NSW Premier "iCare" Perrottet and the Libs' Poison Chalice

[Crankyhawk]

The let it rip crowd won. Numbers will soon be through the roof and testing will completely fail. Just have to hope now that fatalities stay low. A lot riding on that.

i suppose the long term view is that let it rip was always going to happen at some point when lockdowns are no longer an option and travel and socialisation opens up. we hope that vaccination + omicron makes this similar to a "bad flu season" (think swine flu of 2009) in terms of illness and death going forward

 

[jerry springer]

yeah, 11000 cases in nsw today
makes that doherty modelling not so alarmist now..

fortunately hospitalisations while rising are not rising as fast/ in proportion to case number rise

Let's wait for the 3 week lag since this started booming about a week ago. Hopefully it follows the south African model and we can ride this out by end of Jan

 

[madmug]

I bet he isnt out and about and doesnt get it.

We all will as it becomes endemic.

A sensible step wise plan, opening up with mask mandate until into the new year would have been simple enough.

But no, ParOtits just prays.

 

[madmug]

They are our friends and family. No they can stay. F*** you for wanting to deny us any further time apart. I've already lost some to death during this period. How cruel can you be?

Queenslanders are cruel selfish people.

Generalising doesn't help the matter.

Some wanted to keep the borders shut because of health reasons of their own. Thats understandable.

 

[Gralin]

*sigh*

150,000 with 5 sample composites is 30,000 tests

if all 6,000 positives are in individual composite samples, thats 60,000 tests in total now.

means you are doing 2.5 times fewer tests than by not doing composites

and when we had 1k cases a day it was 35k tests

you can see how the positive rate going up can very quickly put increased load on the system

a month ago NSW had a positive rate of 0.5% meaning any individual batch had a 2.5% chance of needing to be reprocessed

today they have a 7% positive rate meaning any individual batch has a 35% chance of needing to be reprocessed

its a massive change in the amount of work required to process the same amount of tests and thats excluding the additional work a positive case has on the whole process re tracking, confirming notifying etc

the point is we've probably passed the limit to which we can scale already and its only going to get worse as the rate goes up

 

[Gralin]

and thats not to say they should stop batching but it becomes less effective with more positive results

 

[Ghost Patrol]

 

[HairyO]

i suppose the long term view is that let it rip was always going to happen at some point when lockdowns are no longer an option and travel and socialisation opens up. we hope that vaccination + omicron makes this similar to a "bad flu season" (think swine flu of 2009) in terms of illness and death going forward

Opening it up to unvaccinated is the biggest issue as they are the majority of the hospitalisations despite 95% of us being vaccinated.

At the current rate of increase in hospitalisations we are going to hit the wall soon and will have to restrict non urgent surgeries and treatments, punishing those who have done the right thing.

Gladys had us on the right track and Perrottet has just ignored it all and may end up walking us back to more restrictions than if we had just kept going with the sensible approach.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

and when we had 1k cases a day it was 35k tests

you can see how the positive rate going up can very quickly put increased load on the system

a month ago NSW had a positive rate of 0.5% meaning any individual batch had a 2.5% chance of needing to be reprocessed

today they have a 7% positive rate meaning any individual batch has a 35% chance of needing to be reprocessed

its a massive change in the amount of work required to process the same amount of tests and thats excluding the additional work a positive case has on the whole process re tracking, confirming notifying etc

the point is we've probably passed the limit to which we can scale already and its only going to get worse as the rate goes up

the point is batch testing works - it reduces the number of tests needed absolutely

and again, for the 5th time - BUY MORE ****ING MACHINES AND STOP WITH GOD DAMN ****ING BAND AIDS. THIS ISSUE IS NOT GOING AWAY AND IT NEEDS A LONG TERM ****ING SOLUTION

 

[Seeds]

View attachment 1302968

Whats your solution to this problem?

