Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2015 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

KM
Now that Curnow had a run in with the police could he slide or not. Hope he does slide to our pick

Curnow should still go top 10 and I don't see his draft position changing at all. The only AFL difference I'm anticipating is that upon getting drafted the club will surely talk to him about his behaviour and clearly outline their expectations.

Dunkley has nominated Sydney under the f/s rule.....as if they don't have enough midfielders already....

http://www.sydneyswans.com.au/news/2015-11-20/dunkley-nominates-for-fatherson

Good luck to Josh getting minutes in that midfield. It's going to be an up-hill battle but he is going to a great club with a great ability to develop talent. So who knows?

My expectation is while he is a good mid that he isn't a good enough midfielder to get minutes alongside Kennedy, Parker, Hannebery, Mitchell, Heeney, Mills, Jack.

But Sydney and Josh have surely spoken and have mutually made a decision and think he has a shot. So it will be interesting to see how that all goes.

The Swan's "points maximisation strategy" means that they have almost no choice but to match ANY bid on Mills.
KM: can you see Carlton bidding pick 1 for Mills? If not, how about Melbourne bidding on Mills, then Hooper, then Kennedy before eventually taking Parish?

Sydney can go into deficit if necessary. So they'll live.

Carlton won't bid pick 1. No talk of it and won't happen. Same story with Brisbane and pick 2. They want Weitering and Schache respectively and there has been no reported intent suggesting that they will force Sydney to pay for Mills or GWS with Hopper or Kennedy with those picks.

As for Melbourne. It is expected they bid on Mills. I'd recommend they bid on both Hopper and Kennedy. But that's up to them to decide on, and the decision will surely be down to their evaluation of whether Hopper and Kennedy are better than Parish/Curnow/Weideman or whoever else they're considering.

 

[VanDemonxx]

I agree with you that clubs are underrating Keays, and too often it happens with talents from QLD. Keays has performed better than Parish and Kennedy I agree. Kennedy has a shot at being better due to height, size and attributes but isn't yet. And Parish while in the same conversation has less traits that feel at AFL level that can allow him to be a dominating talent.

Didn't stop Ablett Jnr, Cousins and Robbie Gray

 

[dwoody15]

I absolutely agree with your 2009 point re taking Talia.

But I do think people are saying we'll pick Milera purely because he is from SA. Many in SA, including myself, think he is overrated. Can't see him being more than a high wing/half forward. Don't think Crows will take him with 1st pick.

With Podsiadly retiring, we don't have any talls who can play forward other than Walker and Jenkins.

So I think the Crows will plan to take a tall with 1st pick as there will be good mids available with their 2nd. If they do take a small with their first, B McKay is a chance for their 2nd

 

[ArielZ]

hello all. anyone care to explain the way the national draft will be broadcasted in 4 days? cheers

 

[Glenny83]

KM I do believe you have a slider to amend

hello all. anyone care to explain the way the national draft will be broadcasted in 4 days? cheers

It's on Fox Footy, there's an hour and a half pre-draft show, then it will role out similar To NBA and NFL drafts in the USA. Clubs will make selections via electronic means, then a spokesperson will make the announcement on stage.

 

[Since 2001]

KM I do believe you have a slider to amend

It's on Fox Footy, there's an hour and a half pre-draft show, then it will role out similar To NBA and NFL drafts in the USA. Clubs will make selections via electronic means, then a spokesperson will make the announcement on stage.

Is there any live streaming for people who don't have foxtel or does the afl website just do the usual and do a list form?

 

[Since 2001]

this is what a hawks supporter put on our thread

Speculation has it that Dunkley may have gone with the father son option hoping that a Victorian team bids on him and the swans pass on the opportunity to bid on him as a father son selection at that pick/s.

What are your thoughts KM ?

 

[scanlon]

this is what a hawks supporter put on our thread

Speculation has it that Dunkley may have gone with the father son option hoping that a Victorian team bids on him and the swans pass on the opportunity to bid on him as a father son selection at that pick/s.

What are your thoughts KM ?

