Strategy Pick trades 2020

[Suma Magic]

A thread to discuss pick trades before and during the draft.

I imagine on every team board there are posters throwing up unrealistic pick trades.

I'd be interested to hear:
- any comments your club has made
- your club's limitations (e.g. can't trade future first)
- your f/s or academy considerations
- what you or other fans hope your club will do or think your club will do.

For West Coast:
- we have no academy considerations
- we can't trade our future first
- we have two 2021 seconds, a 2021 third and a 2021 4th.

I imagine we will sit there and wait and see how the draft plays out. Then we will be offering up some combo of future picks to try to get into the draft if there is someone we like who we don't think will last to the end of the draft. Which is probably as straight forward as it gets in terms of scenario planning.

 

[Lore]

Essendon

- Won't trade our future first
- Due to list size constraints, we probably can't take all of 6, 7 and 8 into the draft and still pick up both of our NGA prospects
- Making noises about moving up the draft to get Logan McDonald, who we're apparently very into

Guessing if we can't move up we probably try to move one of our first rounders into next year's draft instead.

 

[Prochard123]

Collingwood

- Almost a guarantee to trade out future 1st
- We'd be aiming to make live selections with pick 14 & 16, meaning our residual points won't be enough for McInnes who is predicted to receive a bid in the 15-25 range (https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...e/news-story/6a518685ca99d623268da375ce992fd7)
- There's a chance we could package 14, 16, future 1st (likely to be top 10 pick after losing Treloar/Stephenson/Phillips) for an early 1st this year + more points to cover for McInnes, This way we can dodge McInnes bid 100% as well, even if without a trade we are still 80% likely to dodge.

 

[The Nostradamus]

Reckon gc will spend big to try upgrade their pick 5 to norths pick 2

Their list is huge so can see them taking advantage this year of drafting 1 new player

 

[Thetrader15]

Collingwood

- Almost a guarantee to trade out future 1st
- We'd be aiming to make live selections with pick 14 & 16, meaning our residual points won't be enough for McInnes who is predicted to receive a bid in the 15-25 range (https://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/af...e/news-story/6a518685ca99d623268da375ce992fd7)
- There's a chance we could package 14, 16, future 1st (likely to be top 10 pick after losing Treloar/Stephenson/Phillips) for an early 1st this year + more points to cover for McInnes, This way we can dodge McInnes bid 100% as well, even if without a trade we are still 80% likely to dodge.

I can see the pies making a move due to McInnes. Possibly Crows pick 9, 2020/2 for Pies 2020/1 and 14.

 

[Prochard123]

I'd imagine

Future 1st (top 10 pick) + 14 + 16

for

2 + 28

Could be on the decks. Main competitor seems to be Essendon, guess it just depends on whether north subscribes to the "Big 7" idea for this draft (meaning none of Essendon's picks will get you the elite players of this draft)

 

[Prochard123]

I can see the pies making a move due to McInnes. Possibly Crows pick 9, 2020/2 for Pies 2020/1 and 14.

This is really unattractive for us.

Minimal difference between 9 and 14 (neither will get Ugle-Hagan, Hollands, Thilthorpe, Phillips, Denver, Mcdonald, Campbell)

With McInnes forecasted to receive a bid in the 15 - 25 range, we are probably going to dodge that bid anyways.

 

[The Nostradamus]

I'd imagine

Future 1st (top 10 pick) + 14 + 16

for

2 + 28

Could be on the decks. Main competitor seems to be Essendon, guess it just depends on whether north subscribes to the "Big 7" idea for this draft (meaning none of Essendon's picks will get you the elite players of this draft)

Yeah we wouldn’t do that - also we don’t have 28. Our picks are 2,11,30,39

gc apparently on our board have offer pick 5,27,37 and future first for Pick 2 (They will look to bring in just the 1 player or 2 max this year)

 

[Prochard123]

Yeah we wouldn’t do that - also we don’t have 28. Our picks are 2,11,30,39

gc apparently on our board have offer pick 5,27,37 and future first for it (They will look to bring in just the 1 player or 2 max this year)

I went off this, maybe it's not updated

Resource - 2020 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

It's fine if you don't want to do it, there is plenty of value in the mid-late first range (Finlay Macrae for example). The point is, if we are to move to the ladder, the lowest relevant pick would be GC's pick 5, otherwise there isn't a material improvement in the quality of options available.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I'd imagine

Future 1st (top 10 pick) + 14 + 16

for

2 + 28

Could be on the decks. Main competitor seems to be Essendon, guess it just depends on whether north subscribes to the "Big 7" idea for this draft (meaning none of Essendon's picks will get you the elite players of this draft)

Doubt it. North still want a top five pick for this year and would only trade 2 for ridiculous overs.

