Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[iluvparis]

Playing devils advocate for the Surprise Baby swooning.

Yes he could have won the race last year but the fact his is last two wins in Australia are an Adelaide Cup on the minimum over Top of The Range and Naval Warfare and a Bart Cummings beating Super Nova and Wolfe - none of who would be anywhere near up to this race.

Not only is the form out of his last two wins super ordinary he comes through two shocking lead up races this time in in the form of the Feehan and Turnbull.

He is being overhyped because he is a local and looked the obvious mid year when we thought no decent internationals would come. That's not the case. There is huge question marks as to whether he has enough class to win this race.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

The price is quite clearly the female jockey factor. The once a year female punters will want to have something on J Kah.

To be fair she’s in a rich vein of form. (No I’m not on POA). Tiger Moth for me.

 

[iluvparis]

Playing devils advocate for the Tiger Moth swooning.

Yes he is a NH 3yo which is a good profile lately but is still much more inexperienced than your Cross Counter or Rekindling who had twice as many starts before coming here. Rekindling was battle hardened against quality older horses in the St Leger before coming here and Cross Counter was in a year where the 3yos were dominating Euro racing.

Moths last win while looking good was also in a sh*t G3 race where Buckhurst was going around as second fav giving him like 6kg and we have seen how well he has gone out here.

He is on the first line for me but is being overhyped a bit still based on what a couple other 3yos did recently. Has more question marks than they did

Also more unexposed means he has more potential to improve on his last run - works both ways.

Also not sure how much battle hardness Rekindling got from running around against older hacks in Irish St Leger trials with 6 runners.

Also not too sure how 3yos were 'dominating' Europe in Cross Counters year - the 3yos he was getting rolled by were nothing special at all and won nothing major. They certainly weren't dominating.

 

[Big Bryza]

Are we happy to lay AVD or include in all multiples?

It’s probably the best horse but weighted out of it...

And wasn’t MOR a good thing beat last year, slaughtered by Dettori??

AVD will look the winner at same stage but featherweight TM will storm past it in the last 100m. AVD to finish top 4.

 

[LukeParkerno1]

AVD will look the winner at same stage but featherweight TM will storm past it in the last 100m. AVD to finish top 4.

I know it’s a cop out play but I’ll be having a decent quin with AVD

 

[iluvparis]

Lloyd

on Surprise Baby


"I'm not his fan to be perfectly honest. I thought his run in the Feehan was fair. His run in the Turnbull was fair. It's going to be a training feat to have done what he's done. The horse has had two runs since last year's Melbourne Cup. It's not the sort of preparation I'd give a Melbourne Cup horse having looked at it for 50 or 60 years."

"But on that sort of lead-up, I couldn't possibly have anything on him. Interesting enough, there's a lot of Australian horses that run (in the Cup) for the second and third time, they don't run that well. We get the Europeans coming back, they run alright, but not the Australian horses.

"I'll pass on him. He's an 8/1 or 9/1 chance, I think I'd be standing him out if I was Sportsbet at the moment."

 

[Big Bryza]

"Bad gate just means better price" is what we thought about AVD in the CC. This has "Certainty beat by some nag that covered a kilometer less ground than it in the run" written all over it. Still, It's got my money, but the feeling of Deja Vu is there and strong.

Way better off drawing a campaigner of a barrier in the Melbourne Cup over the Caulfield Cup. As mentioned previously, Mcevoy will just snag TM to the back and get to work from the 1200m running over the top in final 100m.

 

[year of the cat]

Lloyd

on Surprise Baby


"I'm not his fan to be perfectly honest. I thought his run in the Feehan was fair. His run in the Turnbull was fair. It's going to be a training feat to have done what he's done. The horse has had two runs since last year's Melbourne Cup. It's not the sort of preparation I'd give a Melbourne Cup horse having looked at it for 50 or 60 years."

"But on that sort of lead-up, I couldn't possibly have anything on him. Interesting enough, there's a lot of Australian horses that run (in the Cup) for the second and third time, they don't run that well. We get the Europeans coming back, they run alright, but not the Australian horses.

"I'll pass on him. He's an 8/1 or 9/1 chance, I think I'd be standing him out if I was Sportsbet at the moment."

Might back him now. After what Lloyd's done to me over the years....

 

[Chism]

Lloyd

on Surprise Baby


"I'm not his fan to be perfectly honest. I thought his run in the Feehan was fair. His run in the Turnbull was fair. It's going to be a training feat to have done what he's done. The horse has had two runs since last year's Melbourne Cup. It's not the sort of preparation I'd give a Melbourne Cup horse having looked at it for 50 or 60 years."

"But on that sort of lead-up, I couldn't possibly have anything on him. Interesting enough, there's a lot of Australian horses that run (in the Cup) for the second and third time, they don't run that well. We get the Europeans coming back, they run alright, but not the Australian horses.

"I'll pass on him. He's an 8/1 or 9/1 chance, I think I'd be standing him out if I was Sportsbet at the moment."

Hope they put this up on the wall of the stables before the race so SB reads it..............


You can't be giving the horse free ammunition like this.

 

[onthehill24]

Well we have absolutely nailed the two majors so far so lets hope we don't fall at the final hurdle like we did last year and can nail the cup as well. Like the other two races it is a pretty weak field with only a handful of winning chances and they are all well found in betting markets.

