Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

Kicked another 5 this week. I'm curious how much stock people put into school footy form? He's obviously talented, and seems fairly athletic which definitely would help his chances given he is supposedly 200+cm

I'll wait until he produces in NAB League before bumping him up my rankings. He's had one very good NAB League game (v Western), with his game before that more-so okay than good. I just haven't seen the 200cm+ measurements, being listed at 197cm. If he's 203cm as some are reporting, he could be a first round pick, but I haven't received that confirmation from a further independent source.

At this stage my view until I see confirmation on that updated height is I'd be prepared to spend a second round pick on him.

He has attributes. Strong mark. Moves well. Reads the ball well. Very skinny though and will take time to develop, but glimpses are positive.

Great insight mate. Appreciate that long-term holistic view of the pies’ list management etc.

Looking at this off-season in particular, what moves would you look to make, as in players traded out and possible targets coming in?

On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Last year I was big on Collingwood adding one of Aliir Aliir/Tom McDonald. Aliir seemed committed early days to join Port Adelaide, which would have meant McDonald who no one expressed interest in was my guy as basically a salary dump Melbourne weren't asking much for.

Collingwood again remain in the market for a tall and won't be able to address it early draft given Daicos and possibly Dib will join the club. Given that, trading is the most likely solution. Jake Riccardi is the one I'm tracking closely. Has shown strong year on year improvement progressing from in his draft year a no one, to showing signs as an overager and having some really good moments, to winning the VFL Rising Star the next year and then showing signs at AFL level for GWS in year one. Having shown that year on year improvement at a rapid pace, with rate of improvement a key indicator with key position players, he's someone if he can't establish himself as a best-22 piece this year I'd go after. He's outside best-22 given how good Hogan is looking, and with Himmelberg and Finlayson established and holding their spots, while for Collingwood at either end I could make a case he would be best-22. Fits the age demographics of where the list is at. Likely to be inexpensive and on a small contract. It's a buy at a low given he's outside best-22. The more of those boxes the player fits the better and Riccardi is that tick for me across the board. GWS would be able to trade for either future picks or a player. John Noble could be an example player who could be involved in a trade for Riccardi and likely would appeal to the Giants given how thin their defence is on quality and rebounders, or perhaps a Jamie Elliott if the Giants want to upgrade their front half.
I don't necessarily feel the urgency many others will regarding adding great key position players now as with presumably a few years down, there will be opportunities over coming seasons to add quality key position players, but if the right key position opportunity is there, at the right price, I wouldn't say no.

Patrick Lipinski who I saw as a possible breakout player coming into this season is one I'm tracking with interest and feel like could be available and would interest me if cheap. Has been used as a sub and dropped. Has been a year on year improver and underutilised to date, having evolved from a medium marking forward into a damaging player who can genuine go through the midfield and impact games. Dogs have such a loaded midfield that he doesn't get to play through there. Seeing what he can do inside/outside/forward. Being a three zone capable player, he's an ideal component to a thin midfield rotation as a midfielder who I'd use inside and have rotate forward, both being spots Collingwood need to upgrade. The Dogs will be looking to reduce their salary cap hit, so I'd be likely looking at a pick/future pick for player trade if the price is right.

They're two I'd start with, though ultimately I'd be making enquiries about 20+ players who can be clear-cut best-22 for Collingwood and of greater use to Collingwood than their existing team to get a feel for how available they are and if they can be had at a suitable price point.

To make room for new additions, it's going to take a solid list cull. Sier, Mayne, Madgen, J.Thomas and Greenwood are the 'name' out of contract players I'd be letting go. Some contracted players would need to go. Will Hoskin-Elliott top of mind is another I'd make available during the trade period.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Will Hoskin-Elliott top of mind is another I'd make available during the trade period.

He's not an AFL quality player now.

As a No. 4 pick, he's failed.

Add him to the scrapheap.

 

[Knightmare]

He's not an AFL quality player now.

As a No. 4 pick, he's failed.

Add him to the scrapheap.

It's more-so he's contracted for another year that delisting him just means you're paying him for nothing which clubs normally don't opt to do.

He has been used out of position and if a club use him as a medium marking forward close to goal, he's reasonable (42 goals in 2018 and 30 goals through his first 13 games). If used higher up the field, he's entirely useless as he has no contested ball winning capabilities and can't find enough of the footy.

