Melbourne: what do we make of them

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Greggy said:
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You the guy that posted this on Twitter? Seen it there, and on the Richmond board, and in this thread, and on the umpires board...

Doesn't feel like this one is getting much traction yet, but keep going. It's really damning evidence and I'm sure something will come of it if you keep posting it everywhere. Maybe try the other club boards next?
 
Toump Ass said:
You the guy that posted this on Twitter? Seen it there, and on the Richmond board, and in this thread, and on the umpires board...

Doesn't feel like this one is getting much traction yet, but keep going. It's really damning evidence and I'm sure something will come of it if you keep posting it everywhere. Maybe try the other club boards next?
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Depends what case you're trying to make but watching the sequence appears to show a high contact block ( Mansell is low because he's changing direction and tracking a player, we give players free kicks for high contact when they bend their knees all day)

So there's a case for a free for high contact

Then Mansell grabs Pickett around the neck and brings him down

So there's a case for a reversal

Then picket proceeds to hold Mansell down by the kneck and bring his knee onto his neck region..

So there's a case for a reversal-reversal

To say there's no case to answer and it's a clear free to Pickett is a little bit strange.

Honestly I'm surprised that the AFL gave no explanation or fines for this whole segment including the ensuing melee to either side
 

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I still have Dogs, Port, Tigers ahead of us but we are building nicely.

Due to drop one at some stage which is fine as long as it doesn't turn into a rut.

Still think we're 1 top mid short but improvements in defence, wing and half back run and general ball movement and pressure is good.
 
Wacko23Jacko said:
Honestly I'm surprised that the AFL gave no explanation or fines for this whole segment including the ensuing melee to either side
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I'm not because there's absolutely nothing in it.
 
It appears Melbourne are now a decent side. Unfortunately, it means we probably can't keep reminding Melbourne supporters about the 2018 PF loss to WC whenever they get ideas above their station. They appear well-placed to exorcise the memory of that debacle by going just as far in 2021, and who knows what happens from there. Some things that should not have been forgotten were lost. History became legend. Legend became myth.

If it has to be that way, if it's truly come to this, let's at least use the 2018 PF humiliation as the jumping off point for looking at how they've turned it around since then in terms of personnel. Consider it one final ardent embrace of that magnificent battering.

Melbourne spent two years in limbo in 2019-20 but things appear to have clicked in 2021.

Look at the ins and outs from that 2018 PF to the team that beat Richmond on the weekend. I imagine that was probably 22 of Melbourne's best 25? I guess that's a matter of debate among Melbourne fans.

GONE:
Oscar McDonald
Sam Frost
Mitch Hannan
Jordan Lewis
Joel Smith
Dom Tyson

STILL ON THE LIST BUT DIDN'T PLAY SATURDAY
Aaron Vandenberg (probably cooked)
Sam Weideman (will get more chances)
James Harmes (borderline best 22)
Neville Jetta (probably cooked)

IN:
Jayden Hunt (drafted end 2014 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Jake Lever (recruited end 2017 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Bayley Fritsch (drafted end 2017 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Steven May (recruited end 2018, traded for pick 6)
James Jordon (drafted end 2018 at #33)
Adam Tomlinson (arrived end 2019 as UFA)
Ed Langdon (arrived end 2019, effectively for a mid second-rounder)
Luke Jackson (drafted end 2019 at #3)
Kysaiah Pickett (drafted end 2019 at #12)
Trent Rivers (drafted end 2019 at #32)

There are a few key takeaways from that.

First, look at the average players they've managed to squeeze out. In some respects, they did well to get to a PF with some of those guys in the team. How many of them would have been picked by the Richmond or even the WC premiership sides? They had a weak, one-paced underbelly. And it's been upgraded.

Second, the backline has been completely overhauled. Even in 2018, they were suspect in the key defensive posts. They'd recruited Lever already but he did his knee midway through 2018. They paid through the nose to get him, coughing up two first-rounders. But if you look at who they missed out on as a result, that's turned out pretty well. Look at the guys drafted in the handful of spots at/after those picks and I don't think there's too much that hurts them. Zac Bailey is probably the pick of the group drafted 10-20 in 2017 they left on the table. And it's maybe too early to judge 2018 but no one from the 19-29 group jumps out as a gun they missed out on drafting. Meanwhile, Lever is 25 and in AA form. They paid a hgh price for him, which is inherently risky, but it looks to have paid off at this stage. Any blow is further softened by the fact they managed to snaffle Spargo (best 25), Fritsch (clear best 22) and Petty (unknown/developing) in the second round after trading their 2017 first-rounder. Coughing up early picks doesn't hurt as much if you do OK later in the draft.

