Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2016 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

I said he starred, I didn't say he was best on ground.

I find it interesting that you rate Curnow higher, from what I see Burton in a better mark, better kick, better vision - and is a leader. Curnow is not a leader and never will be.

That was Burton's 3rd game of AFL football ever against Collingwood. Burton had 13 weeks out with a plate being removed from his leg, first game back played well in defence, the second game back he kicked 3 goals 5 as a forward and was picked in the senior team and retained his spot for the rest of the year. Rarely do young players get that sort of run in the Hawthorn team, and this kid did it after not playing footy for 2 years, playing a couple of VFL games, missing 13 weeks and playing 2 more games.

He was considered a strong chance to go # 1 in the draft until he was struck down with injury. Would have definitely gone in the top 5.

Burton was effective v Collingwood but then again another 25 players from last years draft in various games last year have had good games at AFL level.

Going top five and being a top five player in a draft are very different things. And while Burton only just snuck in late first round and was projected to go top five going into his draft year, based on the game he offers, I would not have had him inside my top 10 even assuming he was healthy in his draft year. And that's due to the nature of his game.

He is a good leadup forward and has the capacity to be a role player down back. But neither of those things are so valuable relative to what others offer. Given Burton isn't much of a contested ball winner, I'm not seeing any transition to midfield play or to stardom. He'll be a good player right away but likely plateaus after a few years, something like Sam Mayes, though Burton I expect becomes a slightly better player.

Knightmare- who are your top 5 mature agers going into this draft?

Luke Ryan, Liam Ryan, Brett Eddy, Jye Bolton and Rowan Marshall.

Eddy probably goes undrafted and Bolton may not get picked either.

The other three I predict get picked and I wouldn't be surprised to see all three feature inside the national draft.

 

[eth-dog]

Burton was effective v Collingwood but then again another 25 players from last years draft in various games last year have had good games at AFL level.

Going top five and being a top five player in a draft are very different things. And while Burton only just snuck in late first round and was projected to go top five going into his draft year, based on the game he offers, I would not have had him inside my top 10 even assuming he was healthy in his draft year. And that's due to the nature of his game.

He is a good leadup forward and has the capacity to be a role player down back. But neither of those things are so valuable relative to what others offer. Given Burton isn't much of a contested ball winner, I'm not seeing any transition to midfield play or to stardom. He'll be a good player right away but likely plateaus after a few years, something like Sam Mayes, though Burton I expect becomes a slightly better player.



Luke Ryan, Liam Ryan, Brett Eddy, Jye Bolton and Rowan Marshall.

Eddy probably goes undrafted and Bolton may not get picked either.

The other three I predict get picked and I wouldn't be surprised to see all three feature inside the national draft.

I'd have Robby Fox on equal footing to Ryan. Seriously underrated season.

 

[SSSSSS]

Think the Burton assessment is fair enough at this stage. Give him (and the rest of the draft) a couple of years and it will really pan out a bit more. Love your work KM.

 

[mightypowerrrr]

Hi Knightmare, do you think that Luke Reynolds from Port Maggies will get drafted? Also, is it likely that Ainsworth or SPS will slip to Port's Pick #9? Ainsworth reminds me so much of Robbie Gray.

 

[John_Proctor]

Hi km, just wondering if there are many 2017 academy prospects for the northern clubs (or father sons for all clubs I suppose) that might influence how clubs trade this year eg. Trying to bank future picks to shore up points.

Cheers.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I said he starred, I didn't say he was best on ground.

I find it interesting that you rate Curnow higher, from what I see Burton in a better mark, better kick, better vision - and is a leader. Curnow is not a leader and never will be.

That was Burton's 3rd game of AFL football ever against Collingwood. Burton had 13 weeks out with a plate being removed from his leg, first game back played well in defence, the second game back he kicked 3 goals 5 as a forward and was picked in the senior team and retained his spot for the rest of the year. Rarely do young players get that sort of run in the Hawthorn team, and this kid did it after not playing footy for 2 years, playing a couple of VFL games, missing 13 weeks and playing 2 more games.

He was considered a strong chance to go # 1 in the draft until he was struck down with injury. Would have definitely gone in the top 5.

