News Ned Guy List Manager to leave after MD

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76woodenspooners said:
In a parallel universe Collingwood passed on him due to mental health issues, so he went to Richmond instead, found his mojo, won another couple of Premierships ...

... and a bunch of Collingwood supporters on the footy forums are spewing forth green bile on how stupid Collingwood was to pass on a Premiership player, club B&F ...

... and are calling for Ned Guy / Nathan Buckley / Ed to be summarily drawn and quartered over it.
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Interesting logic man! We can't judge what happened because of what might have happened...if what happened didn't happen. It's trippy but you're correctly noting that in a parallel universe poor decisions and outcomes could in theory be good decisions and outcomes. Soooooo.....I probably shouldn't have got the sack for starting a food fight and pissing in the punch at the office Christmas party that time because in a parallel universe everyone might've found it hilarious. My Boss gives me a raise instead.
Perhaps Hitler knew what he was doing when he invaded Russia. He was going for the inter-dimensional, hang a left through the worm hole victory on parallel universe no.7 where shit turns to gold and diamonds.

This is a very liberating way of thinking for all our decision makers! It will free them up to really start thinking outside the box.
 
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Kappa said:
I wouldn't sack him, but he's on notice. He needs some wins otherwise there are many others who can take his role.
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I'm not sure what constraints he works within, although several middle and maybe low ranking players who are "overpaid" appears to be one of them. I doubt that he much power to push players off the list.

You would think that the club told him to get the grundy deal done and the result can't be judged too critically because we dont know how much he got.

If he manages to negotiate contracts with de goey and mihocek, I'd tend to give him a pass. The decision to move treloar along would come from walsh and buckley if he does move. If he does, the club could bring in someone. Once again, I dont see him having anywhere near the power of that Dodoro at essendon.

Talking about power, I tend to put a lot of this overpayment of lower ranking players down to Derek Hine who had the job before Oct 2017. I know we are coming to the end of the 3rd year after Derek, so that argument is getting a little thin, but i dont think the deals that Guy is making now are the ones that are causing the salary cap pressure. It's the ones done by derek.

It seems that the club and him, presumably are being pretty tough with de goey and treloar...

what do you want him to do now?
 

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Scritchyscroony said:
Interesting logic man! We can't judge what happened because of what might have happened...if what happened didn't happen. It's trippy but you're correctly noting that in a parallel universe poor decisions and outcomes could in theory be good decisions and outcomes.
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Um, no, not what I’m suggesting.

Soooooo.....I probably shouldn't have got the sack for starting a food fight and pissing in the punch at the office Christmas party that time because in a parallel universe everyone might've found it hilarious. My Boss gives me a raise instead.
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Bad example. Peeing into the Christmas punch was always going to be a bad decision. No benefit of hindsight needed for that one.

Perhaps Hitler knew what he was doing when he invaded Russia. He was going for the inter-dimensional, hang a left through the worm hole victory on parallel universe no.7 where sh*t turns to gold and diamonds.
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If Hitler hadn’t been the megalomaniac who invaded Russia, he wouldn’t have been the megalomaniac who annexed Austria, invaded the Sudetenland, invaded Poland, etc, etc. After the Brits escaped Dunkirk, as long as Hitler stayed alive, the Germans were always going to lose WW2, it was merely a matter of when.

This is a very liberating way of thinking for all our decision makers! It will free them up to really start thinking outside the box.
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Decision makers often think this way about big decisions.

For example:

(1a) If we Recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to be a superstar for us, what happens next?

(1b) If we Recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to become a prescription drug addict who hates the game, what happens next?

(2a) If we let Richmond (or some other team) recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to be a superstar, what happens next?

(2b) If we let Richmond (or some other team) recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to become a prescription drug addict who hates the game, what happens next?

We have control over (1) or (2).

We don’t have any control over (a) or (b) beyond guessing their probability.

We make a decision (1) or (2) based on the probability of (a) or (b). And we acknowledge that (a) / (b) have dependencies on (1) / (2).

We make our decision, then we cross our fingers and roll the dice ...

... and this time we lost.
 
76woodenspooners said:
In a parallel universe Collingwood passed on him due to mental health issues, so he went to Richmond instead, found his mojo, won another couple of Premierships ...

... and a bunch of Collingwood supporters on the footy forums are spewing forth green bile on how stupid Collingwood was to pass on a Premiership player, club B&F ...

... and are calling for Ned Guy / Nathan Buckley / Ed to be summarily drawn and quartered over it.
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I think the latest theory is that there is an infinite amount of universes and one of them has collingwood winning every premiership since the start of the VFL.
 
