Was calculated back in 2012 and I’m sure it was correct at the time. Will check again later today, it’s not a quick calculation.
Edit: Confirmed that the Bulldogs team is still the only one.
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No premiership side has ever played together again
- Thread starter Rotayjay
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Was calculated back in 2012 and I’m sure it was correct at the time. Will check again later today, it’s not a quick calculation.
Edit: Confirmed that the Bulldogs team is still the only one.
WTF you on about. We are talking about premiership teams playing together again. Jayden Short who missed last years flag after playing 16 games is currently playing really well and unlikely to be dropped.
My error - misread the point of the thread
00Stinger
100 - 7
i thought that would be quite obvious tbh
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Yep, it's a great stat because it illustrates how unintuitive probability can be. It's the same reason your multi bet never quite comes up.
When a result relies on many separate things all coming up, then even if each of those things individually is likely, the combined outcome is often very unlikely, since a single miss anywhere ruins the whole thing.
With 22 players, even if each one is a near-certain 95% chance of being selected next game, the chance of them all being selected is 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95... a total of 22 times, which comes out at only 32%.
If your 22 players average a 90% chance each of being selected for the next game, the chance of them all running out falls to 9.8%.
If they average an 80% chance each -- so still very likely on an individual level -- the chance of the whole team coming up is less than 1%.
When a result relies on many separate things all coming up, then even if each of those things individually is likely, the combined outcome is often very unlikely, since a single miss anywhere ruins the whole thing.
With 22 players, even if each one is a near-certain 95% chance of being selected next game, the chance of them all being selected is 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95 x 0.95... a total of 22 times, which comes out at only 32%.
If your 22 players average a 90% chance each of being selected for the next game, the chance of them all running out falls to 9.8%.
If they average an 80% chance each -- so still very likely on an individual level -- the chance of the whole team coming up is less than 1%.
- Thread starter
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Great to see you back FS!
Quite interesting fact that Ron the Bear posted - at the end of each season, that complete teams of 22 have only ever appeared again once. Statistically it's not amazing, but similar to the Birthday Paradox it sounds impressive.
pendlebury_10
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Much like the 22 women I shagged in one night at Twister nightclub back in 2004. I never saw the same 22 again...
I meant we wont have the 2017 premiership 22 play together this year.
Fabes
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Yes but never ever again in the history of our game? Not once in all the hundreds of thousands of games ever played for over a hundred years? That's the incredible part. Cheers
Fabes
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Yes you did. Grand final day against the Cats in 2007.
Oh right, that does make it more remarkable.
The interesting thing for Richmond is that all 22 are still on the list. No trades, no retirements. 21 of 22 have played again. Only 2 have been dropped and Townsend has come back in and I'd probably still expect him to be in the mix come finals even if he's dropped a bit on the way. Ellis should make his way back in as well. I doubt it will happen but it's still a possibility. I'd expect Richmond to line up in their first final this year with at least 19, maybe 20 and possibly all 22.
We have a large number of players compared to say soccer with 11, or rugby and gaelic games with 15. The greater the number of players the less likely they will stay together as a team
telsor
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Petty sure you're wrong there.
Short & Conca have played every game this year, so the maximum would be 20.
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You have had a dream injury run compared to a lot of recent premiers.
One LTI to a best 22 player and a couple of suspensions and 1-2 week injuries and late outs isn't exactly backs-to-the-wall stuff.
Sorry I meant all but Rioli have played, not 21 out of 22 have played in the same team.
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Not surprising at all. At least one vet, usually more, retire after a flag. Many see it was the perfect opportunity to hang up the boots and way to farewell the game.
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Best way to retire.
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Brisbane 2002 and Hawthorn 2015 went quite close with just two changes from one GF to the next.
There was surprisingly few turnover of players with those 3peat sides.
Brisbane: 27 premiership players from 2001-2003
16 played in all 3 flags: Voss, Black, Akermanis, Lappin, Lynch, Brown, Power, Johnson, Leppitsch, Michael, Hart, Pike, White, Ashcroft, Keating, McRae
2002 changes-
In: Headland, Shattock
Out: Bradshaw, Copeland
2003 changes - (3 newbies)
In: Bradshaw, Copeland, Caracella, Charman, McGrath
Out: Headland, Shattock, Scott, Scott, McDonald
Hawthorn: 29 premiership players from 2013 to 2015
17 played in all 3 flags: Hodge, Mitchell, Burgoyne, Roughead, Rioli, Birchall, Lewis, Gibson, Lake, Smith, Breust, Gunston, Shiels, Stratton, Puopolo, Hale, Hill
2014 changes
In: McEvoy, Suckling, Duryea, Langford, Spangher
Out: Franklin, Guerra, Sewell, Bailey, Simpkin
2015 changes
In: Frawley, Schoenmakers
Out: Langford, Spangher
Collingwood had a premiership team of 23 players in 2010.
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Well, no they didn't actually.
There were only 22 in the team that won the Grand Final and therefore the premiership.
1948 had a similar circumstance when Melbourne won after a replay. I don't remember seeing anyone claim that Melbourne had 21 premiership players that year (20 per team at the time).
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Agreed, the drawn grand final was a true grand final with a Norm Smith, but was also a no-result where no premiership was decided.
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