Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2019 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

i also see Stephens as a bit over-rated, he does have good numbers at SANFL , but i felt he was too skinny, too left sided and with less impact than i would expect from a first rounder especially a top 10 pick, i also really liked Harry Schoenberg, his work rate, repeat sprints out of contests and his good use of the ball, but i disagree on your low rating of Serong, as you say he is tough wins important clearances and can kick goals fairly accurately, but i believe his general ball use is better than you and Lemming think it is, in fact i thought the opposite to you guys in that Flanders was a bit disappointing by foot and Serong was more likely to hit a target.

Going into the Championships I didn't have major issue with Serong's kicking, but I found consistently over the weeks the placement of more kicks than not just weren't in markable spots for any of his targets (with and without pressure applied to him). So I'm really strong on it being a weakness unless it looks much better in NAB League over the second half of the season.

Flanders' placement on the other hand, decision making and vision I found overall good.

If you go back through the Country v SA game and look at each of Serong's kicks I'd be interested if your view changes. I didn't think his kicking was good v WA either. Nor v the Allies.

Not sure if you've listened to much of him but Nick Dal Santo hammers home the point of opposite foot kicking for me. "Most kids are going to find a way to get on their main foot, and if not you only need to get direction from an opposite foot kick"

If you view Stephens development as an AFL level Winger, which most do AFAIK, then being one sided isn't bad, it can be a hindrance as a rover but not as much as some make it out to be

I haven't heard any Dal Santo commentary. Is he on Fox I'm assuming?

I'm relatively of a similar perspective with regard to being one sided. I don't see it as something that will stop you from having a career by any means. It's just something where in an ideal world a player can go onto the other side if required and Stephens really looked uncomfortable in those instances where he was pressured and there just wasn't that opportunity.

As with my Ben Johnson example. Stephens only used his left and would go further left to ensure he could get onto his left. Even on his preferred left though I didn't find him damaging and even felt at times he was somewhat unreliable which wasn't what I was expecting based on the hype coming out of SA leading into the Champs and based on what I'd seen of him previously.

 

[Knightmare]

Isaac Smith has made a career out of it on the wing….Probably the one spot you can get away with it....Mind you, Isaac always uses his running jets to allow him the time & space necessary to utilise his left side....Stephens seems to have those same jets.

I see high work rate with Stephens - he has the endurance, two way running, above average agility and evasion. I'm not seeing him as having the kind of speed nor linebreaking capabilities of Isaac though. Smith really has the jets. Stephens is quick but not a line-breaker on anything close to that level. His running is more Ben Johnson or for a more modern example though not quite as accurate Matt Suckling (without that penetration on the kick) but slightly better ball winning capabilities being relatively less allergic to winning his own ball, without it being a strong suit.

 

[PMBangers]

I haven't heard any Dal Santo commentary. Is he on Fox I'm assuming?

I'm relatively of a similar perspective with regard to being one sided. I don't see it as something that will stop you from having a career by any means. It's just something where in an ideal world a player can go onto the other side if required and Stephens really looked uncomfortable in those instances where he was pressured and there just wasn't that opportunity.

As with my Ben Johnson example. Stephens only used his left and would go further left to ensure he could get onto his left. Even on his preferred left though I didn't find him damaging and even felt at times he was somewhat unreliable which wasn't what I was expecting based on the hype coming out of SA leading into the Champs and based on what I'd seen of him previously.

Yeah he's on Fox, but also been fortunate enough to hear him speak live at different events where he's said the same thing.

I see where you're coming from with Stephens reluctance to use his right under any circumstances but think most AFL players nowadays are similar, with really only Sidebottom coming to mind as someone frequently using either side. If Stephens starts as a Half Forward/wing with the view of moving into a rover position I'm confident that it wouldn't be all that troublesome during the first couple of years, and in that time development staff would focus on improving the right side

I rate him highly though, don't share the same concerns as a lot on here towards his inside game

 

[Knightmare]

Yeah he's on Fox, but also been fortunate enough to hear him speak live at different events where he's said the same thing.