Curnow is infintely better than Burton. Curnow will be in the top 5 players of that draft. Bery surprised Curnow wasnt included in Knightmare's 15 earlier.

 

[SumTingWong]

KM, How has Tyler Keitel's season been. Is he a chance to be drafted?

 

[Bicks]

Knightmare thought you might be interested..."our" boy Willem Drew playing for his local team the Koroit Saints against North Warrnambool in the Hampden Football League A Grade Grand Final today won the Roy Hoy Medal for B.O.G., absolutely dominated in the second half, Jarrod Korewha his teammate also had a good game.

http://websites.sportstg.com/round_...24897037&pool=1001&fixture=124743103&a=SELECT

 

[CrusaderAussie1]

https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/s...laremont-face-east-perth-in-wafl-colts-final/

Just some stuff on local colts final , love the SPS comment , dies out perspective into footy courage/ bravery

 

[Knightmare]

I'd have Robby Fox on equal footing to Ryan. Seriously underrated season.

Fox has had a strong season. I don't have him with Ryan, but he is a potentially draftable player.

Hi Knightmare, do you think that Luke Reynolds from Port Maggies will get drafted? Also, is it likely that Ainsworth or SPS will slip to Port's Pick #9? Ainsworth reminds me so much of Robbie Gray.

Haven't heard much talk about Reynolds this year. He has improved well this year and surprised with his scoreboard impact. Needs another year of improvement before being selected I'd expect.

Unlikely that Ainsworth or SPS will be there at pick 9. If there either would offer good value.

Hi km, just wondering if there are many 2017 academy prospects for the northern clubs (or father sons for all clubs I suppose) that might influence how clubs trade this year eg. Trying to bank future picks to shore up points.

Cheers.

Expect more of the same next season with more good talents to come through the academies next season.

The four clubs will be looking for more future picks once again.

Curnow is infintely better than Burton. Curnow will be in the top 5 players of that draft. Bery surprised Curnow wasnt included in Knightmare's 15 earlier.

As per my previous comments I rate Curnow ahead of Burton. Curnow is in my top 20 for 2015 but will need another year in the system and playing AFL standard footy to convince me that he should be higher.

KM, How has Tyler Keitel's season been. Is he a chance to be drafted?

I've liked Keitel's season and have mentioned him throughout the season as my preferred mature age key defender. Possible late/rookie.

Knightmare thought you might be interested..."our" boy Willem Drew playing for his local team the Koroit Saints against North Warrnambool in the Hampden Football League A Grade Grand Final today won the Roy Hoy Medal for B.O.G., absolutely dominated in the second half, Jarrod Korewha his teammate also had a good game.

http://websites.sportstg.com/round_...24897037&pool=1001&fixture=124743103&a=SELECT

Good to hear Drew and Korewha both go well. No surprise to hear Drew going so well. Just stick him around the ball on any team and he'll have a big influence.

 

[Bicks]

Good to hear Drew and Korewha both go well. No surprise to hear Drew going so well. Just stick him around the ball on any team and he'll have a big influence.

 

[Danger in Texas]

You have to change your order every year as you see more, players develop and others don't.

As a quick (revised) top 15 I'd go with:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Jacob Hopper
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Callum Mills
5. Joshua Schache
6. Matthew Kennedy
7. Darcy Parish
8. Eric Hipwood
9. Harrison Himmelberg
10. Josh Dunkley
11. Brayden Fiorini
12. Ryan Clarke
13. Aaron Francis
14. Rhys Mathieson
15. Darcy Tucker

Around where would you rate Milera at the moment? Probably performed about to expectation this year IMO, 8 games with impact in some of them

 

[theGav56]

You have to change your order every year as you see more, players develop and others don't.

As a quick (revised) top 15 I'd go with:
1. Jacob Weitering
2. Jacob Hopper
3. Clayton Oliver
4. Callum Mills
5. Joshua Schache
6. Matthew Kennedy
7. Darcy Parish
8. Eric Hipwood
9. Harrison Himmelberg
10. Josh Dunkley
11. Brayden Fiorini
12. Ryan Clarke
13. Aaron Francis
14. Rhys Mathieson
15. Darcy Tucker

Nice to see Tucker cracking your list. He has a developed body for AFL and in our current situation has a fast track opportunity to become best 22.

