List Mgmt. Our Trade/FA, Suburban & Country Town Thread

[memoryofmchale]

Umm…not sure you got my post. But all good.

Had a mate who knows footy (that was there)that reckons Ryan had absolutely no idea when he played last year. That was a reward game if any. Same as Chugg.

Good players, who have long careers, make themselves available in year 2. Is Allan doing that? Is he close?!? What position does he play in AFL to force his way in….fringe at best. Harsh but reality as it stands.

How did I criticise the trades we made?!? Shultz is 10000% a better deal than keeping our amazing first pick this year (who likely won’t have a material impact until 2027).

Pretty comfortable with what I know about footy mate. Happy to debate realities of the current footy world if you want?!? So maybe don’t give me the childish “watch more footy” comment…..

You have to remember that some players aren’t even on lists until they’re 21, 22 … 26. So I’m not that concerned about Allan.

Ryan had played well in the VFL. Chugg’s selection was to see what his raw athleticism could do before they cut him. Although he was a Cat A rookie, he was more of a Cat B-style in my books given his athletics background. The TSL season in 2020 also helped given it was still operating when Victorian football was shut down.

You weren’t that clear about Schultz but yes, the later the pick, the better off it is traded. I have no idea who we would have chosen in lieu of Frampton but we got good value from trading a throwaway pick.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

by round 7 2024, less than 1/3rd of the H&A season complete ....

2023 AFL Draft picks (beyond your threshold point of #13):

• pick 13 Koltyn Tholstrup already debuted for Melb (1 game to-date)
• pick 14 Jake Rogers already debuted for Suns (2 games to-date)
• pick 15 Jordan Croft yet to debut for Bulldogs but he's 200+ cms and they have about 28 of em
• pick 16 Will Green yet to debut for Swans but he's 204 cms ruck ...
• pick 17 James Leake yet to debut for GWS
• pick 18 Darcy Wilson already debuted for StK (7 games to-date)
• pick 19 Will McCabe yet to debut for Haw but he's 197 cms key back ..
• pick 20 Taylor Goad yet to debut for Nth but he's 206 cms ruck ...
• pick 21 Charlie Edwards yet to debut for Adel
• pick 22 Will Dawson yet to debut for Nth but he's 200 cms key back ...
• pick 23 Riley Hardeman already debuted for Nth (1 game to-date)
• pick 24 Caiden Cleary yet to debut for Swans
• pick 25 Harry DeMattia yet to debut for Pies but been injured up til now ..
• pick 26 Will Graham already debuted for GCS (4 games to-date)
• pick 27 Oscar Ryan yet to debut for Adel
• pick 28 Lance Collard already debuted for StK (1 game to-date)
• ...
• pick 33 Angus Hastie already debuted for StK (3 games to-date)
• ...
• pick 35 Cooper Simpson already debuted for Freo (1 game to-date)
• pick 36 Shaun Managh already debuted for Gee (1 game to-date)
• ...
• pick 40 Kane McAullife already debuted for Rich (1 game to-date)

Ummmm…..great list.

But…..
10 players from your list have “debuted”. Congrats to them!!!
7 have played for teams currently out of the 8.
1 player has played for a top 8 team.

And it’s awesome that you include academy and FS in the list…:because those players would be phenomenal if they were available in an open draft (even more that youve include the pick they were chosen at given they were already “taken”)

So your point really is….not really sure?

That maybe good players are taken?? Of which 1 has played for a team currently in the top 8?
Or that lots “might” be good?!?

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

by round 7 2024, less than 1/3rd of the H&A season complete ....