 

[THE_GUN]

In a trade WHE would have absolutely no value , At a guess late 3rd maybe even 4th rounder
he will be 28 years old and has just floated along.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

It's more-so he's contracted for another year that delisting him just means you're paying him for nothing which clubs normally don't opt to do.

He has been used out of position and if a club use him as a medium marking forward close to goal, he's reasonable (42 goals in 2018 and 30 goals through his first 13 games). If used higher up the field, he's entirely useless as he has no contested ball winning capabilities and can't find enough of the footy.

Would you willingly pay Hoskin-Elliott out and say that this is the parting gift for a largely unmemorable career?

 

[briztoon]

Pies should do what Brisbane do.

Delist with a commitment to redraft in the rookie draft.

This opens up a senior list spot for the National Draft or trade period.

WHE would still earn what ever his contract is, but the Pies save money off the tpp, as the value of a standard rookie contract sits outside the tpp.

For example, if a rookie contract is worth $70k and WHE is on a $300k contract, then only $230k counts towards the tpp.

If by some miracle, another team is willing to sign WHE, you’ve gotten of his contract.

 

[danielG]

Pies should do what Brisbane do.

Delist with a commitment to redraft in the rookie draft.

This opens up a senior list spot for the National Draft or trade period.

WHE would still earn what ever his contract is, but the Pies save money off the tpp, as the value of a standard rookie contract sits outside the tpp.

For example, if a rookie contract is worth $70k and WHE is on a $300k contract, then only $230k counts towards the tpp.

If by some miracle, another team is willing to sign WHE, you’ve gotten of his contract.

Collingwood are in a bit of a predicament right now.. Not sure what their best approach is.. I am not sure their club do either, though I do think it’s clear, they need to push the rebuild button. Issue is they’ve just traded what could end up being picks 2 and 20 for a bag of chips. With the exception of of Daicos they don’t be able to use this draft to launch into a rebuild and their assets are declining in value. It’s been shambolic their last couple of years and it looks like the end has yet to be reached. Pity for mine as a good Magpies makes for a better AFL.

 

[briztoon]

Collingwood are in a bit of a predicament right now.. Not sure what their best approach is.. I am not sure their club do either, though I do think it’s clear, they need to push the rebuild button. Issue is they’ve just traded what could end up being picks 2 and 20 for a bag of chips. With the exception of of Daicos they don’t be able to use this draft to launch into a rebuild and their assets are declining in value. It’s been shambolic their last couple of years and it looks like the end has yet to be reached. Pity for mine as a good Magpies makes for a better AFL.

I get what you’re saying about the pick trades, but they’re also going to get an NGA kid called Youssef Dib who can play.

I’ll let Collingwood worry about what they’re going to do, but I’m happy for Collingwood to spend a few years down the bottom.

 

[THE_GUN]

Collingwood are in a bit of a predicament right now.. Not sure what their best approach is.. I am not sure their club do either, though I do think it’s clear, they need to push the rebuild button. Issue is they’ve just traded what could end up being picks 2 and 20 for a bag of chips. With the exception of of Daicos they don’t be able to use this draft to launch into a rebuild and their assets are declining in value.

It actually goes beyond this , They not only have given their picks away for chips in the pursuit of not losing value with Daicos coming they are now extremely short of points to cover the cost of daicos bid and will most likely either trade out other assets like players of value or 2022 picks

 

[briztoon]

It actually goes beyond this , They not only have given their picks away for chips in the pursuit of not losing value with Daicos coming they are now extremely short of points to cover the cost of daicos bid and will most likely either trade out other assets like players of value or 2022 picks

There’s nothing stopping Collingwood from live trading their 2022 first round pick in to this years draft if they look like carrying over a significant debt.

Some club might be willing to offer a late 2021 first round pick and a future first round pick to Collingwood, if they believe they’re trading for a future top 5 pick.

 

[THE_GUN]

There’s nothing stopping Collingwood from live trading their 2022 first round pick in to this years draft if they look like carrying over a significant debt.

Some club might be willing to offer a late 2021 first round pick and a future first round pick to Collingwood, if they believe they’re trading for a future top 5 pick.

Agreed but my point was that they are going to have to use future assets to cover the cost of Daicos which defeats the purpose of why they traded out the 2021 1st rounder for junk picks last year

 

[TryAnHit]

There’s nothing stopping Collingwood from live trading their 2022 first round pick in to this years draft if they look like carrying over a significant debt.