I see where you're coming from with Stephens reluctance to use his right under any circumstances but think most AFL players nowadays are similar, with really only Sidebottom coming to mind as someone frequently using either side. If Stephens starts as a Half Forward/wing with the view of moving into a rover position I'm confident that it wouldn't be all that troublesome during the first couple of years, and in that time development staff would focus on improving the right side

I rate him highly though, don't share the same concerns as a lot on here towards his inside game

With Stephens I went into the Champs thinking he would be more skillful, more damaging and a stronger contested ball winner. So that's largely where my feeling of being underwhelmed by him is stemming from.

I don't look at the contested side of his game as being much of a concern as much as noticing - oh, he's an outside player.

What do you see Stephens' point of difference as being? The way I see him. He's high motor and has the work rate/endurance and finds a fair bit of the footy. And maybe that's enough. But that's what I'm seeing him as having. To rate him any higher than maybe something like the 30th best in the pool or so, I really want more. Just not having that extreme speed, or damaging skills. He's those one or two tricks short of having me convinced that he'll displace anyone at AFL level and earn his position.

 

[FAITH]

#underrated



My view of Serong mirrors your own.

How do you guys rate Stephens? If so how high?

I think I mentioned it earlier. But I'm seeing him as too one sided (always goes left), feels more outside than I'd like and not as damage as I'd like either. More just a good but not great mid with a high work rate who is appropriate for selection more mid draft if anything. Reminds me a lot of Ben Johnson (Collingwood). Stephens is someone I want to rate and like the look of his numbers on paper, but ultimately it's what they do on the field that matters, and Stephens wasn't what I was hoping he would be.

I prefer Gould/Schoenberg/Hilder/Mead of the SA boys to Stephens.

Stephens and Taheny play for my local club so seen a lot of them.
A lot of comparison of Stephens to Gaff as a kid, but a little unfair as Gaff was a gun Jr, Stephens isn't in that category. If i could compare him to any current player its probably Jared Polec from North. Watched Polec a lot as a Jr too and very similar.

For some reason, i prefer Taheny as a player, just has more x-factor to Stephens, but wouldnt surprise me if Stephens goes sort of 12-15 range before Taheny.

 

[Knightmare]

Stephens and Taheny play for my local club so seen a lot of them.
A lot of comparison of Stephens to Gaff as a kid, but a little unfair as Gaff was a gun Jr, Stephens isn't in that category. If i could compare him to any current player its probably Jared Polec from North. Watched Polec a lot as a Jr too and very similar.

For some reason, i prefer Taheny as a player, just has more x-factor to Stephens, but wouldnt surprise me if Stephens goes sort of 12-15 range before Taheny.

Taheny was another I have in that category of underwhelming, and I understand he wasn't in tip top shape, but even from past viewing he is someone I want to really like but haven't fallen in love with the game of as much as I'd like considering the hype. He'll kick his goals, but other than those moments where he gets his two goals or so, he's invisible for the rest of the game and it feels that way every time I watch him. I have him behind Stephens and wouldn't be using a top 30 pick on him unless he out and out dominates over the second half of the season.

 

[FAITH]

Taheny was another I have in that category of underwhelming, and I understand he wasn't in tip top shape, but even from past viewing he is someone I want to really like but haven't fallen in love with the game of as much as I'd like considering the hype. He'll kick his goals, but other than those moments where he gets his two goals or so, he's invisible for the rest of the game and it feels that way every time I watch him. I have him behind Stephens and wouldn't be using a top 30 pick on him unless he out and out dominates over the second half of the season.

Taheny has shown enough at Seniors for Norwood to suggest this kid is quality. A part of me thinks he could be the next Troy Menzel, where things are just too easy for him at sanfl level, so not sure if he has the work ethic to make it in the AFL.
But if he puts in, he could be anything.

Ive got Taheny in that 12ish mark in the draft, but again i don't know enough about his desire to make it at afl.

