Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2017 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Hi KM I get the feeling pick 1 is coming down between LDU and Rayner , tough choice for the lions , if you were them which way would you go ?

Hearing Clark and Allan mentioned for later , but Clark would be unlikely , any likely lion picks you think may happen

Cheers

I slightly favour Rayner, but they're pretty much equal for me. LDU if I wanted a more immediate midfielder, Rayner if I was ok with someone who probably starts his career more as a forward.

Hi KN, just wondering who you rate as the best dual-sided player in this draft? And not from combine testing perspective but real game time where they're actually under pressure?

If in space, Hunter Clark would be the dual sider I'd bet on, as the only real genuine duel sider in the draft who is just as good on either side. Under pressure I don't love him as much.

Under pressure, maybe Jack Higgins, as one of the others who goes ok on both sides but still makes good decisions and executes reasonably reliably under pressure.

 

[HedgeFund]

If in space, Hunter Clark would be the dual sider I'd bet on, as the only real genuine duel sider in the draft who is just as good on either side. Under pressure I don't love him as much.

Under pressure, maybe Jack Higgins, as one of the others who goes ok on both sides but still makes good decisions and executes reasonably reliably under pressure.

I’ll throw in Angus Styles. Uses the ball by foot equally as well on both sides. Probably won’t get looked at in the draft until pick 45+ but he is definitely a better kick on his non-preferred side than both Clark and Higgins.

 

[big78sam]

Hi KM, a slightly OT question to help make sense of the gibbs trade: how do you rate pick 16 in this draft compared to an early 20s pick next year in a so called super draft? Which is better? Are they similar in value or very different?

 

[Knightmare]

I’ll throw in Angus Styles. Uses the ball by foot equally as well on both sides. Probably won’t get looked at in the draft until pick 45+ but he is definitely a better kick on his non-preferred side than both Clark and Higgins.

Styles is one of the more composed and better ball users in the draft. He'd be in the conversation.

Hi KM, a slightly OT question to help make sense of the gibbs trade: how do you rate pick 16 in this draft compared to an early 20s pick next year in a so called super draft? Which is better? Are they similar in value or very different?

While I view the trade period as a net loss with Charlie Cameron and Jake Lever big impact makers towards winning, as a contender I overall liked the Gibbs trade. He's a multi-positional player in his prime with rare durability. So you're getting what I'd expect to be 20+ games high quality games for the next 5-6 seasons.

Next years draft appears likely the stronger but I'd be taking pick 16 this year given the choice, being the higher selection and with the top 20 pretty solid this year. It's against the odds a pick in the early 20s next year will be worth as much, but the difference being only a few selections isn't likely to be all that much. And with the draft being a lottery, while it's slightly against the odds, it's possible Adelaide's second round pick next year works out better than whoever goes pick 16.

 

[Moeydw]

Who do you think will be the player outside the top 5 that in a few years time people will be wondering how they slipped outside the top 5? (eg. Charlie Curnow)

 

[HedgeFund]

Who do you think will be the player outside the top 5 that in a few years time people will be wondering how they slipped outside the top 5? (eg. Charlie Curnow)

None.

As long as they don’t get busted 4 days before the draft at 3.30am refusing a breath test and losing their licence for 2 years (and putting a few clubs well and truly off them), then they won’t end up “slipping out of the top 5 like Curnow did”.

 

[Saucy]

Hey Knightmare. Are either of these picks a remote possibility for the bombers?

Pick 48 - Tom North
Pick 67 - Tom De Koning

 

[dean33]

Hey KM, You have the tigers being able to use their first 2 picks before grabbing naish. So you don’t see a bid for him in the first 20 picks? That would be a great result for the tigers if it happens.

 

[hammer63]

Hey Knightmare enjoy your work. Do you see Geordie Nagle being a chance in the draft. Had a solid year in the back line this year.



On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Moeydw]

None.

As long as they don’t get busted 4 days before the draft at 3.30am refusing a breath test and losing their licence for 2 years (and putting a few clubs well and truly off them), then they won’t end up “slipping out of the top 5 like Curnow did”.

Wasn't Curnow still expected to go after Francis before that incident?

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Strange question KM but who did you rate pre-draft in any year who disappointed you by pissing it away?

 

[Ralphyboy]

Hi,

Do you have access to who the four Northern Academies: Swans, GWS, Bris, GC nominated for the draft? It would be interesting to know who they have indicated they want to possibly draft.

 

[HedgeFund]

Hey Knightmare enjoy your work. Do you see Geordie Nagle being a chance in the draft. Had a solid year in the back line this year.



On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Should be rookied - wins the club B&F for the best Metro outfit. More 25+ effective possession games than anyone else in the TAC. Makes sense to me.

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you think will be the player outside the top 5 that in a few years time people will be wondering how they slipped outside the top 5? (eg. Charlie Curnow)

The top four as people are say look solid. It's just a question of that fifth player.

Noah Balta is someone with the talent to potentially make clubs regret passing on him. Darcy Fogarty maybe if not picked top 5. Charlie Ballard if things go right has the scope to develop into a monster. It depends on how a lot of them develop. There might be a late bloomer along the lines of Ballard, or someone else who far exceeds expectation.

