Autopsy Pies win by 11 points

[motr]

I've got the last eight years to confirm that call. How much time do I need?

It's pretty clear Mayne was bought for structural reasons. Im waiting to see how that pans out.

 

[Scodog10]

Scodog10 been reading this thread with interest and as usual enjoying the thoughts you put forward. Just wanted to put forward some views and evidence that might challenge a theme that you have running through here that Cox is not suited to the forward ruck role as opposed to the ruck forward role. My view agrees with yours in that with Grundy in the team the only role available to Cox is forward ruck but disagree that he can't be suitable for it. My first feeling is it's the role he has predominantly played both at VFL and AFL level thus far in his career. It's the role that Collingwood is grooming him for, wisely with Grundy there, and he has shown some appitude for it. I have places some alternative ideas below


Cox is a completely different kettle of fish to Witts as a forward. Just on goal scoring ability alone the contrast is stark. Cox 17 goals in 11 games, Witts 18 goals in 40 games. Additionally Cox has elite speed for a big man meaning he can develop further as a leading player and is much more adept offensively below his knees. Comes from soccer I expect but involves tap ons and clearing a path for teammates etc also. Clearly defensively he struggles to impact. Cox is also taller with a much greater leap which means he can even present an even bigger differential in height difference. He is just a different proposition on the forward line compared to Witts


While goalkicking isn't the only measure of a forward it remains the primary function so it's interesting to contrast how Cox goes there. Off the top of my head the two most successful players who have spent a lot of time as forward rucks in recent times would be Ryder and Hale. There may be better examples I have neglected. Still Hale in his Hawthorn years never came near scoring 1.6 goals/game that Cox managed in his 1st 11games. Hale was a 3x flag player mainly living in that forward-ruck role. One year at North he was able to match that rate. Ryder, he has rucked a lot but had years also where he played more forward has also never got near that goal per game rate in 10 seasons.

Looking at some of the premier KPFs of recent times only Jeremy Cameron has outscored Cox when 1st 11 games are compared. Cloke 9 goals, Cameron 22 goals, Lynch 12 goals, Wright 11goals, Moore 11 goals, J Riewoldt 13 goals, Kennedy 6 goals, Hawkins 13 goals. Interesting but not necessarily conclusive figures.


Two things here.

It's a curious proposition to suggest experienced KPBs have learned to outbody Cox without giving the 11 game novice the possibility of further learning to use his vast height and leap advantage to push the ledger back to his benefit. Surely one thing Cox may learn to do is be much more dangerous in the contested mark situation where he presents unique challenges to his opponents that he could learn to further exploit.

With regard to our ball use it was appalling in 2016 but shapes as an area of improve in 2017. These names are a good reason for that Wells(elite), Fasolo, Elliott, Pendlebury, WHE, Aish, Ramsay, Smith, Varcoe, Maynard, Sidebottom. All those players are at least improvement on a lot of the 2016 players and are either developing, new to the team, coming off injury or noted good disposers already. It means our forwards should expect better service in 2017. Cox who can lead and will further develop in this area shapes as a major beneficiary here. On the lead with average to good delivery he is a danger potentially.

I think overall you have gone too early with the theory Cox can't be a forward who rucks a bit. His other advantage in this role is he looks like his ruckwork is coming on in leaps and bounds so can be a more dangerous 2 ruck than most who play that role

I guess to work backward we're talking about an 11 game 26yo foreigner. Straight off the bat I have to say that were he 5 years younger this discussion changes completely. Its primarily because forward craft is much more difficult to master than ruck craft with his attributes more suited to the ruck role, IMO. He isn't going to be up against guys that can exploit his weaknesses as easily through the middle.

A quick look at where he's played the majority of his football to date and at VFL he doesn't stand out with his forward craft. He's tall, so what? When you're poor overhead, useless at ground level, can't spread and struggle with leading patterns the starting point as a forward is limited. For every learning he takes in a quality KPD worth their salt will have an answer.

Ball use is crucial to our prospects this year. It helps Cox with the style of forward he is, but we don't have him free wheeling enough to cash in. Until the game structure advances that area is a highly speculative one.

