Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[iluvparis]

PARIS POWER RANKINGS

Thought I'd roll some weekly power rankings for a laugh and partially to help my thought process going forward into the race. Looking through the betting markets and jeez its dire out there.

1 - DEPLHI ($36 betfair) - Profiles like the recent 3yos that have dominated this race. Entered under the Freedman training tag so you know he's coming.
2 - SURPRISE BABY ($10.50) - Stevie Wonder couldn't have missed its run last year when it was probably a certainty beaten. A repeat of that has it right in the finish again this year.
3 - SIR DRAGONET ($36) - I think he might be more of a CC/CP type but those types have run well in this before (think Johannes Vermeer). Think he is the most untapped of the 4yos and has a nice SP profile back in the UK.
4 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($22) - Had a Cup weight last year and went to the CP. Now actually in CP form and they want to come here with a WFA horses weight. Almost top pick with last years weight but it will be a mighty effort for her to win with the impost she will get.
5 - TIGER MOTH ($160) - Almost the pick of the 3yos but can only have him at #5 given I've heard zero about him coming.
6 - PRINCE OF ARRAN ($65) - Modern day Red Cadeaux in that he is dogshit back home but grows a leg out here. Will run well again if he comes.
7 - COLETTE ($95) - Only gets in the list as she was dominant in AJC Oaks and hasn't run yet to show the form is rubbish (it probably is).
8 - DASHING WILLOUGHBY ($42) - Definitely coming but has that crappy profile of winning early season in the UK then looking a plodder once the big boys come out. That profile ususally doesn't stack up.
9 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT ($11) - some of the biggest poi poi you will ever see in every antepost market. Scrapes into top 10 but will be quick to dump him out if he fails first up. Remindes me of the year Puissance De Lune was fave for everything and was quickly found out.
10 - FINCHE ($40) - can't win as we saw with two golden opportunities last year but honest as the day is long and could go top 5 in both.

And from the initial top 10 we managed to get 7 horses in to the field - not a bad effort.

You would have huge overs on Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Tiger Moth (160 if you don't mind!), Prince of Arran and Finche

 

[Jugada]

Back in the day when you weren't rubbing one out to that Camel getting beaten nearly every time he stepped out. What a time it was

 

[toxic]

Here's the trend in the top 10 over the 10 weeks I've been running the Power rankings. The clear trend is the non class gallopers (SB, POA, Finche) steadily declining as better horses come on the scene and show they are in form.

View attachment 1001033

 

[iluvparis]

Back in the day when you weren't rubbing one out to that Camel getting beaten nearly every time he stepped out. What a time it was

Dont worry fren. I’m sure surprise baby might win a race again at some stage

 

[Dominion]

"Bad gate just means better price" is what we thought about AVD in the CC. This has "Certainty beat by some nag that covered a kilometer less ground than it in the run" written all over it. Still, It's got my money, but the feeling of Deja Vu is there and strong.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Despite his racing pattern I don't see how he doesn't snag back and try overtake the field. Draws a gate he goes forward. It's a big loss for a horse with some early speed. The overreaction was massive on barrier draw day but that's all dissolved now and he's back into fave. It's foolish to think it means nothing, he just has to do it a different way.

 

[iluvparis]

"Bad gate just means better price" is what we thought about AVD in the CC. This has "Certainty beat by some nag that covered a kilometer less ground than it in the run" written all over it. Still, It's got my money, but the feeling of Deja Vu is there and strong.

if it runs as well as AVD did in the Caulfield Cup it is borderline just wins territory it has that much on them at the weights I will be extremely happy with my bet at huge overs.

 

[come on oliver]

And from the initial top 10 we managed to get 7 horses in to the field - not a bad effort.

You would have huge overs on Sir Dragonet, Verry Elleegant, Tiger Moth (160 if you don't mind!), Prince of Arran and Finche

Top work mate. Thanks for your thoughts

 

[Dominion]

if it runs as well as AVD did in the Caulfield Cup it is borderline just wins territory it has that much on them at the weights I will be extremely happy with my bet at huge overs.

Yep I'll be on too don't get me wrong, but I'd be FAR happier taking a $1-2 less to see it jumping from somewhere in same postcode as the others

 

[iluvparis]

Yep I'll be on too don't get me wrong, but I'd be FAR happier taking a $1-2 less to see it jumping from somewhere in same postcode as the others

happy to take the better price. Just don’t think it matters that much

 

[Commando]

Like most years something will likely place 3rd-4th at big odds...

