Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Yoda_]

Keays I feel in the immediate and long term will outperform Parish.

He has weapons to have an impact at AFL level, but also performance on the board.

People tend to rate Parish around four and Keays around ten. I tend to see it the other way around.

Whenever I read about Parish, I continue to think Brent Stanton. Don't know why. Not sure if it's the ability to rack up the bill, the long yet unpenetrating kick, the ability to sneak forward for a goal or three or perhaps the main comparison of being predominantly outside with a somewhat limited inside game.

Stanton's tank would be in the top 5% in the AFL, not sure how Darcy projects in this area but he sounds more like a wing man than a true midfielder.

Would that be a fair assumption?

 

[Yoda_]

Hey km
How high could you see Sam weideman getting drafted? Could you see the bombers taking him at pick 4 as they are in need of another key forward

The big thing is Essendon supporters are torn about. Do we go and reach for a KPP like Weidemann or Collins as that is where the true top end KPP's are found allowing us the extra year to develop them, or do we go the more immediate and more pressing need of a small.

Why not have both? Charlie Curnow sounds like the complete and exact player we could use

 

[blueiris]

If Brisbane gets pick 3 and 4 who do you see Gold Coast and Essendon picking at pick 5 and 6

 

[askdotcom]

If Brisbane gets pick 3 and 4 who do you see Essendon picking at pick 5

considering gold coast have it i doubt anyone.

 

[Yoda_]

If Brisbane gets pick 3 and 4 who do you see Essendon picking at pick 5

Brisbane, nor Carlton should be getting band 1 compensation for Lleunberger or Kruezer

 

[blueiris]

considering gold coast have it i doubt anyone.

Lol okay so who should Gold Coast Essendon pick at 5 and 6

 

[blueiris]

Brisbane, nor Carlton should be getting band 1 compensation for Lleunberger or Kruezer

Totally agree on both but if Kreuzer gets band 1 Lions should get the same for Leuenberger

 

[Yoda_]

Totally agree on both but if Kreuzer gets band 1 Lions should get the same for Leuenberger

Why? Because idiocy on BigFooty says so?

Fortunately reality is vastly different to BigFooty

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Five onward Weideman may receive consideration.

Can't see Essendon considering him when the likes of Francis and Parish are available. The talent disparity is just too great.

Out of Parish, Matho, Balic, Curnow and Weed, what would your order preference for Essendon's first pick be?

 

[Knightmare]

Whenever I read about Parish, I continue to think Brent Stanton. Don't know why. Not sure if it's the ability to rack up the bill, the long yet unpenetrating kick, the ability to sneak forward for a goal or three or perhaps the main comparison of being predominantly outside with a somewhat limited inside game.

Stanton's tank would be in the top 5% in the AFL, not sure how Darcy projects in this area but he sounds more like a wing man than a true midfielder.

Would that be a fair assumption?

Parish definitely isn't Stanton.

Parish is an incredibly reliable and excellent kick.

But at AFL level, I'm not seeing him accumulating nearly like Stanton. And while a good endurance runner, he isn't an elite endurance runner.

Just treat Parish as a skilled midfielder/flanker who can do a bit of whatever you need.

The big thing is Essendon supporters are torn about. Do we go and reach for a KPP like Weidemann or Collins as that is where the true top end KPP's are found allowing us the extra year to develop them, or do we go the more immediate and more pressing need of a small.

Why not have both? Charlie Curnow sounds like the complete and exact player we could use

Curnow is a big risk at four. It's not even clear he can play as a midfielder having spent this year when healthy mostly forward. Then good forward but can he be a great forward?

It's not a risk I wouldn't be prepared to take at that early stage.

But that doesn't mean one of the 18 clubs doesn't rate him that high. So who knows.

If Essendon want talls it's always possible to move pick four down a few positions or trades could always be possible. Sydney may be willing to move a Reid or Tippett and perhaps a pick they gain in a trade of Jetta to move up to pick four, and maybe with that pick a Kieran Collins could be had.

So that could be one way to work around it.

And then say second round if Essendon want a midfielder a Clayton Oliver could be had.

And those key needs can be met in the talls and that midfielder that has been missing.

 

[Knightmare]

Out of Parish, Matho, Balic, Curnow and Weed, what would your order preference for Essendon's first pick be?

To guess who Essendon narrow their preferences down to.

Probably Parish/Francis would be Essendon's preferences. Mathieson probably is that other primary consideration.

That's guesswork without hearing any specific rumours. But the educated guess based on the feel for where guys up the top end are generally rated.

 

[Yoda_]

Parish definitely isn't Stanton.

Parish is an incredibly reliable and excellent kick.

But at AFL level, I'm not seeing him accumulating nearly like Stanton. And while a good endurance runner, he isn't an elite endurance runner.

Just treat Parish as a skilled midfielder/flanker who can do a bit of whatever you need.