How many of those KPF's were 25 on debut? Apples and apples for mine. Ryder and Hale have something going for them that Cox can't match, mobility. They covered the ground extremely well by position and provide an outlet around the ground which Cox can't based on his marking output which is poor for someone of his size. Look over how those two impact its rarely a case of them standing at the top of the square and having ut kickedon their head like Cox relies on currently.

I would consider Grundy a poor mark and he runs at 3.2 per game v Cox's 2.7. Until Cox can bring it to the same level as the likes of Hale and Ryder its another circuitous discussion. Its also worth considering that his back end to the season was poor in his final 6 games he averaged 6ppg, 6 ho and 1.2 g that sort of productivity falls into line with defensive groups figuring him out and is the sort of impact Witts provides.

I also think its important to remember Witts was used as a full time ruck in more than half of those matches and never received the forward training Cox has. As a full time forward he would add much the same as Cox which is a target for a lower rung team, but a team looking to improve can't afford the loss in mobility I50.

Overall I look at it as what is the most value adding move? Cox will provide the best ruck support and that's where he has the edge. He'll be good for a goal a game or thereabouts, but so will the likes of WHE, White and Blair who are the other options on the edges of that forward mix. Does 20% game time through the middle of the ground trump the x factor of WHE? The mobility of White? The defensive pressure of Blair? What about the other intangibles like the extra ball those three win or the spread they provide from contests. He just can't bring the overall forward game that others can for mine.

Overall I'll live with a structure containing Moore and Cox as the talls, even if neither gets on their bike enough, but it won't work with the three talls because White will get lost and Cox won't have a big enough impact deep. The clubs move to have him as the second ruck so far this pre-season is encouraging because he can be an adequate role player as a crab ruckman that pushes forward intermittently. A crab forward that chops out in the ruck is less of a priority.

FWIW I think anyone that holds the view that he can make it up forward should look at how he impacts in that role. Its all based on his size which isn't sustainable in modern footy. Look at Moore v Ambrose. At this stage Moore impacts through his athleticism alone and doesn't do enough of the hard stuff (100 metre leads) until he brings that smaller bulky KPD's can get him by playing off him and bodying up before he leaps. With Cox its all about his size which posters appear fascinated with if you take that advantage away what else has he got?..

For the long term prosperity of the group Cox as a ruckman is a stronger option and a role he can make an impact in the forward ruck role not so much when there's guys that add more in other areas already in the best 22. Here's to hoping I'm wrong because our club is one forever not learning from its mistakes and QB 2016 should be burned into the memories of everyone that works with and supports our club. Sacrificing mobility for height in modern footy is a risky game!

I also have to note that I find it odd that you take the view that he has an apptitude for ruckwork and that it is coming along only to then present an argument that he can work in another role? Its a very Collingwood mentality that we see one thing and then use that to answer a different question (think White in defence last year).

 

[Gone Critical]

Sco my base difference with you isn't that Cox may be a better option as a ruckman rather I havent given up on him being an effective forward. I feel you have gone too early with your conclusions.

A quick look at where he's played the majority of his football to date and at VFL he doesn't stand out with his forward craft. He's tall, so what? When you're poor overhead, useless at ground level, can't spread and struggle with leading patterns the starting point as a forward is limited. For every learning he takes in a quality KPD worth their salt will have an answer.

This is perhaps where we disagree most. I see Cox as having other attributes other than just height. Hoping a tall man like say Witts will make it as a forward without other attributes is doomed I agree. Cox isnt just tall however. He is very tall with a great leap. Look at the pictures below, they give Cox a physical advantage over his opponents that is huge. He is also quick with a 3.0 sec 20 m. At VFL level he has mixed playing between ruck and forward but his forward work has clearly shown potential. The 5 consecutive goals he kicked against a failing Richmond in 2015 showed that. Contested marks, leads and a snap in ground play.

He has promise overhead, is good offensively below his knees for a big man. He leads pretty well both in the VFL and AFL. His attributes are unique, his early games promising and his work ethic and desire to succeed are reported to be manic. My main point is its too early to declare this forward experiment a failure.

