Next out of Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne and St Kilda to win a flag?

Who wins a flag before the others?

  • Total voters
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St Kilda's team seems decent and Ratten is a good coach. I'd have them in front at the moment.

Essendon's list is in as much trouble as ours, they'd be at the back of the pack with us.

Melbourne and Carlton somewhere in between Ess / North at the back, and St Kilda at the front.

Reality is that in ten years, chances are that none of us have won a flag, unless the AFL pulls a Bulldogs 2016 style umpiring fix.

I wouldn't blame them if they did gift St Kilda a flag that way. Their fans deserve a flag imho.
 
Freomaniac said:
north is a weird one. Anything can happen in 5-7 years time. North have finished bottom 4 this season. Will get at least 5-7 kids in this draft. North will get bottom 6 in 2021 and 2022. Again another 5-7 kids next season and season after.

Thats 15-21 kids recruited in 3 years. Elim finals in 2023 and preliminary final in 2024 then grand finals in 2025-6
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North probably haven't even reached the bottom of the barrel yet, they are legit basically starting from scratch- like say Gold Coast in their first year or two- and that bottoming out is likely to be either next year, or 2022, so there's almost no chance in hell that they go from the bottom of the barrel to GF's within 3-4 years.

For starters they'll have to learn how to win again, so that will delay any rise even further.
 
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It's mind boggling how North are well ahead of Melbourne in the voting here, unless it's all just those taking the piss.

Melbourne won't need much to go right to get right back up there. There's no doubt that they do have the list pieces that are hardest to get in place.

That said, Gawn and May are now 28yo, so the clock is ticking.
 

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Fadge said:
This.

I don't understand why people waste time debating over which team has a better top 5.

It is a team's best 30 or even 35 that dictate how well a team performs.

How often do we see teams perform well all year, only to be let down by their bottom 6 (which might be players between the 20th and 30th players on your list) in a big final?
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Finally you've posted something constructive, and right.
 
I will give my quick, simplistic Wayne Carey style analysis.

I think St Kilda's best this year is clearly better then any team listed. Having knocked off Port Adelaide in Adelaide and Richmond. Their best is evidently very good. My only question is can they get much better. Outside of King and Hunter Clark what players on their list have sizeable room for growth? Happy to stand corrected here.

I think Carlton have the best balanced list of the teams mentioned. Shaping up nicely. Except some perspective is required with Carlton. What none of these posts mentioned is that they ended the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. Its not like they are riding a wave of momentum into next year. Like the Dees they can still be very flakey.

Dees top 4 of Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, May is strongest of the sides mentioned, but our bottom 4 players is still pretty putrid.

Carlton for mine are the closest out of the sides mentioned to a flag. But this could all change very quickly.
 
aussierulesrules said:
That said, Gawn and May are now 28yo, so the clock is ticking.
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So they've only got 5-6 years left ?

I can name numerous ruckman and fullbacks who played until at least 33.

If we can't win a flag in the next 5 years our current list will be a shell of what it is now anyway.

Despite finishing 9th this year, if we're not in our window now we'll never be.
 
Fadge said:
You do realise we've had 3 separate 'windows' since Carlton last contended?
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Meh you were outsider in your latest window, that's a poor strategy. Collingwood should look at building their list for sustained success to have multiple shots at a flag over a 5-6 period; with a stronger side. Instead we see them rebuild on the run and contend for 1-2 years then come back with the pack. It's not as effective.

Funnily enough after taking this route they look to be the only club in the league seriously hamstrung by their cap, who is managing this?

Anyway thread isn't about the Pies.

If Goodwin learns to coach then Melbourne are a top 4 side imo, so they're the closest but need to get it together this off-season.

St Kilda are a top 8 side but lack star power imo.

Carlton are miles off mentally, but the list is building nicely. If we successfully land Saad and Williams and miss the 8 we may as well blow up the joint.

North and Essendon, gah.
 
Alpine Lodger said:
I will give my quick, simplistic Wayne Carey style analysis.

I think St Kilda's best this year is clearly better then any team listed. Having knocked off Port Adelaide in Adelaide and Richmond. Their best is evidently very good. My only question is can they get much better. Outside of King and Hunter Clark what players on their list have sizeable room for growth? Happy to stand corrected here.