Is this why the Marc Murphy comparisons continue to creep up?

 

[Knightmare]

Is this why the Marc Murphy comparisons continue to creep up?

Murphy was who I initially saw Parish as being like early season. But I'm not seeing Parish reaching that level or being that standard of midfielder.

Calling Parish as a poor man's Murphy is one way to give people a feel for roughly what his game looks like, for those who must have a comparison to a player they're familiar with.

 

[God Save Max King]

I am entirely aware Parish can find the footy and use it well and I did read that and have acknowledged that in the past. I'm not disagreeing with any of that.

As for the whether Parish is a suitable selection for the Saints. It depends on what the Saints want. He may not and probably isn't there for starters with Parish probably going at pick 3 or 4. But if he is there, it depends on whether the Saints are looking more for a versatile mid who can use it or something else.

And each of those top end options offer something different, and different evaluations of talent will churn out a different position on draft boards.

In my case as explained before, though I'll go into greater depth this time for clarity. While Parish can find the footy at TAC Cup level and use it cleanly. He isn't a penetrator and his contested ball winning ability is ok, but not at a level where I'd personally feel comfortable placing him on the ball at AFL level for more than just another small minutes rotation option. For pace, Parish is quick enough, but not a linebreaker if that's what you're thinking he may be, that's definitely not him.

Overall I'd categorise Parish as a fine, low risk option, without being the best player there, if he is indeed available.

Other midfielders I'm feeling a greater level of impact from. Guys like Hopper and Oliver as two examples as contested ball winners. Those guys have AFL standard inside games.

Then you've got guys on who can still accumulate generally and offer versatility but also offer greater impact. Keays and R.Clarke are two great examples of this. Keays with his ability not only to accumulate, better contested ball winning ability, but then his strength of hands overhead and scoreboard impact. Then Clarke with his ability to accumulate, but then that explosiveness, still has the class and again he is another where he can really hit the scoreboard.

So Parish for me is edged down my power rankings on impact/ability to change the game and less points of difference. And it seems a lot of people are doing that with Partington who as a midfielder is much the same thing as Parish as another ultra efficient user of the footy who can also find it in bunches, and has still pretty good athleticism. He may even as a midfielder be a touch better as a slightly better contested ball winner, slightly better athlete and better able to provide scoreboard impact.
So that's an insight into my thought process with Parish and where I see him, and why I see him the way I do.

I can see where you draw the comparisons between Parto and Parish, KM, they're both quite well rounded, but the difference to me is Partington is merely decent at all facets while Parish is brilliant at most.

His contested game, while it probably won't be elite at the AFL level, is fantastic in the u18s and he wins genuine clearances. They aren't bash and crash style clearances, but that doesn't mean he can't win inside ball, his hands are uber clean and he reads the play very well. His evasiveness means it's very hard to bring him down in tackles when he does win it.

Endurance wise while 2 way running isn't there, his ability to cover ground at speed is up there with the elite mids, it's just so hard to keep up with him on the spread which is a big reason for his ball winning ability. His disposal is elite, vision is superb and he makes decisions super fast, just an extremely damaging player.

 

[Old navy]

Hey KM Elshaug has come out and said that the Saints are very keen to get a tall midfielder in this years draft.
There really isn't many 190cm+ mids available this year. Does that point to them reaching for Curnow ?

 

[Jordie_tackles]

I think I just saw that Nick Rippon won the JJ Liston medal tonight, North Ballarat Rebels and Roosters player I think. I liked him in his 18's year any chance for a rookie if the draft depth is weak?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM Elshaug has come out and said that the Saints are very keen to get a tall midfielder in this years draft.
There really isn't many 190cm+ mids available this year. Does that point to them reaching for Curnow ?

Could mean any number of things.

And it doesn't have to mean that first selection.

It might mean the Saints get talls mids with their second and third round picks. Maybe a James Parsons is considered if there in the third round as a taller mid with good skills and some running ability. Any number of names could be considered if the Saints want height.

Curnow with the Saints first round pick is certainly the very top end of where he may start to receive consideration, but for me it's a touch early still.

I think I just saw that Nick Rippon won the JJ Liston medal tonight, North Ballarat Rebels and Roosters player I think. I liked him in his 18's year any chance for a rookie if the draft depth is weak?

Not invited to the state screenings to my knowledge, so if he isn't, then most likely Rippon is overlooked.

This is probably the second season where Rippon has played good footy in the VFL, and he has been in the VFL for a few years now. Just with questionable footskills and a lack of a point of difference that makes him stand out v the others at AFL level and as such he fits into the excellent state leaguer category without having a game that suggests he will break into a best 22.

 

[Mad Prophet]

Melbourne probably lack some leg speed in our midfield right now, with plenty of inside types. A good ball user with run and carry ability would be what I'd want at pick 6 right now. Is there any players that fit that mould in that top bracket that I should keep an eye on?

