Preview Rd 14 Bye week - time to look ahead.

[dazbroncos]

Its Bye week.

And we all know how well we roll after the bye.
But thats for next week.

This week, lets look way ahead to next year.

At the turn in the 2024 season, we are middle of the road after a roaring start.

Rather than picking where we will finish, lets look at

Who will still have a number in 2025,
Who has a number and gets more games
Whom has a number and will be looking at a new name under it on the locker.


Its all just speculation and im not including FA or trades - going off the list we have now.

EG: -

Stil has a number (locked into 23)
Bruhn
Cameron
Kolo
Holmes
Bowes
SDK
Stengle
Dempsey
Guthrie
Atkins
Miers
PFD
Ollie Henry
Jack Henry

38

Jack Henry

Age

26

Ht

192cm

Wt

96kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.3

3star

K

7.3

3star

HB

2.9

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.2

4star

MG

142.6

2star

D

8.6

2star

K

6.7

3star

HB

1.9

1star

M

3.9

4star

T

2.1

3star

MG

142.6

3star

D

9.6

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.6

3star

M

3.6

4star

T

2.0

4star

Zuthrie
MOC
Stewy
Close
Blitz





Has number and will have new name on it in 2025
Stanley
Touhy
Duncan
Hawkins.
Hardie.
Willis
Rohan
Bews

That 8 list spots

Has number and getting more games:
Mannagh
Neale
Clohesy
Parfitt
Humphries
Edwards
Clark
Conway
Knevitt
COS
Stevens
Humphries
Mullin



VFL
Foster
Wiltshire
Murdoch
Furphy
Jeka


Just shows how much experience we are losing this year alone.

Makes sense as to why we are middle of the road.
Things to build with but needs more to be Top 4 team again.

GO Catters

 

[cats_09]

Good thinking boss - I was thinking of starting a similar thread but then got invested in my Zelda game

 

[Art Vandelay_]

I'd be looking at 6 minimum list changes. More likely 8-9.
How they're replaced is the conundrum.

Hawkins, Stanley, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan (all ret.), Bews*, Jeka, Murdoch, Parfitt (all delisted).
Would keep Willis and Hardie 1 more year. 2025 make or break.

Ditto Neale without Hawkins in the way. 2025 is make or break or we may need to search for a tall forward from elsewhere.

*Suspect if we delist Bews he will think he has more to offer and try for another club as opposed to the rest of the 10+ year vets who will all likely retire.

 

[allrighty]

I'd be looking at 6 minimum list changes. More likely 8-9.
How they're replaced is the conundrum.

Hawkins, Stanley, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan (all ret.), Bews*, Jeka, Murdoch, Parfitt (all delisted).
Would keep Willis and Hardie 1 more year. 2025 make or break.

Ditto Neale without Hawkins in the way. 2025 is make or break or we may need to search for a tall forward from elsewhere.

*Suspect if we delist Bews he will think he has more to offer and try for another club as opposed to the rest of the 10+ year vets who will all likely retire.

What I have seen of Jeka and Murdoch they have looked OK to me. Not sure about Hardie. If he's to be retained you'd reckon they give him an AFL game or three to have a look at him.

 

[catsfootyfan89]

It's starting to feel like the longer you successfully thread the needle of equalisation defiance, the steeper the cliff can be if you get unlucky with your draft picks.

Is Geelong going to remain a destination club as we quietly slide down the ladder?

Right now, I'm not sure Thuoy, Duncan and Hawkins are breaking even, let alone playing well.

With Stewart and Paddy heading out the door soon, we're going to see a severe lack of seniority in the side to guide the young guys.

Not super relevant to this thread, but with every year passing, I've lamented the loss of Tim Kelly

11

Tim Kelly

Age

30

Ht

184cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

23.6

5star

K

13.5

5star

HB

10.1

5star

M

3.4

3star

T

4.0

5star

CL

4.9

5star

D

19.9

5star

K

12.3

5star

HB

7.6

4star

M

3.1

3star

T

4.7

5star

CL

3.6

4star

D

21.6

5star

K

10.4

4star

HB

11.2

5star

M

2.8

3star

T

3.8

5star

CL

3.8

5star

more and more.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I'd be looking at 6 minimum list changes. More likely 8-9.
How they're replaced is the conundrum.

Hawkins, Stanley, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan (all ret.), Bews*, Jeka, Murdoch, Parfitt (all delisted).
Would keep Willis and Hardie 1 more year. 2025 make or break.

Ditto Neale without Hawkins in the way. 2025 is make or break or we may need to search for a tall forward from elsewhere.

