Draft Expert Knightmare's 2021 Draft Almanac

[kaskader]

Just listen to the video?

If Vandermeer can boost himself to 20d per game, I agree with you that's when he'll become valuable. Or if he's playing close to goal, then his impact would be measured more-so on goals/tackles/pressure/score assists more-so.

I think one reason Dogs fans tend to rate Vandermeer is that our side can be a bit soft and not the quickest. He defies both of those things, he’s a tough player with a bit of a-hole to him, and has genuine wheels. I think he’s best placed as a HFF on our side, our forward line definitely needs his pace and goal sense.

He's David Grenvold

 

[Davo-27]

Hi km, be interested to hear your thoughts on Latham Vandermeer. Probably a bit unknown outside the Bulldogs but is highly rated internally and would be above Lipinski in match selection pecking order.
A really high impact our possession player so stats don't really tell the story although champion data rated him the best Bulldogs player on the ground in Friday night.

he was a real standout as a half back for Vic Country a few years ago now, i have seen him kill it as a small forward for the Dogs, very under rated, i like what i see from him as a forward in the few games ive seen the Dogs play.

 

[Macca19]

Has the downloadable NAB League guide come out yet? Its usually out by now

 

[Knightmare]

Supercoach team update and trade ideas ahead of round 3 2021:

 

[blaisee]

Balta for shock factor at stoppages could really catch some teams off-guard and do some damage. Since before he's been drafted I've been such a fan of his talent, and as he keeps improving, that only grows more and more.

Bolton I did include on my list, and still inside my top-50, but no doubt later than most Tigers fans will have him. Age plays a part. Slow career starter. Would like to see him add the quantity to the quality. If he ever does. Watch out! He's excellent already and that kind of addition to his game will earn him All-Australian opportunities possibly.



Cerra is so easy to fit into any team. Need a midfielder? He can slot in, inside or outside. Need a defender? He can play there. Need a forward? He showed as a junior he can do that too. That's for me the benefit with guys with good skills. If guys don't have good skills, they can play. But when they do have good skills. You just get so much added versatility and optionality with them.

When you talk about production i find it strange you talk about disposals . Bolton is an elite player in the productions that matter for Richmond, things like I50, clearances, contested possessions , meters gained score involvements If you are comparing disposals when playing for a team like Richmond you are on the wrong path,

Shai has also got votes in 2 grand finals, has 2 flags and finished top 5 in the best and fairest in a premiership team, way too low, on projection on his career he would be top 10 IMHO in this cumulative draft.

 

[anotherletdown]

Sydney's young core is starting to come together isn't it?

Ruck and key defence are holes, I completely agree, though in defence I feel McCartin could be good enough to fill one of those posts, so it's about finding that complement to him in my mind. General forwards I'd also like to see boosted, along with the inside midfield group. Don't forget Logan McDonald. He can be the super-star from that group.

Through the draft I've still got a lot of the names to learn given the Victorian's weren't playing last year. Through the trade period though there should be some underutilised options, particularly through the ruck who could provide solid solutions. Tom Fullarton fascinates me and I feel can transition to play through the ruck. Otherwise the likes of a Lloyd Meek, or maybe a Matthew Flynn if he has a good year and Preuss comes back and takes over the #1 ruck duties. They're some top of mind to be aware of. Key defence I'd say find the right guys at the right time.

Yep, really liking the strength and speed of our rebuild. Lots of maturity and leadership potential too. Definately not forgetting McDonald, he and McCartin are our bookends for the next decade or so.

Still think one more year in the draft before hitting the trade table but i suppose availability might decide that for us

 

[Wild Bill]

When you talk about production i find it strange you talk about disposals . Bolton is an elite player in the productions that matter for Richmond, things like I50, clearances, contested possessions , meters gained score involvements If you are comparing disposals when playing for a team like Richmond you are on the wrong path,

Shai has also got votes in 2 grand finals, has 2 flags and finished top 5 in the best and fairest in a premiership team, way too low, on projection on his career he would be top 10 IMHO in this cumulative draft.

Votes in what? The norm smith?