2023 AFL Draft picks (beyond your threshold point of #13):

• pick 13 Koltyn Tholstrup already debuted for Melb (1 game to-date)
• pick 14 Jake Rogers already debuted for Suns (2 games to-date)
• pick 15 Jordan Croft yet to debut for Bulldogs but he's 200+ cms and they have about 28 of em
• pick 16 Will Green yet to debut for Swans but he's 204 cms ruck ...
• pick 17 James Leake yet to debut for GWS
• pick 18 Darcy Wilson already debuted for StK (7 games to-date)
• pick 19 Will McCabe yet to debut for Haw but he's 197 cms key back ..
• pick 20 Taylor Goad yet to debut for Nth but he's 206 cms ruck ...
• pick 21 Charlie Edwards yet to debut for Adel
• pick 22 Will Dawson yet to debut for Nth but he's 200 cms key back ...
• pick 23 Riley Hardeman already debuted for Nth (1 game to-date)
• pick 24 Caiden Cleary yet to debut for Swans
• pick 25 Harry DeMattia yet to debut for Pies but been injured up til now ..
• pick 26 Will Graham already debuted for GCS (4 games to-date)
• pick 27 Oscar Ryan yet to debut for Adel
• pick 28 Lance Collard already debuted for StK (1 game to-date)
• ...
• pick 33 Angus Hastie already debuted for StK (3 games to-date)
• ...
• pick 35 Cooper Simpson already debuted for Freo (1 game to-date)
• pick 36 Shaun Managh already debuted for Gee (1 game to-date)
• ...
• pick 40 Kane McAullife already debuted for Rich (1 game to-date)

Forgot to add… any player listed as “yet to debut” doesn’t count….because, you know, they haven’t played!!!!!
Kind of a an important point.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

You have to remember that some players aren’t even on lists until they’re 21, 22 … 26. So I’m not that concerned about Allan.

Ryan had played well in the VFL. Chugg’s selection was to see what his raw athleticism could do before they cut him. Although he was a Cat A rookie, he was more of a Cat B-style in my books given his athletics background. The TSL season in 2020 also helped given it was still operating when Victorian football was shut down.

You weren’t that clear about Schultz but yes, the later the pick, the better off it is traded. I have no idea who we would have chosen in lieu of Frampton but we got good value from trading a throwaway pick.

And my argument is that the less players you have on your list 18-22….the better,
Waste of a list spot.

Have to take some due to AFL rules….

Why do you think the hit rate is better for mature age?
Sully tomorrow will tell you the same thing.
6 months list spot vs 4 years.
Time to move on from thinking 18 year old draft picks are a win!!!

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

On that basis in terms of Allan, you would have been pretty down on Josh Daicos? Josh took a while to really get going in his career.

Are you legit giving me one player to be down on that made it?
That’s like saying “how come we don’t get Dane swane” and pick 878 or whatever!

Josh showed awesome foot skills and TBH, I can’t remember whether I wrote him off due to the fact he showed an elite trait.

What draft picks show an elite trait?!?
Seriously….which ones show an elite AFL trait?

But can absolutely say I’ve been right about far more than I’m wrong about.
Ryan/allan/macrae ain’t making it in any form of being a staple.

 

[Kappa]

On that basis in terms of Allan, you would have been pretty down on Josh Daicos? Josh took a while to really get going in his career.

Josh is by far the anomaly when it comes to kids development. And Josh's case was due to asthma issues last i heard anyway

 

[sam_e]

Ummmm…..great list.

But…..
10 players from your list have “debuted”. Congrats to them!!!
7 have played for teams currently out of the 8.
1 player has played for a top 8 team.

And it’s awesome that you include academy and FS in the list…:because those players would be phenomenal if they were available in an open draft (even more that youve include the pick they were chosen at given they were already “taken”)

So your point really is….not really sure?

That maybe good players are taken?? Of which 1 has played for a team currently in the top 8?
Or that lots “might” be good?!?

Errrr ..great 'qualifiers'.

• 10 (of 27) players, across picks 13 - 40, is a decent number considering it's round 7 of the year after they've been drafted. Roll-forward 3 years (or i can go back and include the 2022 and 2021 drafts) and re-cut the list ..
• so teams sitting outside the current top 8 don't count and the top 8 at round 7 is set in stone? sure lower ranked teams might turn to youth a little more than teams competing at the top end but it still doesn't diminish the propensity for 1st & 2nd round draftees to play and to play early.
• why should we exclude academy & FS kids ..don't we have at least 2 or 3 eligible this year that we might pick up < #40?
• 'not yet debuted' ..didn;t think that would confuse anyone, i simply started listing all the 2023 draftees from pick 13 onwards including those who'd not yet debuted ..at least 5 of the 'not yet debuted' cohort are rucks 200 + cms, which makes sense

i took one small sample from one (the most recent) draft year and concluded that your point is simply NOT supported by the data. the kids coming through the draft are capable of playing 'early' (incl those in 13-40 range) and are also having an impact at the level.