View attachment 340512

 

[Gone Critical]

How many of those KPF's were 25 on debut? Apples and apples for mine. Ryder and Hale have something going for them that Cox can't match, mobility. They covered the ground extremely well by position and provide an outlet around the ground which Cox can't based on his marking output which is poor for someone of his size. Look over how those two impact its rarely a case of them standing at the top of the square and having ut kickedon their head like Cox relies on currently.

I would consider Grundy a poor mark and he runs at 3.2 per game v Cox's 2.7. Until Cox can bring it to the same level as the likes of Hale and Ryder its another circuitous discussion. Its also worth considering that his back end to the season was poor in his final 6 games he averaged 6ppg, 6 ho and 1.2 g that sort of productivity falls into line with defensive groups figuring him out and is the sort of impact Witts provides.

I think Hale and Ryder are interesting to compare to Cox because they do have similarities. Cox has mobility. He is fast off the mark, he kicked a number of goals in AFL from ground ball situations in 2016, on other occasions he created pathways for teammates, knocked ground balls on , dived chasing balls etc. He will always find it difficult chasing and harassing smaller opponents, therefore all opponents, and his height makes that difficult. He leads frequently and doesnt just wrestle in the forward 50.

As for the marks per game and needing to bring it to Hale or Ryder levels. Cox at 2.7 marks per game in his 1st 11 AFL games isnt hugely different to Hales 2.3 (2015), 3.5 (2014) and 4.1 (2013) in Hawks premiership teams. Truth is Hale and Ryder both go at 4.2 marks per game over their careers and only have 2 seasons in the 25 seasons they have played between them where they managed 5 marks or better per game. Cox's numbers even early on are not that different and you would expect them to improve.

Cox already as a goal scorer is way ahead of Ryder and comfortably ahead of Hale if we consider goals per game ( albeit Cox's sample size is small). As I said its just too early to give up on Cox as a forward. He may not make it, needs to do plenty more , but the testing is far from complete

 

[jackcass]

Could've used that money we spent on Mayne to retain Brown.

That's probably my biggest takeaway.

As I understand it, Brown left for a longer contract, not necessarily more $$$ than the 1 year deal on offer at the Pies.

 

[Gone Critical]

For the long term prosperity of the group Cox as a ruckman is a stronger option and a role he can make an impact in the forward ruck role not so much when there's guys that add more in other areas already in the best 22.

I also have to note that I find it odd that you take the view that he has an apptitude for ruckwork and that it is coming along only to then present an argument that he can work in another role? Its a very Collingwood mentality that we see one thing and then use that to answer a different question (think White in defence last year).

Your argument here would have great merit if we didnt have a young ruckman who is showing potential to match the best. Grundy will take a lot of displacing if Cox is developed as a primary ruckman. As such my argument acknowledges Cox could be developed as a ruckman primarily but if he is its likely he remains a VFL understudy who would only get games if Grundy goes down. The position he is in means being primarily a ruckman isnt going to give him much chance. Its clear his ruckwork is developing. That doesnt preclude a conclusion that he would be better developed as a forward-ruck in the current Collingwood list. It really only enhances the prospects of that senario working.

I am more interested in seeing where he can go as a forward also. The below picture represents the intrigue of that idea very well. Cox on the lead potentially presents and unbeatable leading forward prospect. If he can regularly get into that position on the lead the backman is essentially unable to influence the contest. I know he is far from established but I just disagree Cox's papers are already stamped when it comes to him being a forward

 

[TradeDraft]

As I understand it, Brown left for a longer contract, not necessarily more $$$ than the 1 year deal on offer at the Pies.

Going by the Little $$$ and 1 year Contract we offered. We/Gubby was not Fussed IF Brown Stayed or Went

 

[jackcass]

Going by the Little $$$ and 1 year Contract we offered. We/Gubby was not Fussed IF Brown Stayed or Went

Well you don't offer a contract if you don't want someone to stay. They just weren't prepared to offer more than 1 year.

 

[TradeDraft]

Well you don't offer a contract if you don't want someone to stay. They just weren't prepared to offer more than 1 year.