 

[Knightmare]

When you talk about production i find it strange you talk about disposals . Bolton is an elite player in the productions that matter for Richmond, things like I50, clearances, contested possessions , meters gained score involvements If you are comparing disposals when playing for a team like Richmond you are on the wrong path,

Shai has also got votes in 2 grand finals, has 2 flags and finished top 5 in the best and fairest in a premiership team, way too low, on projection on his career he would be top 10 IMHO in this cumulative draft.

Keep in mind my video was a strict 1 hour time limit. With more time, the order would be different.

If Bolton ever crept up to become a 25d player, and was around that 5-6 tackle per game mark, and he's having the impact per possession that he has, he'd be one of the premier players in the competition. For me he's that slight bit off being elite as a result. The things he does when he has the footy. No argument. Elite. It also has to be noted with Bolton his career start was slow, and only in 2019 did he establish himself. If he keeps improving on his already very high standard of football, he'd be moving up my list in a hurry.

Yep, really liking the strength and speed of our rebuild. Lots of maturity and leadership potential too. Definately not forgetting McDonald, he and McCartin are our bookends for the next decade or so.

Still think one more year in the draft before hitting the trade table but i suppose availability might decide that for us

Trading is just about opportunity and opportunity cost. If you can get someone in the trade market who will improve your list more and provide better value than who you believe you can get through the draft, and it helps you in a position of need. Go do the trade.

Generally though, if I was to have a recommendation. I'd tend to prefer keeping first round picks where possible and have those other picks on the table if I can get someone underutilised/underrated, where I'm getting someone for below what I consider to be their value to my team.
eg. Last year the likes of Tom Phillips, Alex Witherden, Nick Hind (looking better than I expected). Giving up nothing meaningful for guys who can improve your best 22. They're the ideal deals to make, and won't hit the salary cap hard either. And with mid-late draft picks generally low % chance of making the grade, when you're getting these types of guys, it's playing the percentages.

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Last year the likes of Tom Phillips, Alex Witherden, Nick Hind (looking better than I expected). Giving up nothing meaningful for guys who can improve your best 22. They're the ideal deals to make, and won't hit the salary cap hard either.

Phillips and Witherden (and Treloar, Stephenson, Hogan and Wright from last year) came cheap pick-wise precisely because they had big contracts attached. If you have cap room spare, great, bargain - but it's soaking up resources nonetheless.

 

[blaisee]

Keep in mind my video was a strict 1 hour time limit. With more time, the order would be different.

If Bolton ever crept up to become a 25d player, and was around that 5-6 tackle per game mark, and he's having the impact per possession that he has, he'd be one of the premier players in the competition. For me he's that slight bit off being elite as a result. The things he does when he has the footy. No argument. Elite. It also has to be noted with Bolton his career start was slow, and only in 2019 did he establish himself. If he keeps improving on his already very high standard of football, he'd be moving up my list in a hurry.

Firstly I don't in any way want to demean the job you are doing, its really thorough and the insights for us unable to watch juniors adds real value, so thank you .

But, I still think you have a blindspot on Bolton, he will never get 25d on average playing for Richmond, its not how we play

Those stats and KPI are not really relevant, and this emphasis the AFL world has on disposals as proposed to what actually drives the success of richmond still has some way to go

I know its a small sample size but in 2021 so far

Shai Bolton is

	● Ranked 11th in Total Inside 50s	● Ranked 11th in Total Goal Assists
● Ranked 7th in Total Contested Possessions	● Ranked 10th in Total Clearances
● Ranked 7th in Total Centre Clearances	● Ranked 18th in Inside 50s Per Game
● Ranked 20th in Goal Assists Per Game	● Ranked 11th in Contested Possessions Per Game
● Ranked 12th in Clearances Per Game	● Ranked 9th in Centre Clearances Per Game

[TD valign="middle"]

2021 Statistical Rankings​

[/TD]

This is for the whole league , and that why in IMHO he is not only top 10, but probably top 5 , but once again, respect your views and thanks for letting us share in all your hard work

In 2020, over the whole league he was

6th in inside 50s per game

In 2019, he was 6th in GA per game

just looking at kicks and handballs doesn't do justice to Shai Boltons production, not even close, infact focussing on those stats probably skews the ratings draftees from poorer clubs as opposed to players from successful clubs , which is completely counter intuitive don't you think. Surely these should be a lift in rating for players that can actually contribute to teams that win finals and flags instead of spoons

Anyway enough said, I better leave this here before I am hounded out and banned from this thread as well lol.