IMO we paid way overs (1st + 34) for Schultz in a position we already had adequate coverage for (Ginni, HH, Richards, Sidey). and FWIW, our penchant, over the journey, for handing out 1st rounders like confetti has been nothing short of incompetent management. You don't need to have 40 * 18 yo's developing on your list at the one time .. but to diminish the quality of players available as 1st rounders from the draft is also a naive / narrow way of looking at things.

Ps: GF 2023 ..Cox > Nick > Pendles > Nick > JDG

• Cox : #1st drafted American 206 cm player into the afl
• Nick: 1st rounder: pick 4
• Pendles: 1st rounder: pick 5
• JDG: 1st rounder: pick 5

with Sidey (1st rounder: pick 11) as the 'encore'.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

Errrr ..great 'qualifiers'.

• 10 (of 27) players, across picks 13 - 40, is a decent number considering it's round 7 of the year after they've been drafted. Roll-forward 3 years (or i can go back and include the 2022 and 2021 drafts) and re-cut the list ..
• so teams sitting outside the current top 8 don't count and the top 8 at round 7 is set in stone? sure lower ranked teams might turn to youth a little more than teams competing at the top end but it still doesn't diminish the propensity for 1st & 2nd round draftees to play and to play early.
• why should we exclude academy & FS kids ..don't we have at least 2 or 3 eligible this year that we might pick up < #40?
• 'not yet debuted' ..didn;t think that would confuse anyone, i simply started listing all the 2023 draftees from pick 13 onwards including those who'd not yet debuted ..at least 5 of the 'not yet debuted' cohort are rucks 200 + cms, which makes sense

i took one small sample from one (the most recent) draft year and concluded that your point is simply NOT supported by the data. the kids coming through the draft are capable of playing 'early' (incl those in 13-40 range) and are also having an impact at the level.

IMO we paid way overs (1st + 34) for Schultz in a position we already had adequate coverage for (Ginni, HH, Richards, Sidey). and FWIW, our penchant, over the journey, for handing out 1st rounders like confetti has been nothing short of incompetent management. You don't need to have 40 * 18 yo's developing on your list at the one time .. but to diminish the quality of players available as 1st rounders from the draft is also a naive / narrow way of looking at things.

Ps: GF 2023 ..Cox > Nick > Pendles > Nick > JDG

• Cox : #1st drafted American 206 cm player into the afl
• Nick: 1st rounder: pick 4
• Pendles: 1st rounder: pick 5
• JDG: 1st rounder: pick 5

with Sidey (1st rounder: pick 11) as the 'encore'.

Did you really end with a single play in one game as the deciding moment of your commentary?!?!?
…..wow!!! Because that single play says we should tank over 20 years (which is what it took for Pendles to be a part of it).

Come on sam_e. You’re better than that mate!

The numbers look great.

But break them down by team (without FS/academy) when it’s an open draft. Also note how many picks clubs have had.
Arguing players “are rucks” is laughable in the context of what I’m speaking about……so don’t include them in your weighted analysis.

go back last year and the year before. What’s the numbers of 13-40 playing 20+ games and how many of those are in the top 8?
Plenty play in year 1 and don’t play again.

Late r1 and beyond are, based on how many picks a club has…..a dart board.

It’s amazing Ginni has played every game this year right?
Clearly he would have played every game for us?

This sort of analysis, whilst good, isn’t useful in terms of whether we should hold onto our future picks (which is really what this is about).

 

[BEEG]

Pies really need at a minimum one of Allen/Fin/Demattia to become a star.

Can't just keep butchering every draft without long term consequences.

 

[Anzacday]

One player I’ve always like is Tim Membrey

28

Tim Membrey

Age

30

Ht

188cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.2

3star

K

8.1

3star

HB

4.1

3star

M

5.8

5star

T

1.5

3star

G

1.8

5star

D

9.4

2star

K

6.5

3star

HB

2.9

2star

M

4.5

4star

T

1.3

2star

G

1.5

5star

D

9.6

3star

K

4.8

2star

HB

4.8

4star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.6

3star

.
UFA this year - 30 yo (I know, not young).