 

[M Malice]

hi knightmare, if the lions end with weitering and not schache has weitering played forward much? do you think he has the potential to be the key position forward that the lions need or is he purely a defender? also if the lions end up with pick 3 and 4 (unlikely i know) they would take francis 3 and who do you think they would take 4 assuming carlton take weitering and schache?

 

[rog1995]

Hi Knightmare what are the chances of Carlton getting pick 9 from Geelong for Henderson and selecting Collins?
That would give us Weitering and Collins and secure our defence for the next decade.

 

[manny100]

Melbourne probably lack some leg speed in our midfield right now, with plenty of inside types. A good ball user with run and carry ability would be what I'd want at pick 6 right now. Is there any players that fit that mould in that top bracket that I should keep an eye on?

I think we may look at Hall from GC. He has some speed - he played very well after being moved into the midfield in the last 6 to 8 weeks of the season and will struggle for a mid role at GC when their guns are back. Could be a deal involving Howe - with some change back to the Dees??? Then a forward say, Weideman, Curnow or Burton depending on who is available at our first pick?? Failing picking up Hall a good offer to Stanton as a free agent may be a possibility.
Hopefully Tregove as a mid/back, forward comes up next year as well as Petracca.

 

[Knightmare]

Melbourne probably lack some leg speed in our midfield right now, with plenty of inside types. A good ball user with run and carry ability would be what I'd want at pick 6 right now. Is there any players that fit that mould in that top bracket that I should keep an eye on?

Darcy Tucker maybe, though I think he will go a bit later. Generally in that early draft region they're more combo mids who have more balanced inside/outside games, with none of them really pure running types.

Most of the genuine running types can probably be had in the second round. Kieran Lovell, James Parsons, Greg Clark, Ryan Clarke and Luke Partington are some in the second round who can off some run and carry.

hi knightmare, if the lions end with weitering and not schache has weitering played forward much? do you think he has the potential to be the key position forward that the lions need or is he purely a defender? also if the lions end up with pick 3 and 4 (unlikely i know) they would take francis 3 and who do you think they would take 4 assuming carlton take weitering and schache?

Weitering hasn't in the games I've seen play much forward at all. And it's not a position I'd feel comfortable using him when aware just how great he is as a key defender.

I don't see Carlton having picks one and two for this type of dilemma to come up, whereby Brisbane won't get one of Schache or Weitering. But Francis and Parish would be the two most probably considered after the big two, regardless of the team picking.

Hi Knightmare what are the chances of Carlton getting pick 9 from Geelong for Henderson and selecting Collins?
That would give us Weitering and Collins and secure our defence for the next decade.

I would consider Carlton gaining Geelong's first round pick to be highly against the odds. Henderson has for a mostly key forward displayed below average scoreboard impact and also has only had the one season where he has played 20+ games. Given he is 26 years of age going into next season that's terrible.

If Carlton want Geelong's first round selection, the best case scenario for Carlton I would expect to be Carlton offering Henderson and the second round selection, to get Geelong's first round selection.

Collins is expected to be available at pick 9, and could even be available late first or possibly even early second round. But he'd be a great get. He beat Schache on the weekend in more 1v1s than not and overall had the stronger impact. So he along with Weitering projects to have an excellent pro career. So I'd definitely in Carlton's situation be supporting a Weitering and Collins combination if it can happen.

 

[Gus Poyet]

I mentioned this in another thread but does Weitering to Carlton mean Carlton really don't need to be in the Carlisle market?

 

[Knightmare]

I mentioned this in another thread but does Weitering to Carlton mean Carlton really don't need to be in the Carlisle market?

Even with the addition of Weitering, I would still look at Carlton as needing x1 long term key defender and x2 long term key forwards (with my view that Carlton's existing key position players are not up to the required standard).

So Carlisle would be able to fill one of those three remaining key position posts under the assumption that Weitering or even Schache is added.

Others may have different opinions though and have different views on Casboult/Jaksch/Watson/Jones/Giles, but I'm not optimistic about any of them developing at this point in time, with Casboult based on his yearly improvement and contested marking ability the only maybe as the only of those I'd consider adequate to go forward with due to his excellent contested marking ability and yearly improvement.

 

[Gmod23]

Even with the addition of Weitering, I would still look at Carlton as needing x1 long term key defender and x2 long term key forwards (with my view that Carlton's existing key position players are not up to the required standard).

So Carlisle would be able to fill one of those three remaining key position posts under the assumption that Weitering or even Schache is added.

Others may have different opinions though and have different views on Casboult/Jaksch/Watson/Jones/Giles, but I'm not optimistic about any of them developing at this point in time, with Casboult based on his yearly improvement and contested marking ability the only maybe as the only of those I'd consider adequate to go forward with due to his excellent contested marking ability and yearly improvement.

I think you are saying a lot about a group of KPP, when Casboult is the pick.
Carlisle is still desperately needed and I hope Carlton get him.