Opinion Matthew Nicks: Adelaide's Coach (Part 2) - Full Support of the Board

[George Kramer]

All good, if you believe holding off doesn't impact the Club .....or have other Clubs planning a raid

Yes, I know ....the argument is, who would pinch a Coach that hasn't played finals yet .....that's a biased club POV and naive
And so changing the coach will disrupt the Clubs premiership push ....new Coach, new gameplan inevitably .....just slows us down another year

If people haven't seen enough already ....then they are the only one's in the footy industry who aren't impressed

I seem to remember St Kilda taking a similar POV with Ross Lyon .....in the bag, he ain't going anywhere .....next minute Ross is at FREO, shocking the Saints
Ross was more likely to win a flag staying at the SAINTS .....but as a career coach he chose surity of tenure

As Drugs said has a coach been poached if they haven’t made finals? Ross Lyon had, even a GF.

And yet plenty in the industry have said no rush to re-sign him.

Slows our premiership push, what like Collingwood and McRae?

 

[FR0GGY]

All good, if you believe holding off doesn't impact the Club .....or have other Clubs planning a raid

Yes, I know ....the argument is, who would pinch a Coach that hasn't played finals yet .....that's a biased club POV and naive
And so changing the coach will disrupt the Clubs premiership push ....new Coach, new gameplan inevitably .....just slows us down another year

If people haven't seen enough already ....then they are the only one's in the footy industry who aren't impressed

I seem to remember St Kilda taking a similar POV with Ross Lyon .....in the bag, he ain't going anywhere .....next minute Ross is at FREO, shocking the Saints
Ross was more likely to win a flag staying at the SAINTS .....but as a career coach he chose surity of tenure

And how much damage to re-sign a dud (for the sake of the argument)?
If we re-signed him and he turned out to be no good it’s a minimum of another 2 years wasted coming into our prime contention years.

 

[George Kramer]

And how much damage to re-sign a dud (for the sake of the argument)?
If we re-signed him and he turned out to be no good it’s a minimum of another 2 years wasted coming into our prime contention years.

There is no argument for re-signing Nicks now before the season has started, none, despite what delusions Wayne uses to try and justify it.

If we start 0-4, 2-6, would we be in a rush to re-sign him? Would other clubs want to poach him? Not a chance. If we are 6-2 then we do and he ain’t going anywhere. For starters there more than likely will be no coaching vacancies and Nicks isn’t going to turn his back on a sure thing by staying with us in the hope that he could get picked up elsewhere.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

The club might be all but sold on Nicks as our (even) longer term coach but you don't want any hint of comfortable

Needs to be a sense of urgency around the club this year

 

[Samcro24]

Why the **** would we extend a coach that is zero chance of being lured away to another club, now, or before, during the bye, or at any time before we’ve actually secured a finals spot?

Madness

 

[1970crow]

It's a reasonable argument, though I'd be very comfortable with us extending Nicks at this point.

All risk, no reward doing that though. He's not getting stolen from under our noses, so might as well see how the first dozen rounds pan out.

 

[El Doederino]

Are there any other senior coaches who have been raided/poached having never made finals?

Or just poached/raided in general? Apart from Lyons, I can't think of too many in recent times.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Or just poached/raided in general? Apart from Lyons, I can't think of too many in recent times.

Do rumours started by Hinkley's manager in contract years count?

 

[1970crow]

As Drugs said has a coach been poached if they haven’t made finals? Ross Lyon had, even a GF.

And yet plenty in the industry have said no rush to re-sign him.

Slows our premiership push, what like Collingwood and McRae?

At this stage it looks like AFC decision makers are in the incompetent boat with the rest of the industry that want to see more.

 

[1970crow]

And how much damage to re-sign a dud (for the sake of the argument)?
If we re-signed him and he turned out to be no good it’s a minimum of another 2 years wasted coming into our prime contention years.

And we end up paying him out and our footy dept looks like it did after Pike & Burton got the chop.

 

[adelaidecrows]

All good, if you believe holding off doesn't impact the Club .....or have other Clubs planning a raid

Yes, I know ....the argument is, who would pinch a Coach that hasn't played finals yet .....that's a biased club POV and naive
And so changing the coach will disrupt the Clubs premiership push ....new Coach, new gameplan inevitably .....just slows us down another year

If people haven't seen enough already ....then they are the only one's in the footy industry who aren't impressed

I seem to remember St Kilda taking a similar POV with Ross Lyon .....in the bag, he ain't going anywhere .....next minute Ross is at FREO, shocking the Saints
Ross was more likely to win a flag staying at the SAINTS .....but as a career coach he chose surity of tenure

As I said, signing him now maybe cheap but could cost us long term. Whereas in 6 months time, we may have to pay a lot more to keep him but if he has earned that contract, no one is going to be upset if we have to offer an exorbitant long term deal. This is what I am getting at. Signing him now out of fear of losing a coach would be nothing more than being scared of losing a maybe with no real confidence that he can do the job.