76woodenspooners said:
Um, no, not what I’m suggesting.



Bad example. Peeing into the Christmas punch was always going to be a bad decision. No benefit of hindsight needed for that one.



If Hitler hadn’t been the megalomaniac who invaded Russia, he wouldn’t have been the megalomaniac who annexed Austria, invaded the Sudetenland, invaded Poland, etc, etc. After the Brits escaped Dunkirk, as long as Hitler stayed alive, the Germans were always going to lose WW2, it was merely a matter of when.



Decision makers often think this way about big decisions.

For example:

(1a) If we Recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to be a superstar for us, what happens next?

(1b) If we Recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to become a prescription drug addict who hates the game, what happens next?

(2a) If we let Richmond (or some other team) recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to be a superstar, what happens next?

(2b) If we let Richmond (or some other team) recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to become a prescription drug addict who hates the game, what happens next?

We have control over (1) or (2).

We don’t have any control over (a) or (b) beyond guessing their probability.

We make a decision (1) or (2) based on the probability of (a) or (b). And we acknowledge that (a) / (b) have dependencies on (1) / (2).

We make our decision, then we cross our fingers and roll the dice ...

... and this time we lost.
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can't believe you'd double down on that.... not much more I can say

But I will take up your assertion that Hitler was doomed because Britain was still in the war..
76woodenspooners said:
Um, no, not what I’m suggesting.



Bad example. Peeing into the Christmas punch was always going to be a bad decision. No benefit of hindsight needed for that one.



If Hitler hadn’t been the megalomaniac who invaded Russia, he wouldn’t have been the megalomaniac who annexed Austria, invaded the Sudetenland, invaded Poland, etc, etc. After the Brits escaped Dunkirk, as long as Hitler stayed alive, the Germans were always going to lose WW2, it was merely a matter of when.



Decision makers often think this way about big decisions.

For example:

(1a) If we Recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to be a superstar for us, what happens next?

(1b) If we Recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to become a prescription drug addict who hates the game, what happens next?

(2a) If we let Richmond (or some other team) recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to be a superstar, what happens next?

(2b) If we let Richmond (or some other team) recruit Dayne Beams and he turns out to become a prescription drug addict who hates the game, what happens next?

We have control over (1) or (2).

We don’t have any control over (a) or (b) beyond guessing their probability.

We make a decision (1) or (2) based on the probability of (a) or (b). And we acknowledge that (a) / (b) have dependencies on (1) / (2).

We make our decision, then we cross our fingers and roll the dice ...

... and this time we lost.
Click to expand...
Cue Dan Andrews at his next press conference... "Well what if the private security at hotel quarantine had done their job properly and not shagged the guests? There'd be no issue would there!" "It could've happened that way so you can't blame me that it didn't"

Room full of journos blink vacantly before nodding...

Me to my lecturer... "have you considered that in a parallel universe my answer could actually be correct?"
 
Scritchyscroony said:
Cue Dan Andrews at his next press conference... "Well what if the private security at hotel quarantine had done their job properly and not shagged the guests? There'd be no issue would there!" "It could've happened that way so you can't blame me that it didn't"
Click to expand...

The difference is about having control over the outcome ...

You pick your lottery numbers, you don’t win, can’t be too hard on yourself because (1) can’t predict the outcome beyond understanding its probability, and (2)
you have no control over what numbers drop, and (3) you carry no responsibility for which numbers drop.

By contrast the Vic government and COVID, whilst they may not have been able to predict the consequences of hiring a private security firm, they certainly did have control over how they did their job (Eg: oversight) and its efficacy (Eg: risk management).

Back to Dayne Beams and Collingwood, yes of course Collingwood did have control over the outcome (a point that many folks seem to have missed, maybe Collingwood could have supported Dayne better? Or Collingwood made different decisions to help Dayne get back to his best?, etc, etc, we’ll probably never know) ... but this is a thread about Ned Guy the list manager.

Me to my lecturer... "have you considered that in a parallel universe my answer could actually be correct?"
Click to expand...

If you’re referring to a question that has probabilistic, non-deterministic, or yet-to-be determined outcomes, then yeah, you might have a point, but even if that’s the case, the correct answer will contain probabilities, caveats, etc.
 
76woodenspooners said:
Let’s look at the facts ...

2017:

Got in Sam Murray and exchanged picks. We never really got to see what Sam Murray could do beyond idiocy.
We delisted Keeffe who ended up being picked up for nothing by GWS ... nobody bemoanEd that.

