Vic Predict the outcome of the 2018 Victorian State Election

[Jascave]

Who'd like to be the one
to write up the review of the Liberals poor performance at the recent state election? And who will cop the blame for the defeat- Matthew Guy; Michael Kroger; Scott Morrison, or will it be Tony Abbott along with Peter Dutton?

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[Vader]

Who'd like to be the one
to write up the review of the Liberals poor performance at the recent state election? And who will cop the blame for the defeat- Matthew Guy; Michael Kroger; Scott Morrison, or will it be Tony Abbott along with Peter Dutton?

Why single any of them out - they all contributed in one way or another?

 

[Patrick Bullet]

Last count was Thursday
https://www.pollbludger.net/results/vic2018results.htm
ABC more up to date
https://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/vic-election-2018/results/

My god, what the hell? "Others" go from 0 (well, 2 really) to 9? Looks like all of that comes at a cost to the Greens and the Libs. It feels like something has to change in how that voting works. That being said, maybe these 9 others will turn out to be more representative of the Victorian people than those Greens and Liberals (I remember being quite impressed by Ricky Muir when he found his feet). Time will tell I suppose...

Edit. PS thanks for the links!

 

[Patrick Bullet]

I can't see how overseas holidays and chai lattes moves this graph.

You're missing something - once you add smashed avos, the stats all become very clear.

 

[NTRabbit]

My god, what the hell? "Others" go from 0 (well, 2 really) to 9? Looks like all of that comes at a cost to the Greens and the Libs. It feels like something has to change in how that voting works. That being said, maybe these 9 others will turn out to be more representative of the Victorian people than those Greens and Liberals (I remember being quite impressed by Ricky Muir when he found his feet). Time will tell I suppose...

Edit. PS thanks for the links!

Preference whisperers getting one last big payday before Victoria follows the rest of he country into dumping group voting tickets

 

[NTRabbit]

Kroger resigned late on a Friday afternoon hoping the media wouldn't notice, and the public would notice even less

 

[Chameleon75]

Put out your Burberry trench coat

 

[Bad Horse]

Of the (small) number of Liberal held seats left, which looks like topping out about 19, we have the following marginals for next time

Ripon 0.1%
Benambra 0.3%
Sandringham 0.6%
Brighton 0.9% and I still cant believe im typing that.
Gembrook 0.9%
Hastings 1.1%
Forest Hill 1.2%
Ferntree Gully 1.7%
Croydon 2.1%
Eildon 2.3%
South West Coast 2.3%
Evelyn 2.6%
Warrandyte 3.9%
Kew 4.6%
Mornington 5.0%

15 of 19 or 20 in marginal territory. 8 of those under 2%, where under normal circumstances you would be looking to target hard at the next election.

they went into this one with only 2 under 2% (ironically, they will probably hold their most marginal in Ripon), and 10 under 5%. They will have more marginals, and massively less seats. Its insane.

Kroger and Guy have presided over the most spectacular omnishambles I've seen, and scarily, it could have been a lot worse. All of the top 8 could easily have gone too.

 

[NSWCROW]

That mutt kroger resigned

 

[Baltimore Jack]

Greens win Brunswick

Greens lead in Prahran

Labor lead in Hawthorn (and pulling away)
Labor lead in Caulfield
Labor lead in Bayswater

Liberals lead in Rippon

 

[Doss]

Greens win Brunswick

Greens lead in Prahran

Labor lead in Hawthorn (and pulling away)
Labor lead in Caulfield
Labor lead in Bayswater

Liberals lead in Rippon

So if those all hold, what will that leave the final seat tally as? I've lost track now.

 

[Baltimore Jack]

So if those all hold, what will that leave the final seat tally as? I've lost track now.

It think it's looking like (might need to do a final fact check)
ALP 56
LNP 27
Green 2
Ind 3

 

[Adz]

Prahran Greens are third. Labor will claim that.

 

[Pessimistic]

Would I be right saying the electorate has grown almost 15% since the 2014 election

 

[mighty tiges]

Bayswater today given as a Labor gain.
Mildura lost by Nats to independent Ali Cupper.