 

[Prochard123]

Doubt it. North still want a top five pick and would only trade 2 for ridiculous overs.

Judging on multiple articles that came out, you guys seem super open to the idea of trading your top 5 pick, at least much more than other clubs.

And is 3 firsts not ridiculous overs already? LOL

Personally there is absolutely no way I do that deal, only possible due to our list manager's incompetence. Mcdonald has a < 50% chance of being decent anyways, really no where near being worthwhile to sell the farm for. I mean just look at the horrendous success rates of past high-draft pick KPFs, even 25% success rate is generous.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

Judging on multiple articles that came out, you guys seem super open to the idea of trading your top 5 pick, at least much more than other clubs.

And is 3 firsts not ridiculous overs already? LOL

Personally there is absolutely no way I do that deal, only possible due to our list manager's incompetence. Mcdonald has a < 50% chance of being decent anyways, really no where near being worthwhile to sell the farm for. I mean just look at the horrendous success rates of past high-draft pick KPFs, even 25% success rate is generous.

Multiple articles regurgitating the same one quote doesn’t reflect extra keenness beyond the original quote.


Incorrect, North said we are open to the possibility if it suits the club with a clear focus on strengthening this year’s and next year’s draft hands. Something early this year in the top 5 and something early-ish for next year suits these criteria. 14 and 16 are no-mans land type of picks in a compromised draft.

 

[Thetrader15]

I'd imagine

Future 1st (top 10 pick) + 14 + 16

for

2 + 28

Could be on the decks. Main competitor seems to be Essendon, guess it just depends on whether north subscribes to the "Big 7" idea for this draft (meaning none of Essendon's picks will get you the elite players of this draft)

Would that be payback from North for getting Stephenson for nothing?

As such as one sided trade, I wonder if other clubs would kick up a fuss - seems like draft tampering to me if that got through

 

[Lore]

I went off this, maybe it's not updated

Resource - 2020 AFL Draft Order

Every trade as it happens!

www.bigfooty.com

It's fine if you don't want to do it, there is plenty of value in the mid-late first range (Finlay Macrae for example). The point is, if we are to move to the ladder, the lowest relevant pick would be GC's pick 5, otherwise there isn't a material improvement in the quality of options available.

It's not updated because AFLHQ haven't confirmed the last three trades, but there's an interim version that is up to date based on media reports.

Read the last page of the thread for details

 

[Thetrader15]

Doubt it. North still want a top five pick for this year and would only trade 2 for ridiculous overs.

I think the GC 5 and 2020/1 for pick 2 is the only one which has any chance of getting pick 2.

 

[Kangaroos4eva]

I think the GC 5 and 2020/1 for pick 2 is the only one which has any chance of getting pick 2.

I doubt it’ll happen, but the club said they won’t close the door on something like that.

 

[Prochard123]

Would that be payback from North for getting Stephenson for nothing?

As such as one sided trade, I wonder if other clubs would kick up a fuss - seems like draft tampering to me if that got through

No lol

If these picks were pre-arranged then they would've been included in the initial deal. Makes no sense to just rely on another club to live up their words.

Only way is if North say - Look we will pay you back for Stephenson, but if we get a better offer for pick 2, we will pay you back in the future. Which is also quite dumb and unprofessional, and Ned Guy would have to be 5x his idiotic self to agree to that.

 

[Prochard123]

I think the GC 5 and 2020/1 for pick 2 is the only one which has any chance of getting pick 2.

That'd be a seriously terrible trade for GC.

The whole attraction of pick 2 is Mcdonald anyways, which GC absolutely does not need with considerable previous investment in KPFs (Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

, Jack Lukosius

13

Jack Lukosius

Age

24

Ht

195cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

369.3

5star

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

3star

MG

369.3

5star

D

13.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

358.0

5star

).