2018:

Disastrous Beams’ trade ... but we don’t know how much of Ned Guy’s brainchild that was.
Roughead ... has been alright?
Lost Fasolo to Carlton in Free Agency ... don’t see too many complaints about that one.

2019

Darcy Cameron ... has been alright?
Lost Aish to Freo


In amongst all that we’ve (so far) been able to hang onto big name players like Grundy, Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Moore, DeGoey, Treloar, Howe. The list Has been pretty stable.
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He’s also renegotiated a lot of contracts apparently which I assume redressed the legacy salary cap issues if in fact they ever existed.
 
76woodenspooners said:
Nobody but nobody was suggesting we’d overpaid Grundy when the deal was done.
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Exactly, the only angst being expressed was on the length of the contract.
 
Antz said:
Same with me. I saw a 10 minute interview on Footy Classified with him just after it was announced he signed with us and alarm bells started going off. He definitely looked quite unwell. I remember telling my friend at the time that I was worried about his mental health.
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Yet he hit the season running, averaging 25 disposals and 5 clearances.... then he got injured and it all went to shit.
 
workhorse said:
Pretty much.

Good clubs take risks in the pursuit of success. It was the right call for us to take a punt on Dayne Beams coming off a season where we had just lost the GF by 5 points. Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong et al have all taken risks on players recently, some have worked, and some haven't. Unfortunately for us this one didn't work. The major concern was that we overpaid. It was well and good to bring Beamsy back, but at that cost.....
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Exactly. Look at some of Richmonds recruits like Yarran, Cuz, Krakouer, yet they’re being held up as the model we should follow.
 
jackcass said:
Yet he hit the season running, averaging 25 disposals and 5 clearances.... then he got injured and it all went to sh*t.
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Watch the interview, and you'll know what I mean.
 
workhorse said:
Pretty much.

Good clubs take risks in the pursuit of success. It was the right call for us to take a punt on Dayne Beams coming off a season where we had just lost the GF by 5 points. Richmond, Hawthorn, Geelong et al have all taken risks on players recently, some have worked, and some haven't. Unfortunately for us this one didn't work. The major concern was that we overpaid. It was well and good to bring Beamsy back, but at that cost.....
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Bears paid pick 6, 19, & 55 for Neale and pick 30, and they’re paying him somewhere in the order of $900k-$1m a year to attract him to move. What do you think a player who actually finished top 10 in the Brownlow and top 5 in the coaches award should therefore be worth?
 

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Markfs said:
I'm not sure what constraints he works within, although several middle and maybe low ranking players who are "overpaid" appears to be one of them. I doubt that he much power to push players off the list.

You would think that the club told him to get the grundy deal done and the result can't be judged too critically because we dont know how much he got.

If he manages to negotiate contracts with de goey and mihocek, I'd tend to give him a pass. The decision to move treloar along would come from walsh and buckley if he does move. If he does, the club could bring in someone. Once again, I dont see him having anywhere near the power of that Dodoro at essendon.

Talking about power, I tend to put a lot of this overpayment of lower ranking players down to Derek Hine who had the job before Oct 2017. I know we are coming to the end of the 3rd year after Derek, so that argument is getting a little thin, but i dont think the deals that Guy is making now are the ones that are causing the salary cap pressure. It's the ones done by derek.

It seems that the club and him, presumably are being pretty tough with de goey and treloar...

what do you want him to do now?
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exactly

none of us really know what multitude of conversations are going on. One thing I'll observe regarding the Adam Treloar saga is that we're only hearing one side of the story from the horses mouth. I would suggest it's speculation what Collingwood are doing.

On Ned, given he used to be a player manager, he knows their angle. He knows what the position and approach of each of the 3 parties involved (2 clubs and 1 player manager) will be. Listening to SOS on SEN talking through getting Adam Saad, there are many elements to that discussion and it's more simplistic given it's basically a player moving across town. AT has the private life complexity as well as the football output and where all 3 will rate him in their equations. There is a long way to go here.

On the wider contract status, and I'm only going by the table on this post that many come out of contract at the end of 2021 and 2022, so all may not be doom, gloom and piss poor management
 
Antz said:
Watch the interview, and you'll know what I mean.
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I didn’t want him but some of the discussion about him is just rubbish. Who knows what his circumstances were on the day of that interview. What he delivered across 9 of 11 games in 2019 says way more.
 
jackcass said:
Bears paid pick 6, 19, & 55 for Neale and pick 30, and they’re paying him somewhere in the order of $900k-$1m a year to attract him to move. What do you think a player who actually finished top 10 in the Brownlow and top 5 in the coaches award should therefore be worth?
Click to expand...
I think we are on similar wave-lengths here, but just on Neale vs Beams, Neale is three years younger and had a clear upward career trajectory. Beams, at the time, was 28 coming up on 29, with some injury history, suspect mental health and probably starting to come over the hill in terms of actual career performance.