 

[LemmingMaster]

Taheny has shown enough at Seniors for Norwood to suggest this kid is quality. A part of me thinks he could be the next Troy Menzel, where things are just too easy for him at sanfl level, so not sure if he has the work ethic to make it in the AFL.
But if he puts in, he could be anything.

Ive got Taheny in that 12ish mark in the draft, but again i don't know enough about his desire to make it at afl.

This is when talking to the player and coaches would help a heap. Really makes it hard for us mug punters to predict his potential, he can leave egg on your face either way. He has the talent, but could be a hero or zero.

 

[Knightmare]

This is when talking to the player and coaches would help a heap. Really makes it hard for us mug punters to predict his potential, he can leave egg on your face either way. He has the talent, but could be a hero or zero.

What I enjoy doing. And I'm yet to meet a recruiter who does this consistently. But I like positioning myself at games close to one of the interchange benches. It's a great way to get insight into the players on the side. Just sitting near the WA bench v Country at Docklands, it gave me a great insight into the players personalities. Seeing Henry with his secret handshake with a couple of players. Seeing another player I'd brand as soft/overly dramatic and someone I wouldn't draft (I won't mention names in this case to wreck reputations). Seeing the leadership of Deven Robertson and I'll draw upon one particular example in my weekly wrap when I cover him. I consider this kind of insight as invaluable and more than anything the benefit of attending games in person - giving you that context of when guys are out of the game with whatever they're out with and what have you. Recruiters no doubt avoid doing this because they don't want to get annoyed by parents/families/kids, but for me doing what I do and not having that access to the coaches/players, it's a great way to get this insight into who the kids are, how they interact, how they take feedback, see their emotions, see how vocal, how well liked etc.

 

[PMBangers]

With Stephens I went into the Champs thinking he would be more skillful, more damaging and a stronger contested ball winner. So that's largely where my feeling of being underwhelmed by him is stemming from.

I don't look at the contested side of his game as being much of a concern as much as noticing - oh, he's an outside player.

What do you see Stephens' point of difference as being? The way I see him. He's high motor and has the work rate/endurance and finds a fair bit of the footy. And maybe that's enough. But that's what I'm seeing him as having. To rate him any higher than maybe something like the 30th best in the pool or so, I really want more. Just not having that extreme speed, or damaging skills. He's those one or two tricks short of having me convinced that he'll displace anyone at AFL level and earn his position.

I think Stephens is a smart player and while he's probably just a vanilla hybrid midfielder he does well enough to warrant the higher rating, a bit like Deven Robertson is a pretty stock standard inside mid, but it shouldn't be held against them. I compare Stephens to Isaac Smith, no real points of difference but still an important player, plays the role well and is reliable. Maybe they're not worth a top 30 pick but you know what you're going to get and reliability to me is a big factor in my rankings

 

[Halways]

What I enjoy doing. And I'm yet to meet a recruiter who does this consistently. But I like positioning myself at games close to one of the interchange benches. It's a great way to get insight into the players on the side. Just sitting near the WA bench v Country at Docklands, it gave me a great insight into the players personalities. Seeing Henry with his secret handshake with a couple of players. Seeing another player I'd brand as soft/overly dramatic and someone I wouldn't draft (I won't mention names in this case to wreck reputations). Seeing the leadership of Deven Robertson and I'll draw upon one particular example in my weekly wrap when I cover him. I consider this kind of insight as invaluable and more than anything the benefit of attending games in person - giving you that context of when guys are out of the game with whatever they're out with and what have you. Recruiters no doubt avoid doing this because they don't want to get annoyed by parents/families/kids, but for me doing what I do and not having that access to the coaches/players, it's a great way to get this insight into who the kids are, how they interact, how they take feedback, see their emotions, see how vocal, how well liked etc.

KM - That's great feedback - were there any interesting insights you took away from the SA Vs Allies game ?

 

[Knightmare]

KM - That's great feedback - were there any interesting insights you took away from the SA Vs Allies game ?

SA's bench was uninteresting. Nothing notable, and that's probably a good thing as they were overall a professional and focused unit.

Usually I'll have 1 or 2 things I'll note, but it was a fairly orderly process on the SA bench without anyone showing anything pos/neg that turned me on/off a prospect.