 

[flipper83]

Oh oh Knightmare, you've made the mistake of not staying Richmond is the best/has the best something. Now your thread will be inundated with Richmond supporters trying to convince you that you are wrong because winning 3 premierships in 4 years isn't enough to appease long suffering Richmond fans. They have to win everything!

 

[blaisee]

Oh oh Knightmare, you've made the mistake of not staying Richmond is the best/has the best something. Now your thread will be inundated with Richmond supporters trying to convince you that you are wrong because winning 3 premierships in 4 years isn't enough to appease long suffering Richmond fans. They have to win everything!

As expected ....

The defence rests your honour

 

[Wild Bill]

Firstly I don't in any way want to demean the job you are doing, its really thorough and the insights for us unable to watch juniors adds real value, so thank you .

But, I still think you have a blindspot on Bolton, he will never get 25d on average playing for Richmond, its not how we play

Those stats and KPI are not really relevant, and this emphasis the AFL world has on disposals as proposed to what actually drives the success of richmond still has some way to go

I know its a small sample size but in 2021 so far

Shai Bolton is

	● Ranked 11th in Total Inside 50s	● Ranked 11th in Total Goal Assists
● Ranked 7th in Total Contested Possessions	● Ranked 10th in Total Clearances
● Ranked 7th in Total Centre Clearances	● Ranked 18th in Inside 50s Per Game
● Ranked 20th in Goal Assists Per Game	● Ranked 11th in Contested Possessions Per Game
● Ranked 12th in Clearances Per Game	● Ranked 9th in Centre Clearances Per Game

[TD valign="middle"]

2021 Statistical Rankings​

[/TD]

This is for the whole league , and that why in IMHO he is not only top 10, but probably top 5 , but once again, respect your views and thanks for letting us share in all your hard work

In 2020, over the whole league he was

6th in inside 50s per game

In 2019, he was 6th in GA per game

just looking at kicks and handballs doesn't do justice to Shai Boltons production, not even close, infact focussing on those stats probably skews the ratings draftees from poorer clubs as opposed to players from successful clubs , which is completely counter intuitive don't you think. Surely these should be a lift in rating for players that can actually contribute to teams that win finals and flags instead of spoons

Anyway enough said, I better leave this here before I am hounded out and banned from this thread as well lol.

lol - you rank Bolton higher than Sam Walsh and Bailey Smith?


Please watch other teams.

 

[Knightmare]

Phillips and Witherden (and Treloar, Stephenson, Hogan and Wright from last year) came cheap pick-wise precisely because they had big contracts attached. If you have cap room spare, great, bargain - but it's soaking up resources nonetheless.

Were Phillips and Witherden on big money? I wouldn't have thought so. The money is rarely made public, so unlike in say the NBA where I can judge salary size, it's hard to know.

Firstly I don't in any way want to demean the job you are doing, its really thorough and the insights for us unable to watch juniors adds real value, so thank you .

But, I still think you have a blindspot on Bolton, he will never get 25d on average playing for Richmond, its not how we play

Those stats and KPI are not really relevant, and this emphasis the AFL world has on disposals as proposed to what actually drives the success of richmond still has some way to go

I know its a small sample size but in 2021 so far

Shai Bolton is

	● Ranked 11th in Total Inside 50s	● Ranked 11th in Total Goal Assists
● Ranked 7th in Total Contested Possessions	● Ranked 10th in Total Clearances
● Ranked 7th in Total Centre Clearances	● Ranked 18th in Inside 50s Per Game
● Ranked 20th in Goal Assists Per Game	● Ranked 11th in Contested Possessions Per Game
● Ranked 12th in Clearances Per Game	● Ranked 9th in Centre Clearances Per Game

[TD valign="middle"]

2021 Statistical Rankings​

[/TD]

This is for the whole league , and that why in IMHO he is not only top 10, but probably top 5 , but once again, respect your views and thanks for letting us share in all your hard work

In 2020, over the whole league he was

6th in inside 50s per game

In 2019, he was 6th in GA per game

just looking at kicks and handballs doesn't do justice to Shai Boltons production, not even close, infact focussing on those stats probably skews the ratings draftees from poorer clubs as opposed to players from successful clubs , which is completely counter intuitive don't you think. Surely these should be a lift in rating for players that can actually contribute to teams that win finals and flags instead of spoons

Anyway enough said, I better leave this here before I am hounded out and banned from this thread as well lol.