I'm not saying we got held over a barrel, just that we overpaid. Teams overpay all the time to get players across, no doubt. Unfortunately for us, despite his credentials, Dayne clearly had some pretty serious mental demons, the full capacity of which the club obviously didn't know or understand, or chose to ignore (I have no idea). Personally, at the time I thought if we got back a 2nd and 3rd as opposed to two 3rds the trad would've started to look pretty fair.

It's done now, anyway, we can dissect the trade til the cows come home but in the end it just hasn't worked for us. Move on and lets get better in other ways.
 
76woodenspooners said:
The difference is about having control over the outcome ...

You pick your lottery numbers, you don’t win, can’t be too hard on yourself because (1) can’t predict the outcome beyond understanding its probability, and (2)
you have no control over what numbers drop, and (3) you carry no responsibility for which numbers drop.

By contrast the Vic government and COVID, whilst they may not have been able to predict the consequences of hiring a private security firm, they certainly did have control over how they did their job (Eg: oversight) and its efficacy (Eg: risk management).

Back to Dayne Beams and Collingwood, yes of course Collingwood did have control over the outcome (a point that many folks seem to have missed, maybe Collingwood could have supported Dayne better? Or Collingwood made different decisions to help Dayne get back to his best?, etc, etc, we’ll probably never know) ... but this is a thread about Ned Guy the list manager.



If you’re referring to a question that has probabilistic, non-deterministic, or yet-to-be determined outcomes, then yeah, you might have a point, but even if that’s the case, the correct answer will contain probabilities, caveats, etc.
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A person in Ned guys sort of role is judged on the results of his decisions. This is completely normal, fair and what is done in practice. He is not judged on whether or not his decisions could have been good ones had realities played out differently. There are always a million excuses, what ifs and mitigations every time anyone stuffs up. He is judged over time on the outcomes of his decisions. This is clearly a cross in his report card... Don't you agree? You get enough of them and it's time we let someone else try their luck in the role. This is the way a good, accountable, results driven organisations is run. Don't you agree?
Not saying we are there yet with him though... Just saying you should call a stuff up a stuff up.

As to how we handled it... I posted in the Beams thread that it looks to me like we handled it really badly if the "don't come back to the club" rumour is accurate. That was a self destructive response for our list, and a damaging response in terms of our management of his mental health. I'm guessing it came down to respecting the player groups wishes which is fair enough... But the outcomes were all negative..
 
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Scritchyscroony said:
A person in Bed guys sort of role is judged on the results of his decisions. This is completely normal, fair and what is done in practice. He is not judged on whether or not his decision could have been good ones had realities played out differently. There are always a million excuses, what ifs and mitigations every time anyone stuffs up. He is judged over time n the outcomes of his decisions. This is clearly a cross in his report card... Don't you agree? You get enough of them and it's time we let someone else try their luck in the role. This is the way good accountable , results driven organisations run. Don't you agree?
Not saying we are there yet with him though... Just saying you should call a stuff up a stuff up.

As to how we handled it... I posted in the Beams thread that it looks to me like we handled it really badly if the "don't come back to the club" rumour is accurate. That was a self destructive response for our list, and a damaging response in terms of our management of his mental health. I'm guessing it came down to respecting the player groups wishes which is fair enough... But the outcomes were all negative..
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Wouldn’t the way it’s presented to Beams be the critical aspect of the apparent players decree that he not be allowed to return. It could be coached as being the best thing for him and his recovery that he remain away from the club. Always a bit difficult to assess if we’re not privy to or getting 1st hand accounts of the discussion
 
jackcass said:
Wouldn’t the way it’s presented to Beams be the critical aspect of the apparent players decree that he not be allowed to return. It could be coached as being the best thing for him and his recovery that he remain away from the club. Always a bit difficult to assess if we’re not privy to or getting 1st hand accounts of the discussion
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I'm just judging it on the visible outcomes. He obviously wanted to keep playing and to be at Collingwood. The club obviously wanted him running around in the midfield. Then he did something very strange offield that had to be dealt with. But despite 18 months to heal and smooth this over he didn't get better and return; or perhaps wasn't allowed to. Its hard to see how it's a good outcome for Beams or that this ending to his career won't be a contributing source of future depression. The inability to build a bridge here and get over it and get on with it is a real shame for both parties... especially given the cost to our list.
 
