Preview QF1 Geelong v Collingwood Sat Sept 3 2022, 435pm @ MCG

[Jhye Clark 13]

To any Collingwood fans in here, this was all hopium for Geelong fans. He has badly torn his hammy and will be out for the QF, my dads mates uncles carpet overheard him talking about it at the local chippy and he is likely to miss preseason as well.

Who gives a **** about Collingwood fans. I'm still astounded people read opposition preview threads. What are they going to achieve?

I'm telling you now if we'd have won 6 close games against teams in the bottom half of the table in the last 8 weeks people would be using that as an excuse as to why we won't win the QF final. The shoes on the other foot and people suggest if it's close the Pies will run over the top of us. Spare me.

The facts are staring people in the face ... We finished on top by two games and ended the season with a 13 game winning streak. We aren't Nth Melbourne, Port, Essendon, GC, Carlton or the other shit truck of a side Collingwood scraped home against.

We'll win this and win it well.

 

[Hamingja]

Cameron playing is especially important against the Pies. They gave up about 15 shots to Curnow and McKay on the weekend when you add in the OOFs and the one Curnow didn't make the distance on from 30m out. If they can't contain them then they have no hope against Hawkins and Cameron. If it is only Hawkins they can use Moore as a loose and double team him. Massive to the outcome of the game.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

Cameron playing is especially important against the Pies. They gave up about 15 shots to Curnow and McKay on the weekend when you add in the OOFs and the one Curnow didn't make the distance on from 30m out. If they can't contain them then they have no hope against Hawkins and Cameron. If it is only Hawkins they can use Moore as a loose and double team him. Massive to the outcome of the game.

Cameron's record against them is amazing. He kicked 9 against them one game from memory.

 

[Jumping Jack]

We're Cat's supporters and we have some recent finals series scars, so we'll easily come up with reasons "why not".

Those feelings should be well and truly overshadowed by the "why" we'll beat Collingwood. Statistics don't lie, and our form line and the way we're beating teams is not really something that someone with a rational mindset can debate. I'm not sure why I'm quoting David King, but he did say something recently that has stuck with me. Something along the lines of Geelong being ranked #1 in every key statistic that generally points to premiership winners ..... and there needing to be a "freak event" for Geelong not to win the premiership.

Can Collingwood beat Geelong? - yes it's possible based on it being a two horse race
Will Collingwood beat Geelong? - no it's improbable based purely on all key statistical pointers

The difference in all the key statistical measures between now and the last time we played them is off the charts.

 

[Jumping Jack]

Found the quote for reference.....................

King spoke both today and earlier in the week that it will take a freak event to stop the Cats, and again made mention of a key stat that points to that.

“They are the first team in 15 years to be ranked number one in terms of turning a possession into a score and number one in ensuring the opposition do not turn their possessions into scores,” he said further.

“We’ve never seen that for 15 years. The last team to do it was them in 2007.

“It’s a remarkable profile and a profile that should win the flag.”

 

[Hamingja]

In my mind the only team that can beat us are Melbourne, which I said in the finals thread before their Brisbane game. Given our overall finals record it is hard to go into any QF, PF or GF with confidence however.

 

[Scottland2007]

Sold out. If you don’t have tickets you can stop hitting “refresh”…….


If a week is a long time in footy than a fortnight is an eternity

 

[Finknottle]

Rohan should be played in the first final. He has a very poor history in finals but he compliments our forward structure. He adds speed, tackling pressure, and is a great set shot at goal. If he has a really poor game then you'd want to scratch him for the remaining matches. I think he'll be fine. Much easier for him to get off the chain when the defence already has Tomahawk, Cameron and Stengle to worry about.

 

[fpm84]

 

[Munich]

Sold out. If you don’t have tickets you can stop hitting “refresh”…….


If a week is a long time in footy than a fortnight is an eternityView attachment 1488325

"Sold out" means exactly how many seats are left?

 

[PzBlinky]

Rohan should be played in the first final. He has a very poor history in finals but he compliments our forward structure. He adds speed, tackling pressure, and is a great set shot at goal. If he has a really poor game then you'd want to scratch him for the remaining matches. I think he'll be fine. Much easier for him to get off the chain when the defence already has Tomahawk, Cameron and Stengle to worry about.

I agree. While he has a history of going missing, many of the finals he's played for us haven't exactly seen competitive performances from most of our team. He might be a bit of a downhill skiier (e.g. 2.2 in last year's semi against GWS or 3.1 in the 2020 PF) but if we have something like parity throughout the field, he can prove useful with his pressure, speed, and goal-kicking.

If we're getting smashed, sure, he'll go missing... but like the past performances, he won't be the only or main reason we lost.

 

[BotsMaster]

I’m getting flashbacks of 2019 QF1

That the one where we dropped Stanley because it was going to rain?

 

[Munich]

That the one where we dropped Stanley because it was going to rain?

Yes. What a call .

Still, it was only a 10 point margin in the end.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I agree. While he has a history of going missing, many of the finals he's played for us haven't exactly seen competitive performances from most of our team. He might be a bit of a downhill skiier (e.g. 2.2 in last year's semi against GWS or 3.1 in the 2020 PF) but if we have something like parity throughout the field, he can prove useful with his pressure, speed, and goal-kicking.

If we're getting smashed, sure, he'll go missing... but like the past performances, he won't be the only or main reason we lost.

It's another one of those things the sheep thrive on. He plays in the hardest position on the ground to be consistent in.