I heard that aswell. Apparently they might have an agreement that sees the swan pass if he is bid on by a vic club. Watching interviews of him, he really seems off the idea of leaving his family.

 

[Knightmare]

Didn't stop Ablett Jnr, Cousins and Robbie Gray

Parish doesn't belong in that conversation. He doesn't accumulate, hit the scoreboard or have the power of Ablett and never will. Cousins has endurance and running ability that Parish could dream of. And he isn't going to have Gray's contested ball winning ability or scoreboard impact either.

Marc Murphy would be more the desired outcome for Parish. Ablett, Cousins and Gray is entirely unrealistic for Parish.

I absolutely agree with your 2009 point re taking Talia.

But I do think people are saying we'll pick Milera purely because he is from SA. Many in SA, including myself, think he is overrated. Can't see him being more than a high wing/half forward. Don't think Crows will take him with 1st pick.

With Podsiadly retiring, we don't have any talls who can play forward other than Walker and Jenkins.

So I think the Crows will plan to take a tall with 1st pick as there will be good mids available with their 2nd. If they do take a small with their first, B McKay is a chance for their 2nd

Milera has been linked to Essendon, Gold Coast and Carlton prior to Adelaide's selection. So I don't see it being quite so simple there either regarding being linked to Adelaide.

Given that there is a perception that Milera is the best available player if there. It's up to Adelaide to weight that up against McKay and others.

You'll hear nothing but agreement regarding Adelaide's need for another key forward though. It's just up to Adelaide to evaluate whether they see someone in this draft who can prove worthwhile at a particular selection.

this is what a hawks supporter put on our thread

Speculation has it that Dunkley may have gone with the father son option hoping that a Victorian team bids on him and the swans pass on the opportunity to bid on him as a father son selection at that pick/s.

What are your thoughts KM ?

All sorts of theories possible.

Maybe Dunkley is sold on Sydney's player development. Maybe he wants that certainty of ensuring he is drafted - by allowing Sydney to nominate him.

It's not out of the question a club puts in a bid greater than that which Sydney are willing to match as they may not be willing to go into deficit or may favour some other players at particular draft positions.

It's a wait and see situation with more definite information perhaps available later.

 

[VanDemonxx]

KM, Could/should the demons pick Clayton oliver at pick 3?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, Could/should the demons pick Clayton oliver at pick 3?

Will Melbourne take Oliver at 3? I'm not hearing that. With Melbourne's second first round selection plausible if there.

Should Melbourne take Oliver? Bringing in my personal opinion. I would. He can be something like an Oliver Wines equivalent in this draft if things go right.

 

[scanlon]

KM, Could/should the demons pick Clayton oliver at pick 3?

big chance

 

[VanDemonxx]

Will Melbourne take Oliver at 3? I'm not hearing that. With Melbourne's second first round selection plausible if there.

Should Melbourne take Oliver? Bringing in my personal opinion. I would. He can be something like an Oliver Wines equivalent in this draft if things go right.

Brett Anderson has reported that there is a strong chance and he is in contention. I honestly reckon that Oliver will become the better player but Parish has the outside game that we desperately need. Clubs will get it right. They know more than we do.

 

[scanlon]

Brett Anderson has reported that there is a strong chance and he is in contention. I honestly reckon that Oliver will become the better player but Parish has the outside game that we desperately need. Clubs will get it right. They know more than we do.

Essendon arent keen on Parish apparently so big chance they could get Parish at their second pick. Unless Essendon are just playing games

 

[VanDemonxx]

Essendon arent keen on Parish apparently so big chance they could get Parish at their second pick. Unless Essendon are just playing games

I think they were convinced he was a lock at 3 so they lost contact. These are the 2 best non academy mids in the draft IMO, Essendon and melbourne will get 1 each

 

[AusTerran]

Is there any live streaming for people who don't have foxtel or does the afl website just do the usual and do a list form?

From the AFL web site: TV: Fox Footy & AFL Live Official App 6:30pm AEDT
If you google... I'm sure you'll have a live stream some where... some how... no idea what I am typing... please ignore me Mods

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Been reported he will have to be "managed" carefully for the next 2 years...big risk to use a 1st round pick on IMO.