It was really the WA bench and with all the injuries they had that was interesting and more interesting than I normally would enjoy.

 

[LemmingMaster]

It was really the WA bench and with all the injuries they had that was interesting and more interesting than I normally would enjoy.

When I was watching the WA v Metro game live, I was near Summa's box and could hear him talk. You learn a little about certain players from there as well.

 

[FAITH]

I think Stephens is a smart player and while he's probably just a vanilla hybrid midfielder he does well enough to warrant the higher rating, a bit like Deven Robertson is a pretty stock standard inside mid, but it shouldn't be held against them. I compare Stephens to Isaac Smith, no real points of difference but still an important player, plays the role well and is reliable. Maybe they're not worth a top 30 pick but you know what you're going to get and reliability to me is a big factor in my rankings

I don't follow the kids as closely as KM, but would be amazed if Stephens doesn't go top 20, probably top 15.

 

[PMBangers]

I don't follow the kids as closely as KM, but would be amazed if Stephens doesn't go top 20, probably top 15.

I don't think there's any doubt about that, we're debating our personal rankings of him

 

[Turbocat]

What I enjoy doing. And I'm yet to meet a recruiter who does this consistently. But I like positioning myself at games close to one of the interchange benches. It's a great way to get insight into the players on the side. Just sitting near the WA bench v Country at Docklands, it gave me a great insight into the players personalities. Seeing Henry with his secret handshake with a couple of players. Seeing another player I'd brand as soft/overly dramatic and someone I wouldn't draft (I won't mention names in this case to wreck reputations). Seeing the leadership of Deven Robertson and I'll draw upon one particular example in my weekly wrap when I cover him. I consider this kind of insight as invaluable and more than anything the benefit of attending games in person - giving you that context of when guys are out of the game with whatever they're out with and what have you. Recruiters no doubt avoid doing this because they don't want to get annoyed by parents/families/kids, but for me doing what I do and not having that access to the coaches/players, it's a great way to get this insight into who the kids are, how they interact, how they take feedback, see their emotions, see how vocal, how well liked etc.

Great insight... do you balance that with some stats ..to give you some data? I was thinking tonight watching Geelong get flogged again at contested ball that I like to know the best 10 contested ball mids for the draft coming... Im sure Roberston would be handy in it but I suspect in your role it would be handy to have some real data to back up impressions..

 

[Halways]

Great insight... do you balance that with some stats ..to give you some data? I was thinking tonight watching Geelong get flogged again at contested ball that I like to know the best 10 contested ball mids for the draft coming... Im sure Roberston would be handy in it but I suspect in your role it would be handy to have some real data to back up impressions..

Ironically I'm just looking at that tonight (rank is by DC Point order high to low)

 

[briztoon]

Ironically I'm just looking at that tonight (rank is by DC Point order high to low)

View attachment 704648

Do you have a link?

 

[Halways]

Do you have a link?

Just worked out where the attach files button is ! ....

 

[Knightmare]

When I was watching the WA v Metro game live, I was near Summa's box and could hear him talk. You learn a little about certain players from there as well.

Absolutely that's a good spot to be. Anything interesting you heard you'd like to share?

If I had a scouting team at a game I'd have one scout positioned on either side of each club bench and another scout positioned next to each coaches box.

I don't follow the kids as closely as KM, but would be amazed if Stephens doesn't go top 20, probably top 15.

The talk is Stephens goes top 15.

It's one of those cases where I could create a phantom draft, but it's going to look different to my power rankings. And that's the case every year. There are always going to be prospects where you might hear they'll go in such and such range but from your viewings of the talents you may have an entirely different view on where they should get picked.

Great insight... do you balance that with some stats ..to give you some data? I was thinking tonight watching Geelong get flogged again at contested ball that I like to know the best 10 contested ball mids for the draft coming... Im sure Roberston would be handy in it but I suspect in your role it would be handy to have some real data to back up impressions..