*Suspect if we delist Bews he will think he has more to offer and try for another club as opposed to the rest of the 10+ year vets who will all likely retire.

I agree with all those going however i think the club will delist hardie too.
Big turnover.

Next year is big for neale both in terms of whether edwards goes past him or not and also whether edwards wants back to wa or not.

We will need some FAs and trades to fill spots.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Going through our OOC players my most interesting thoughts are on some established names.

Cam Guthrie
Guthrie played mostly half back in his return match before moving into the middle where he was largely ineffective and strained his Achilles in his 4th match back.
If he's going to be ineffective and his body won't hold up, then does he need to play HBF from here on?

This is the first tension point for 2025. We need to manage him into the same position where we need to be giving games to Mullin and Humphries in. The manage in position is the same as the manage out position

Patrick Dangerfield
His best work is still breathtaking, but even in his last match you could see he's being deployed forward for longer. Midfield will tear his body to shreds for any sustained period.

This is the second tension point. The only position he can likely take is Henry's. He can be effective there but we also need to invest in Henry.

Tyson Stengle
Offers for this guy could, and should, be huge. He owes us nothing and needs to catch up on earnings. Without him we'd be out of the 8 in my opinion.

The third tension point is where do we draw the line on dollars here? He is worth whatever money is thrown at him, but need to be using cash to throw at a trade in mid. What if the same dollars as tyson stengle

18

Tyson Stengle

Age

26

Ht

175cm

Wt

71kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.3

2star

K

5.8

2star

HB

3.5

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.4

4star

G

1.1

4star

D

10.3

3star

K

5.3

2star

HB

5.0

3star

M

1.3

1star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.5

4star

D

8.8

3star

K

5.6

3star

HB

3.2

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.6

5star

and Brandon Parfitt gave you bailey smith

6

Bailey Smith

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

and Shaun Mannagh?

Those are my big 3 talking points and I don't have an answer for any of them.


On the other OOC players they're mostly easy and it's a more boring list. Status taken from footywire so if it's wrong don't @ me

I'll miss you:
Hawkins
Duncan
Tuohy
Bews
Parfitt
Rohan
Stanley

Thanks for coming but it didn't work out:
Foster
Hardie

One more year
Jeka
Murdoch
Willis

Multiple years
J Henry
Bowes
Kolo
O Henry
Clohesy

That's 9 out, possibly 10 if Stengle walks. Near a quarter of the list and 8-9 are senior spots. A lot of the senior guys seem to have understudies too though. So the baton passes:

Hawkins > Neale
Duncan > Bowes *
Tuohy > Knevitt
Bews > Mullin
Parfitt > Bruhn *
Rohan > Henry
Stanley > Conway

Bowes and Bruhn asterisk because they're already b22 mids.

This means that we need to add 2x midfielders. If we want to improve they need to be better than Bruhn and Bowes. Smith this year is my hope, the other position I'll be looking for a step up from existing rotations.

 

[numbwombat]

I don’t follow the VFL enough to speculate on guys in the seconds.

Of the 30+ guys I think
Gone: Hawk, Stanley, Bews, Tuohy
50/50: Duncan, Rohan
Chance to retire: Danger, Cuthrie, Blitz

I think the biggest danger ATM isn’t missing finals or not having enough talent, but doing a Norf sometime 2025-2027 and finding ourselves ruining pretty good kids because they’re getting bashed around without enough 25-30yos.
I think for this reason (need for mature players) Mannagh will play most games next year, Hardie and Parfitt (who I rated but think his recent games very disappointing) are a chance to be retained, Atkins and Bowes will be locked in best 22.

This year I think debuts or more games for Knevitt, Hardie, Stevens, Humphries, etc only happen due to injuries/management only. We’ll try to wring every game we can out of the senior players (and TBF I agree that we’re just a Dangerfield and Cuthrie away from being a real flag chance).

 

[foxdog50]

I'm a big advocate in Hardie.. I never said he can be the difference in us becoming a contender, his deservesa chance to be playing... But if he isn't getting a game by now, there is no way he be on our list next season

 

[Catman]

I fear Duncan will get another year, if he wants it, so the club can carry him to 300 games, as he will fall just short this year.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Going through our OOC players my most interesting thoughts are on some established names.

Cam Guthrie
Guthrie played mostly half back in his return match before moving into the middle where he was largely ineffective and strained his Achilles in his 4th match back.
If he's going to be ineffective and his body won't hold up, then does he need to play HBF from here on?