I think Carlton have the best balanced list of the teams mentioned. Shaping up nicely. Except some perspective is required with Carlton. What none of these posts mentioned is that they ended the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. Its not like they are riding a wave of momentum into next year. Like the Dees they can still be very flakey.

Dees top 4 of Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, May is strongest of the sides mentioned, but our bottom 4 players is still pretty putrid.

Carlton for mine are the closest out of the sides mentioned to a flag. But this could all change very quickly.
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trying not to be bias, I agree that there are a lot on our list that are probably already near or at their ceiling, however I think the following players can still take another big step up: Clark, King (obviously) Coffield, Howard, Hill (compared to his form this year), Battle and maybe a little bit out of Long. All of those players have shown extremely high potential and are still young enough to develop further, barring Hill, but I think he will get way more of the ball next year if we start actually feeding it to him on the outside.

Could probably throw Marshall in there too, but not even the club seems to know how we are going to use him properly yet so who knows.
 
Alpine Lodger said:
I think St Kilda's best this year is clearly better then any team listed. Having knocked off Port Adelaide in Adelaide and Richmond. Their best is evidently very good. My only question is can they get much better. Outside of King and Hunter Clark what players on their list have sizeable room for growth? Happy to stand corrected here.
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Going into this season, 6 of what became our regular back 7 for the year hadn't played 50 games yet, so right there is almost an entire backline with scope for significant growth.

Secondly, it's quite possible that none of our 5 highest paid for the year finished in the top 9 of our B&F. (If the 5 highest were Hill, Hannebery, Billings, Ross and Gresham, which it's pretty likely they were). Which of course suggests that if they play more to their ability/what you would expect from someone on their pay check, next year and onwards- or they play more games- we'll be a lot better for it.

We also apparently fielded the 3rd-youngest and/or least experienced 22 on average this year, which again suggests significant scope for overall growth and improvement.
 

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chunkylover53 said:
Meh you were outsider in your latest window, that's a poor strategy. Collingwood should look at building their list for sustained success to have multiple shots at a flag over a 5-6 period; with a stronger side. Instead we see them rebuild on the run and contend for 1-2 years then come back with the pack. It's not as effective.

Funnily enough after taking this route they look to be the only club in the league seriously hamstrung by their cap, who is managing this?

Anyway thread isn't about the Pies.
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Agree this thread isn't about Collingwood but you need to be corrected:
Rebuild #1 - Two Grand Final appearances in 02 and 03;
Rebuild #2 - 5 top 4 finishes in 6 years between 2007 and 2012;
Rebuild #3 - Grand Final, Prelim and Semi over '18, '19 and '20 and you might have written us off after our Semi performance but all things being equal we contend for another couple of years with this list.
 
Fadge said:
Agree this thread isn't about Collingwood but you need to be corrected:
Rebuild #1 - Two Grand Final appearances in 02 and 03;
Rebuild #2 - 5 top 4 finishes in 6 years between 2007 and 2012;
Rebuild #3 - Grand Final, Prelim and Semi over '18, '19 and '20 and you might have written us off after our Semi performance but all things being equal we contend for another couple of years with this list.
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Was referring to the latest 'rebuild'. You weren't a contender this year and never looked like it, if you're including 2020 as Collingwood contending, you'll need to include Carltons 2011 at contending, meaning you indeed, have only had one window during our last time in contention.

Your window opened for 2 years (2018/2019) and you were outsiders on both. Basically..


 
chunkylover53 said:
Was referring to the latest 'rebuild'. You weren't a contender this year and never looked like it, if you're including 2020 as Collingwood contending, you'll need to include Carltons 2011 at contending, meaning you indeed, have only had one window during our last time in contention.

Your window opened for 2 years (2018/2019) and you were outsiders on both. Basically..


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What bollocks.

Collingwood were backing up from consecutive top 4 finishes coming into this year and were flag faves for the first few weeks.

Of the top five teams, Collingwood had beaten Geelong, drawn with Richmond, beat West Coast in the Elim Final, and were well in both matches against Brisbane and Port.

2011 Carlton didn't beat any of the top 4 teams.

Strange year with COVID so not sure I'd be writing the likes of West Coast and Collingwood off based on their early finals exits.
 
Fadge said:
What bollocks.