Great winning chance - Tiger Moth
Good winning chance - AVD, Sir D (swap around if wet)
Some winning chance - VE, Russian Camelot, Surprise Baby
Place chances - POA, Finche, Ashrun, Steel Prince

These are the only horses I'll be including in exotics - with only the Great/Good winning chances on the win line.

Other point to note is that POA is the biggest unders I can remember a horse being in this race for some time. If you win bet it at that price you need your head read.

i'm chucking in Master of Reality and Ashrun, both will see out the 3200.

I'm chucking in avilius and Miami bound

 

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[Hawksboy72]

Why does Sir D need a wet track when he beat Armoury further on better ground in Ireland and was less than a length off AVD in the Derby on good ground?

Playing devils advocate for the Tiger Moth swooning.

Yes he is a NH 3yo which is a good profile lately but is still much more inexperienced than your Cross Counter or Rekindling who had twice as many starts before coming here. Rekindling was battle hardened against quality older horses in the St Leger before coming here and Cross Counter was in a year where the 3yos were dominating Euro racing.

Moths last win while looking good was also in a sh*t G3 race where Buckhurst was going around as second fav giving him like 6kg and we have seen how well he has gone out here.

He is on the first line for me but is being overhyped a bit still based on what a couple other 3yos did recently. Has more question marks than they did

That race in ireland had 3 pacemakers in it

 

[Hawksboy72]

That race in ireland had 3 pacemakers in it

SD.
3 RUNS ON FIRM TO GOOD FOR 1 SECOND.
7 RUNS ON RAIN AFFECTED FOR 3 WINS & 3 SECONDS.
UK DRY TRACKS ARE DIFFERENT TO OUR DRY TRACKS.

 

[mookieb]

Playing devils advocate for the Surprise Baby swooning.

Yes he could have won the race last year but the fact his is last two wins in Australia are an Adelaide Cup on the minimum over Top of The Range and Naval Warfare and a Bart Cummings beating Super Nova and Wolfe - none of who would be anywhere near up to this race.

Not only is the form out of his last two wins super ordinary he comes through two shocking lead up races this time in in the form of the Feehan and Turnbull.

He is being overhyped because he is a local and looked the obvious mid year when we thought no decent internationals would come. That's not the case. There is huge question marks as to whether he has enough class to win this race.

Cameron O'Brien's been very good with his Melbourne Cup winners of late and he's with Surprise Baby.

 

[iluvparis]

That race in ireland had 3 pacemakers in it

Yes as I have said repeatedly he doesn't need it wet - he needs a decent tempo.

 

[iluvparis]

SD.
3 RUNS ON FIRM TO GOOD FOR 1 SECOND.
7 RUNS ON RAIN AFFECTED FOR 3 WINS & 3 SECONDS.
UK DRY TRACKS ARE DIFFERENT TO OUR DRY TRACKS.

3 runs on firm to good for 1 second and 5th in an English Derby beaten 3/4 of a length by AVD - complete mudder though

 

[iluvparis]

Cameron O'Brien's been very good with his Melbourne Cup winners of late and he's with Surprise Baby.

He needs a win - swing and a miss in both the Cox Plate and the Caulfield Cup

As I've said all week - no surprise Aussie ratings 'experts' have it on top - the race has moved past most of them.

 

[mookieb]

He needs a win - swing and a miss in both the Cox Plate and the Caulfield Cup

As I've said all week - no surprise Aussie ratings 'experts' have it on top - the race has moved past most of them.

He also liked a few roughies Warning, Miami Bound, Stratum Albion - you like any of them? His thoughts are on the Little Birdie Pod.

I normally just take a consensus on a few horses thrown around by experts.

 

[Ah12]

The price is quite clearly the female jockey factor. The once a year female punters will want to have something on J Kah.

Also plenty of Aaron’s out there such as myself that feel obliged to punt on the gelding.

 

[FallingLiefs]

He needs a win - swing and a miss in both the Cox Plate and the Caulfield Cup

As I've said all week - no surprise Aussie ratings 'experts' have it on top - the race has moved past most of them.

Hehehe

 

[2121]

Playing devils advocate for the Surprise Baby swooning.

Yes he could have won the race last year but the fact his is last two wins in Australia are an Adelaide Cup on the minimum over Top of The Range and Naval Warfare and a Bart Cummings beating Super Nova and Wolfe - none of who would be anywhere near up to this race.

Not only is the form out of his last two wins super ordinary he comes through two shocking lead up races this time in in the form of the Feehan and Turnbull.

He is being overhyped because he is a local and looked the obvious mid year when we thought no decent internationals would come. That's not the case. There is huge question marks as to whether he has enough class to win this race.

Those runs might not be the perfect lead up but im sure all that famous Horsham beachwork he has will have him cherry ripe.

 

[Notorious_29]

$7 favourite from barrier 23 with only 4 runs under it's belt.... pass for me. But good luck. If it drifts out past $10 I'd be interested but will need one hell of a ride from McEvoy.

Just remember folks, same people that are over-confident in here were the same ones saying Vow and Declare could not win last year.

 

[Jugada]

Thread probably jumped the shark if we are name dropping old duritz as an analyst to pick apart.

Luckily he has found the winner tho

 

[magpie_marty]

Is Warning an each way chance ?

 

[iluvparis]

He also liked a few roughies Warning, Miami Bound, Stratum Albion - you like any of them? His thoughts are on the Little Birdie Pod.

I normally just take a consensus on a few horses thrown around by experts.

Nope - sounds like he is totally off the mark this year.