Well he would be Great Back-Up and/or Do well for the VFL Team

 

[mike123]

Overall I look at it as what is the most value adding move? Cox will provide the best ruck support and that's where he has the edge. He'll be good for a goal a game or thereabouts, but so will the likes of WHE, White and Blair who are the other options on the edges of that forward mix. Does 20% game time through the middle of the ground trump the x factor of WHE? The mobility of White? The defensive pressure of Blair? What about the other intangibles like the extra ball those three win or the spread they provide from contests. He just can't bring the overall forward game that others can for mine.

Positive on Blair?

Are your ok Sco?

 

[Scodog10]

Gone Critical images of a guy jumping in some VFL and pre-season matches just isn't enough to convince me that he has enough mobility to persist with as a forward because he just doesn't bring it enough in the 20 odd games I've seen of him. Especially when the numbers don't yet back it up.

Until he starts bringing it consistently I won't buy in for the same reason I won't with Blair until he adds hurt factor, Smith until he brings a defensive game or, a discussion from last year, Frost anything other than stopping ability.

Unfortunately as a mature age player it isn't there for me up forward. I would also add that the guy I would compare with is Podsiadley. A guy that came in and had an immediate impact that doesn't have long term scope in the game. We've traditionally struggled to produce mature impact players and often forget they don't just improve exponentially over time. I have no doubt the hope is that his foreign background counteracts that, but its forlorn up forward, IMO.

FWIW Ryder spent the first 50 matches of his career in defense so its not surprising his numbers are lower in terms of goal output.

 

[Scodog10]

Positive on Blair?

Are your ok Sco?

Realistic not positive. Give me three Blair's inside 50 over playing two KPF's that offer little in the air. As above I'd also rate him if he can find a way to be more damaging with ball in hand as he was v Essendon. Its all about the best mix which Cox up forward doesn't add to, IMO.

 

[barrackers]

Sco my base difference with you isn't that Cox may be a better option as a ruckman rather I havent given up on him being an effective forward. I feel you have gone too early with your conclusions.


This is perhaps where we disagree most. I see Cox as having other attributes other than just height. Hoping a tall man like say Witts will make it as a forward without other attributes is doomed I agree. Cox isnt just tall however. He is very tall with a great leap. Look at the pictures below, they give Cox a physical advantage over his opponents that is huge. He is also quick with a 3.0 sec 20 m. At VFL level he has mixed playing between ruck and forward but his forward work has clearly shown potential. The 5 consecutive goals he kicked against a failing Richmond in 2015 showed that. Contested marks, leads and a snap in ground play.

He has promise overhead, is good offensively below his knees for a big man. He leads pretty well both in the VFL and AFL. His attributes are unique, his early games promising and his work ethic and desire to succeed are reported to be manic. My main point is its too early to declare this forward experiment a failure.

View attachment 340512

Cox can certainly be a handy role player and provide a good forward option and threat (better than Witts), but there's no doubt that he needs to work on his marking. 2 of those pictures possibly give an insight into why he often nearly marks the footy, but doesn't succeed. Traditionally overhead marks are taken with your thumbs together and both hands behind the footy; Cox however has his left hand in front of the footy, which suggests he snaps or grabs at the ball instead of letting it come to him with soft hands.

 

[Gone Critical]

Gone Critical images of a guy jumping in some VFL and pre-season matches just isn't enough to convince me that he has enough mobility to persist with as a forward because he just doesn't bring it enough in the 20 odd games I've seen of him. Especially when the numbers don't yet back it up.

Until he starts bringing it consistently I won't buy in for the same reason I won't with Blair until he adds hurt factor, Smith until he brings a defensive game or, a discussion from last year, Frost anything other than stopping ability.

Unfortunately as a mature age player it isn't there for me up forward. I would also add that the guy I would compare with is Podsiadley. A guy that came in and had an immediate impact that doesn't have long term scope in the game. We've traditionally struggled to produce mature impact players and often forget they don't just improve exponentially over time. I have no doubt the hope is that his foreign background counteracts that, but its forlorn up forward, IMO.

FWIW Ryder spent the first 50 matches of his career in defense so its not surprising his numbers are lower in terms of goal output.