 

[Gralin]

the point is batch testing works - it reduces the number of tests needed absolutely

and again, for the 5th time - BUY MORE ******* MACHINES AND STOP WITH GOD DAMN ******* BAND AIDS. THIS ISSUE IS NOT GOING AWAY AND IT NEEDS A LONG TERM ******* SOLUTION

more machines also need more staff, maybe if they'd started working on this 18 months ago it would have helped

nobody is saying batch testing doesn't work, people are saying the conditions for batch testing are no longer optimal and the system cannot cope

this isn't disagreeing with you that more money needs to be invested but pouring money into private pathology coffers to solve an issue doesn't tend to really solve it either

 

[Gralin]

View attachment 1302968

milder is the new comorbidities

 

[Ned_Flanders]

more machines also need more staff, maybe if they'd started working on this 18 months ago it would have helped

nobody is saying batch testing doesn't work, people are saying the conditions for batch testing are no longer optimal and the system cannot cope

this isn't disagreeing with you that more money needs to be invested but pouring money into private pathology coffers to solve an issue doesn't tend to really solve it either

there is no shortage of lab techs. its basically and entry level gig, and between the food and health industries there are bucket loads of them (and a lot work on contract)

the bottleneck for this is always equipment. and the sooner its ordered the better

you dont just shrug and lower the bar as you are suggesting

 

[Seeds]

Nah, you could have gone to see them. But you didn't want to quarantine on return.

Selfish Seeds. You live in Queensland yeah?

Yeah cos you can just magically stop working and travel as soon as borders open And take kids out of school.

Had 5 flights booked and leave approved 5 times. 3 to travel down there. 2 to fly family up here. 4 were cancelled before we could take them due to covid. 1 was made but then had to go home the very next day as a hot spot was declared In queensland.

i did however make one trip that was booked at the last minute. For a funeral. Could get immediate leave approve for that.

 

[Gralin]

there is no shortage of lab techs. its basically and entry level gig, and between the food and health industries there are bucket loads of them (and a lot work on contract)

the bottleneck for this is always equipment. and the sooner its ordered the better

you dont just shrug and lower the bar as you are suggesting

I'm not suggesting that
We should have a nationally run and funded testing system by now with contribution from the states, not reliant on private companies that don't do weekend or public holidays and have to maintain their profit margins

 

[madmug]

View attachment 1302968

This. Also I wonder what the chances of new variants emerging. As vaccinations & the exposure rates go up, one hopes we (the world) will be able to better resist any new strains.

A place which may yet be problematic in developing new strains, is probably China.

SinoVax is next to useless in the face of this strain. The CCP keeps locking down but surely that can't last forever. I think they could yet be in a world of pain with mass outbreaks quite likely to occur at some stage.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

I'm not suggesting that
We should have a nationally run and funded testing system by now with contribution from the states, not reliant on private companies that don't do weekend or public holidays and have to maintain their profit margins

they cant, its too complex

are you nationalizing multinational owned labs, AU owned ones, and ones owned by other govts/agencies?

are you taking over all labs with PCR machines, or only labs with NATA accreditation for specific tests?

are you taking over labs that are independent labs, or uni research ones, ones in manufacturing sites, ones in hospitals and clinics, or even ones in remote labs?

are you naitionalizing only health labs, or also food labs who have the same PCR equipment?


FWIW this has one easy workaround. Baseball bat your PCR machines, and the govt cannot nationalize you.


We have outsourced testing for health, food, mining, and the chemical sectors decades ago. we cannot and should not unscramble that egg. What we need to do is:

1) issue contracts which require testing to be managed 24/7 365

2) sliding scale of payments to incentivize volume and TAT

3) incentives for capital increases

4) make it a national procurement contact the states agree to work under (samples are crossing borders for testing, so this does need a national solution)

 

[Gralin]

they cant, its too complex

are you nationalizing multinational owned labs, AU owned ones, and ones owned by other govts/agencies?

are you taking over all labs with PCR machines, or only labs with NATA accreditation for specific tests?

are you taking over labs that are independent labs, or uni research ones, ones in manufacturing sites, ones in hospitals and clinics, or even ones in remote labs?

are you naitionalizing only health labs, or also food labs who have the same PCR equipment?