This is the first tension point for 2025. We need to manage him into the same position where we need to be giving games to Mullin and Humphries in. The manage in position is the same as the manage out position

Patrick Dangerfield
His best work is still breathtaking, but even in his last match you could see he's being deployed forward for longer. Midfield will tear his body to shreds for any sustained period.

This is the second tension point. The only position he can likely take is Henry's. He can be effective there but we also need to invest in Henry.

Tyson Stengle
Offers for this guy could, and should, be huge. He owes us nothing and needs to catch up on earnings. Without him we'd be out of the 8 in my opinion.

The third tension point is where do we draw the line on dollars here? He is worth whatever money is thrown at him, but need to be using cash to throw at a trade in mid. What if the same dollars as tyson stengle and Brandon Parfitt gave you bailey smith and Shaun Mannagh?

Those are my big 3 talking points and I don't have an answer for any of them.


On the other OOC players they're mostly easy and it's a more boring list. Status taken from footywire so if it's wrong don't @ me

I'll miss you:
Hawkins
Duncan
Tuohy
Bews
Parfitt
Rohan
Stanley

Thanks for coming but it didn't work out:
Foster
Hardie

One more year
Jeka
Murdoch
Willis

Multiple years
J Henry
Bowes
Kolo
O Henry
Clohesy

That's 9 out, possibly 10 if Stengle walks. Near a quarter of the list and 8-9 are senior spots. A lot of the senior guys seem to have understudies too though. So the baton passes:

Hawkins > Neale
Duncan > Bowes *
Tuohy > Knevitt
Bews > Mullin
Parfitt > Bruhn *
Rohan > Henry
Stanley > Conway

Bowes and Bruhn asterisk because they're already b22 mids.

This means that we need to add 2x midfielders. If we want to improve they need to be better than Bruhn and Bowes. Smith this year is my hope, the other position I'll be looking for a step up from existing rotations.

Guthrie signed a 4 year deal so isnt ooc til end 2025.
Bowes is til 2026.

I agree with you on danger but he will get another year for his leadership etc etc.

Broadly agree on the rest.
Stengle is absolute class however we have depth including mannagh to me it depends on the $. Id give him a very good deal say 700 a year but once you are talking closer to 900k (which would definitely get us band 1) i feel like we would be better off investing that money in a top line kpf or mid (they are harder to get than smalls) and letting tyson go.
I have a feeling we will need to play mannagh or trade him as i think he will be in demand so theres a call to be made there.

I agree on the baton passes.
The problems are hawkins-as neale hasnt shown enough-in 2025 we can go with a smaller fwd setup but in longer term if neale or edwards doesnt come on we will seriously have to chase cadman or similar on the market.
Bews was a role player only but im not convinced by mullin-we may need to reinvent moc (or possibly even a late career guthrie) in that spot or try humphries. But small backs are easy to get on the market.
I also think blitz is close to cooked so we will need to make a call on the second ruck option-does it get games for neale by default? Possibly until cos or edwards are ready.
Which is why we must bring in a mature ruck who can interchange with conway.

Id delist murdoch and id give clohesy 2 years and willis 1.
Unconvinced by jeka but we probably keep as cover.
The henrys will stay and our other retentions like kolo are straightforward.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Guthrie signed a 4 year deal so isnt ooc til end 2025.
Bowes is til 2026.

I agree with you on danger but he will get another year for his leadership etc etc.

Broadly agree on the rest.
Stengle is absolute class however we have depth including mannagh to me it depends on the $. Id give him a very good deal say 700 a year but once you are talking closer to 900k (which would definitely get us band 1) i feel like we would be better off investing that money in a top line kpf or mid (they are harder to get than smalls) and letting tyson go.
I have a feeling we will need to play mannagh or trade him as i think he will be in demand so theres a call to be made there.

I agree on the baton passes.
The problems are hawkins-as neale hasnt shown enough-in 2025 we can go with a smaller fwd setup but in longer term if neale or edwards doesnt come on we will seriously have to chase cadman or similar on the market.
Bews was a role player only but im not convinced by mullin-we may need to reinvent moc (or possibly even a late career guthrie) in that spot or try humphries. But small backs are easy to get on the market.
I also think blitz is close to cooked so we will need to make a call on the second ruck option-does it get games for neale by default? Possibly until cos or edwards are ready.
Which is why we must bring in a mature ruck who can interchange with conway.

Id delist murdoch and id give clohesy 2 years and willis 1.
Unconvinced by jeka but we probably keep as cover.
The henrys will stay and our other retentions like kolo are straightforward.

Danger will play again. His junior club has been trying to manage its charge towards the BFL flag around getting PD back to finish the job. They're all saying 2026 expecting him to still be in the AFL next year.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Danger will play again. His junior club has been trying to manage its charge towards the BFL flag around getting PD back to finish the job. They're all saying 2026 expecting him to still be in the AFL next year.