What are we including in multiples?
Steel Prince
Warning
Twilight Payment
KOL
Miami
TCO
Persan

Trying to narrow this down to a couple..

 

[iluvparis]

Like most years something will likely place 3rd-4th at big odds...

What are we including in multiples?
Steel Prince
Warning
Twilight Payment
KOL
Miami
TCO
Persan

Trying to narrow this down to a couple..

Steel Prince is the only one of those I have

My next of that bunch would be Twilight Payment

 

[iluvparis]

60k in the S-TAB win pool

POA current tote fave at 9.10 - LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Biggest unders relative to fixed - The Chosen One (early NZ money?)
Biggest overs relative to fixed - TM/AVD - hopefully continues when the surprise baby fappers get on board.

100k in the pool now

POA still fave at 8.60 - LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Biggest unders relative to fixed - still the Chosen One
Biggest overs relative to fixed - Tiger Moth

 

[Big Bryza]

I'll be having a decent crack at Tiger Moth. Just the obvious play and those odds are too good to refuse.

 

[Hawksboy72]

wrong

No - we haven't been over sold on the European 3yos - they should have won the last 3 runnings and he is absolutely thrown in. If something is going to run right away from them on the day it is the Moth.

Explain to me how I'm wrong.

 

[kicksome]

What are we including in multiples?
Steel Prince
Warning
Twilight Payment
KOL
Miami
TCO
Persan

i'm chucking in Master of Reality and Ashrun, both will see out the 3200.

 

[LFC2010]

100k in the pool now

POA still fave at 8.60 - LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Biggest unders relative to fixed - still the Chosen One
Biggest overs relative to fixed - Tiger Moth

The price is quite clearly the female jockey factor. The once a year female punters will want to have something on J Kah.

 

[Hawksboy72]

Like most years something will likely place 3rd-4th at big odds...

What are we including in multiples?
Steel Prince
Warning
Twilight Payment
KOL
Miami
TCO
Persan

Trying to narrow this down to a couple..

Warning...forgot the CC run. Goes well at Flemington, well drawn...dry track a bonus. Another 100 in the Turnbull and he wins.
I'd rather back him at 40's than a 3yo having it's 5th start, 1st up in a MC drawn outwide and being asked to take 8 or 9's.

 

[Gavin Excell]

100k in the pool now

POA still fave at 8.60 - LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOL
Biggest unders relative to fixed - still the Chosen One
Biggest overs relative to fixed - Tiger Moth

POA front page of Herald Sun and photographed with Jamie

 

[FallingLiefs]

Like most years something will likely place 3rd-4th at big odds...

What are we including in multiples?
Steel Prince
Warning
Twilight Payment
KOL
Miami
TCO
Persan

Trying to narrow this down to a couple..

Best winning chance of those is probably Miami Bound. Best place chances TCO,TP and I might have small go Stratum and Warninf.

 

[iluvparis]

Explain to me how I'm wrong.

Why does Sir D need a wet track when he beat Armoury further on better ground in Ireland and was less than a length off AVD in the Derby on good ground?

 

[iluvparis]

The price is quite clearly the female jockey factor. The once a year female punters will want to have something on J Kah.

Fair shout - normally Ollies comes up big unders on the tote for similar reasons

 

[HeathySure]

Just a word of warning to all
I see no pace ... always a bad sign for the best horses. That's why horses like Prince of Penzance and Vow and Declare win.

 

[iluvparis]

Warning...forgot the CC run. Goes well at Flemington, well drawn...dry track a bonus. Another 100 in the Turnbull and he wins.
I'd rather back him at 40's than a 3yo having it's 5th start, 1st up in a MC drawn outwide and being asked to take 8 or 9's.

Seems a massive stretch - going to need to do something more than magically improve 10 lengths because the race is at Flemington. Derby winners have a horrible record - doubt this guy changes that.

 

[Jugada]

Playing devils advocate for the Tiger Moth swooning.

Yes he is a NH 3yo which is a good profile lately but is still much more inexperienced than your Cross Counter or Rekindling who had twice as many starts before coming here. Rekindling was battle hardened against quality older horses in the St Leger before coming here and Cross Counter was in a year where the 3yos were dominating Euro racing.

Moths last win while looking good was also in a shit G3 race where Buckhurst was going around as second fav giving him like 6kg and we have seen how well he has gone out here.

He is on the first line for me but is being overhyped a bit still based on what a couple other 3yos did recently. Has more question marks than they did