As I have said I disagree with what I see as your premature conclusion. Its not to say you wont be right with time I just believe more time is needed to find the answer. Another point I would add is you are reading too much into his age for me. If he was a Pods who had a lifetime of footy behind him fine but Cox has surprised people with the speed he has developed at. To say he has finished developing after 11 AFL games is too soon. The jump is to illustrate the unique package of physical attributes he brings to the game. As I said I see him as more than just a tall player without other physical advantages.

As for his numbers not backing things up you ignore the biggest stat forwards have. His goal kicking is as good in his early career as virtually all our current elite KPFs. Only a number but it should be in the mix for considering.

As to Ryders 1st 50 games. Take out his 1st 3 seasons ( 52games) and his goals per game go from 0.7 to 0.9. One number a little behind Blairs average (0.8g/g) the other a little ahead

 

[Gone Critical]

Cox can certainly be a handy role player and provide a good forward option and threat (better than Witts), but there's no doubt that he needs to work on his marking. 2 of those pictures possibly give an insight into why he often nearly marks the footy, but doesn't succeed. Traditionally overhead marks are taken with your thumbs together and both hands behind the footy; Cox however has his left hand in front of the footy, which suggests he snaps or grabs at the ball instead of letting it come to him with soft hands.

Yeah agree with this. He is a work in progress. Has plenty of areas he can improve in and if he does he may be a handy forward/ruckman in our 22. Just too early to write off this possibility.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Well he would be Great Back-Up and/or Do well for the VFL Team

Haha did lol.
He'd be playing firsts.

 

[ClaytonM]

With Cox its all about his size which posters appear fascinated with if you take that advantage away what else has he got?..

And how do you propose opposition take his size away? Chop his legs off?

 

[Quicky]

I guess to work backward we're talking about an 11 game 26yo foreigner. Straight off the bat I have to say that were he 5 years younger this discussion changes completely. Its primarily because forward craft is much more difficult to master than ruck craft with his attributes more suited to the ruck role, IMO. He isn't going to be up against guys that can exploit his weaknesses as easily through the middle.

A quick look at where he's played the majority of his football to date and at VFL he doesn't stand out with his forward craft. He's tall, so what? When you're poor overhead, useless at ground level, can't spread and struggle with leading patterns the starting point as a forward is limited. For every learning he takes in a quality KPD worth their salt will have an answer.

Ball use is crucial to our prospects this year. It helps Cox with the style of forward he is, but we don't have him free wheeling enough to cash in. Until the game structure advances that area is a highly speculative one.

How many of those KPF's were 25 on debut? Apples and apples for mine. Ryder and Hale have something going for them that Cox can't match, mobility. They covered the ground extremely well by position and provide an outlet around the ground which Cox can't based on his marking output which is poor for someone of his size. Look over how those two impact its rarely a case of them standing at the top of the square and having ut kickedon their head like Cox relies on currently.

I would consider Grundy a poor mark and he runs at 3.2 per game v Cox's 2.7. Until Cox can bring it to the same level as the likes of Hale and Ryder its another circuitous discussion. Its also worth considering that his back end to the season was poor in his final 6 games he averaged 6ppg, 6 ho and 1.2 g that sort of productivity falls into line with defensive groups figuring him out and is the sort of impact Witts provides.

I also think its important to remember Witts was used as a full time ruck in more than half of those matches and never received the forward training Cox has. As a full time forward he would add much the same as Cox which is a target for a lower rung team, but a team looking to improve can't afford the loss in mobility I50.

Overall I look at it as what is the most value adding move? Cox will provide the best ruck support and that's where he has the edge. He'll be good for a goal a game or thereabouts, but so will the likes of WHE, White and Blair who are the other options on the edges of that forward mix. Does 20% game time through the middle of the ground trump the x factor of WHE? The mobility of White? The defensive pressure of Blair? What about the other intangibles like the extra ball those three win or the spread they provide from contests. He just can't bring the overall forward game that others can for mine.

Overall I'll live with a structure containing Moore and Cox as the talls, even if neither gets on their bike enough, but it won't work with the three talls because White will get lost and Cox won't have a big enough impact deep. The clubs move to have him as the second ruck so far this pre-season is encouraging because he can be an adequate role player as a crab ruckman that pushes forward intermittently. A crab forward that chops out in the ruck is less of a priority.