Scritchyscroony said:
I'm just judging it on the visible outcomes. He obviously wanted to keep playing and to be at Collingwood. The club obviously wanted him running around in the midfield. Then he did something very strange offield that had to be dealt with. But despite 18 months to heal and smooth this over he didn't get better and return; or perhaps wasn't allowed to. Its hard to see how it's a good outcome for Beams or that this ending to his career won't be a contributing source of future depression. The inability to build a bridge here and get over it and get on with it is a real shame for both parties... especially given the cost to our list.
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My recollection is that Beams was at the club and playing until injured in R11, went and had surgery, then had subsequent surgery on a pre-existing injury, but during the 2020 preseason he was back at the club engaged in rehab and talking positively about returning to the team when fit. What we’ll never know is the impact of the injuries, the surgery, and the rehab on Beams, or what happened when he did return during the preseason.
 
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Scritchyscroony said:
A person in Bed guys sort of role is judged on the results of his decisions. This is completely normal, fair and what is done in practice. He is not judged on whether or not his decision could have been good ones had realities played out differently. There are always a million excuses, what ifs and mitigations every time anyone stuffs up. He is judged over time n the outcomes of his decisions. This is clearly a cross in his report card... Don't you agree?
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Who is to blame for Dayne Beams not working out?

Is it the List Manager for picking him?

Is it the Club Doctor for not putting in place a successful mental health treatment plan?

Is it Dayne’s line coach / senior coach for not providing a psychologically safe environment for Dayne?

Is it ..., is it ..., is it ...

There are one of / combination of many reasons why Dayne might not have worked out. Typically the way it works is that senior management (Footy Manager / CEO) identify if the problem could have been avoided, whether there are learnings form it / negligence / etc ... and take appropriate action. And if senior management don’t do that, then it’s them who needs to go ... hence why some folks are calling for Walsh / Ed to be accountable for this and other things that didn’t work out.

You get enough of them and it's time we let someone else try their luck in the role. This is the way good accountable , results driven organisations run. Don't you agree?
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Indeed.

Not saying we are there yet with him though... Just saying you should call a stuff up a stuff up.
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It may be a stuff-up, or it may be a punt that didn’t work out.


For example: Ned Guy might have said “Look, there’s a 80% chance of Dayne quitting under a mental health cloud, and 20% chance that he’ll be a solid contributor”. To which Ned Guy’s bosses may have said “Well, they’re better odds than an 18 year old pick 20ish ... do it!!”

Would you call that a stuff up against Ned Guy?

As to how we handled it... I posted in the Beams thread that it looks to me like we handled it really badly if the "don't come back to the club" rumour is accurate. That was a self destructive response for our list, and a damaging response in terms of our management of his mental health.
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Agree.

I'm guessing it came down to respecting the player groups wishes which is fair enough... But the outcomes were all negative..
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Disagree with that.

Whilst he is employed / contracted by the club, the club have an obligation to provide duty of care. That’s a legal and moral responsibility that transcends any opinions that the player group / player leadership may have.

Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean that he goes to training, or hangs out in the locker-room with his team-mates, or is even allowed on-site ... it just means that he is supported ...

... and whilst we don’t know what level of support the club was / wasn’t providing him with - fair to say that if he needed to drive his car into a tree for his cry for help to be heard ...

... the support he was getting clearly wasn’t very effective.
 
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Antz said:
Watch the interview, and you'll know what I mean.
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Seems reasonable?

Sure, he refers to ongoing mental health issues ...

... but there is nothing there to suggest that they would get in the way of him playing good footy. (GAJ returned to Geelong with ongoing issues with his shoulder, would you have seen that in the same way?)
 
76woodenspooners said:
link?
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I’ve tried looking for it on YouTube and Google and I can’t find it. The interview really exposes his mental health. He wouldn’t stop talking and was tearing up. The panel couldn’t go to a break. It was a really cringe worthy interview. I was really worried about his mental health.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
 
Antz said:
I’ve tried looking for it on YouTube and Google and I can’t find it. The interview really exposes his mental health. He wouldn’t stop talking and was tearing up. The panel couldn’t go to a break. It was a really cringe worthy interview. I was really worried about his mental health.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com
Click to expand...

OK, so not that one? ☝️
 

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News Ned Guy List Manager to leave after MD

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