The top 4/5 aren't typically the best few in the draft when you look back in reflection. It could be anyone, from anywhere in the draft.

Hey Knightmare. Are either of these picks a remote possibility for the bombers?

Pick 48 - Tom North
Pick 67 - Tom De Koning

Both are possible picks, as two who may be available at those selections.

Hey KM, You have the tigers being able to use their first 2 picks before grabbing naish. So you don’t see a bid for him in the first 20 picks? That would be a great result for the tigers if it happens.

I see a bid for Naish around pick 20. Maybe happen just before, but for now I'll give Richmond the benefit of the doubt, as clubs tend to be on the conservative side with bidding.

Hey Knightmare enjoy your work. Do you see Geordie Nagle being a chance in the draft. Had a solid year in the back line this year.

On iPad using BigFooty.com mobile app

Nagle is draftable and is in the mix, but as a state combine invite rather than national combine invite, he's a far from certain selection.

Strange question KM but who did you rate pre-draft in any year who disappointed you by pissing it away?

This year, Tyrone Hayes. He looked like a possible first round choice coming into the season. Played for Vic Country last year as an underager but is not in the draft mix this year, only getting selected for just the one TAC Cup game for Gippsland.

Hi,

Do you have access to who the four Northern Academies: Swans, GWS, Bris, GC nominated for the draft? It would be interesting to know who they have indicated they want to possibly draft.

I'm expecting the information to be out there over the next few days.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft Trends for those draft nerds (I had too much fun researching into all this and drawing my conclusions): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21296412/key-trends-recent-afl-drafts

 

[briztoon]

AFL Draft Trends for those draft nerds (I had too much fun researching into all this and drawing my conclusions): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21296412/key-trends-recent-afl-drafts

Hi Knightmare, didn't GWS draft some recycled players last year?

 

[theGav56]

Hi Knightmare, didn't GWS draft some recycled players last year?

Mzungu and de Boer.

 

[Dunny82]

KM, if you had to pick a couple of names from your top 10 or 20 who would you guess has the potential to disappoint and turn out to be an ordinary pick?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare, didn't GWS draft some recycled players last year?

De Boer was national draft. So you are right, there was the one recycled player in 2016 draft.

Mzungu was rookie draft.

I was just counting the national draft choices.

--
If anyone is interested in the full national draft lists I'm more than happy to share on here. I had De Boer listed on there but missed him in my final count.

I have more detailed lists with the full lists of players. Same goes with all the player heights from inside the top 20 including mids/flankers.

KM, if you had to pick a couple of names from your top 10 or 20 who would you guess has the potential to disappoint and turn out to be an ordinary pick?

The only players I look at as certainties are Rayner, LDU, Cerra, Dow and Higgins. After that, anyone else could be a flop.

Typically the lower % selections are those who have low numbers as juniors and are low contested possession types. These days clubs are smart enough to know to take guys who can win the contested ball, so as to minimise early draft mistakes. Coffield, O'Brien, Ling, Richards, Ballard, Murphy and Naish are a few I had in my October phantom draft who are question marks as low volume contested ball winners, though Coffield and O'Brien are two who on occasion have won enough. Jarrod Brander and Sam Hayes as talls who have not improved as much as expected this year also concern me, with rate of improvement a key indicator in the development of KPPs and ruckmen. Noah Balta while I like his upside, is no certainty having not been given the opportunity to find a clear best position.

There will be misses certainly inside the top 20, and probably a couple inside the top 10 also, in all likelihood.

 

[Chachi]

Hi Chris. Could you please give me your thoughts on Jackson Ross the former tennis player. Thanks.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Chris. Could you please give me your thoughts on Jackson Ross the former tennis player. Thanks.

Versatile - capable at either end, athletic - has speed/endurance/leap. Strong mark. Long kick. Lightly built but can win enough of the ball.

Overall he's raw, but at 192cm, he's a tall flanker with scope to improve.

 

[ash84]

AFL Draft Trends for those draft nerds (I had too much fun researching into all this and drawing my conclusions): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21296412/key-trends-recent-afl-drafts

Knightmare great article, going off that do you see it less likely that the Pies would use pick 6 on Brander?

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare great article, going off that do you see it less likely that the Pies would use pick 6 on Brander?

I'm not expecting Brander to go top 10. He's had a poor year. Averaging 0.5 goals, 2.5 marks and 5 disposals over his last two TAC Cup games is not good enough. Fogarty and Naughton are the two I'm seeing as possible KPPs to feature inside the top 10, and probably considerations from Collingwood.

 

[ash84]

I'm not expecting Brander to go top 10. He's had a poor year. Averaging 0.5 goals, 2.5 marks and 5 disposals over his last two TAC Cup games is not good enough. Fogarty and Naughton are the two I'm seeing as possible KPPs to feature inside the top 10, and probably considerations from Collingwood.

That's good to hear! Fogarty is the top of my hit list. I could handle Naughton if thats what the club went with.

 

[Magpiesweloveu]

I think Pies will select Naughton at pick 6. My conspiracy theory is, we pick key defender knowing Tom Lynch is coming next year through free agency or, we select best key position fwd, Fogarty. Thoughts??