Only 5 more seats remain in doubt:
Benambra .... Libs ahead 50.3% ...... 86.2% counted
Caulfield ...... Libs ahead 50.4% ...... 83.9% counted (0.6% jump back to Libs today)
Hawthorn ..... ALP ahead 50.2% ...... 90.7% counted
Ripon ........... Libs ahead 50.1% ...... 91.2% counted
Prahran ........ Too close to call b/w ALP & Greens. It will depend on minors' preference flows (see below).


So the predicted tally is currently:
ALP 55 or 56
LNP 27 (Lib 21, Nat 6)
Greens 2 or 3
Rural Indies 3

Prahran Greens are third. Labor will claim that.

Only 368 votes between Labor and Greens in race for 2nd spot. It's going to depend on who ends up second after the minor parties' preferences are distributed.

HTV card preferences:
DLP (930 votes) -> Liberal
Animal Justice (896) -> Greens.
Reason party (825) -> Labor.
Sustainable Aust. (466) .... no preference.
Aussie Battler (155) ...... no preference.
Independent (126) ...... no preference.

 

[Jascave]

Who won the seat of Sandringham?


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[eth-dog]

Who won the seat of Sandringham?


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LNP

 

[Hornberger]

Would I be right saying the electorate has grown almost 15% since the 2014 election

9%, 3.8 million to 4.1 million.

 

[Hornberger]

The Liberal's have some substantial demographic problems in Victoria.

• The 55 Labor held districts will on average have 3,000 more electors than the 27 held LNP districts (49,980 to 46,797).
• Of the 10 fastest growing districts over the past 4 years, 9 are held by Labor and 1 by the Greens (Brunswick).
• Of the 30 districts with the lowest ratio of electors to population (per 2016 census), 1 is held by the Greens (Melbourne at no. 1), 1 is held by the Liberals (Forest Hill at no. 25) and the remaining 28 are held by Labor.

Labor (and Green) districts are larger, have been growing quicker and are likely to continue to grow quicker than Liberal held districts.

 

[Bombermania]

The Liberal's have some substantial demographic problems in Victoria.

• The 55 Labor held districts will on average have 3,000 more electors than the 27 held LNP districts (49,980 to 46,797).
• Of the 10 fastest growing districts over the past 4 years, 9 are held by Labor and 1 by the Greens (Brunswick).
• Of the 30 districts with the lowest ratio of electors to population (per 2016 census), 1 is held by the Greens (Melbourne at no. 1), 1 is held by the Liberals (Forest Hill at no. 25) and the remaining 28 are held by Labor.

Labor (and Green) districts are larger, have been growing quicker and are likely to continue to grow quicker than Liberal held districts.

No doubt the next Victorian redistribution will benefit the ALP however the Liberals problem isn't demographics, instead their problem is policy.

 

[Hornberger]

No doubt the next Victorian redistribution will benefit the ALP however the Liberals problem isn't demographics, instead their problem is policy.

I would say they have both a demographics and a policy problem.

 

[Bombermania]

I would say they have both a demographics and a policy problem.

If the policies were any good then they should be winning elections, if we went purely on demographics then they favor the Liberals

The ALP openly say they struggle where property prices are above $750k, and union membership has never been lower, with professionals and small business numbers at record levels and growing. However the Liberals are increasingly on the nose.

 

[Jascave]

LNP

The Coalition could count themselves very lucky to win the seat of Sandringham, because at one stage it looked like it would go to Labor.

If Michael O'Brien (as expected) becomes the new Opposition Leader, he will have his work cut out for him. It will be at least 2-3 terms before the elecotrate could consider giving the Coalition another shot at government.

 

[eth-dog]

The Coalition could count themselves very lucky to win the seat of Sandringham, because at one stage it looked like it would go to Labor.

If Michael O'Brien (as expected) becomes the new Opposition Leader, he will have his work cut out for him. It will be at least 2-3 terms before the elecotrate could consider giving the Coalition another shot at government.

If Pesutto gets up in Hawthorne I suspect he'll get it, but at this stage it looks like he'll lose by like half a percent

 

[Pessimistic]

If the policies were any good then they should be winning elections, if we went purely on demographics then they favor the Liberals

The ALP openly say they struggle where property prices are above $750k, and union membership has never been lower, with professionals and small business numbers at record levels and growing. However the Liberals are increasingly on the nose.

Professionals aren’t automatic liberals. And most of them have a professional association