Yeah my post previously wasn't trying to imply Danger or Guthrie won't be playing, just that their roles are not solving the midfield and likely creating a problem for us bringing youth through positions you can park a role player in.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Guthrie signed a 4 year deal so isnt ooc til end 2025.
Bowes is til 2026.

I agree with you on danger but he will get another year for his leadership etc etc.

Broadly agree on the rest.
Stengle is absolute class however we have depth including mannagh to me it depends on the $. Id give him a very good deal say 700 a year but once you are talking closer to 900k (which would definitely get us band 1) i feel like we would be better off investing that money in a top line kpf or mid (they are harder to get than smalls) and letting tyson go.
I have a feeling we will need to play mannagh or trade him as i think he will be in demand so theres a call to be made there.

I agree on the baton passes.
The problems are hawkins-as neale hasnt shown enough-in 2025 we can go with a smaller fwd setup but in longer term if neale or edwards doesnt come on we will seriously have to chase cadman or similar on the market.
Bews was a role player only but im not convinced by mullin-we may need to reinvent moc (or possibly even a late career guthrie) in that spot or try humphries. But small backs are easy to get on the market.
I also think blitz is close to cooked so we will need to make a call on the second ruck option-does it get games for neale by default? Possibly until cos or edwards are ready.
Which is why we must bring in a mature ruck who can interchange with conway.

Id delist murdoch and id give clohesy 2 years and willis 1.
Unconvinced by jeka but we probably keep as cover.
The henrys will stay and our other retentions like kolo are straightforward.

Guthrie 2 more years on decent money isn't ideal if he's not playing midfield. I'm any case I wasn't implying he wouldn't be playing, just moving to half back and that would create problems bringing kids through.

The blitz one is going to be a difficult one because immediately it means neale plays every game. Doubt COS becomes a ruck too. Edwards will be interesting but with the time it'll take to build his frame neale will have sunk or swum by the time we see him I think.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I don’t follow the VFL enough to speculate on guys in the seconds.

Of the 30+ guys I think
Gone: Hawk, Stanley, Bews, Tuohy
50/50: Duncan, Rohan
Chance to retire: Danger, Cuthrie, Blitz

I think the biggest danger ATM isn’t missing finals or not having enough talent, but doing a Norf sometime 2025-2027 and finding ourselves ruining pretty good kids because they’re getting bashed around without enough 25-30yos.
I think for this reason (need for mature players) Mannagh will play most games next year, Hardie and Parfitt (who I rated but think his recent games very disappointing) are a chance to be retained, Atkins and Bowes will be locked in best 22.

This year I think debuts or more games for Knevitt, Hardie, Stevens, Humphries, etc only happen due to injuries/management only. We’ll try to wring every game we can out of the senior players (and TBF I agree that we’re just a Dangerfield and Cuthrie away from being a real flag chance).

I'd say we're far more similar over the coming years to Sydney through '19 & 20, before a bounce again up the ladder in '21.

Both clubs were/are in a similar situation.

While they were still technically contending, the list managers behind the scenes had clearly changed the direction to youth over the previous couple years knowing that a changing of the guard was impending.

The list was clearly going in the direction of kids, but they still had these names coming into their prime (or in it) to help the transition:

• Rampe
• Lloyd
• Reid/Franklin
• Cunningham
• Parker

To go with these under 25s.

• Mills
• Heeney
• Papley
• Florent
• Blakey
• Hayward
• Amartey
• McCartin
• Warner
• McInerney
• Rowbottom

While phasing out veterans of the past era in:

• Heath Grundy
• Jack
• McVeigh
• Kennedy
• Hannebery
• Sinclair/Naismith
• Franklin/Tippett
• Smith

*****************************

Similarly, we're going to have these names to aid the transition:

• Bowes
• Miers
• Stengle
• Close
• Atkins
• Jack Henry
• Zach Guthrie
• Kolodjashnij

To go with these under 24s.

• Holmes
• Bruhn
• Clark
• Dempsey
• Conway
• Oliver Henry
• De Koning
• O'Sullivan
• Humphries
• Knevitt
• Neale
• Clohesy
• Bailey Smith/First round pick 2024

While phasing out:

• Hawkins
• Stanley
• Rohan
• Duncan
• Dangerfield
• Touhy
• Blicavs
• Bews

*****************************

I see a very similar trajectory between the two clubs, it's just going to take a couple of years to gel while the youngsters develop, and we continue to turn over the list like they did.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

I'd say we're far more similar over the coming years to Sydney through '19 & 20, before a bounce again up the ladder in '21.