 

[baldandbroke]

All good, if you believe holding off doesn't impact the Club .....or have other Clubs planning a raid

Yes, I know ....the argument is, who would pinch a Coach that hasn't played finals yet .....that's a biased club POV and naive
And so changing the coach will disrupt the Clubs premiership push ....new Coach, new gameplan inevitably .....just slows us down another year

If people haven't seen enough already ....then they are the only one's in the footy industry who aren't impressed

I seem to remember St Kilda taking a similar POV with Ross Lyon .....in the bag, he ain't going anywhere .....next minute Ross is at FREO, shocking the Saints
Ross was more likely to win a flag staying at the SAINTS .....but as a career coach he chose surity of tenure

What if … what Nicks has done so far is what he is good at?

The start of a rebuild, resetting the culture, making the place a positive place to be.

What if that’s his go?

We don’t want to sign him up based on what he has done off the field - because we now need it to be done in the field.

So far we have done nothing on the field under Nicks. Nothing worth discussing.

Nicks knows this.

I hope he becomes the coach we all hope he can be … but not until we see it in the flesh on game day will we know it for sure.

So until we hit that point, signing him up for more years is absurdity.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

What if … what Nicks has done so far is what he is good at?

The start of a rebuild, resetting the culture, making the place a positive place to be.

What if that’s his go?

We don’t want to sign him up based on what he has done off the field - because we now need it to be done in the field.

So far we have done nothing on the field under Nicks. Nothing worth discussing.

Nicks knows this.

I hope he becomes the coach we all hope he can be … but not until we see it in the flesh on game day will we know it for sure.

So until we hit that point, signing him up for more years is absurdity.

So another 5-8 games changes opinions on Nicks as a Coach .....we're pretty flakey as a Club if our opinions change that quickly

 

[George Kramer]

So another 5-8 games changes opinions on Nicks as a Coach .....we're pretty flakey as a Club if our opinions change that quickly

No, that’s indicative of another season of not playing finals, you re-signing him if we miss again or go backwards?

A 2-6 start to the season for example and we are no chance. Would you re-sign with a start like that? Or would you wait to see how the season pans out? Who is head hunting him after a 2-6 start?

As for flakey…..

 

[CharlieCrow]

I agree with most of what people are saying above. There should be no rush to sign him. I might even wait until the end of the year!

It appears to me that we have an excellent list capable of a solid block of finals appearances over a number of years. He has done well so far but he needs to get us into the eight this year. And then we we need a demonstration that he has that defining skill; the skill that makes us win finals and takes us to the flag. We have had Craig and Ayres who could could get us into finals but fail at the business end. Hinkley and Lyon are current coaches with similar attributes and I think that Fagan might be the same (harsh).

And there is one more thing - let's also see how he manages the coaching panel with the loss of James Rahilly

James Rahilly

Age

45

Ht

187cm

Wt

84kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.0

4star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

6.4

2star

K

2.8

1star

HB

3.6

3star

M

0.6

1star

T

1.0

3star

. The general view is that he was pretty instrumental in our successes last year.

 

[Golumless]

That’s dumb

Not really, this is like most things where the first logical thought that appears usually isn't the correct one.

It's a simple equation. If as an admin group, you are confident the club is tracking the right way, you don't waste your time and extend Nicks now. If you're unsure, you wait, though if you're unsure after four years, that says it's time to move on from Nicks regardless what goes on in 2024. After all, we have four years of Nicks track record in the books and should have a very good idea of how this rebuild is progressing, and what he's like as a coach.

At this point, our admin group should be very confident they've got the right man. There really isn't much in Adelaides record in the last 2-3 years to indicate otherwise.

I would wait until the bye. This coming season is Nicks first opportunity to demonstrate his coaching ability with a squad that not only should make finals but should push top 4. An audition if you will, to see if he has genuinely developed his skills as a coach in a way that maximises our rebuild and can take us into the post rebuild era. As of right now, I am not convinced he has shown us enough and without doubt the club feels the same way otherwise they would have signed him.

The decision for me shouldn't be a two year extension, I think it should be a 3 or 4 year extension because thats what we'd offer a new coach heading up a squad looking to play finals. If we turn around and offer him a new contract as of now for a two year extension, we rob ourselves of that ability to adequately plan. If by waiting until mid year sees us 10-2, and we have to offer Nicks an extra $100k per season upon his worth now, so be it. I'd be more than comfortable offer in market rates for Nicks if he proves he can do it. At the same time though, if by waiting until mid year sees us 7-5, we lost easily to the top teams, At least we can take that into account and plan accordingly.