The only players I see them moving up for would be DGB/Hollands.

 

[FreeAgent1]

My bet would be:
1- Norths pick 2 traded to Gold Coast for 5, 27, 37 and future pick
2- Hawks trade pick 4 to GWS for pick 10 + 13
3- Essendon try to get pick 2 but fail.
4- Pies trade 14 + 16 for crows pick 9 + 23

Bascially no one wants to be holding picks in late 20s early 30s this year, which over-values the top 10 picks and undervalues rest of the picks.

I can see both GWS and Gold Coast offering considerably more than Essendon for pick 2.

I think both would take Hollands as well.

 

[The Nostradamus]

That'd be a seriously terrible trade for GC.

The whole attraction of pick 2 is Mcdonald anyways, which GC absolutely does not need with considerable previous investment in KPFs (Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

, Jack Lukosius

13

Jack Lukosius

Age

24

Ht

195cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

369.3

5star

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

3star

MG

369.3

5star

D

13.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

358.0

5star

).

The only players I see them moving up for would be DGB/Hollands.

Lukosious they don’t want KPF, instead using him as the playmaker off hbf so can see the appeal in McDonald to partner king for a decade

 

[Thetrader15]

That'd be a seriously terrible trade for GC.

The whole attraction of pick 2 is Mcdonald anyways, which GC absolutely does not need with considerable previous investment in KPFs (Ben King

34

Ben King

Age

24

Ht

202cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

7.2

2star

K

5.0

2star

HB

2.2

2star

M

3.5

4star

T

0.5

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

7.5

2star

K

5.6

2star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.6

4star

T

0.3

1star

G

1.5

5star

D

6.8

2star

K

4.4

2star

HB

2.4

3star

M

3.2

4star

T

0.2

3star

G

1.0

4star

, Jack Lukosius

13

Jack Lukosius

Age

24

Ht

195cm

Wt

91kg

Pos.

D/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

369.3

5star

D

14.8

4star

K

11.5

4star

HB

3.3

2star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

3star

MG

369.3

5star

D

13.6

4star

K

11.2

4star

HB

2.4

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

358.0

5star

).

The only players I see them moving up for would be DGB/Hollands.

Luko plays back. Remember GC don't value picks like other teams due to the concessions they have. Look at trading pick 11 this year for 23 last year.

They just add academy players to their list, so giving up another 1st is a bit irrelevant. I think they are going to go for FAs and mature age players next year as well and ignore the draft.

 

[Prochard123]

Lukosious they don’t want KPF, instead using him as the playmaker off hbf so can see the appeal in McDonald to partner king for a decade

Luko plays back. Remember GC don't value picks like other teams due to the concessions they have. Look at trading pick 11 this year for 23 last year.

They just add academy players to their list, so giving up another 1st is a bit irrelevant. I think they are going to go for FAs and mature age players next year as well and ignore the draft.

Lukosius is a natural CHF, he is only playing back due to light frame so he can develop there.

 

[Thetrader15]

Lukosius is a natural CHF, he is only playing back due to light frame so he can develop there.

That might be how it started, but he's 2 years in now, and hasn't played forward for a long time. They love his foot skills out of defence. He's staying there until he requests a trade to the crows

 

[Thetrader15]

My bet would be:
1- Norths pick 2 traded to Gold Coast for 5, 27, 37 and future pick
2- Hawks trade pick 4 to GWS for pick 10 + 13
3- Essendon try to get pick 2 but fail.
4- Pies trade 14 + 16 for crows pick 9 + 23

Bascially no one wants to be holding picks in late 20s early 30s this year, which over-values the top 10 picks and undervalues rest of the picks.

I can see both GWS and Gold Coast offering considerably more than Essendon for pick 2.

I think both would take Hollands as well.

Not sure the pies do 14, 16 for 9, 23.

23 will be taken with a bid, they might want a future 2nd instead, but I don't know if the crows would trade it.

 

[Prochard123]

That might be how it started, but he's 2 years in now, and hasn't played forward for a long time. They love his foot skills out of defence. He's staying there until he requests a trade to the crows

Well yes his footskills are exceptional, 55 - 65 metre kick.

Although he does have a lot of turnovers too, and a 55 metre goal is better than a 55 metre rebound