Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Have settled on Tiger Moth as my top pick.
Gate just means a better price and can see him starting big overs on the tote with all the once-a-yearer’s getting sucked in to horses that can’t win like Surprise Baby
Will be going hard on an Irish 3 horse quinella too.

And we have a hemisphere war.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Tiger Moth struggles to stay so much i'd be surprised if he's still on course by race 7.

 

[Santoz]

No he won't - he has come to the correct conclusion already.

When it's rolled it 11L & 8L I think there's a fair bit of sarcasm attached to that call.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Keep fighting the good fight Jug. Moth no chance against the baby.

Sorry but that’s utter rubbish liefsy
TM the better horse, draw only thing that brings them closer

 

[iluvparis]

When it's rolled it 11L & 8L I think there's a fair bit of sarcasm attached to that call.

The sad thing is there isn't.

 

[Veer Right]

No it sat on one of the slowest paces ever seen and shied at the whip when he went to hit it - he would have won it handily if it was any good.

AVD has to go in all multiples - has come here in form and is the best horse in the race.

Happy to punt you a thousand dollars heads up MOR vs AVD mine for yours.

I'm giving you great odds here.

Chism can hold the money.

 

[iluvparis]

Happy to punt you a thousand dollars heads up MOR vs AVD mine for yours.

I'm giving you great odds here.

Chism can hold the money.

How about a $50 quaddie on the last day of the carnival?

 

[Santoz]

Happy to punt you a thousand dollars heads up MOR vs AVD mine for yours.

I'm giving you great odds here.

Chism can hold the money.

I like MOR but I'm not as confident as you here.

Why so confident?

 

[Veer Right]

How about a $50 quaddie on the last day of the carnival?

done.

 

[iluvparis]

I like MOR but I'm not as confident as you here.

Why so confident?

Because if it couldn't win it last year when gifted the race by a once in a century slow pace I can't see how he can possibly improve on that run this year. Must go backwards for mine.

 

[FallingLiefs]

View attachment 1000745
Sorry but that’s utter rubbish liefsy
TM the better horse, draw only thing that brings them closer

Yeah the draw is a huge setback for baby, had he pulled Tiger Moths gate they could just ride him like the best horse in the race and not gets stuck inside horses. It's the only reason he's $10 at the moment.

 

[iluvparis]

done.

Cheers - ill place it in the props thread

 

[Chism]

Because if it couldn't win it last year when gifted the race by a once in a century slow pace I can't see how he can possibly improve on that run this year. Must go backwards for mine.

While your argument makes sense horse racing just holds to many variables. Slow pace / fast pace / barrier draws / jockey changes / gear changes / natural improvement or regression etc etc coupled with weight carrying and it is just such an unknown regarding raceday.

I agree that exposed form is the best to go off but gee the variables that make this sport what it is cannot be ignored.

A maiden Cat just won a 2 million Derby yesterday FFS! There are just to many variables outside of exposed form to totally rule out horses that have made the field.

 

[iluvparis]

While your argument makes sense horse racing just holds to many variables. Slow pace / fast pace / barrier draws / jockey changes / gear changes / natural improvement or regression etc etc coupled with weight carrying and it is just such an unknown regarding raceday.

I agree that exposed form is the best to go off but gee the variables that make this sport what it is cannot be ignored.

A maiden Cat just won a 2 million Derby yesterday FFS! There are just to many variables outside of exposed form to totally rule out horses that have made the field.

I guess that's my point though - he got a 1 in 50 set of variables in his favour last year and couldn't win. On that basis I have to leave him out of everything.

 

[Chism]

I guess that's my point though - he got a 1 in 50 set of variables in his favour last year and couldn't win. On that basis I have to leave him out of everything.

I agree and will not argue with that chain of thought as usually it holds up from time to time but the Cup is totally different and if you make the field and can run out 3200m your are a chance.

 

[FallingLiefs]

A maiden Cat just won a 2 million Derby yesterday FFS!

This and the other comment is peak punting board. Not only jumping the shark there’s no shark even in the water at the moment. Maidens winning happens regularly in these spring staying events for the youngsters enjoy the story rather than criticising at every opportunity ya grinch.

Great day yesterday despite not stacking up on quality and me not winning a cent I enjoyed it immensely how can you not on derby day.

 

[Veer Right]

I like MOR but I'm not as confident as you here.

Why so confident?

Gone over each run and i believe the St leger trial run is better then anything else in this race. Sat three wide from the 1600m and tail of the field and kept coming. Next start waltzed home. Set for Tuesday and will run two miles not a problem in the world. Beaten a length last year behind the best stayer in Europe over 4000m in Stradivarius when breezed. Going better this year too. I think they sit midfield this year.

 

[Chism]

This and the other comment is peak punting board. Not only jumping the shark there’s no shark even in the water at the moment. Maidens winning happens regularly in these spring staying events for the youngsters enjoy the story rather than criticising at every opportunity ya grinch.

Great day yesterday despite not stacking up on quality and me not winning a cent I enjoyed it immensely how can you not on derby day.

Who mentioned Xmas? Lol

Lol and all good but in all honesty I do not rate Johnny come lately even though he won. But that is horse racing.

On their day given the right run regarding /barriers / track conditions / distances / weights etc etc any horse can win any race it is entered in and that is the game.

Most likely why it is also called the Mugs game for everyday blokes that punt on it.

 

[iluvparis]

Gone over each run and i believe the St leger trial run is better then anything else in this race. Sat three wide from the 1600m and tail of the field and kept coming. Next start waltzed home. Set for Tuesday and will run two miles not a problem in the world. Beaten a length last year behind the best stayer in Europe over 4000m in Stradivarius when breezed. Going better this year too. I think they sit midfield this year.

As a guide - no form analyst on earth would be able to come up with this conclusion. Pretty much every raider in the race will have had a better performance than this.

 

[Veer Right]

As a guide - no form analyst on earth would be able to come up with this conclusion. Pretty much every raider in the race will have had a better performance than this.

We had the same chat last year and we saw what happened. Time will tell.

FWIW i have it down to four, MOR, Tiger Moth, Prince of Arran and Twilight Payment. Seeing as two of them are eight year olds i shall be banking heavily towards the other two. Good luck on Tuesday Paris.

 

[iluvparis]

We had the same chat last year and we saw what happened. Time will tell.

FWIW i have it down to four, MOR, Tiger Moth, Prince of Arran and Twilight Payment. Seeing as two of them are eight year olds i shall be banking heavily towards the other two. Good luck on Tuesday Paris.

Yeah last year he got kissed on the dick with everything going right and still got rolled.

 

[Jugada]

I don't mind MOR to fill a drum for exotics but the idea that the St Leger trial defeat is the best performance of anything leading in is an absolutely horrific call

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

When it's rolled it 11L & 8L I think there's a fair bit of sarcasm attached to that call.

You'd bloody hope so

 

[Drakescoffeecake]

Gone over each run and i believe the St leger trial run is better then anything else in this race. Sat three wide from the 1600m and tail of the field and kept coming.

Not forgetting TP sat three wide the entire trip in the St Ledger and only finished 2 lengths from the winner?

going better this year too.

Better? Shit well how good is TP going then???

 

[The GOAT]

The main problem I have with TP is that it is 8 years old. Good to include in the bottom part of first 4s though.