Nicks had 4 years to demonstrate his coaching ability, so any talk of "auditioning" is just living in a fantasy world. Nicks may have been given 2020 as a write-off year, but from '21 onwards, we've likely had targets for him to meet to say we're happy/satistifed/whatever with the overall progress. Whether that's a 5 win season, a 7 win season or whatever or if there are other targets to meet with game plan. In reality, we'd have a solid opinion of what Nicks is capable of long before a ball is kicked because there is that 4 year record of his results against the boards expectations.

Personally, I expect us to sign Nicks on for two years just before round 1. There really isn't any smoke that we're even mildly concerned with Nicks coaching ability, and the AFL industry has been strangely loyal to coaches (compared to other sports who'll replace them if they breathe wrong) in the last 20 years.

All risk, no reward doing that though. He's not getting stolen from under our noses, so might as well see how the first dozen rounds pan out.

Poaching isn't the risk here, it's all internal. Seeing it could drive a coaching group into a panicked job-saving mode if stuff goes wrong - even if it's just injuries mount up - which could in turn lead towards a lost season of player development as visions change or an identity gets muddled.

All a resigning means is it increases a pay-out and as we're seemingly a financially stable club, that's a mild risk at best, seeing it's more of a question if we cross the luxury tax threshold - and the luxury tax rate has decreased in 2024 and Nicks isn't a particularly expensive resigning.

As said, it's purely a question of if the board is confident, and Adelaide would already know what they're doing with Nicks. Heck, the only person who benefits with a lack of an extension is Nicks at this point.

At this stage it looks like AFC decision makers are in the incompetent boat with the rest of the industry that want to see more.

The AFL industry has no interest in any club being incompetent - and the AFL itself has shown time and time again they'll bend over backwards to fix broken clubs. It has a pretty consistent history though where it'll protect competent coaches, even if it means a club gets stuck as a inconsistent finalist.

What if … what Nicks has done so far is what he is good at?

The start of a rebuild, resetting the culture, making the place a positive place to be.

What if that’s his go?

We don’t want to sign him up based on what he has done off the field - because we now need it to be done in the field.

So far we have done nothing on the field under Nicks. Nothing worth discussing.

Nicks knows this.

I hope he becomes the coach we all hope he can be … but not until we see it in the flesh on game day will we know it for sure.

So until we hit that point, signing him up for more years is absurdity.

Of course there is stuff we've done on the field that is worth discussing. We're run by fools if our top brass think otherwise. Heck, the biggest thing is there progression with the game plan and are we getting better in a measurable way to show Nicks and co. ideas have merit.

For all the talk about 'culture', 'resetting the place', Nicks would have been judged for his on field results from his second year (he probably gets the COVID year wiped from the record). It's just the expecations have been low until probably last year where it would have likely been set at being a solid mid-table side.

 

[Samcro24]

I feel the jury is still out. Theres been some good, but some amateurish mistakes.

Theres a bit of talent on the list now, and 12 (13?) games at AO. Assuming the squad stays relatively healthy, I think the benchmark is make finals, and probably win at least one.

They have the luxury of waiting to see how that plays out before committing, so why not use it?

Extend him now, or mid year, only to finish 9th or worse, and we’re stuck. If we’re top 4 mid year and finals are locked in, then sure.

 

[baldandbroke]

Of course there is stuff we've done on the field that is worth discussing. We're run by fools if our top brass think otherwise. Heck, the biggest thing is there progression with the game plan and are we getting better in a measurable way to show Nicks and co. ideas have merit.

For all the talk about 'culture', 'resetting the place', Nicks would have been judged for his on field results from his second year (he probably gets the COVID year wiped from the record). It's just the expecations have been low until probably last year where it would have likely been set at being a solid mid-table side.

What has Nicks done on field that should be in the discussion list for a coach seeking resigning in his final year?

Dominating North and West Coast?
Getting close to good sides?
Hardly ever winning away?

I expect this will change in 2024, but if it doesn’t … then why extend? To help morale?

I truly believe that Nicks would be the first to say that he needs to get results in 2024. That all the foundation stuff is behind him, time to win more games.

 

[Multiballz]

So another 5-8 games changes opinions on Nicks as a Coach .....we're pretty flakey as a Club if our opinions change that quickly

Agreed, shouldnt make any move until finals are locked in, or not.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Not really, this is like most things where the first logical thought that appears usually isn't the correct one.

It's a simple equation. If as an admin group, you are confident the club is tracking the right way, you don't waste your time and extend Nicks now. If you're unsure, you wait, though if you're unsure after four years, that says it's time to move on from Nicks regardless what goes on in 2024. After all, we have four years of Nicks track record in the books and should have a very good idea of how this rebuild is progressing, and what he's like as a coach.