Collingwood were backing up from consecutive top 4 finishes coming into this year and were flag faves for the first few weeks.

Of the top five teams, Collingwood had beaten Geelong, drawn with Richmond, beat West Coast in the Elim Final, and were well in both matches against Brisbane and Port.

2011 Carlton didn't beat any of the top 4 teams.

Strange year with COVID so not sure I'd be writing the likes of West Coast and Collingwood off based on their early finals exits.
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You got embarrassed in a SF, Carlton lost marginally in a SF in 2011. Carlton also finished higher in the H&A and won more games. You can do your mental gymnastics all you want, if your definition of 'contending' is Collingwood this year scraping into the 8 and getting beaten in a SF by 70 points, then Carltons 2011 can be too. Carlton started flag faves in 2012 too - contenders?

Neither team were contenders. Your window has opened and closed in the space of 2 years with a bursting salary cap.

I'm not writing WCE off, just Collingwood as flag chances with this group.

Fadge said:
What do you mean 'outsiders in both?'.

We started faves in the 2018 Grand Final.

Are you saying if you don't enter the finals series as flag faves you are wasting your time?!?
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Of course not. It helps being the best team though. You built a list to have a short window and the list hasn't stacked up to other top clubs.
 
Saw Carey has come out and tipped the bucket on North.

Kinda funny when you think about 30 years from now when North have a 50 year drought and we call it the ‘Carey Curse’, of a clean slate since Wayne met Kellie.
 
Alpine Lodger said:
I will give my quick, simplistic Wayne Carey style analysis.

I think St Kilda's best this year is clearly better then any team listed. Having knocked off Port Adelaide in Adelaide and Richmond. Their best is evidently very good. My only question is can they get much better. Outside of King and Hunter Clark what players on their list have sizeable room for growth? Happy to stand corrected here.

I think Carlton have the best balanced list of the teams mentioned. Shaping up nicely. Except some perspective is required with Carlton. What none of these posts mentioned is that they ended the season losing 4 of their last 5 games. Its not like they are riding a wave of momentum into next year. Like the Dees they can still be very flakey.

Dees top 4 of Petracca, Gawn, Oliver, May is strongest of the sides mentioned, but our bottom 4 players is still pretty putrid.

Carlton for mine are the closest out of the sides mentioned to a flag. But this could all change very quickly.
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I think Max King will be an absolute superstar within in 3-4 years and I think Steele still has a lot of improvement in him as well remember this season was his first full season not playing a run with role
 
harrow90 said:
trying not to be bias, I agree that there are a lot on our list that are probably already near or at their ceiling, however I think the following players can still take another big step up: Clark, King (obviously) Coffield, Howard, Hill (compared to his form this year), Battle and maybe a little bit out of Long. All of those players have shown extremely high potential and are still young enough to develop further, barring Hill, but I think he will get way more of the ball next year if we start actually feeding it to him on the outside.

Could probably throw Marshall in there too, but not even the club seems to know how we are going to use him properly yet so who knows.
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You Forgot Gresham who's only 23. He's still very underrated. I genuinely believe he can become a match winner for us in the next few years. Has kicked bags of 6 and 5 goals, whilst showing he can kick multiple goals regularly. He's pushed into the midfield more over 2019-20 but still feel he'll be best for us when he plays 70-30 Forward-Mid. Was our second best mid behind Steele before getting injured mid season
 
puppy_dog7 said:
You Forgot Gresham who's only 23. He's still very underrated. I genuinely believe he can become a match winner for us in the next few years. Has kicked bags of 6 and 5 goals, whilst showing he can kick multiple goals regularly. He's pushed into the midfield more over 2019-20 but still feel he'll be best for us when he plays 70-30 Forward-Mid. Was our second best mid behind Steele before getting injured mid season
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Yep, had dropped a few kegs and gotten really fit over preseason and looked like he was going to have a midfield breakout year, but then did his knee in R1 and would have missed about 10 weeks (had we not had the covid shutdown), then it took him a whole to get up and running again, and then he did his back and that was that.

Teams really sat on Jones in the latter part of the year (once Jade was out), but if we have both of them in there they won't be able to sit on both.
 

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Next out of Carlton, Essendon, Melbourne, North Melbourne and St Kilda to win a flag?

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