The price paid for May is more complicated. If you frame it as giving up Hogan for May, then it's great. But they had pick 6 from the Hogan deal, which they then sent to the Suns for May. In doing so, they gave up the chance to draft Ben King, Bailey Smith or Zak Butters. Was it worth it? May is 29 and has managed 30 games for the Demons so far. The kids they left on the table by trading that pick to the Suns have plenty of time to exceed anything May might do at the Demons. That said, May was a player they needed and he's been very good this year and for a fair chunk of 2020.

And then there's the bonus of getting Tomlinson for nothing. He looked lost on a wing but a return to defence has made a huge difference, ultimately freeing up Lever to intercept. It's night and day from the back six that got thumped in the 2018 PF.

Third, that 2019 off-season makes all the difference. Tomlinson for nothing. Langdon effectively for a mid second-rounder and then bang bang bang with Jackson, Pickett and Rivers in the draft. In one off-season they added five players who are best 22 some 18 months later. That's the kind of off-season that takes a team from also-rans to contenders.

And that brings me to my fourth, more general point. For all the griping and bellyaching about draft picks being "overrated" because it's a "lottery", there is no substitute for nailing a cluster of early picks in a single draft or in consecutive drafts. Don't get me wrong, drafting on its own probably isn't enough - and Melbourne have certainly complemented their draft picks by trading for mature top-ups. But I maintain the single most reliable predictor of future success is nailing clusters of early picks. And to do that, you need to give yourself enough shots to get enough talent while allowing for a few misses.

Melbourne have done it a couple of times. From 2013-15, they drafted Salem (#9), Petracca (#2), Brayshaw (#3), Oliver (#4) and Weideman (#9). They also managed to add depth players in Hunt and Neal-Bullen in those drafts. The jury is still out on Weideman but that's why you need extra picks. You need to have more picks than you'll have bullseyes. If you've got five top 10 picks in three years and you nail four, that's a very handy place to start. And then they've gone bang bang bang in 2019 with Jackson, Pickett and Rivers, who all look like 200-gamers. Like I said, there's no substitute for nailing clusters of early picks, either in a single draft or spread across consecutive years. Sure, you can top up by trading or poaching FAs but if you don't stick the draft picks when you get a good look, it's a long way to the top. To my eye, Melbourne got it right in 2013-15 and then got it right again in 2019, while managing to bring in some useful readymades along the way, even if they paid their fair whack to get the likes of Lever and May. That's ultimately what has turned them into contenders after looking pretty rudderless after the ignominy of the 2018 PF.
 
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Sweet Jesus said:
IN:
Jayden Hunt (drafted end 2014 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Jake Lever (recruited end 2017 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Bayley Fritsch (drafted end 2017 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Steven May (recruited end 2018, traded for pick 6)
James Jordon (drafted end 2018 at #33)
Adam Tomlinson (arrived end 2019 as UFA)
Ed Langdon (arrived end 2019, effectively for a mid second-rounder)
Luke Jackson (drafted end 2019 at #3)
Kysaiah Pickett (drafted end 2019 at #12)
Trent Rivers (drafted end 2019 at #32)
Click to expand...

Sweet Jesus said:
Melbourne have done it a couple of times. From 2013-15, they drafted Salem (#9), Petracca (#2), Brayshaw (#3), Oliver (#4) and Weideman (#9). They also managed to add depth players in Hunt and Neal-Bullen in those drafts
Click to expand...

Melbourne have pretty much aced this entire period.

Unlike Carlton they've brought in the right players at trade. Those 4 players you mentioned are top 50 players. Two at least in the top 10.
 
Not enough people are talking about the tactics changes they have made that are just working insanely well. The Jackson/Gawn duo is essentially unmatched around the competition and is giving them something no other team has at present with Gawn being able to drift off the play to plug a hole down back while they push a forward up to take the ruck. No other team can do this really except for them.

