Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[0utsider]

IF dogs didn’t get Treloar last year, I would do that trade too. WC should do it too.

Additional:
The Swans shouldn’t do it, their current recruiter for u18 is too good, any pick he hits.

Not sure you can give the Swans recruiters too much credit. Last years draft was two academy players and an absolute no brainer in McDonald. Outside of that it's pretty hit and miss if you go back through their non-academy picks over the last 4-5 years (although admittedly the juries still out on some of the more recent ones).

 

[maverick001]

You do realise that Naughton is only 8 months older than the King brothers, yes? In terms of you positioning for long term?

Regarding versatility, I don’t think I’ve ever seen either King ruck beyond inside 50 contests.

On the other hand it’s fairly well considered that Naughton would be right in the mix as an AA level defender if he stayed in defence.

To me I'd have both Naughton and Allen in that first team ahead of others (not including McDonald and JUH due to limited exposure, although McDonald couldn't have done much more than he has done in first 5 rds).

I've watched Max King quite closely, and while I agree he will be a good player, he is yet to display the contested marking that either Naughton or Allen have. Drops a lot of marks he gets his hands to. Maybe this is confidence and it will come, maybe his body has further to go to get to maturity because of his extra height. Watching his U18 highlights his combination of pace/leap/hands were incredibly impressive, but hasn't translated to AFL yet. Not saying it won't, but I think it's more uncertain than with Naughton or Allen. Ben King has shown more than Max I think, Ben seems to have sorted his lead up game and is clunking more marks. Impressive given he is in the inferior team.

I'd have Naughton just ahead, with Allen and B.King very close second, followed by Max. Hard to put JUH ahead of any of them given he hasn't played a game. McDonald certaintly projects very well.

 

[LittleG]

Not sure you can give the Swans recruiters too much credit. Last years draft was two academy players and an absolute no brainer in McDonald. Outside of that it's pretty hit and miss if you go back through their non-academy picks over the last 4-5 years (although admittedly the juries still out on some of the more recent ones).

The Swans head recruiter (Simon Dalrymple, aka The Little Birdy) wasn’t at the Swans then.
The Little Birdy is the architect of the Bulldogs drafting a side to the 2016 premiership and drafted most of the players in their current side. Apart from Martin, Treloar, Crozier, Bruce & Duryea; the remainder of the senior side* he drafted. Very few misses in the last 7 years.
I was surprised that the Swans were the only team to chase him. There would be very few if any recruiters who have drafted better than him. I would say none but I am biased....



*I am excluding McNeil & Scott who shouldn’t be in the senior side right now. They are there as others have been made to work harder in the seconds to get their spots back.

 

[Wild Bill]

To me I'd have both Naughton and Allen in that first team ahead of others (not including McDonald and JUH due to limited exposure, although McDonald couldn't have done much more than he has done in first 5 rds).

I've watched Max King quite closely, and while I agree he will be a good player, he is yet to display the contested marking that either Naughton or Allen have. Drops a lot of marks he gets his hands to. Maybe this is confidence and it will come, maybe his body has further to go to get to maturity because of his extra height. Watching his U18 highlights his combination of pace/leap/hands were incredibly impressive, but hasn't translated to AFL yet. Not saying it won't, but I think it's more uncertain than with Naughton or Allen. Ben King has shown more than Max I think, Ben seems to have sorted his lead up game and is clunking more marks. Impressive given he is in the inferior team.

I'd have Naughton just ahead, with Allen and B.King very close second, followed by Max. Hard to put JUH ahead of any of them given he hasn't played a game. McDonald certaintly projects very well.

The difference between getting the best defender over the third best separates Kings & Naughton and Allen.

Eg - May or Tomlinson when they play the Dees.

 

[GWS Goose]

The difference between getting the best defender over the third best separates Kings & Naughton and Allen.

Eg - May or Tomlinson when they play the Dees.

Good point.

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks for the reply.

only other thing I’d say is regarding your comment on his year on year improvement or lack there of.
In 2018 (his first year) he finished 4th our B&F
In 2019 he had his break out year when he moved forward
In 2020 no doubt he dropped off. I think it’s worth noting though he missed a third of the season with injury and had a really limited pre season due to his knee injury in the 2019 final.

This year he has been fantastic.

Sorry not trying to pick through everything, but I obviously follow him closely and other than an injury interrupted 2020 his progression has been great.

He still needs to work on his goal kicking but I’d say that’s his only flaw.

Ultimately all the guys you have mentioned are very exciting and as fans we have a great 10 years or so in front of us to enjoy watching them.

It's going to be fun to see how it works out at the end of the day.

The key point in any discussions about these young key forwards is the sheer number of good ones.

You're not wrong on anything you're saying on Naughton, and Naughton's 2020 season is still playing in my mind somewhat, but if he continues his play, that will become a distant memory.

To me I'd have both Naughton and Allen in that first team ahead of others (not including McDonald and JUH due to limited exposure, although McDonald couldn't have done much more than he has done in first 5 rds).

