Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Suma Magic]

This has probably been asked and answered a few times, so happy for anyone who knows to answer (thanks in advance) -

How does the draft depth compare to last year?
Eg how what do pick 10, 20, 30 and 40 in this year's draft compare to in last year's draft?

 

[Knightmare]

I had a started a discussion on the saints board trying to confirm how it worked. and i came to the conclusion that the more early Academy/FS the more valueable the latter picks are.

i.e if rice is bid after pick 35 the saints could potentially draft a kid at 35 and still have enough points from this year to get rice.

You're right in what you and the St Kilda board have worked out.

And you only have to look at the trades.

For GWS and the like. It's about adding quantity of picks in the years they have relevant academy talents, so as to maximise the points gained.

The advantage of this for everyone else is GWS will offer small pick upgrades to clubs if it allows them to gain more points towards their academy talents.

Whereas for everyone else. A late pick is a late pick and you probably end up with much the same if not the same player.

Late picks relatively are worth too much under the AFL's point system, as evidenced by the nature of the trade week moved made. But I can't imagine anyone will be complaining about that, particularly those clubs involved in those trades.

There is also under the academy system the opportunity for clubs to go into a points deficit for the next year. So overall for the NSW and QLD clubs. It's a good system that they can take great advantage of.

How far out from draft night do things become clearer? Do top 10 predictions usually change quite a bit between now and then?

The week before the rumour mill really heats up, with the media people sharing more of what they know/hear.

The day before or day of the draft things will be even more accurate, with the rumours then pretty much spot on and the top 10 picks pretty much all just about right.

This has probably been asked and answered a few times, so happy for anyone who knows to answer (thanks in advance) -

How does the draft depth compare to last year?
Eg how what do pick 10, 20, 30 and 40 in this year's draft compare to in last year's draft?

Weaker in all positions relative to last year and relative really to all recent drafts.

 

[Suma Magic]

Weaker in all positions relative to last year and relative really to all recent drafts.

Cheers.

Would pick 20 this year be equivalent to pick 40 last year? Pick 10 equal to pick 20?

 

[Prem17]

Speed and spread may mean Darcy Tucker or with pick 19 maybe Kieran Lovell.

19 to me is too early for Rioli. He may go somewhere around 30, but top 20 is a real stretch. Then again Carlton took Boekhorst which was enough of a shock, so who knows.

Judging by your phantoms over the years KM, I think you are smart enough to realise that Carlton have a new recruiter in charge of the show and he hits more often than he misses.
Some clubs might take put shots at SOS for his "mistakes" but you being a pies man, and the pies taking two young guns from GWS in recent years, I think would agree that the man knows what he is doing.
Maybe 19 will be too soon but Cyril wasn't spectacular at the draft camp either so I don't think Rioli will sit on the shelf too long.
Let's just hope that Hawthorn don't get him!

 

[Turbocat]

Geelong tend to go best available. In saying that from a list needs perspective these guys all make sense. Key defenders make a lot of sense given the clubs better key defenders are all near the end in Lonergan and Taylor, with Rivers retired. Pace is probably that other relative need which I've also included in William. And similarly for rucks there is a lack of options. So the list additions to my eyes look like suitable needs fits.

Thanks for the reply...
Best at this stage of the draft if very arbitrary. Lets face it the draft this year for Geelong will be pedestrian..having to wait till its almost over..so you may well be 100% right.

 

[Knightmare]

Cheers.

Would pick 20 this year be equivalent to pick 40 last year? Pick 10 equal to pick 20?

It's not quite so extremely lean.

Pick 10 this year is something like pick 15 last year.

Pick 20 this year is something like pick 30 last year.

Pick 30 onward this year is basically like having a rookie selection most years.

Judging by your phantoms over the years KM, I think you are smart enough to realise that Carlton have a new recruiter in charge of the show and he hits more often than he misses.
Some clubs might take put shots at SOS for his "mistakes" but you being a pies man, and the pies taking two young guns from GWS in recent years, I think would agree that the man knows what he is doing.
Maybe 19 will be too soon but Cyril wasn't spectacular at the draft camp either so I don't think Rioli will sit on the shelf too long.
Let's just hope that Hawthorn don't get him!

I am aware that SOS is the new head recruit this year for Carlton.

SOS has had success in identifying and trading for established talents from other clubs, and did that better for GWS than what we saw from Gold Coast which has proven their major advantage beyond their even more extreme concessions. As a draft day perform though SOS has been consistently poor and is not someone I would want picking for me on draft day.

As for Cyril. He had the performances on the board.

Daniel Rioli hasn't dominated like that. What is making people talk is his draft combine, which isn't something that excites me with the draft combine not equating to on field performance.

And he never had 20 disposals in any game this season and playing mostly forward wasn't average 2 goals a game. All in all, I'm struggling to share anyone's excitement.