I have them as premiership favorites at this stage. I cant see a team overcoming them come finals time when the pressure is on. Gawn will clean it up when the contested footy becomes the key
 

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Sweet Jesus said:
It appears Melbourne are now a decent side. Unfortunately, it means we probably can't keep reminding Melbourne supporters about the 2018 PF loss to WC whenever they get ideas above their station. They appear well-placed to exorcise the memory of that debacle by going just as far in 2021, and who knows what happens from there. Some things that should not have been forgotten were lost. History became legend. Legend became myth.

If it has to be that way, if it's truly come to this, let's at least use the 2018 PF humiliation as the jumping off point for looking at how they've turned it around since then in terms of personnel. Consider it one final ardent embrace of that magnificent battering.

Melbourne spent two years in limbo in 2019-20 but things appear to have clicked in 2021.

Look at the ins and outs from that 2018 PF to the team that beat Richmond on the weekend. I imagine that was probably 22 of Melbourne's best 25? I guess that's a matter of debate among Melbourne fans.

GONE:
Oscar McDonald
Sam Frost
Mitch Hannan
Jordan Lewis
Joel Smith
Dom Tyson

STILL ON THE LIST BUT DIDN'T PLAY SATURDAY
Aaron Vandenberg (probably cooked)
Sam Weideman (will get more chances)
James Harmes (borderline best 22)
Neville Jetta (probably cooked)

IN:
Jayden Hunt (drafted end 2014 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Jake Lever (recruited end 2017 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Bayley Fritsch (drafted end 2017 but didn't play 2018 PF)
Steven May (recruited end 2018, traded for pick 6)
James Jordon (drafted end 2018 at #33)
Adam Tomlinson (arrived end 2019 as UFA)
Ed Langdon (arrived end 2019, effectively for a mid second-rounder)
Luke Jackson (drafted end 2019 at #3)
Kysaiah Pickett (drafted end 2019 at #12)
Trent Rivers (drafted end 2019 at #32)

There are a few key takeaways from that.

First, look at the average players they've managed to squeeze out. In some respects, they did well to get to a PF with some of those guys in the team. How many of them would have been picked by the Richmond or even the WC premiership sides? They had a weak, one-paced underbelly. And it's been upgraded.

Second, the backline has been completely overhauled. Even in 2018, they were suspect in the key defensive posts. They'd recruited Lever already but he did his knee midway through 2018. They paid through the nose to get him, coughing up two first-rounders. But if you look at who they missed out on as a result, that's turned out pretty well. Look at the guys drafted in the handful of spots at/after those picks and I don't think there's too much that hurts them. Zac Bailey is probably the pick of the group drafted 10-20 in 2017 they left on the table. And it's maybe too early to judge 2018 but no one from the 19-29 group jumps out as a gun they missed out on drafting. Meanwhile, Lever is 25 and in AA form. They paid a hgh price for him, which is inherently risky, but it looks to have paid off at this stage. Any blow is further softened by the fact they managed to snaffle Spargo (best 25), Fritsch (clear best 22) and Petty (unknown/developing) in the second round after trading their 2017 first-rounder. Coughing up early picks doesn't hurt as much if you do OK later in the draft.

The price paid for May is more complicated. If you frame it as giving up Hogan for May, then it's great. But they had pick 6 from the Hogan deal, which they then sent to the Suns for May. In doing so, they gave up the chance to draft Ben King, Bailey Smith or Zak Butters. Was it worth it? May is 29 and has managed 30 games for the Demons so far. The kids they left on the table by trading that pick to the Suns have plenty of time to exceed anything May might do at the Demons. That said, May was a player they needed and he's been very good this year and for a fair chunk of 2020.

And then there's the bonus of getting Tomlinson for nothing. He looked lost on a wing but a return to defence has made a huge difference, ultimately freeing up Lever to intercept. It's night and day from the back six that got thumped in the 2018 PF.

Third, that 2019 off-season makes all the difference. Tomlinson for nothing. Langdon effectively for a mid second-rounder and then bang bang bang with Jackson, Pickett and Rivers in the draft. In one off-season they added five players who are best 22 some 18 months later. That's the kind of off-season that takes a team from also-rans to contenders.

And that brings me to my fourth, more general point. For all the griping and bellyaching about draft picks being "overrated" because it's a "lottery", there is no substitute for nailing a cluster of early picks in a single draft or in consecutive drafts. Don't get me wrong, drafting on its own probably isn't enough - and Melbourne have certainly complemented their draft picks by trading for mature top-ups. But I maintain the single most reliable predictor of future success is nailing clusters of early picks. And to do that, you need to give yourself enough shots to get enough talent while allowing for a few misses.

