List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

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Isn't it that Gold Coast think Noble is worth 13 - not 13+23?
Gold Coast absolutely don't think Noble is worth 13.

That's not even how the trade is working. We'd effectively be trading Noble for #23, but as a sweetener to us, as #23 is unders for Noble, they would be trading us #13 for our F1.
 
Leppa has a couple things in his favour here:
1) both Port and Suns want something from us, Port also want something from Suns who want a good return from Port. The deal for Houston is intertwined with others and it's unlikely it gets separated.

2) even though Houston did not nominate a club, we are the only ones who have made a serious play for him. In my view this puts us in a stronger position than if he had nominated. There's been an "open" process and Port did not get better offers than ours. The way Carlton have played it to this point means there's a very good chance we can keep pick 23.
That’s right and according to reports we have enticed him with a better deal.

The back up plan is we take pick 13 to the draft, or even try to upgrade it. Pick 13’s have played 117 games on average, pick 4 comes in at 112. It’s a lottery but we have Dekka! I think we are in a great spot either way.
 
Yeah fair. I still think other clubs would be ringing up the Suns with arguably better offers. It depends on how highly they want Noble.
Suns want a first round pick going to Port though, then they'd like to get F1 for Lukosius. They also want Noble. So we have a strong hand in dealing for pick 13, it only weakens if our deal for Houston falls through.
 
Seems like we might have had the wrong operator at the wrong time. I would hope that Leppa is just playing a straight media bat, and is as enthusiastic on getting Houston as many of us are
Yea we're only in this situation with a shot at Houston without any draft capital this year because Melbourne and then Carlton fumbled. Please don't fumble Leppa.
 

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Yea we're only in this situation with a shot at Houston without any draft capital this year because Melbourne and then Carlton fumbled. Please don't fumble Leppa.
I would be quite shitty if we drop the ball on Bradburying our way into one of the best half backs in the comp
 
Do Carlton have the cap space?

Anyway, I am interested to see if Port are asking too much for Houston, and if sun's not giving us what we want for noble, whether we keep Noble and re-sign Richards. Richards would obviously have to agree and Noble have to be happy to stay.


I think they'd find be able to make it work.
 
Either way I think we are in a good spot.

The other thing to consider is that our later picks (52 & 55) are likely to come in at least 8 or 9 spots once the bids for Ashcroft, Lombard, Kako and Marshall come in and eat up a heap of picks in the 40’s.

Therefore, I would proceed as follows:

With Gold Coast
  • Trade F1 + Noble for Pick 13 + 23.
Ask Port if they would prefer Pick 13 + Richards OR Pick 22 (Sydney) + Pick 23 + Richards – Hopefully the latter.

With Sydney
  • Trade 13 for Pick 19 + Pick 22
With Port
  • Trade Pick 22 + Pick 23 + Richards (who I would value at Pick 40) to Port for Dan Houston.
We are then left with:

  • Pick 19
  • Pick 36
  • Pick 52 (Likely 43)
  • Pick 55 (Likely 45)

Overall Summary: Good balance of investing in the now and the future.

Players In

  • Dan Houston
  • Harry Perryman

Players Out

  • Noble
  • Richards

Draft Hand

  • Pick 19: Shannahan/Whitlocks
  • Pick 36: Tom Gross/Cooper Hynes/ Christian Moraes
  • Pick 52 (Likely 43): ?
  • Pick 55 (Likely 45): ?

We also have the option of packaging up 36 + 52 + 55 or just 52 + 55 to get higher up the order (e.g. for Essendon's pick 31 (they need points for Kako) or Brisbane's Pick 32 (picks for Ashcroft/Marshall)).
 
If the suns want to continue being stingy, should cease trade talks with them. We can't waste our time with them, try trading out future 1 for Sydney's two picks and keep noble. This noble thing needs to be settled today, we either get Houston or we go hunting for other trade targets that haven't been mentioned yet. If I remember correctly Tom Mitchell was a relatively last minute deal . See if there are other players that clubs are happy to move on from .
 
Suns want a first round pick going to Port though, then they'd like to get F1 for Lukosius. They also want Noble. So we have a strong hand in dealing for pick 13, it only weakens if our deal for Houston falls through.
Exactly. I think it's forgotten that Port needs to get a pick back to GC for Lukoscious (which they don't have).
Where will that come from?

At this stage Port needs to find a 1st round pick for them. Ironically, it comes from GC trading it to us. If we dig our heels in for 23 for Noble, then I can't see many alternatives for them.
 
Collingwood list boss Justin Leppitsch says the soaring value of a first-round pick held by Gold Coast is making it “complicated and messy” for the Magpies to bring across Dan Houston.
Leppitsch said a deal with Port Adelaide and the Suns involving Houston, Jack Lukosius and Magpies defender John Noble was up to its 30th variation, as the Power demanded a higher price than the Pies were currently willing to pay.

In his first off-season as list manager, Leppitsch said the Magpies had to strike a “fine balance” between pursuing Houston and prioritising “the future of the footy club”.
Complicating matters further is that the dual All-Australian halfback is yet to nominate a preferred destination, with Carlton and North Melbourne remaining interested.

“We’re hoping to get it done, but it’s not going to be easy. That’s the difficult part, getting everyone happy on the deal. We’ve got all these players involved, who are all contracted, and can stay at their own homes, so I guess everyone is holding the card where they can keep that particular player,” Leppitsch told AFL Trade Radio on Friday.

“I’m not sure … we’re a little bit different, because Dan hasn’t nominated a club, so it’s not like he’s definitely coming to us, whereas John (Noble) has got a destination he wants to go, and Jack Lukosius knows where he wants to go.
“It is getting complicated, and messy at stages, so there is a lot to work through.”

Leppitsch said the Suns’ no. 13 pick, which Port Adelaide wants as part of a trade for Houston, initially looked like an easy get as part of a trade for Noble, but now has multiple suitors.

“At the start, pick 13 was just going to be an easy part of the deal for Nobes, along with other things of course,” he said.

“But now, given the fact it comes a number of other clubs wanting it, Gold Coast probably realises the value it actually has, it unlocks probably more value than what it actually is. Whoever gets a hold of it can do a lot of things with it. Hence why it’s more than just that pick.”


The Power also reportedly want the Suns’ no. 23 pick as part of a Houston deal even if it includes Collingwood forward Joe Richards, which Leppitsch suggested the Pies were not willing to part with if they secured that pick in the Noble deal.
He said they were mindful of being armed with the picks needed to secure father-son prospect Tom McGuane in 2025, which would be done under the league’s stricter rules coming in next season.

“We’d like to (keep a high draft pick), and that’s probably where the arm wrestle comes in,” Leppitsch said.

“Give up all your draft hand for one player, or go a different tact? That’s where it’s going to come down to for us.

“It’s a very fine balance. We’re respecting that, and we know the value of that, but the future of the footy club is most important.”

 

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