Daniel has shown on field talent, but not first round talent and certainly not first round production.

 

[Dunny82]

I'm at this stage mostly focused on getting my draft profiles up as I've left things late this year due to work commitments and the like, but if you have a few particular key position players you're interested in I'm happy to go through my rankings and why I rate them where I do.

Thanks, I'll keep the list to 3 because I don't want to take away from your profiles since they're a great read.

Out of most interest would be Weideman. He seems to be highly rated by some however you've got him at 19 so interested to hear your thoughts about him. Other than him the 2 academy boys in Himmelberg and Hipwood.

 

[mrb1]

Knightmare you rate Clayton Oliver highly and potentially a 200 game player. Why do you think Carlton will choose Mathieson, H. McKay or Tucker with their current picks 8 and 11 instead? We have holes everywhere and so I thought "best available" would be the best approach. If that is Oliver then let's have him.

 

[osaka mick]

Judging by your phantoms over the years KM, I think you are smart enough to realise that Carlton have a new recruiter in charge of the show and he hits more often than he misses.
Some clubs might take put shots at SOS for his "mistakes" but you being a pies man, and the pies taking two young guns from GWS in recent years, I think would agree that the man knows what he is doing.
Maybe 19 will be too soon but Cyril wasn't spectacular at the draft camp either so I don't think Rioli will sit on the shelf too long.
Let's just hope that Hawthorn don't get him!

With the amount of picks he's had, he is of course going to hit some. I think that he has just re-recruited 4 players, that were misses at GWS doesnt give him the credits in the bank that you seem to be giving him.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks, I'll keep the list to 3 because I don't want to take away from your profiles since they're a great read.

Out of most interest would be Weideman. He seems to be highly rated by some however you've got him at 19 so interested to hear your thoughts about him. Other than him the 2 academy boys in Himmelberg and Hipwood.

Weideman:
Talent - 0.5: Good height and physical profile. Some attributes but no dominating point of difference to set him apart.
Production - 0.5: Good production for AIS, only average production through TAC Cup.
Improvement - 0.5: Harder to gauge as missed second half of season but early season was while not greatly, still somewhat better than 2014.
Total score: 1.5

Himmelberg:
Talent - 0.5: Has some points of difference (aerial marking etc) but relatively short and by position so will be more a an athletic than power forward.
Production - 0.5: Good production through u18 championships and throughout the season.
Improvement - 1: Big improver this season and has improved greatly as the season has progressed.
Total score: 2

Hipwood:
Talent - 0.5: Nice height and some interesting key position talent for a 200cm+ guy with ability to read flight and take a mark.
Production - 0.5: Strong production, particularly through U18 championships.
Improvement - 1: Much improved player from 2014 season and also if increasing height and weight are factored in there is substantial growth to come.
Total score: 2

It's always an interesting exercise. To give you a quick feel for how the other KPPs would fit, the tier system I use within my power rankings will make fairly clear how many points I would award each player. Eg. Weitering (3), Schache (2.5), Collins (2), H.McKay (1.5) etc.

Knightmare you rate Clayton Oliver highly and potentially a 200 game player. Why do you think Carlton will choose Mathieson, H. McKay or Tucker with their current picks 8 and 11 instead? We have holes everywhere and so I thought "best available" would be the best approach. If that is Oliver then let's have him.

The reason I don't have Oliver going to Carlton is because in clubland he is not rated as highly as I rate him in my power rankings.

My power rankings are how I rate players.

My phantom draft is where I expect clubs to pick players, taking out my personal evaluations.

And that's why Oliver goes in the teens rather than in the top 10. Just as I may be willing myself to bid a top 5 pick on Keays when he actually will attract a bid more likely around pick 15. And just as I wouldn't spend a top 15 pick on Sam Weideman when it appears a club inside the top 5 probably select him.

That will and should happen on all draft boards.

 

[Prem17]

With the amount of picks he's had, he is of course going to hit some. I think that he has just re-recruited 4 players, that were misses at GWS doesnt give him the credits in the bank that you seem to be giving him.

Regardless of what you or I or anyone else think, the man that built the Hawks dynasty rates what he has done both this trade week and with GWS.
Can't really argue with that, no matter who you go for.

 

[SABlue]

I'd love to know how different SOS's selections were to your phantom drafts KM during those same drafts he was responsible for considering he got it so wrong.
To often we judge a selection to quickly when players take different lengths of time to develope.
I can't remember anyone saying "dear god I can't believe GWS picked O'Rourke at no.2". Yet it is looked upon as a failure by SOS.

 

[rezagun]

Who do you think the crows will take at 9 and 13?

 

[gandaal]

I'd love to know how different SOS's selections were to your phantom drafts KM during those same drafts he was responsible for considering he got it so wrong.
To often we judge a selection to quickly when players take different lengths of time to develope.
I can't remember anyone saying "dear god I can't believe GWS picked O'Rourke at no.2". Yet it is looked upon as a failure by SOS.