This time next year Balic is a chance to be in that list. Will play today in the wafl GF, and has got the injured wrist fixed. There is a bit of excitement about those 2 boys.

 

[chargers 09]

A few Dragons boys raised their stocks today Knightmare. McGrath being the obvious one.


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[Procrastinator35]

Curnow is infinitely better than Burton. Curnow will be in the top 5 players of that draft. Very surprised Curnow wasn't included in Knightmare's 15 earlier.

Now this is both groundless & silly.

 

[avishka5]

Waterman with bog in the colts gf with 4 goals 8 marks and 20 touches.Hopefully he still remains as a third round selection for us.

 

[Saucy]

Hey Knightmare, do you think Essendon would show any interest in Ben Long? And what round would he be going in?

 

[FlowersByIrene]

Knightmare, can McGrath, Scrimshaw and Ainsworth play centre bounce midfield at AFL level? Or will they be perrenial flankers at the top stage? Hoping the answer is yes to McGrath and Scrimshaw, really want either of them

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[HedgeFund]

Hey KM, let's say a player was playing KPD at TAC Level, and he played on Josh Battle, Brett Blair and Todd Marshall, and he kept those three players to a total of 14 possessions over three finals (4.33 average).

Let's just say he also racked up 44 possessions himself (14.67 average) and just won a TAC cup premiership.

Would anyone take notice of that?

 

[Knightmare]

Around where would you rate Milera at the moment? Probably performed about to expectation this year IMO, 8 games with impact in some of them

Top 25 and somewhere around 20 from last years group.

Showed some glimpses without starring.

I probably expected more than he showed.

But still early and plenty of time. He has the talent to in time become a regular with work.

Nice to see Tucker cracking your list. He has a developed body for AFL and in our current situation has a fast track opportunity to become best 22.

This time next year Balic is a chance to be in that list. Will play today in the wafl GF, and has got the injured wrist fixed. There is a bit of excitement about those 2 boys.

I wasn't massive on Tucker this time last year but on performance both at AFL level looking very solid and in the WAFL, he earned his way up.

Balic I still view as a questionmark until he's not. As per my draft last year I wasn't huge on him, and he's still working to establish himself.

A few Dragons boys raised their stocks today Knightmare. McGrath being the obvious one.

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If I was to say someone raised their stocks today from Sandy. I'd say Florent more so. McGrath is already rated and that was while a very good game not one of his better 2-3 for the season.

Waterman with bog in the colts gf with 4 goals 8 marks and 20 touches.Hopefully he still remains as a third round selection for us.

I see it as being against the odds Waterman features inside the first two rounds. You likely will have your wish I'm predicting at this stage.

Good performer, but isn't an even good kick and isn't super quick or agile. There will be some interest but there is enough quality ahead of him to see Waterman rated as something like a second half of the national draft selection.

Hey Knightmare, do you think Essendon would show any interest in Ben Long? And what round would he be going in?

Ben Long looks like a possible late/rookie pick. Top ager with some talent but hasn't been overwhelmingly great.

Knightmare, can McGrath, Scrimshaw and Ainsworth play centre bounce midfield at AFL level? Or will they be perrenial flankers at the top stage? Hoping the answer is yes to McGrath and Scrimshaw, really want either of them

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McGrath and Ainsworth both can play at centre bounces as required, though I'm not convinced they'd be outstanding as full time midfielders. I feel their value is elsewhere so they likely both only pinch-hit through there which feels better suited to their respective games.

McGrath does his best work running off half back and providing overlap run in support and going at speed the length of the field.

Ainsworth by contrast does his best work inside 50m overhead - be it elevating vertically or taking some kind of mark in the front 50m. It's being a difficult matchup and being hard to defend i50 that makes him a worthwhile recruiting choice.

Scrimshaw is more of an unknown. He is a less established player with greater flaws, but more intriguing strengths. He isn't a contested ball winner so given that I'm not going to back him in to develop into a midfielder. I look at him more as a creator of half back and potentially pushing forward of onto a wing.

Hey KM, let's say a player was playing KPD at TAC Level, and he played on Josh Battle, Brett Blair and Todd Marshall, and he kept those three players to a total of 14 possessions over three finals (4.33 average).