Always happy for the discussion and different perspectives.

2 games isn't a meaningful sample to suggest with the better players all that much. If he keeps up those numbers and holds that position (I'm not as confident as you are at this stage), then we might be talking about someone who can get even more recognition for his performance.

I'm not sure our viewpoints are as far off though as you're assuming.

If you're to ask me who Richmond's second best player is today. I'd have to sit and think, because it is a conversation with a number of guys in that mix (Grimes/Vlastuin/Short/Edwards/Lynch/Astbury/Baker/a healthy Houli - in no particular order). All those guys are your All-Australian contenders. I'd even be tempted by Balta if he improves this year). But give me a minute and I'd probably come to Bolton given the impact he has on games.

When I'm talking 'premier' players in the competition I'm talking about those top-5, maybe top-10 in competition standard guys as an absolute maximum. Is Bolton in your mind in the same tier with the likes of Dusty/Danger/Petracca/Bont/Oliver/Fyfe/Macrae/Steele/Gawn/Grundy? I can't speak for others, but I have Bolton a definite tier below those guys assuming good form/health.

My point with Bolton is, if he wants to join that 'premier' and let's call it top-10 in the competition standard on performance. Bolton will need to not only have the impact per possession he has - and as per the stats you selected, it shows how much impact he has with those possessions. If he becomes that 25d, 5-6t player, with that impact per possession. He can enter that conversation.

 

[Mutineer]

As expected ....

The defence rests your honour

 

[GUMBLETRON]

Were Phillips and Witherden on big money? I wouldn't have thought so. The money is rarely made public, so unlike in say the NBA where I can judge salary size, it's hard to know.

It's public-enough record both were on $500k-ish - big enough money that clubs didn't want to pay it to a reserves player and shedding them provided a route out of cap squeeze for Collingwood, or to pay for Daniher for Brisbane.

 

[GWS Goose]

It's public-enough record both were on $500k-ish - big enough money that clubs didn't want to pay it to a reserves player and shedding them provided a route out of cap squeeze for Collingwood, or to pay for Daniher for Brisbane.

Was about to say the same thing, there was plenty of discussion about it at the time without giving away exact number to know it was a factor

 

[Knightmare]

It's public-enough record both were on $500k-ish - big enough money that clubs didn't want to pay it to a reserves player and shedding them provided a route out of cap squeeze for Collingwood, or to pay for Daniher for Brisbane.

I don't regard either on quality as reserve level players. I'd be very happy if I could have both as freebies. I don't see that kind of money as horrendous as long as the contract is short enough. You'd be able to negotiate that down next contract I'm sure so as long as the deals aren't too long, I wouldn't be losing sleep as they're both able footballers.

 

[kaskader]

Were Phillips and Witherden on big money? I wouldn't have thought so. The money is rarely made public, so unlike in say the NBA where I can judge salary size, it's hard to know.



Always happy for the discussion and different perspectives.

2 games isn't a meaningful sample to suggest with the better players all that much. If he keeps up those numbers and holds that position (I'm not as confident as you are at this stage), then we might be talking about someone who can get even more recognition for his performance.

I'm not sure our viewpoints are as far off though as you're assuming.

If you're to ask me who Richmond's second best player is today. I'd have to sit and think, because it is a conversation with a number of guys in that mix (Grimes/Vlastuin/Short/Edwards/Lynch/Astbury/Baker/a healthy Houli - in no particular order). All those guys are your All-Australian contenders. I'd even be tempted by Balta if he improves this year). But give me a minute and I'd probably come to Bolton given the impact he has on games.

When I'm talking 'premier' players in the competition I'm talking about those top-5, maybe top-10 in competition standard guys as an absolute maximum. Is Bolton in your mind in the same tier with the likes of Dusty/Danger/Petracca/Bont/Oliver/Fyfe/Macrae/Steele/Gawn/Grundy? I can't speak for others, but I have Bolton a definite tier below those guys assuming good form/health.

My point with Bolton is, if he wants to join that 'premier' and let's call it top-10 in the competition standard on performance. Bolton will need to not only have the impact per possession he has - and as per the stats you selected, it shows how much impact he has with those possessions. If he becomes that 25d, 5-6t player, with that impact per possession. He can enter that conversation.

