Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Ant_]

Given that more and more people are working in the suburbs, and we should be aiming to reduce dependence on the CBD anyway, yeah it actually should be.

The Monash Uni > Clayton section will be popular

 

[volcboy]

Now it’s the ALP about 40 votes ahead in Hawthorn

It has now shot up to ALP 156 votes ahead in Hawthorn, with 88.14% counted. It's a long way back for John Pesutto from there.

 

[volcboy]

It has now shot up to ALP 156 votes ahead in Hawthorn, with 88.14% counted. It's a long way back for John Pesutto from there.

Looking a bit closer, the leap in the ALP vote seems to be on the back of Greens preferences - the Greens primary vote jumped from 17.94% to 18.09% over the last 2 days.

 

[Pessimistic]

I'm a bit torn now. You want as many moderates to survive in the libs, for the 'good'
But Hawthorn connects the red block which runs from Bendigo in NW down to Wonthaggi in SE, from Anglesea in SW up to Whittlesea in the NE
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...-2018-victorian-election-20181124-p50i5d.html

 

[Pessimistic]

Looking a bit closer, the leap in the ALP vote seems to be on the back of Greens preferences - the Greens primary vote jumped from 17.94% to 18.09% over the last 2 days.

Preferences flowing 60:40 to ALP, and as much as 75:25 in some districts

 

[Hawk Dork]

I'm a bit torn now. You want as many moderates to survive in the libs, for the 'good'

They need to learn a hard lesson, no moderates, no votes..... oblivion.
The Turnbulls of this world just make the nut jobs appear sane,let them come out in the open and perish

 

[Crankyhawk]

Matthew Guy did the equivalent of an AFL coach who resigned after overseeing a 10+ goal loss for his team on AFL Grand Final Day, and quit his position, because he reckons he’s about to be sacked by his club’s board of directors and they hold him responsible for the team playing poorly on the biggest day of club history.


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More like a coach who talked the talk pre season then went 0-12 before jumping ahead of the push

 

[Ned_Flanders]

The Monash Uni > Clayton section will be popular

And the Doncaster to Box Hill to Glen Waverley one.

 

[nobbyiscool]

The legislative council results have been crazy to watch this week. I'm not sure anyone completely understands how the counting works (including me), but watching shit change every time new results are released is pretty bonkers. 2 days ago Fiona Patten did a sour grapes interview with the Age and Dan Andrews was offering her a job. According to the first complete count released day she made it - and she didn't even scrape in 5th, she was the 4th in.

Northern Vic has been bananas to watch too. The fact that the Nationals don't look like having a legislative councillor from the very rural Northern Vic electorate is going to be one thing that starts some serious ructions in the Coalition agreement.

 

[Bomberboyokay]

A few things

Melbourne isn't that centralised in terms of healthcare or education, and from an employment perceptive most people do not work in or near the CBD.

Melbourne's property market isn't as bad as Sydney's was and has the market is softer then it will become more affordable, the point I made was it wont be returning to 1980 levels, nor do we want it too because that wouldn't be good for the economy and employment.

People need to look beyond their favorite suburbs and for most people then a unit is the best way for them to buy into their preferred location, or if they want a house then they will have to look beyond their preferred suburb until they have built up the equity to enable them to buy closer to their favorite suburb, alternatively they run the risk of taking on larger debt levels.

By all means increase public housing but the government can only do so much, today town planners are reluctant to build large scale public housing estates due to the poverty trap risk.

Rent controls wont work, the market might have failed on energy but with rentals it remains the best way because a landlord that cannot attract renters will eventually reduce the rent, and mandatory affordable units will most likely just shift the cost of dwellings potentially making them less affordable.

Can the real estate lobby and its defence legion (property owners) stop pretending the definition of favourite, trendy, preferred, etc is anything within 60 minutes of your job? It's condescending and insincere.

 

[Pessimistic]

Making lots of people travel a lot for work is not only bad lifestyle, the community is not efficient therefore not competitive either

 

[Bunk Moreland]

Housing is a social issue before its an economic one. Sort the first and you can move on to the second. Australia have absolutely rooted the first over the past twenty years.

 

[Bombermania]

Can the real estate lobby and its defence legion (property owners) stop pretending the definition of favourite, trendy, preferred, etc is anything within 60 minutes of your job? It's condescending and insincere.

By popular I am referring to suburbs like St Kilda, South Yarra, Fitzroy type suburbs, and when it comes to an hour to work, anyone who uses the tram network knows it can take close to hour to travel 10k to the city on most tram routes, this is why we need better performing public transport. The popular suburbs often come with a premium, so you find neighboring suburbs a little bit cheaper and there are some suburbs where the valuations are hard to justify.

 

[tandino]

I can't see how overseas holidays and chai lattes moves this graph.

 

[DaRick]

The hand-wringing about young people travelling instead of buying houses/raising families ignores the fact that air travel has become cheaper and buying houses/raising families has become more expensive.

 

[Bombermania]

The hand-wringing about young people travelling instead of buying houses/raising families ignores the fact that air travel has become cheaper and buying houses/raising families has become more expensive.

It also ignores commonsense because from a financial planning perceptive its better to have those holidays when you are young rather than when you are retired because you just don't know what your health will be when you are in your 60s or 70s.

 

[Pessimistic]

Housing is a social issue before its an economic one. Sort the first and you can move on to the second. Australia have absolutely rooted the first over the past twenty years.

I was meaning in response to various comments saying houses are affordable if you move further out Wallan or some obscure place.
That may work for a few people, there’s always niche bargains. It’s not going to work for a city with rapidly expanding huge numbers though, that’s my point

 

[Jascave]

Could anyone recall a more poorly run election campaign than what the Liberals did in the recent Victorian state election? The way the Liberals did the election made you think it wasn’t headed up by Victorian state party president Michael Kroger, it was done by a Year 7 kid at high school and he was asked by his teacher to co-ordinate the Coalition election campaign as part of a school assignment.


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[Hoops]

Caulfield has been put back in the 'still to call' box with now only 40 votes in it.

https://www.theage.com.au/politics/...bor-swoops-in-late-surge-20181130-p50jdu.html

 

[Badesumofu]

Caufield now looking like going ALP along with Hawthorn - now leading by a couple of hundred with not much left to count. Incredible if we manage to win those two (not to mention seats like Nepean). More places where as it turns out, real Australians don't live, I guess.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Caufield now looking like going ALP along with Hawthorn - now leading by a couple of hundred with not much left to count. Incredible if we manage to win those two (not to mention seats like Nepean). More places where as it turns out, real Australians don't live, I guess.

They are all just lefty SJW in those seats

 

[Jascave]

It will be interesting to see if the Herald Sun, 3AW and Channel 7 join forces to help the Liberals in 2022 after being on the wrong end of a hiding by Daniel Andrews and Labor.

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[Baltimore Jack]

It will be interesting to see if the Herald Sun, 3AW and Channel 7 join forces to help the Liberals in 2022 after being on the wrong end of a hiding by Daniel Andrews and Labor.

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They actually have very limited impact on the way people vote

 

[Patrick Bullet]

Is there anywhere we can track the upper house counting? I tried Google but it took me to a site that didn't really tell you much

 

[Maggie5]

Is there anywhere we can track the upper house counting? I tried Google but it took me to a site that didn't really tell you much

Last count was Thursday
https://www.pollbludger.net/results/vic2018results.htm
ABC more up to date
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/