 

[The Phantom]

One player I’ve always like is Tim Membrey.
UFA this year - 30 yo (I know, not young).

The saints got him for a bargain. Has been very serviceable and effective as an undersized key forward.
We would have had a look and decided against him.

Whenever I see him interviewed I cringe.
Not the sharpest tool in the shed.

 

[Anzacday]

Whenever I see him interviewed I cringe.
Not the sharpest tool in the shed.

Clokey amd Checkers went/go alright

 

[gouki88]

Like the idea of a stop gap. Just don’t think Haynes is it. He’s been done for 3 years.

Haven’t looked at who’s available, but this strategy is exactly how you stay at the top.

Haynes was pretty handy for GWS last season

 

[The Phantom]

Clokey amd Checkers went/go alright

True dat.
I’ve met checkers a couple times. Lovely fellow.
But from the school of “I’m not too smart but I can lift heavy things “

 

[Bianconeri]

Here is a different view…

Ryan - ain’t making it. His debut was horrendous and gave up multiple goals because he was very very inept and had no idea what to do and where to run. Don’t care his age. Ain’t making it. Had no traits we want.

Allan - sorry FJ. Ain’t making it. We’ll keep him. But he ain’t the answer.
Great first round pick eh? Year 3 before he has a chance.
Has no traits we want

Shultz was a horrible trade. lol.

Because a mid teens pick is likely to play 2028….assuming we pick ok. Our current last 2 r1 picks are 4 and 2 years in..both show limited AFL traits that suit our current team.

If I’m wrong….why? (Using evidence and not hope)?

Trading for known qty is far better than guessing past pick 10 in the ND.

If Ryan and Allan had no traits we wanted they would have been drafted and there contract’s immediately extended.

 

[BuildEmUp]

Errrr ..great 'qualifiers'.

• 10 (of 27) players, across picks 13 - 40, is a decent number considering it's round 7 of the year after they've been drafted. Roll-forward 3 years (or i can go back and include the 2022 and 2021 drafts) and re-cut the list ..
• so teams sitting outside the current top 8 don't count and the top 8 at round 7 is set in stone? sure lower ranked teams might turn to youth a little more than teams competing at the top end but it still doesn't diminish the propensity for 1st & 2nd round draftees to play and to play early.
• why should we exclude academy & FS kids ..don't we have at least 2 or 3 eligible this year that we might pick up < #40?
• 'not yet debuted' ..didn;t think that would confuse anyone, i simply started listing all the 2023 draftees from pick 13 onwards including those who'd not yet debuted ..at least 5 of the 'not yet debuted' cohort are rucks 200 + cms, which makes sense

i took one small sample from one (the most recent) draft year and concluded that your point is simply NOT supported by the data. the kids coming through the draft are capable of playing 'early' (incl those in 13-40 range) and are also having an impact at the level.

IMO we paid way overs (1st + 34) for Schultz in a position we already had adequate coverage for (Ginni, HH, Richards, Sidey). and FWIW, our penchant, over the journey, for handing out 1st rounders like confetti has been nothing short of incompetent management. You don't need to have 40 * 18 yo's developing on your list at the one time .. but to diminish the quality of players available as 1st rounders from the draft is also a naive / narrow way of looking at things.

Ps: GF 2023 ..Cox > Nick > Pendles > Nick > JDG

• Cox : #1st drafted American 206 cm player into the afl
• Nick: 1st rounder: pick 4
• Pendles: 1st rounder: pick 5
• JDG: 1st rounder: pick 5

with Sidey (1st rounder: pick 11) as the 'encore'.

coverage in : Ginni ( not here appraently plays for another club i heard) , HH not a scratch on Sarge - maybe in 2-3 yea rs, Richards oh Really? , Sidey: on the way to retirement plays wing anyway ??

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

Haynes was pretty handy for GWS last season

Yeah i was a big fan, but i must admit i'm going off not seeing him for a few years.
I actually forgot he was still playing (bit like Sloane).