FWIW I think anyone that holds the view that he can make it up forward should look at how he impacts in that role. Its all based on his size which isn't sustainable in modern footy. Look at Moore v Ambrose. At this stage Moore impacts through his athleticism alone and doesn't do enough of the hard stuff (100 metre leads) until he brings that smaller bulky KPD's can get him by playing off him and bodying up before he leaps. With Cox its all about his size which posters appear fascinated with if you take that advantage away what else has he got?..

For the long term prosperity of the group Cox as a ruckman is a stronger option and a role he can make an impact in the forward ruck role not so much when there's guys that add more in other areas already in the best 22. Here's to hoping I'm wrong because our club is one forever not learning from its mistakes and QB 2016 should be burned into the memories of everyone that works with and supports our club. Sacrificing mobility for height in modern footy is a risky game!

I also have to note that I find it odd that you take the view that he has an apptitude for ruckwork and that it is coming along only to then present an argument that he can work in another role? Its a very Collingwood mentality that we see one thing and then use that to answer a different question (think White in defence last year).

I can see where you're coming from with your argument and I share similar thoughts. However I think you fail to credit Cox for his acceleration and leap to accompany his size. Those collectively do make Cox a threat deep even if he doesn't yet take enough contested marks.

The question for me comes back to what are our options? I tend to agree that I don't want to play three tall forwards. So it comes down to which of Cox, White or Keeffe is the best candidate to support Moore forward and pinch hit in the ruck. I'm really torn between White and Cox. White has more production and mobility. Cox has more presence, is better in the ruck and has the ability to release Moore further a field.

It's that last point that has me currently leaning towards Cox. I fear Moore will cop too much attention if played deep all year; and that the team will suffer for it. It's a line ball call though.

Who would you play, White or Cox, if it was a choice between them?

 

[60 Yards Out]

Cox can certainly be a handy role player and provide a good forward option and threat (better than Witts), but there's no doubt that he needs to work on his marking. 2 of those pictures possibly give an insight into why he often nearly marks the footy, but doesn't succeed. Traditionally overhead marks are taken with your thumbs together and both hands behind the footy; Cox however has his left hand in front of the footy, which suggests he snaps or grabs at the ball instead of letting it come to him with soft hands.

I think you might be misinterpreting the photos -- they both look to me as if not taken at the moment when the ball enters the hands, but slightly afterward. That's certainly true of the one on the right, which was a very well taken mark in a situation where his body pivoted with momentum, so he looked very different a microsecond after the mark than he did at the moment of the mark. I don't think the photos tell you anything valuable about the position of his hands at the relevant time. Also, if your interpretation was true, it would be a problem that would be pretty easy to fix

 

[Saintly Viewed]

I'm enjoying the discussion of the photo of Cox marking.

That said, the idea that Cox only has size, is to incomplete.

He has phenomenal size!
That's such a massive adavantage and with his leap he at least gives himself a chance at AFL.

If he was say Moore size, I'd agree he'd come And he'd go pretty quickly.

But he's not, he's the tallest player ever with athletic attributes.

He is no star but at lest has upside as he is new to the game and gives it his all.

The real challenge is for him to use his attributes to advantage us, if so, we won more, if not
there are others to take his place

 

[DaVe86]

His height is definitely his biggest asset, but I don't think he has necessarily learnt to maximize it yet.

He gets pushed out of marking contests very easily, and also worked under the ball. He also seems to mis-time his leap a lot in the ruck, or again muscled out of the contest by more physically strong opponents.

If he can learn to stand his ground, or alternatively really build up his core, then he could be unstoppable.

If you look at Sandilands, he is the same height but Sandi doesn't really jump. He basically just gets to the drop of the ball and is impossible to move. Then he raises his arms and no one can get near him.

Cox doesn't hold his ground in contests, so his height advantage is diminished.

Where he is strong though is when he can get a run and jump at the ball. He is very hard to stop in this situation. The issue is that good defenders don't give him this space.

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

Is there any reason your view has any weight?

Is there any reason to act like a w*nker?

 

[Anzacday]

Is there any reason to act like a w*nker?

I don't see any problem with it