1s to have that chance to prove what he can do. And like last year with Greenwood/De Goey/Crisp added, and with Treloar presumably added this year, it's only getting harder.

At VFL level Kennedy consistently played on the ball and dominated. And that's how he continues to be utilised.

He definitely isn't an outside mid, he doesn't have that ability and it's not his game as someone who wins his ball mostly in the contest. But as an onballer he continues to do as he always has.

Kennedy I feel can play at AFL level. But he is a component to an AFL midfield rather than the star junior he was. So if you're looking for a 3rd/4th/5th midfielder. Kennedy can be that. And for a Port Adelaide alongside Gray, Wines, Boak and Ebert would make for a suitable 5th midfielder who can play primarily through the midfield with stints as required through the front half.

Meh

Port have sammy Gray as an undersized on baller and he absolutely blitzed it at the end of the season. We will be rolling into 2016 with wines , boak , Robbie Gray , Hartlett , Ebert , wingard and Polec as our main mids and ah chee and sammy Gray showed they are absolutely can play at the level. Don't really think Kennedy should be a target with port.

Port needed to add a clearance guy but ahchee and Gray stood up so really outside players like Polec are really what we need..unfortunately there doesn't seem to be many on the market at least not visibly , and few in the draft.

 

[Knightmare]

Meh

Port have sammy Gray as an undersized on baller and he absolutely blitzed it at the end of the season. We will be rolling into 2016 with wines , boak , Robbie Gray , Hartlett , Ebert , wingard and Polec as our main mids and ah chee and sammy Gray showed they are absolutely can play at the level. Don't really think Kennedy should be a target with port.

Port needed to add a clearance guy but ahchee and Gray stood up so really outside players like Polec are really what we need..unfortunately there doesn't seem to be many on the market at least not visibly , and few in the draft.

Toumpas probably will be the guy Port Adelaide end up with.

 

[jasonrampage2010]

Any news on how high Chol jumped?
Vid here

 

[Balony_pony16]

Any news on how high Chol jumped?
Vid here

looks like they need a bigger pole

 

[Balony_pony16]

Knight... If Aish was going to the national draft this year after failed trade talks and lets say for the purpose to work out his current value he agrees to go to any club (no flight risk etc..), Where would he go in the current draft?

 

[Knightmare]

Any news on how high Chol jumped?
Vid here

The talk is Nyuon was the star leaper.

AFL.com or someone will list top 5s in each category, so if Chol was among those very top finishers his jump numbers should be listed.

Knight... If Aish was going to the national draft this year after failed trade talks and lets say for the purpose to work out his current value he agrees to go to any club (no flight risk etc..), Where would he go in the current draft?

If Brisbane decide not to trade Aish I expect he would instead nominate for the preseason draft.

Aish if he elected to enter this years national draft (and if he was not to suggest he would only play for one particular club) would be selected around pick 20.

 

[Balony_pony16]

The talk is Nyuon was the star leaper.

AFL.com or someone will list top 5s in each category, so if Chol was among those very top finishers his jump numbers should be listed.



If Brisbane decide not to trade Aish I expect he would instead nominate for the preseason draft.

Aish if he elected to enter this years national draft (and if he was not to suggest he would only play for one particular club) would be selected around pick 20.

19 players ahead of him on Talent??? Are you just playing your Pies supporter card? I would think the crows would love him at pick 13

 

[Knightmare]

19 players ahead of him on Talent??? Are you just playing your Pies supporter card? I would think the crows would love him at pick 13

I'm not overly fussed as to whether Collingwood get Aish or not. He would be on the fringe at the selection table. Aish is not a particularly damaging or efficient kick. Speed fine but not an incredible line breaker. Not a stoppage specialist or dominant contested ball winner. Not hitting the scoreboard in bunches. So he'd hardly be a priority to add as Treloar is.

I'd slot Aish into 18 in my personal power rankings this year (and with a selection in the 20s would select Ryan Clarke and Luke Partington ahead of Aish).

On Adelaide. I'd expect they'd take Harry McKay ahead of Aish, needing that key forward/ruckman more.

 

[TwentyNine]

Hey KM,

I've heard a lot of good things about Bailey Rice as you often hear about F/S players coming through, what I am wondering is, why is he being rated down in the 20s? What kind of knocks are there on him that are keeping him from being a more highly rated player, do you think he'll be able to make it at AFL level?

Also curious about Jade Gresham and Kieran Lovell, both sound like solid prospects aside from their height. Seems like sometimes these short players go well (Miller, Taylor) and sometimes they struggle (Hrovat, Kennedy). Which category do you think these two fall into, are they versatile players like Miller and Taylor, or are they predominantly suited to one specific role like Hrovat and Kennedy?

Cheers.

 

[ItsAllAboutMe]

KM how much do you rate the testing, how many players will change rank in your opinion based off the testing and is it really relevant or just a marketing excercize by the AFL?

 

[Jordie_tackles]

Just saw in afl . com that gach nyuon equalled NIc Nats vertical leap record

 

[Gollo]

Also curious about Jade Gresham and Kieran Lovell, both sound like solid prospects aside from their height. Seems like sometimes these short players go well (Miller, Taylor) and sometimes they struggle (Hrovat, Kennedy). Which category do you think these two fall into, are they versatile players like Miller and Taylor, or are they predominantly suited to one specific role like Hrovat and Kennedy?

Cheers.

In my honest opinion, both Gresham and Lovell would be top 10 talents if they were 182cm+. I have absolutely no doubt that both will thrive in an AFL environment. Both are versatile enough to play in the guts and up forward, and Gresham has played a lot of defence as well. Lovell has elite athleticism, Gresham has a valuable turn of acceleration and endurance to burn, both are ridiculous accumulators with good disposal and tackle proficiently.

 

[princy_99]

Hey Knightmare quick question where could you see Charlie Curnow being picked this year?