As i said, if that's the path the club takes, i'm on board as its a sound strategy.
i'll back them to know more about his recent history than me.

 

[TheVillageIdiot7]

If Ryan and Allan had no traits we wanted they would have been drafted and there contract’s immediately extended.

it's very rare that kids drafted don't get initially extended.
Which is basically my point in that they take up a list spot for 3-4 years before anyone works out they wont get there.

I've been down on Ryan since early on. So my view hasn't changed on him.
Allan just hasn't improved at the level i'd expect a 'teens' draft pick to.

What traits do you see them both having that translate well to another step up?

 

[Rusty Beam]

Issac Cumming as a free agent is a no brainer IMO.

Particularly since we have made it clear that we are focusing on raiding teams through free agency.

Would be a perfect replacement for Howe in the backline.

Same reason I’d like us to go after Zurharr. With the right environment and fitness staff reckon he would be a 60/40 midfielder for us. Absolute free hit and I could finally see the bash brothers together (with DeGoey)

Both would really straighten up that middle bracket 24-27 age bracket in our list demographics.

They’d both be my priorities this year.

 

[brysie]

Umm…not sure you got my post. But all good.

Had a mate who knows footy (that was there)that reckons Ryan had absolutely no idea when he played last year. That was a reward game if any. Same as Chugg.

Good players, who have long careers, make themselves available in year 2. Is Allan doing that? Is he close?!? What position does he play in AFL to force his way in….fringe at best. Harsh but reality as it stands.

How did I criticise the trades we made?!? Shultz is 10000% a better deal than keeping our amazing first pick this year (who likely won’t have a material impact until 2027).

Pretty comfortable with what I know about footy mate. Happy to debate realities of the current footy world if you want?!? So maybe don’t give me the childish “watch more footy” comment…..

But what are your fibre twitches like; fast or slow?

 

[Bianconeri]

it's very rare that kids drafted don't get initially extended.
Which is basically my point in that they take up a list spot for 3-4 years before anyone works out they wont get there.

I've been down on Ryan since early on. So my view hasn't changed on him.
Allan just hasn't improved at the level i'd expect a 'teens' draft pick to.

What traits do you see them both having that translate well to another step up?

Yes but it’s also very rare that draftees get extended before they’ve even played a game for the club.

I don’t disagree with the overall point that you’re making. Just disagree with the specific claim that they don’t have traits. I think both Ryan and Allan have traits but they don’t translate on the footy field as effectively as we hoped when they were drafting.

They both have good size, speed and tanks. Ryan can find the ball but doesn’t have any hurt factor with his disposal and I’m not convinced he’s good enough defensively to make up for that and even if he was not sure we can carry someone so passive ball in hand in the team regardless. I’m hindsight he’s not a player I’d have extended immediately but maybe it’s not a bad thing to culture wise to give draftees more development time.

Allan does have some x-factor when he gets the ball but doesn’t get enough of it and doesn’t look like he know he’s doing when playing on the outside and looks to awkward trying to win the ball on the inside. Our VFL team lacking a good extractor to feed out the ball probably hasn’t helped. I think Allan can turn into a role play if he learns better running patterns.

 

[well left]

Issac Cumming as a free agent is a no brainer IMO.

Particularly since we have made it clear that we are focusing on raiding teams through free agency.

Would be a perfect replacement for Howe in the backline.

Same reason I’d like us to go after Zurharr. With the right environment and fitness staff reckon he would be a 60/40 midfielder for us. Absolute free hit and I could finally see the bash brothers together (with DeGoey)

Both would really straighten up that middle bracket 24-27 age bracket in our list demographics.

They’d both be my priorities this year.

I think Perryman is a FA as well. Either him or Cumming would be a good fit I reckon.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Rusty Beam]

I think Perryman is a FA as well. Either him or Cumming would be a good fit I reckon.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

Yeah I thought about him. But I never really think much about him watching the Giants and digging into his stats I don’t think he’s actually that good.

Would much prefer Cumming.

 

[sam_e]

Did you really end with a single play in one game as the deciding moment of your commentary?!?!?
…..wow!!! Because that single play says we should tank over 20 years (which is what it took for Pendles to be a part of it).