At this point, our admin group should be very confident they've got the right man. There really isn't much in Adelaides record in the last 2-3 years to indicate otherwise.



Nicks had 4 years to demonstrate his coaching ability, so any talk of "auditioning" is just living in a fantasy world. Nicks may have been given 2020 as a write-off year, but from '21 onwards, we've likely had targets for him to meet to say we're happy/satistifed/whatever with the overall progress. Whether that's a 5 win season, a 7 win season or whatever or if there are other targets to meet with game plan. In reality, we'd have a solid opinion of what Nicks is capable of long before a ball is kicked because there is that 4 year record of his results against the boards expectations.

Personally, I expect us to sign Nicks on for two years just before round 1. There really isn't any smoke that we're even mildly concerned with Nicks coaching ability, and the AFL industry has been strangely loyal to coaches (compared to other sports who'll replace them if they breathe wrong) in the last 20 years.



Poaching isn't the risk here, it's all internal. Seeing it could drive a coaching group into a panicked job-saving mode if stuff goes wrong - even if it's just injuries mount up - which could in turn lead towards a lost season of player development as visions change or an identity gets muddled.

All a resigning means is it increases a pay-out and as we're seemingly a financially stable club, that's a mild risk at best, seeing it's more of a question if we cross the luxury tax threshold - and the luxury tax rate has decreased in 2024 and Nicks isn't a particularly expensive resigning.

As said, it's purely a question of if the board is confident, and Adelaide would already know what they're doing with Nicks. Heck, the only person who benefits with a lack of an extension is Nicks at this point.



The AFL industry has no interest in any club being incompetent - and the AFL itself has shown time and time again they'll bend over backwards to fix broken clubs. It has a pretty consistent history though where it'll protect competent coaches, even if it means a club gets stuck as a inconsistent finalist.



Of course there is stuff we've done on the field that is worth discussing. We're run by fools if our top brass think otherwise. Heck, the biggest thing is there progression with the game plan and are we getting better in a measurable way to show Nicks and co. ideas have merit.

For all the talk about 'culture', 'resetting the place', Nicks would have been judged for his on field results from his second year (he probably gets the COVID year wiped from the record). It's just the expecations have been low until probably last year where it would have likely been set at being a solid mid-table side.

Why haven't they extended him now then do you think?

They've had 4 years after all with all the positive signs

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

It's a reasonable argument, though I'd be very comfortable with us extending Nicks at this point.

No, we should wait until we appear to be looking good for finals next season.

There is no rush.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

All good, if you believe holding off doesn't impact the Club .....or have other Clubs planning a raid

Yes, I know ....the argument is, who would pinch a Coach that hasn't played finals yet .....that's a biased club POV and naive
And so changing the coach will disrupt the Clubs premiership push ....new Coach, new gameplan inevitably .....just slows us down another year

If people haven't seen enough already ....then they are the only one's in the footy industry who aren't impressed

I seem to remember St Kilda taking a similar POV with Ross Lyon .....in the bag, he ain't going anywhere .....next minute Ross is at FREO, shocking the Saints
Ross was more likely to win a flag staying at the SAINTS .....but as a career coach he chose surity of tenure

Nicks isn't going to suddenly leave the club if we are tracking for finals... given the effort he has put into this young group.

There is no risk.

 

[El Doederino]

We lost so many games last year by small margins, that in itself could be a problem Nicks is not able to overcome.

Add on our terrible record and form on the road. We did okay against good sides on the road (but could never seal the win) but were shocking against lesser clubs. That needs to change.

Before the bye, we have away games against: Gold Coast, Freo, Carlton, North, Collingwood, Hawthorn. We should really win 4 out of 6 of those. North and Hawthorn wins should be a given, especially with Day out for Hawthorn. Freo and Gold Coast will be tougher, but if we're serious about giving the next few years to Nicks, he needs to get us putting teams like that away on the road.

Basically, if we are still on the losing side of the ledger in all our tight games, and play like spliffs away to the teams we should be beating, then we need to let Nicks time with us lapse and invest in the coach that will overcome these problems.

 

[1970crow]

Went from 10 wins and 11th in Pyke's last year to bottom and after 4 years back to 10th with an extra win, but from an extra home game. That's just not a record worthy of 7-8 years in the job. Once there's real evidence that he's taking us further than where Pyke left us, we should begin discussing an extension. He's rightfully got 2024 to prove he deserves an extension.

 

[WaynesWorld19]

Why haven't they extended him now then do you think?

They've had 4 years after all with all the positive signs

It's a little bit of AFL political appeasement .....decision has already been made by the Club ......akin to WCE having to wait the full 2 min allotted time, b4 naming Harley Reid @ #1 .....just dramatising the inevitable