I've watched Max King quite closely, and while I agree he will be a good player, he is yet to display the contested marking that either Naughton or Allen have. Drops a lot of marks he gets his hands to. Maybe this is confidence and it will come, maybe his body has further to go to get to maturity because of his extra height. Watching his U18 highlights his combination of pace/leap/hands were incredibly impressive, but hasn't translated to AFL yet. Not saying it won't, but I think it's more uncertain than with Naughton or Allen. Ben King has shown more than Max I think, Ben seems to have sorted his lead up game and is clunking more marks. Impressive given he is in the inferior team.

I'd have Naughton just ahead, with Allen and B.King very close second, followed by Max. Hard to put JUH ahead of any of them given he hasn't played a game. McDonald certaintly projects very well.

Doing that is a nod to those proven performers, and I don't blame you in the slightest for doing so. When you can taken someone who is proven, generally that's the way to go. The only reason I'm not is the extent to my conviction with those younger guys. As others are, I'm fully aware of exactly how good Naughton and Allen are, I just really see something special in these younger guys. As I said coming into last year's draft, McDonald and JUH could become the two best key forwards since Buddy. The King's I don't have far off in that conversation either and also see substantial upside in still.

 

[0utsider]

The Swans head recruiter (Simon Dalrymple, aka The Little Birdy) wasn’t at the Swans then.
The Little Birdy is the architect of the Bulldogs drafting a side to the 2016 premiership and drafted most of the players in their current side. Apart from Martin, Treloar, Crozier, Bruce & Duryea; the remainder of the senior side* he drafted. Very few misses in the last 7 years.
I was surprised that the Swans were the only team to chase him. There would be very few if any recruiters who have drafted better than him. I would say none but I am biased....



*I am excluding McNeil & Scott who shouldn’t be in the senior side right now. They are there as others have been made to work harder in the seconds to get their spots back.

Even so, their draft and trading record since Dalrymple stepped in isn't all that impressive. With regards to trade-ins, Hickey looks like a good trade early days but I can’t find any others. On the draft front Warner, Rowbottom and McInerny are probably the only real wins that he can be given any credit for over the past 3 years. A good record considering it's early days but still nothing mind blowing.

And as for his Bulldogs ties, give me the Ice Man any day.

 

[Chioli]

You're not wrong with Naughton. The relative differences are Naughton was the more advanced at the younger age, but probably hasn't shown the year on year improvement of the King's which may mean the King's have the greater long term upside.

Naughton only this year has shown that improvement after a few years of less consistency than I'd have liked given how early he started playing good footy.

Versatility and capabilities up the ground I completely agree with you on Naughton matching up favourably and I happen to agree with all your comments on Naughton.

One component of interest with the King's and mostly Ben is I'd have him relieving through the ruck so that a second dedicated ruckman wouldn't be required.

Ultimately I'm a fan of all of them.

I could easily place Naughton in for Ben King, as Ben probably isn't needed with Jamarra and Max both in there already. As I said in my video, Naughton was the most unlucky and was that next guy I'd be picking and would like to ideally include if I had room for another tall. Perhaps that means Max is that guy who relieves through the ruck, and that wouldn't hurt the front half balance at all.

In any case, with the versatility of so many of the talls, I like all the options there, and the Naughton's and Allen's outside that 22, it means the sheer number of good options available make picking who out of those is best for the long run a challenge.

Hey Knightmare,

Do you have a list for mid season draft of a top 10 or 20 that are eligible that you think are worth watching?

 

[Knightmare]

Hey Knightmare,

Do you have a list for mid season draft of a top 10 or 20 that are eligible that you think are worth watching?

I'll put something together. Maybe for ESPN, maybe for my YouTube. I'll have a think about how I can present it best, but I'll definitely put something strong together to scratch that itch as it's something that has me interested at the moment also. I might even consider something slightly different on both platforms. In each of my weekly draft wraps for ESPN in the meantime I'm covering off on some of those I'm thinking about for the mid-season draft, which will probably make up a good portion of whatever kind of list I come up with.

 

[Chioli]

I'll put something together. Maybe for ESPN, maybe for my YouTube. I'll have a think about how I can present it best, but I'll definitely put something strong together to scratch that itch as it's something that has me interested at the moment also. I might even consider something slightly different on both platforms. In each of my weekly draft wraps for ESPN in the meantime I'm covering off on some of those I'm thinking about for the mid-season draft, which will probably make up a good portion of whatever kind of list I come up with.

Brilliant. Thanks. Love to know who the Hawks may get now instead of at the end of the year now that Patton has opened up a list spot

 

[bird_man]

Knightmare, thoughts on a couple of Saints next gen, in particular Peris and Beilby?

Where in the draft would you expect them to go?

 

[Knightmare]

Brilliant. Thanks. Love to know who the Hawks may get now instead of at the end of the year now that Patton has opened up a list spot

There are some key forward options available. Whether it's someone younger in Jackson Callow. Edwards from Sandringham has his fans as a combo KPF/ruck also. Mature age in Tyler Keitel. Jack Hayes in the SANFL was incredible v Adelaide and could be another mature age alternative.