Some club might be willing to offer a late 2021 first round pick and a future first round pick to Collingwood, if they believe they’re trading for a future top 5 pick.

Even worse if they finish 2nd last and were able to get pick 2 + Daicos and traded away that possibility last year

 

[Rusty Beam]

There’s nothing stopping Collingwood from live trading their 2022 first round pick in to this years draft if they look like carrying over a significant debt.

Some club might be willing to offer a late 2021 first round pick and a future first round pick to Collingwood, if they believe they’re trading for a future top 5 pick.

Obviously in hindsight it’s looking like a terrible decision to trade. Not that we would have ever have been able to use pick 2 or whatever it would have been.

But we would have been able to get considerably move for it that what we got last year.

Reckon people are being overly dramatic about the Daicos/Dib points though.

There are plenty of machinations to get the points.

Particularly trading in our future 2nd/3rd rounder or trading the picks we currently have this year for a bundle of later picks worth more points.

 

[eDPS]

If he's 203cm as some are reporting, he could be a first round pick, but I haven't received that confirmation from a further independent source.

Take it from the horses mouth, I was literally listening to the person measuring him at the pre-season testing have him at 203. Honestly if it was rounded out he would even be 204cm

 

[Knightmare]

In a trade WHE would have absolutely no value , At a guess late 3rd maybe even 4th rounder
he will be 28 years old and has just floated along.

Collingwood may rate WHE more highly, but I'd be comfortable trading him for a 3rd/4th round pick. He wouldn't be a part of my long term plans given both age and below what I'd term as best-22 standard performance.

Pies should do what Brisbane do.

Delist with a commitment to redraft in the rookie draft.

This opens up a senior list spot for the National Draft or trade period.

WHE would still earn what ever his contract is, but the Pies save money off the tpp, as the value of a standard rookie contract sits outside the tpp.

For example, if a rookie contract is worth $70k and WHE is on a $300k contract, then only $230k counts towards the tpp.

If by some miracle, another team is willing to sign WHE, you’ve gotten of his contract.

This is the likely outcome with those still contracted players. It's just poor list management having players signed to deals where they're still contracted when you're wanting to get rid of them. Clubs across the board do this all the time, giving players, coaches too many years and being forced to pay them out.

Even aside from the saving towards the tpp, the other factor is by having the extra pick available, it means another pick can be used towards points to match bids for F/S and NGA picks which will be Collingwood's priority, so a very liberal approach towards delisting contracted players is the smart play if they're not seen as long term pieces.

Take it from the horses mouth, I was literally listening to the person measuring him at the pre-season testing have him at 203. Honestly if it was rounded out he would even be 204cm

A second credible source to confirm. Many thanks.

Incredible hearing he's almost 204cm!

203cm puts Darcy firmly into first round calculations.

 

[Harlequin Dream]

Who do you like for the midseason draft?

Who would be your top pick from the NAB league 19-year-olds?

Who is your top pick from the more conventional mature age picks?

 

[LittleG]

Collingwood may rate WHE more highly, but I'd be comfortable trading him for a 3rd/4th round pick. He wouldn't be a part of my long term plans given both age and below what I'd term as best-22 standard performance.



This is the likely outcome with those still contracted players. It's just poor list management having players signed to deals where they're still contracted when you're wanting to get rid of them. Clubs across the board do this all the time, giving players, coaches too many years and being forced to pay them out.

Even aside from the saving towards the tpp, the other factor is by having the extra pick available, it means another pick can be used towards points to match bids for F/S and NGA picks which will be Collingwood's priority, so a very liberal approach towards delisting contracted players is the smart play if they're not seen as long term pieces.



A second credible source to confirm. Many thanks.

Incredible hearing he's almost 204cm!

203cm puts Darcy firmly into first round calculations.

I was a fan of WHE when he was at GWS. Since the move, he hasn’t improved and even though I still like him, I wouldn’t give up a list spot for him or a draft pick.

IF I was the Pies, I would try and have an end to the current list management problems. By end, I mean not having issues of lack of draft picks or cap space effecting future years. You can’t keep paying for the sins of the past and expect to rebuild your list.
Love the idea of actually strongly focusing on the under utilised players on others lists. Offering players opportunity rather than extra money is a better list strategy than overpaying.

To do clear the decks at the Pies and stop paying for the sins of the past, I would be looking at trading Moore &/or JDG. Either would get at least 1 if not 2 first round picks plus potentially players.