FWIW this has one easy workaround. Baseball bat your PCR machines, and the govt cannot nationalize you.


We have outsourced testing for health, food, mining, and the chemical sectors decades ago. we cannot and should not unscramble that egg. What we need to do is:

1) issue contracts which require testing to be managed 24/7 365

2) sliding scale of payments to incentivize volume and TAT

3) incentives for capital increases

4) make it a national procurement contact the states agree to work under (samples are crossing borders for testing, so this does need a national solution)

you stand to profit from your suggestions?

because it sounds like you stand to profit from yours and lose out from mine

can't unscramble the egg is always the argument of the status quo, give me more money to fix the problem giving me money didnt fix already

 

[Ned_Flanders]

you stand to profit from your suggestions?

because it sounds like you stand to profit from yours and lose out from mine

can't unscramble the egg is always the argument of the status quo, give me more money to fix the problem giving me money didnt fix already

nope. I dont work for a laboratory, but I know the sector from a past life. labs have one job, and its to do tests that make them money. remove that, they will stop doing the tests

 

[Gralin]

4) make it a national procurement contact the states agree to work under (samples are crossing borders for testing, so this does need a national solution)

way to much every state for themselves while the feds sit there and say not our problem so yeah we need this but we won't get it with the current feds

 

[Ghost Patrol]

These numbers are from tests before Xmas...

 

[Crankyhawk]

These numbers are from tests before Xmas...

So maybe it’s staff and labs reopening processing backlog- will see what tomorrow nsw numbers are

 

[Dogs_R_Us]

more machines also need more staff, maybe if they'd started working on this 18 months ago it would have helped

nobody is saying batch testing doesn't work, people are saying the conditions for batch testing are no longer optimal and the system cannot cope

this isn't disagreeing with you that more money needs to be invested but pouring money into private pathology coffers to solve an issue doesn't tend to really solve it either

What should they have done 18 months ago, that could have been foreseen? Which countries have done better and got the jump on testing, labs, staff and equipment? Any? 18 months ago everyone assumed it would all be over by 2021. Was the current scenario predicted then? All the armchair experts are quick with criticism and suggestions as if it's so obvious and easy if only the guvment would get off their arses.

 

[Ned_Flanders]

What should they have done 18 months ago, that could have been foreseen? Which countries have done better and got the jump on testing, labs, staff and equipment? Any? 18 months ago everyone assumed it would all be over by 2021. Was the current scenario predicted then? All the armchair experts are quick with criticism and suggestions as if it's so obvious and easy if only the guvment would get off their arses.

Very few people were saying this was a one year virus. FFS vaccine development timelines alone made that a fiction

 

[madmug]

What should they have done 18 months ago, that could have been foreseen? Which countries have done better and got the jump on testing, labs, staff and equipment? Any? 18 months ago everyone assumed it would all be over by 2021. Was the current scenario predicted then? All the armchair experts are quick with criticism and suggestions as if it's so obvious and easy if only the guvment would get off their arses.

Suggestions/criticisms?

They should have gotten the vaccines in quicker. We were supposed to be 'at the front of the queue' after all.

Also should have started some proper quarantine facilities as were requested by all & sundry not associated with the Scumo regime. ie sensible people.

Also should have worked with the states instead of trying to double talk everything just play politics & suck up to the libertarian, antivax nufties.

So no, he didn't have to get off his arse, just should have got his hand of his d%^k a lot earlier in the piece.

So why is Scumo so slow to act? Bushfires, Pandemics? I just hope we don't have a war. He'd only act if the enemy knocked on his door!!