Melbourne have done it a couple of times. From 2013-15, they drafted Salem (#9), Petracca (#2), Brayshaw (#3), Oliver (#4) and Weideman (#9). They also managed to add depth players in Hunt and Neal-Bullen in those drafts. The jury is still out on Weideman but that's why you need extra picks. You need to have more picks than you'll have bullseyes. If you've got five top 10 picks in three years and you nail four, that's a very handy place to start. And then they've gone bang bang bang in 2019 with Jackson, Pickett and Rivers, who all look like 200-gamers. Like I said, there's no substitute for nailing clusters of early picks, either in a single draft or spread across consecutive years. Sure, you can top up by trading or poaching FAs but if you don't stick the draft picks when you get a good look, it's a long way to the top. To my eye, Melbourne got it right in 2013-15 and then got it right again in 2019, while managing to bring in some useful readymades along the way, even if they paid their fair whack to get the likes of Lever and May. That's ultimately what has turned them into contenders after looking pretty rudderless after the ignominy of the 2018 PF.
Click to expand...
We would have taken Butters with the May pick. Would have been a gun for us well after May retires, definitely, but May is definitely a huge part of how we’ve gotten to where we are now from that 2018 prelim. Our current backline is greater than the sums of its parts etc I think, they all make each other better players.
 
Also May is looking pretty durable. Value of that one will have a lot to do with how many years we get out of him at his best. Fingers crossed.
 
Gysberts2Bate said:
We would have taken Butters with the May pick. Would have been a gun for us well after May retires, definitely, but May is definitely a huge part of how we’ve gotten to where we are now from that 2018 prelim. Our current backline is greater than the sums of its parts etc I think, they all make each other better players.
Click to expand...
You definitely made the right call on May. Butters wouldn't have suited you at all :D
 
GoEaglesGoSGIO said:
Not enough people are talking about the tactics changes they have made that are just working insanely well. The Jackson/Gawn duo is essentially unmatched around the competition and is giving them something no other team has at present with Gawn being able to drift off the play to plug a hole down back while they push a forward up to take the ruck. No other team can do this really except for them.

I have them as premiership favorites at this stage. I cant see a team overcoming them come finals time when the pressure is on. Gawn will clean it up when the contested footy becomes the key
Click to expand...

Posts like this fill me with great excitement and extreme dread all at once. I'm sure the Germans have a word for that.
 
Sweet Jesus said:
...
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At the time Brayshaw, Harmes, Oliver, Petracca only had between 50 and 60 games each under their belts, Weed was playing game number 20. That's not a lot of experience for some of your best players.
 
I'm another Dees fan who's cautiously excited. For years we never had weapons and now we have them everywhere. Having said that, I think the Bulldogs and Port both look a scarier prospect to me (and you can't deny the tigers are the September specialists). But it's a long season - so I hope we can continue to develop (and keep winning!)

Wondering what people make of the stat that has been talked about the last few weeks re how often opposition teams score when they go inside their forward 50 against the Demons - how important is this?

I know all the stats nerds look for different things that separate the teams but I haven't noticed it talked about in previous years.

Heading into Anzac Eve’s clash with Richmond, the big question was whether Melbourne had inflated their numbers against lower-quality opposition. But they went in having allowed scores 31 per cent of the time, and came out having allowed scores 31 per cent of the time - they kept their form going.

For context, if Melbourne keeps that rate going, it wouldn’t just be the best ever recorded by Champion Data but the best ever recorded by an absolutely enormous margin.

No other team is below 40 per cent in this stat this year.
Click to expand...
www.foxsports.com.au

Dee-fence wins flags: The two-year turnaround inspiring Melbourne’s run at glory

Dee-fence wins flags: The two-year turnaround inspiring Melbourne’s run at glory
www.foxsports.com.au www.foxsports.com.au
 
Gysberts2Bate said:
We would have taken Butters with the May pick. Would have been a gun for us well after May retires, definitely, but May is definitely a huge part of how we’ve gotten to where we are now from that 2018 prelim. Our current backline is greater than the sums of its parts etc I think, they all make each other better players.
Click to expand...
RobbieGray17 said:
You definitely made the right call on May. Butters wouldn't have suited you at all :D
Click to expand...
In hindsight, I can't believe it's not Butters.
 

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Melbourne: what do we make of them

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