I love Baker but I can't believe you just put him in this group...sometimes height and size does matter and him getting run over by Cripps is a sign that sometimes there are physical limits to what a player can be.

And no Prestia?

 

[briztoon]

Were Phillips and Witherden on big money? I wouldn't have thought so. The money is rarely made public, so unlike in say the NBA where I can judge salary size, it's hard to know.

The Lions trading of Witherden was 100% a salary dump because he had fallen outside of our best 22.

He took a pay cut when he moved to West Coast, and the Lions are still paying part of his salary this season.

You don’t follow each club as closely as fans of a particular club do, so you will never get as much information as fans of each individual club do.

Witherden wasn’t viewed as a best 22 player moving forward by the Lions coaches. Lots of Lions fans didn’t agree with the decision, but that’s what it was.

 

[Knightmare]

I love Baker but I can't believe you just put him in this group...sometimes height and size does matter and him getting run over by Cripps is a sign that sometimes there are physical limits to what a player can be.

And no Prestia?

Absolutely Prestia is in there with that guys, and in that same tier on quality with those others.

Baker had a good 2020. He went from a nobody to a somebody really good. He's far from the top of that group, but I'd have him in there based off of 2020 play. He's a clear-cut best-22 player on any team in the competition and is one of many components who make Richmond's defence the competition's best.

 

[kaskader]

Absolutely Prestia is in there with that guys, and in that same tier on quality with those others.

Baker had a good 2020. He went from a nobody to a somebody really good. He's far from the top of that group, but I'd have him in there based off of 2020 play. He's a clear-cut best-22 player on any team in the competition and is one of many components who make Richmond's defence the competition's best.

Seems like you just want to pick Richmond's defense as their 2nd best player behind Dusty (since you picked their entire back 7). I'd generally agree with that

You might be slightly underrating their midfielders/forwards as a result though? Will be interesting to see what happens with Bolton's potential free agency and how other clubs value him. For the right team, I might just rate him over Oliver/Steele/Gawn/Grundy. If we went by your list of the competition's top 10, I know its a team game but the Dees with purportedly 3 of the best 10 players in the league you'd think would be better than they are.

 

[Knightmare]

Seems like you just want to pick Richmond's defense as their 2nd best player behind Dusty (since you picked their entire back 7). I'd generally agree with that

You might be slightly underrating their midfielders/forwards as a result though? Will be interesting to see what happens with Bolton's potential free agency and how other clubs value him. For the right team, I might just rate him over Oliver/Steele/Gawn/Grundy. If we went by your list of the competition's top 10, I know its a team game but the Dees with purportedly 3 of the best 10 players in the league you'd think would be better than they are.

Richmond's defence is the one line across the field of superiority, where on talent/components they match up not only favourably, but decisively favourably against any other team for mine. The pressure up the field helps make their life easier, makes intercepting easier and makes Richmond even more damaging on the rebound, but that defence is all-time great with not only the structure and system, but the combination of pieces and no weak links when they have their best group available.

I can't say I have Bolton over Oliver/Steele/Gawn/Grundy yet, and after that top-10, I'd be confident I'd have at least another 10 ahead of Bolton if I want to win a game tomorrow. I'm not sure he'd necessarily be quite inside that starting-22, though he would be in that mix, but he would very likely make an All AFL second team if I was to put one together, to give a feel for where relatively I regard Bolton's play from last year.

Open to hearing how the views of others on Richmond, their defence and for that matter Bolton differ though.

 

[SunshineHawkCal]

Knightmare who are the classy midfielders to likely go in the 1st round, also a midfielder that has class & pace?

 

[Knightmare]

I've mentioned on Twitter and I'll mention on here too, my first power rankings of the year will be on ESPN.com.au/AFL tomorrow.

Knightmare who are the classy midfielders to likely go in the 1st round, also a midfielder that has class & pace?

This is a draft filled with class and speed. And it's convenient timing with the game shifting to be less stoppage oriented and with more outside play. Honestly, the first nine of my 10 in my power rankings has some degree of class (the other is a KPP), with Horne, Rachele, Sonsie and Sinn of those 10 the guys with pace.