O'Rourke and Plowman were considered a stretch at the time. They were considered 8-15 prospects about a month before the draft.

Why are we talking about SOS the recruiter anyway? List manager isn't the same as chief recruiter.

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

What can you tell us about Brayden Fiorini? Cal Twomey has mentioned him as a potential pick to Collingwood. He isn't in your top 50 Knighty.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Thanks for the reply...
Best at this stage of the draft if very arbitrary. Lets face it the draft this year for Geelong will be pedestrian..having to wait till its almost over..so you may well be 100% right.

Turbo ..do you have any rookies to upgrade this draft?

 

[Turbocat]

Turbo ..do you have any rookies to upgrade this draft?

My thoughts are that all our Rookies are fairly green. Luxford played a couple of games this year but really that had more to do with injuries than him being ready. He is a Rookie B anyway , so his elevation may be a option if they have another Rookie B in their sights. Our normal Rookies are unlikely at this stage Bates has spent most of his time injured , and only started to play some footy this year . Read is a raw ruck. The most likely kids that are ready to play are on the main list (or should I say were) Cunico and Gore. Gore now a Crow.

So 6 spots min to fill.. Maybe 1 or 2 DFA's but if we feel we can get some kids as in KM's phantom , most on our board would be happy enough with kids. Is there anybody we are going to find that would be a legit selection chance? Not unless we have a lot of injuries.. so mostly id be happy to let Wells show his talent in a year where its universally called thin.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

My thoughts are that all our Rookies are fairly green. Luxford played a couple of games this year but really that had more to do with injuries than him being ready. He is a Rookie B anyway , so his elevation may be a option if they have another Rookie B in their sights. Our normal Rookies are unlikely at this stage Bates has spent most of his time injured , and only started to play some footy this year . Read is a raw ruck. The most likely kids that are ready to play are on the main list (or should I say were) Cunico and Gore. Gore now a Crow.

So 6 spots min to fill.. Maybe 1 or 2 DFA's but if we feel we can get some kids as in KM's phantom , most on our board would be happy enough with kids. Is there anybody we are going to find that would be a legit selection chance? Not unless we have a lot of injuries.. so mostly id be happy to let Wells show his talent in a year where its universally called thin.

Would Geelong take Andrew Moore as a DFA?

Would help given you have 6 draft spots to fill after #50? .....ouch!

 

[Turbocat]

Would Geelong take Andrew Moore as a DFA?

Would help given you have 6 draft spots to fill after #50? .....ouch!

Who knows..depends if we like him I guess. Hardly set the world on fire has he?

I cant remember anyone doing what Geelong has done this year..so it will be educational how one of the best eyes for talent handle it.
Personally I feel thin drafts maybe more often assessment of how close they are to playing rather than under lying talent. If we can find another group of 2 or more players from this 6 , its a big win. Gore and Cunico were just as late last year.

 

[Dez!]

Knightmare

You've got us taking Parish and Curnow, how AFL ready would you rate them? I'm aware that Parish is a bit on the light side but does he have any other attributes that could compensate for his lack of size early on?

 

[Doc2Drej]

Would the blue's take Kieran Collins is he's available? He and weitering were pretty good together this year so why not keep up the partnership

 

[Andy_Mac]

Knightmare why do you think Melbourne would take Parish over Francis?

Roo's loves his big bodied mids and whilst Francis isn't a pure mid having taken Petracca and Brayshaw last year along with Tyson and Viney we're probably not looking for a pure mid. Besides we have P7 and Milera by your rankings will still be on the board and presents as a much greater needs pick.

 

[tenderwarrior]

Knightmare, given that Carlton's forward stocks seems, well, err - for want of a better term - putrid, is their any possibility that they select Weitering with the thought to possibly develop him as a forward option? I know that some might say that if they wanted to do that they should select Schache, but Weitering seems to be the better overall talent and is a leader - something Carlton need just as much, if not more.

How do you see Weitering's game translating into being a forward target, and has he played forward at all in his career to date that you are aware of?

 

[SnowRoo]

If draft night started like this

Pick 1 Carlton - Callum Mills
Pick 2 Carlton - Ben Keays
Pick 3 Carlton - Jacop Hopper
Pick 4 Carlton - Jacob Weitering

Do you think any of Syd, Bris, GWS would not match?

I think it would destroy their entire strategy if they didnt.

 

[Gmod23]

If draft night started like this

Pick 1 Carlton - Callum Mills
Pick 2 Carlton - Ben Keays
Pick 3 Carlton - Jacop Hopper
Pick 4 Carlton - Jacob Weitering

Do you think any of Syd, Bris, GWS would not match?

I think it would destroy their entire strategy if they didnt.

Would love to see them do this or the dees at 3 to do a similar thing.