 

[Knightmare]

Nightmare, thoughts on a couple of Saints next gen, in particular Peris and Beilby?

Where in the draft would you expect them to go?

Beilby I mentioned in my weekly wrap last week. Like him and view him as very draftable. Peris has yet to stand out to me yet in the games I've seen (very quiet v Northern), but that doesn't mean he won't as we progress through the season.

 

[The Inbetweener]

The Swans head recruiter (Simon Dalrymple, aka The Little Birdy) wasn’t at the Swans then.
The Little Birdy is the architect of the Bulldogs drafting a side to the 2016 premiership and drafted most of the players in their current side. Apart from Martin, Treloar, Crozier, Bruce & Duryea; the remainder of the senior side* he drafted. Very few misses in the last 7 years.
I was surprised that the Swans were the only team to chase him. There would be very few if any recruiters who have drafted better than him. I would say none but I am biased....



*I am excluding McNeil & Scott who shouldn’t be in the senior side right now. They are there as others have been made to work harder in the seconds to get their spots back.

From memory I believe the Swans sold Dalrymple that he’d eventually take over from Beatson.

I agree though, someone like Hawthorn should be on the phone to Dalrymple ASAP. As the pure recruiter in the draft, he’a second to none.

 

[Marcel Proust]

Didn't say the Tigers weren't already a great side. Does help to keep it going with a pick up like that and still keeping 2x 1st rounders that he would of cost in an open market. Anyone would have done the same but it does help with keeping talent coming through

RCD dow haven't played much so it didn't have much effect

 

[Wild Bill]

Jacob Edwards KM? Sen reporting he is the fav for us to take at 1 in the mid season draft. Sounds perfect for our long term ruck/key forward.

 

[Knightmare]

Jacob Edwards KM? Sen reporting he is the fav for us to take at 1 in the mid season draft. Sounds perfect for our long term ruck/key forward.

I mentioned Edwards a few posts ago as one of the possible mid-season draft prospects as a KPF/ruck. He has had to his credit a consistent start to the season. I've just seen the one Sandringham game so far and he was good rather than great, though that was the worse of his three games, so as a result I won't be talking him up quite to the extent some others may at this point. I'd like to see another strong game from him with my own eyes before I talk him up as the first picked, but the signs are certainly there to suggest he'll get picked and picked early if his play continues.

 

[Knightmare]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Josh Gibcus: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...next-nick-haynes-josh-gibcus-stars-nab-league

 

[bird_man]

AFL Draft wrap with a focus on Josh Gibcus: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...next-nick-haynes-josh-gibcus-stars-nab-league

Where would you rate Raak right now?

 

[Knightmare]

Where would you rate Raak right now?

If he can produce another game or two like that, he's in the mid-season draft mix and one I'd have on my shortlist if after someone of his type. Good height, intercepting, generating drive with his run. He looks like a developable piece and could become a component to a back half which is enough. His stocks are rising.

 

[nelk boys]

How do you rate Neil Erasmus right now?

 

[Knightmare]

How do you rate Neil Erasmus right now?

For my upcoming May Power Rankings I'll be expanding out to a top-15 and I'm at this stage likely to slot Erasmus into my 8-15 range. He has earned it with his strong start to the season. With a late year birthday and being so far improved from where he was at in that little taste he got last year, his appeal is growing in a hurry.

 

[Wild Bill]

I mentioned Edwards a few posts ago as one of the possible mid-season draft prospects as a KPF/ruck. He has had to his credit a consistent start to the season. I've just seen the one Sandringham game so far and he was good rather than great, though that was the worse of his three games, so as a result I won't be talking him up quite to the extent some others may at this point. I'd like to see another strong game from him with my own eyes before I talk him up as the first picked, but the signs are certainly there to suggest he'll get picked and picked early if his play continues.

Thanks. We have to take the best Key forward or back in this mid year draft. Especially with the likelihood of us taking Horne at years end.

 

[Chioli]

Thanks. We have to take the best Key forward or back in this mid year draft. Especially with the likelihood of us taking Horne at years end.

North are no certainty to be last after 11 games. Hawks are 1 injury away (Mcevoy) from being easy beats

 

[Knightmare]

Thanks. We have to take the best Key forward or back in this mid year draft. Especially with the likelihood of us taking Horne at years end.

I'd still be tempted by Jackson Callow who I liked last year, and would feel comfortable slotting in at either end, but with rate of improvement, Edwards is definitely one to keep watching also if looking for the combo ruck/KPF. If you want to go tall with pick 1, and it's a long term time horizon I'm thinking about, they're the two I'd be talking to my team about. And you could reasonably go one way or the other based on positional need. People slept on Callow during last year's draft and I get the sense despite his strong SANFL League debut that people again are underrating him, albeit he sounds like he's very much in the mix and possibly as high as Hawthorn's pick.