Let's just say he also racked up 44 possessions himself (14.67 average) and just won a TAC cup premiership.

Would anyone take notice of that?

Sakeson has had a good finals series.

At 190cm, 81kg as a lockdown key defender though it's hard to see from an AFL perspective where there could be a role for him.

 

[eDPS]

Hey KM, let's say a player was playing KPD at TAC Level, and he played on Josh Battle, Brett Blair and Todd Marshall, and he kept those three players to a total of 14 possessions over three finals (4.33 average).

Let's just say he also racked up 44 possessions himself (14.67 average) and just won a TAC cup premiership.

Would anyone take notice of that?

Ari has some real talent although he was smashed by Stephenson in the first final. Has great agility and leap and a lot of scope for improvement. Id take him in the main draft for sure.

 

[avishka5]

Top 25 and somewhere around 20 fr

I see it as being against the odds Waterman features inside the first two rounds. You likely will have your wish I'm predicting at this stage.

Good performer, but isn't an even good kick and isn't super quick or agile. There will be some interest but there is enough quality ahead of him to see Waterman rated as something like a second half of the national draft selection.

.

where would you rateis jake if he was 3 to 4cm taller (around 195cm)?

 

[Matt_352]

Links to my content on ESPN for convenience:


AFL Draft Power Rankings (May) *including draft profiles:

2.5.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15439491/may

1.6.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15839175/june

5.7.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/16690432/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-july

8.8.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17235184/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-august

5.9.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17462889/knightmare-afl-draft-power-rankings-september

AFL Draft Previews:

25.5.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15714163/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-club-first-pick-predictions

21.7.2016 (The 10 burning questions ahead of this years AFL draft)
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17110379/the-10-burning-questions-ahead-2016-afl-draft


Weekly AFL Draft Wrap *weekly review of AFL u18 performances around the country:

20.4.2016:
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ap-hugh-mccluggage-fire-north-ballarat-rebels

27.4.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...wrap-brandon-parfitt-stars-northern-territory

4.5.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-afl-draft-wrap-myles-poholke-set-afl-stardom

11.5.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...wrap-jy-simpkin-first-round-chance-broken-leg

18.5.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15580612/jordan-gallucci-showcases-class?ex_cid=espnTW_ANZL

2.6.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/15886728/jack-bowes-firms-possible-no1-pick

8.6.2016 (U18 Championships, division 1, round 1 review)
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/16038795/powell-pepper-class-show-wa

16.6.2016 (U18 Championships,division 1, round 2 review)
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/16235926/knighmare-afl-draft-wrap-brodie-standout-vic-country

22.6.2016 (U18 Championships, division 1, round 3 review)
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/16409565/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-joshua-rotham-fire-wa

30.6.2016 (U18 Championships, division 1, round 4 review)
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-draft-wrap-scharenberg-stars-south-australia

6.7.2016 (U18 Championships, division 1, round 5 review)
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/16816418/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-18-championships

13.7.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...raft-wrap-scrimshaw-fires-sandringham-dragons

28.7.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-draft-wrap-allsop-not-invited-combine-chance

4.8.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-wrap-joshua-begley-continues-improve-eastern

10.8.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...fl-draft-wrap-ben-ainsworth-chance-number-one

18.8.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...afl-draft-wrap-todd-marshall-next-darcy-moore

25.8.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-wrap-jack-graham-rising-rankings-sanfl-clash

1.9.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...seph-atley-follow-brother-shaun-being-drafted

7.9.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...rap-willem-drew-pushing-first-round-selection

15.9.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...raft-wrap-tim-taranto-genuine-top-10-prospect

21.9.2016
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/17598612/knightmare-afl-draft-wrap-hayward-fires-sanfl-final

No love for Logue or Kerr in your power rankings?

 

[Knightmare]

where would you rateis jake if he was 3 to 4cm taller (around 195cm)?

2nd round.

No love for Logue or Kerr in your power rankings?

Logue is on the fringe but just outside.

Kerr I don't have all that close to my top 30.

 

[bird_man]

Knightmare what makes you have Drew ahead of Taranto in your power rankings? I would have though Drew was a long long way behind Taranto?