Racing Melbourne Cup 2021 - Dedicated Raceday thread

[iluvparis]

Still if he gets on his bike at the 600m works through his gears coasting he’ll have them off the bit at the clock tower

Lol the chance Spanish Mission is fast enough to have any horse off the bit in the straight is zero. Only way he wins is a war of attrition where he picks them all off late like Cross Counter and Marmelo did

 

[iluvparis]

Surely Lloyd serves up the same “race shape” as last year. Otherwise why bring Twilight Payment out here? And if that happens the race won’t be won by a sit/sprint merchant.

Apparently Spanish Mission came home in 33.5 in his battle with Strad, so he may not be a total old school Euro stayer.

Lol sectionals for a 3200m UK stayer. Now I’ve heard it all. We know these types are always too slow to win. A totally irrelevant speed figure doesn’t change that.

 

[plays tall 1]

Lol sectionals for a 3200m UK stayer. Now I’ve heard it all. We know these types are always too slow to win. A totally irrelevant speed figure doesn’t change that.

No doubt most thought Twilight Payment was the wrong type of Euro horse last year, and not sharp enough to win.

 

[iluvparis]

No doubt most thought Twilight Payment was the wrong type of Euro horse last year, and not sharp enough to win.

Yup - but just like POP and V&D there are going to be outliers that you wouldn't want to go looking for in future years anyway

 

[iluvparis]

Sheraz. ‘Better Judges’ lel

 

[plays tall 1]

Sheraz. ‘Better Judges’ lel

Too bad to be true. But obviously not a factor going forward.

 

[iluvparis]

Too bad to be true. But obviously not a factor going forward.

nah entirely on expectations for any half decent international form analyst

 

[plays tall 1]

nah entirely on expectations for any half decent international form analyst

Yeah nah, beaten 12.7 lengths in that putrid affair is not it’s true form. Form around Skazino looks ok. Clearly he was big unders but that run just doesn’t add up.

 

[plays tall 1]

Yup - but just like POP and V&D there are going to be outliers that you wouldn't want to go looking for in future years anyway

If 3 of the last 6 Cups have been won by “outliers” then they aren’t outliers at all.

 

[iluvparis]

If 3 of the last 6 Cups have been won by “outliers” then they aren’t outliers at all.

That’s not how maths works

 

[iluvparis]

Yeah nah, beaten 12.7 lengths in that putrid affair is not it’s true form. Form around Skazino looks ok. Clearly he was big unders but that run just doesn’t add up.

The form was ordinary going in and even worse going out. As advised. Ignore the frenchies mate. It will save you a packet.

 

[FFB1]

TAB have wound Sheraz back out to $26. Think there’s a 1 missing from the front. And that’s just to make the field.

 

[plays tall 1]

TAB have wound Sheraz back out to $26. Think there’s a 1 missing from the front. And that’s just to make the field.

Surely off to the paddock after that shocker.

 

[FallingLiefs]

That’s not how maths works

That is exactly how maths works.

Paris trying to redefine mathmatical definitions now.

 

[Ah12]

Incentivise into $11 for the Cups Double.

Long way to go but got it at $34

Going to make a nervous first Tuesday of November if it wins the CC.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Incentivise into $11 for the Cups Double.

Long way to go but got it at $34

Going to make a nervous first Tuesday of November if it wins the CC.

Bad vibes coming out of Moody camp for them taking him to MC. So be cautious.

 

[HeathySure]

Bad vibes coming out of Moody camp for them taking him to MC. So be cautious.

if they win the CC and dodge it this year its a bad decision imo. Going to be weighted out of everything next year thanks to the stupid rating system

 

[Jugada]

if they win the CC and dodge it this year its a bad decision imo. Going to be weighted out of everything next year thanks to the stupid rating system

Will probably be poorly weighted this year too if he comes out and wins the CC by 3. On today the Cox Plate looks a great option and would be going there first and Then deciding on a Cup or not too

 

[iluvparis]

Will probably be poorly weighted this year too if he comes out and wins the CC by 3. On today the Cox Plate looks a great option and would be going there first and Then deciding on a Cup or not too

Utter madness and would be Hartnell all over again. I mean he has only just held off Young Werther today let’s not forget who wouldn’t even get a start in a Cox Plate.

Cups double is the obvious path this year given both are absolute dogshit and he is thrown in and come back for the Cox Plate next year and hope Zaaki hasnt come back.

 

[FallingLiefs]

if they win the CC and dodge it this year its a bad decision imo. Going to be weighted out of everything next year thanks to the stupid rating system

I will have to find the article but the CP would be more likely then MC was vibe I got, or at least diverting to CP on the way to maybe trying a treble.

I'd personally be planning to do all 3 knowing that CP takes priority over the MC but that's how it is programmed.

 

[FallingLiefs]

if they win the CC and dodge it this year its a bad decision imo. Going to be weighted out of everything next year thanks to the stupid rating system

Quotes


“I’d say it’s not off the agenda but it’s not a part of my thought process at the moment,” Moody said of the Cox Plate, in which he is a 15 chance.

“The Caulfield Cup is front and centre and he will run in that by hook or by crook. Does he then then back up in the Cox Plate? It’s a big call but I wouldn’t say no.”

“I know he can run a mile and a half but I don’t know about two miles. I’m just full bore for the Caulfield Cup and whatever happens after that, we will wait and see,” Moody said.

Moody said this morning’s gallop was as much about continuing to familiarise Incentivise with the left-handed Melbourne way of racing “and to have a trip away from home.”

WAS INCENTIVISE GALLOP A COX PLATE SPIN? - RSN927

Melbourne Cup favourite Incentivise remains an outside chance to run in the Cox Plate, according to trainer Peter Moody.

www.rsn.net.au

 

[HeathySure]

Will probably be poorly weighted this year too if he comes out and wins the CC by 3. On today the Cox Plate looks a great option and would be going there first and Then deciding on a Cup or not too

he is already disgustingly weighted without winning the CC, but the ratings system will destroy any chance of him winning any decent handicap for the rest of his career and hes only had a 6 month season. I dont think Carpenter will penalize him a lot even if he wins by lengths, Carpenter is the moron who decided that if you win a CC with a big weight he wont penalize them. (they changed that decision but ultimately he still does the weights)

 

[Jugada]

Utter madness and would be Hartnell all over again. I mean he has only just held off Young Werther today let’s not forget who wouldn’t even get a start in a Cox Plate.

Cups double is the obvious path this year given both are absolute dogshit and he is thrown in and come back for the Cox Plate next year and hope Zaaki hasnt come back.

He just flogged VE and the Dragon too. Would only be one horse to beat in the Cox Plate where is racing style will be a big plus.

Going all 3 is the obvious answer

 

[iluvparis]

He just flogged VE and the Dragon too. Would only be one horse to beat in the Cox Plate where is racing style will be a big plus.

Going all 3 is the obvious answer

Jug please. YW and Chapada also flogged those horses yesterday. They would legit be 100/1 in a Cox Plate and you know that. Be a better form analyst.

Who was the last horse to run in all 3? I give Moody none of having him right for Flemington if he runs at both Caulfield and the Valley

Yes there is only one horse to beat but that’s what they thought with Hartnell and it completely backfired and they threw away a Caulfield Cup. It’s a pointless argument to make if that one horse is a 1.50 shot

The difference is there is legitimately nothing to beat in the Melbourne Cup. It is the obvious path but not shocked if Moods bottles it given his horrific Cups record

 

[Hamingja]

With the owners I doubt the call is even in Moodys hands.