 

[Cataholic]

Am I the only one sensing all the media focus is on Collingwood, and its 'fairy tale'?

If so, a good thing I reckon. It puts the considerable weight of expectation on them.

 

[Munich]

Am I the only one sensing all the media focus is on Collingwood, and its 'fairy tale'?

If so, a good thing I reckon. It puts the considerable weight of expectation on them.

Isn't it always in recent times? The oppo I mean.

 

[Cataholic]

Isn't it always in recent times? The oppo I mean.

Yeah, fair call.

 

[GeelongFTW]

I'm impressed with the clubs continued updates on Stanley's 'injury'

 

[Grimoz]

Isn't it always in recent times? The oppo I mean.

Wait for that tide to turn next week when our finals fragility comes back into question, we wont stand a chance in the eyes of the footy world come Saturday arvo.

 

[Mr Meow]

Few thoughts on the game/this season:

In these preview threads I've copped flak at times for being cocky, arrogant or dismissive of opponents as far back as the first Bulldogs game.

From the Geelong side of things, it's as simple as me really buying into what this group has been building, especially as the winning streak has grown. Chiefly the importance of new personnel, game plan changes and improvement in individual player performance.

As far as our opponents, they've largely been middling teams with serious flaws that can be exposed by a quality outfit. The exception perhaps being Melbourne, but they were patchy in form and it was being played in Geelong. A couple of scares aside, I think that reality has played out.

There seems to be complete belief and unity within the team this year, with things feeling refreshed to shake off what was perhaps a stale feel by the end of last season. It doesn't seem like players are out of form or burnt out, with careful management of players resembling some of our more successful years.

As for this game, it's a final against an MCG tenant who have a hell of a lot of momentum. That makes it a danger game and a hoodoo has to be shaken off for at least half of the squad. However I rate this Collingwood outfit below the 2019 Collingwood, 2017 Richmond and 2019 Richmond teams that defeated us at MCG finals. I rate this Geelong side comfortably above those losing ones too, with a gameplan and mix of talents that I see holding up in finals compared to those that seemed ill-fit for September (to a degree). A lot of the "regulars" are back to their 2020 form rather than their underwhelming 2021 seasons. In fact, there's a case that the majority of our side minus Sel/Danger are in career-best form.

Collingwood's defence can be exposed and this is the best Geelong forward line since our last premiership. The midfield might not have the top line talent it has in the past but there is depth and balance there. The backline remains settled and steady without the "too old, too slow" feel of a few in Scott's era.

The main danger I anticipate is Collingwood's sometimes scary clinical edge and ability to turn that into rapid succession of goals. Juxtaposed against Geelong's wastefulness, especially from set shots, then jitters could set in and we could make this much more difficult than it needs to be.

For all that said, I think Collingwood will put in a spirited showing but Geelong run out 4-5 goal winners.

 

[Vdubs]

Cameron playing is especially important against the Pies. They gave up about 15 shots to Curnow and McKay on the weekend when you add in the OOFs and the one Curnow didn't make the distance on from 30m out. If they can't contain them then they have no hope against Hawkins and Cameron. If it is only Hawkins they can use Moore as a loose and double team him. Massive to the outcome of the game.

And considering how he beat the Pies off his own boot earlier this year. JC is responsible for a lot of our improvement this year.
Without him----not worth considering that option.

 

[Mr Meow]

And considering how he beat the Pies off his own boot earlier this year. JC is responsible for a lot of our improvement this year.
Without him----not worth considering that option.

While Cameron has been huge, take him out and this is still the best support for Hawkins of any Geelong side since 2011. Miers has hit a great run of form, Stengle has somehow added an AA level small, Close is the ultimate creator/speedster, Rohan's X factor works better among a more dynamic group, Touhy or Smith add valuable contributions up there and Henry is a very handy utility.

Thus I consider the option and while it is imperfect, it remains strong.

 

[Vdubs]

While Cameron has been huge, take him out and this is still the best support for Hawkins of any Geelong side since 2011. Miers has hit a great run of form, Stengle has somehow added an AA level small, Close is the ultimate creator/speedster, Rohan's X factor works better among a more dynamic group, Touhy or Smith add valuable contributions up there and Henry is a very handy utility.

Thus I consider the option and while it is imperfect, it remains strong.

I was referring to the comments by JC himself that he was already running and going really well.
I probably should consider life without him v Pies, but in some ways those guys you noted probably walk taller when JC is in the team, as he demands and attracts so much attention.

 

[Mr Meow]

I was referring to the comments by JC himself that he was already running and going really well.
I probably should consider life without him v Pies, but in some ways those guys you noted probably walk taller when JC is in the team, as he demands and attracts so much attention.

Oddly I look at it in the opposite manner. 4 or 5 other players stepping up and demanding attention will naturally free up your most dangerous players - which is why an aging Hawkins statistically has had one of his strongest years. Rather than one player suddenly bringing out the improvement of a whole forward group. The credit goes to those players I mentioned and the coaches for organising it in such a way. It no longer feels like one or two players carries that whole forward line.

 

[Vdubs]

Oddly I look at it in the opposite manner. 4 or 5 other players stepping up and demanding attention will naturally free up your most dangerous players - which is why an aging Hawkins statistically has had one of his strongest years. Rather than one player suddenly bringing out the improvement of a whole forward group. The credit goes to those players I mentioned and the coaches for organising it in such a way. It no longer feels like one or two players carries that whole forward line.

Fair points.
We are in good shape.