Come on sam_e. You’re better than that mate!

The numbers look great.

But break them down by team (without FS/academy) when it’s an open draft. Also note how many picks clubs have had.
Arguing players “are rucks” is laughable in the context of what I’m speaking about……so don’t include them in your weighted analysis.

go back last year and the year before. What’s the numbers of 13-40 playing 20+ games and how many of those are in the top 8?
Plenty play in year 1 and don’t play again.

Late r1 and beyond are, based on how many picks a club has…..a dart board.

It’s amazing Ginni has played every game this year right?
Clearly he would have played every game for us?

This sort of analysis, whilst good, isn’t useful in terms of whether we should hold onto our future picks (which is really what this is about).

i enjoyed your response but as they say, it often takes a village to ..realise the inconsistencies and shifting of the goal-posts in raising a child or an idiot.

'single play', come on dude ..not one but two deciding (aka 'clutch') moments in the granny that determine whether we add to our long history of 'falling at the last hurdle' vs saluting ..and yes, it was a cadre of our 1st rounders that got it done

..whilst all the 1st rounders, of recent times, we'd allocated to our confetti throwing pile were either vacationing down at the Kennel (Treloar) or doing finger painting (Beams).

'should tank over 20 years' ..if you remove the '0' your comment is more accurate. you do realise after finishing 2nd (2003) it then took a full 2-years of bottoming out to 13th (2004) and 15th (2005), in order to procure Thomas (#2) and Sir Scott #5), before bouncing back to 5th (2006). And young Scott - arguably the greatest player of our club in the modern era - played 9 games in his 1st year, 23 in his 2nd year etc whilst Thomas played 16 and 25; combined, those two have contributed 447 senior games and still counting! So you're arguing the 2-years ain't worth it ..okay@!

But clearly Scotty's a generational talent, a freak, an exception to the rule. Name me 1 player procured from our confetti throwing strategy (and Buckley doesn't count cos he was already a known quantity at draft time) that has had the same / similar impact on the club ..yep, doughnuts!

'Late r1 picks are a dart board' ..c'mon dude you're way better than that. Go back as far as our late r1 (#17) pick in 2020, Ollie Henry, is an absolute gun (played 54 games, scoring 84.49 goals in first 3+ seasons). Then go even further back, to the same draft year (2020), and check out another late r1 (#19) pick in Finn MaCrae ..old mate Hiney picked up a slow'ish tweener instead of the more athletic Max Holmes who went at pick #20. Dangerfield has recently said of Max Holmes that "..he has Judd-like traits ..could be the best the player in the comp". Old Hiney had the chance to absolutely crush the 2020 draft alas ..my point is, if you have a half-decent recruiting team ya don't put so much stock in a confetti throwing strategy.

ps: Hiney's selection of Ryan (no particular afl traits, plodder) at #28 is a repeat of his 2020 work re Finn, albeit with much longer hair (see L.Cowan taken at #30).

Ginni not playing games for us this year is exactly my point ..we had depth in the position of small forward: Hill. McCreery and Elliott (already in the team & playing that position), Ginni, HH and Richards (not in the team & play that same position) and Sidey (in the team and a position he would excel in). ps: i appreciate you making arguments that support my point.

In summary, stop misusing rd 1 picks cos you like confetti, consider handing Hiney his long-service gold watch and ffs, pick up & back in the quality kids to generate a balanced list (age profile, positional, quality).

 

[Scodog10]

Issac Cumming as a free agent is a no brainer IMO.

Particularly since we have made it clear that we are focusing on raiding teams through free agency.

Would be a perfect replacement for Howe in the backline.

Same reason I’d like us to go after Zurharr. With the right environment and fitness staff reckon he would be a 60/40 midfielder for us. Absolute free hit and I could finally see the bash brothers together (with DeGoey)

Both would really straighten up that middle bracket 24-27 age bracket in our list demographics.

They’d both be my priorities this year.

Isaac’s career is one I’ve watched since his draft year because I always felt he’s one that was up to the top level. The big issue is his body and the best ability is availability. He’s at 75 matches in 6 completed seasons after missing all of his debut season and all of 2024 so far. He just doesn’t play enough, IMO.