Stats are an essential part of what I look at absolutely. You look at stats in the context of the games and the players. Once you've seen players enough times you really know intuitively what however many of whatever stat means in the context of their game when you consider how and where they get their touches and how damaging or otherwise they are.

No unfortunately not -I just copied it from https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/national-championships/ and put it in an XL spreadsheet.

View attachment 704663

It's particularly fun selecting CP and CLR. It's one of those where you know Tom Green will be comfortably leading both totals, you just click them to see by how much.

 

[Dede]

I'm stunned you have brynes ahead of Finn in the rankings ?

Brynes will go at pick 30 onwards I got told by a few scouts..

Worrall hurt himself yesterday too so a few Sandy boys will go late in the draft

 

[Knightmare]

I'm stunned you have brynes ahead of Finn in the rankings ?

Brynes will go at pick 30 onwards I got told by a few scouts..

Worrall hurt himself yesterday too so a few Sandy boys will go late in the draft

Byrnes didn't get the U18 Champs exposure being hurt early on and not returning in top shape/form hurt his stocks. I liked what I saw pre champs from Byrnes so he will remain inside my top 20 for July.

Maginness I'm not a massive fan of just yet. Had that one strong U18 Champs game, but otherwise I find his influence on games low and I'm yet to find a position where I feel confident in him for AFL level play. He'll need a strong finals series to win me over.

You are likely right as to who will feature first, but on what I've seen to date, I'm taking Byrnes first of the two.

Sandy will have another unbelievable number of prospects taken this year. Loaded team once again this year.

 

[BigEast]

Byrnes didn't get the U18 Champs exposure being hurt early on and not returning in top shape/form hurt his stocks. I liked what I saw pre champs from Byrnes so he will remain inside my top 20 for July.

Maginness I'm not a massive fan of just yet. Had that one strong U18 Champs game, but otherwise I find his influence on games low and I'm yet to find a position where I feel confident in him for AFL level play. He'll need a strong finals series to win me over.

You are likely right as to who will feature first, but on what I've seen to date, I'm taking Byrnes first of the two.

Sandy will have another unbelievable number of prospects taken this year. Loaded team once again this year.

Hi KM,
Purely based on ladder position, Eastern Ranges, despite sitting clear on top, are noticeably invisible in most draft rankings up to around 40 (even later). Are they over-achieving or are their results due to other teams being heavily compromised through champs and school footy? Or are they a very even side without elite (draftable) standouts; champion team vs team of champions scenario?

 

[Knightmare]

Hi KM,
Purely based on ladder position, Eastern Ranges, despite sitting clear on top, are noticeably invisible in most draft rankings up to around 40 (even later). Are they over-achieving or are their results due to other teams being heavily compromised through champs and school footy? Or are they a very even side without elite (draftable) standouts; champion team vs team of champions scenario?

A team with enough good players who can be state leaguers without those guys who project at AFL footballers. Fewer school footballers have helped and only Mellis for a game or two playing for Vic Metro. Stapleton, Mellis (both sub 180cm mids) can play but height works against them from an AFL perspective. Rossiter and Pretty are two others who can play but aren't getting spoken about as AFL prospects. The other one who was there early season who helped was Coby Hirst but he got picked in the mid-season draft.

Overall it's a case of the combination of those circumstances have proven favourable to early season performance but from here it's going to be an uphill battle from this point on. I'd be shocked if Oakleigh or Sandringham didn't annihilate Eastern come finals time if they were to meet (with the APS kids and U18 Champs kids back). Tasmania I feel are slightly stronger with their prospects back from the Allies. Gippsland and Dandenong are two other sides I slightly favour to Eastern this year.

The key with the ladder at this point in the season is always to ignore it. It's more useful to understand the quality of the players on their list and those who have missed games to get a better feel for which teams are the strongest sides. And this year it's all about Sandringham and Oakleigh in terms of which sides are those premiership contenders in the NAB League.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Any chance you could furnish us with your Top 30 post Champs rankings, for the 2019 Draft Knightmare?

I'm still not convinced by any of the smaller Vic Country on-ballers, as Top 10 prospects.