Where was that reported ? .....two year investment at 18YO would appear a similar investment period the Bulldogs put in on Stringer?

 

[kaistar]

Knight one of my mates Seb Gotch is playing cricket for Australia under 22 squad at the moment. But I know that he had to chose between AFL and Cricket. He chose cricket because he thought he was better at it, but he did train wth GWS under 17s. Do you know of him? Do you reckon if he wanted to come back to AFL he would make it to a list?

 

[SumTingWong]

KM,
How does Burton's injury compare to that of Stringer and what is the consensus on the chances of him being able to reach a high level of football as Stringer has?

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

Shane Yarran any chance to get drafted or just rookie draft?

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

Knight one of my mates Seb Gotch is playing cricket for Australia under 22 squad at the moment. But I know that he had to chose between AFL and Cricket. He chose cricket because he thought he was better at it, but he did train wth GWS under 17s. Do you know of him? Do you reckon if he wanted to come back to AFL he would make it to a list?

My boys played cricket against him, along with Toby Greene and Fletcher Roberts. Gotch was a superstar junior cricketer

 

[lunacy]

I absolutely agree with your 2009 point re taking Talia.

But I do think people are saying we'll pick Milera purely because he is from SA. Many in SA, including myself, think he is overrated. Can't see him being more than a high wing/half forward. Don't think Crows will take him with 1st pick.

With Podsiadly retiring, we don't have any talls who can play forward other than Walker and Jenkins.

So I think the Crows will plan to take a tall with 1st pick as there will be good mids available with their 2nd. If they do take a small with their first, B McKay is a chance for their 2nd

I think Milera is a gun and I'd love the Crows to get him. I reckon you are massively underrating him and pigeon holeing him as a typical flashy outside indigenous player.

I actually think he'll be able to play on ball eventually too. He is great in traffic, has clean hands, quick hands, evasive, hardly ever gets tackled. A bit like Robbie Gray in that sense.

I see him more as the McLeod/Burgoyne type than a soft flashy limited outside player.

 

[Knightmare]

Brett Anderson has reported that there is a strong chance and he is in contention. I honestly reckon that Oliver will become the better player but Parish has the outside game that we desperately need. Clubs will get it right. They know more than we do.

In reading up on who clubs are looking at, and more specifically Melbourne. The sense seems they are not keen on Parish at 3, Weideman performed terribly in testing and has gone down some draft boards then Curnow with his recent incident while he is still in the mix for that selection, with Paul Roos as coach I can't see him supporting the selection of Curnow which leaves Oliver who seems in the mix for both Melbourne and Essendon early.

Knight one of my mates Seb Gotch is playing cricket for Australia under 22 squad at the moment. But I know that he had to chose between AFL and Cricket. He chose cricket because he thought he was better at it, but he did train wth GWS under 17s. Do you know of him? Do you reckon if he wanted to come back to AFL he would make it to a list?

Gotch as a very small type from memory had issues by foot, so I wouldn't expect him to get selected for an AFL list. State League list. Sure. But not an AFL standard talent.

KM,
How does Burton's injury compare to that of Stringer and what is the consensus on the chances of him being able to reach a high level of football as Stringer has?

I don't have the medical information to answer that. I just go off the assumption with all players unless I hear that it simply won't happen is that they'll be fine.

In terms of chances of reaching Stringer's level. I just don't see Burton being in that same conversation as a talent. Good leadup forward but that's who he is, and as such I can't see him in the pros having that kind of impact.

Shane Yarran any chance to get drafted or just rookie draft?

Probably more of a rookie chance. Plausible recruiting choice though.

 

[x_les_x]

Km, last two times u have us taking johnson. I have a heavy feeling he will be taken by north before us. Is there a link there or puerly best avaliable?

 

[Crazy Tails]

Three part question Knightmare

1. Any chance Josh Dunkley makes it to the Pies first pick? (Disregard other Q's if the answer here is No)
2. Do you think he is someone that we might bid on?
3. If we bid at 27 would the Swans match?