 

[borderbarry]

Can we talk a bit about next montths draft, which will be on us before we know it. Who would be the first ten taken do you think?

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you like for the midseason draft?

Who would be your top pick from the NAB league 19-year-olds?

Who is your top pick from the more conventional mature age picks?

I have a long list of players I like for the midseason draft. I'll just between now and then be sorting out my thoughts and deciding who I like more than the next guy.

For a far from exhaustive list some of those I'm looking at and have interest in (unordered): Jackson Callow, Jack Buller Jacob Edwards, Ned Moyle, Liam Podhajski, Max Heath, Cody Raak, Jack Avery, Mitch Podhajski, Tyrone Thorne, Bailey Lambert, Ewan MacPherson and Tom Lewis.

Picking my favourite 19 year old almost comes down to position. I don't see a great deal of separation and it would come down to positional need, and I wouldn't mind seeing more games. If I want a ruck/fwd, Jacob Edwards. If I want a key position player Jackson Callow, though Jack Buller if he keeps improving could overtake him. Jack Avery is the choice of the midfielders. Raak of the general defenders. Callow and Edwards are my two personal favourites if you pressed me on my pick regardless of need.

Best conventional mature ager. Mitch Podhajski and Tyrone Thorne would be high up that list, and they're both still young. Sam Fisher I'm a fan of. Bailey Lambert is winning me over early stages in the VFL season. I like a lot of the older mature agers, but don't see many of them getting picked with Corey Gault the main one.

I was a fan of WHE when he was at GWS. Since the move, he hasn’t improved and even though I still like him, I wouldn’t give up a list spot for him or a draft pick.

IF I was the Pies, I would try and have an end to the current list management problems. By end, I mean not having issues of lack of draft picks or cap space effecting future years. You can’t keep paying for the sins of the past and expect to rebuild your list.
Love the idea of actually strongly focusing on the under utilised players on others lists. Offering players opportunity rather than extra money is a better list strategy than overpaying.

To do clear the decks at the Pies and stop paying for the sins of the past, I would be looking at trading Moore &/or JDG. Either would get at least 1 if not 2 first round picks plus potentially players.

I wasn't a fan of WHE when he was with GWS. The only time in his career I liked his play was the first half of 2018 where he played as an athletic medium marking forward. He intrigued a lot of people because of his elite speed and endurance combination, but his issue has always been he can't find or win enough of the footy to be relevant up the field. And as a forward he's only a medium volume goal scorer who is more a marking type than a ground level or pressure specialist - not providing anything different to Collingwood's other general forwards.

Can we talk a bit about next montths draft, which will be on us before we know it. Who would be the first ten taken do you think?

Gold Coast I suspect take Corey Gault.

Jacob Edwards probably goes #1 - that is if he decides to even nominate - he may wait until seasons end as that way he would be taken in the national draft instead.

Jack Buller and Bailey Lambert I can see going. Cody Raak, Jack Avery, Mitch Podhajski and Tyrone Thorne all make sense as selections. There are a number of rucks who all I can see being considered in Moyle, Heath, and L.Podhajski.

 

[BRWB]

It may have been covered or it may be too early to say

How deep is this yrs draft?

 

[Knightmare]

It may have been covered or it may be too early to say

How deep is this yrs draft?

I'll call it below average - average. If 30 deep is around average, this draft may be 25-30 deep for a quick approximation.

 

[Knightmare]

May AFL Draft Power Rankings: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...nkings-jason-horne-nick-daicos-duke-no-1-spot

 

[Knightmare]

ESPN AFL Podcast. First involvement for season 2021 including an approx 15min draft segment: https://linktr.ee/ESPNFootyPod

 

[Chioli]

May AFL Draft Power Rankings: https://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_...nkings-jason-horne-nick-daicos-duke-no-1-spot

Where would you rate Sonsie or Roberts if placed against say a Campbell or Holland's from 2020?

 

[Knightmare]

Where would you rate Sonsie or Roberts if placed against say a Campbell or Holland's from 2020?

Favourably to Campbell. Roughly in the same conversation with Hollands.

Hollands I had at 4 last year, Campbell at 11.

Sonsie and Roberts if in last year's draft I'd probably have had just behind Hollands and Thilthorpe (4/5 on my board last year), though by just about nothing.
That partly reflects on how much I liked the top-5 last year, though also at the same time how this year's top end isn't incredible.