Both clubs were/are in a similar situation.

While they were still technically contending, the list managers behind the scenes had clearly changed the direction to youth over the previous couple years knowing that a changing of the guard was impending.

The list was clearly going in the direction of kids, but they still had these names coming into their prime (or in it) to help the transition:

• Rampe
• Lloyd
• Reid/Franklin
• Cunningham
• Parker

To go with these under 25s.

• Mills
• Heeney
• Papley
• Florent
• Blakey
• Hayward
• Amartey
• McCartin
• Warner
• McInerney
• Rowbottom

While phasing out veterans of the past era in:

• Heath Grundy
• Jack
• McVeigh
• Kennedy
• Hannebery
• Sinclair/Naismith
• Franklin/Tippett
• Smith

*****************************

Similarly, we're going to have these names to aid the transition:

• Bowes
• Miers
• Stengle
• Close
• Atkins
• Jack Henry
• Zach Guthrie
• Kolodjashnij

To go with these under 24s.

• Holmes
• Bruhn
• Clark
• Dempsey
• Conway
• Oliver Henry
• De Koning
• O'Sullivan
• Humphries
• Knevitt
• Neale
• Clohesy
• Bailey Smith/First round pick 2024

While phasing out:

• Hawkins
• Stanley
• Rohan
• Duncan
• Dangerfield
• Touhy
• Blicavs
• Bews

*****************************

I see a very similar trajectory between the two clubs, it's just going to take a couple of years to gel while the youngsters develop, and we continue to turn over the list like they did.

We may need a Northern academy to make up that gap though

 

[Kobe Gryant]

We may need a Northern academy to make up that gap though

Bit of a lazy critiscm of the Swans there, Mills/Heeney are the only two listed that they got really cheap.

The irony of the two groups of names listed is we actually have the higher picks on average of the two clubs.

What we're doing here is projecting into the future, it's not a perfect exercise, but it's a rough estimate.

It's hard to do I know, but try to transport your mind back to that period I'm using for the Swans ('19 & '20), without having any preconceived bias on what you know now with hindsight.

Of the names listed under 25 (at the time for them) I'd say we win in terms of the backline and the ruck, they win the midfield, and the forwards are a wash.

Defenders

O'Sullivan, De Koning, Guthrie, Henry, Humphries > McCartin, Blakey, Florent.

Rucks

Conway, Edwards > McClean (they don't have a young ruck, so just throw him in as the closest)

Midfield

Heeney, Mills, Warner, Rowbottom, Gulden, McInerney> Bruhn, Holmes, Clark, Dempsey, Knevitt

Forwards

Neale, Henry, Stengle, Miers, Close = Amartey, Hayward, Papley

***********************

Basically aligns with what we already know, right?

Things look okay, but the midfield needs a legitimate star like Smith to bring it close to their level

If we can't/won't do that, then we need someone like Stevens or Clohesy to make a huge leap to stardom...which even in the unlikely event it occurs, is going to take a couple years anyway.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Going through our OOC players my most interesting thoughts are on some established names.

Cam Guthrie
Guthrie played mostly half back in his return match before moving into the middle where he was largely ineffective and strained his Achilles in his 4th match back.
If he's going to be ineffective and his body won't hold up, then does he need to play HBF from here on?

This is the first tension point for 2025. We need to manage him into the same position where we need to be giving games to Mullin and Humphries in. The manage in position is the same as the manage out position

Patrick Dangerfield
His best work is still breathtaking, but even in his last match you could see he's being deployed forward for longer. Midfield will tear his body to shreds for any sustained period.

This is the second tension point. The only position he can likely take is Henry's. He can be effective there but we also need to invest in Henry.

Tyson Stengle
Offers for this guy could, and should, be huge. He owes us nothing and needs to catch up on earnings. Without him we'd be out of the 8 in my opinion.

The third tension point is where do we draw the line on dollars here? He is worth whatever money is thrown at him, but need to be using cash to throw at a trade in mid. What if the same dollars as tyson stengle and Brandon Parfitt gave you bailey smith and Shaun Mannagh?

Those are my big 3 talking points and I don't have an answer for any of them.


On the other OOC players they're mostly easy and it's a more boring list. Status taken from footywire so if it's wrong don't @ me

I'll miss you:
Hawkins
Duncan
Tuohy
Bews
Parfitt
Rohan
Stanley

Thanks for coming but it didn't work out:
Foster
Hardie

One more year
Jeka
Murdoch
Willis

Multiple years
J Henry
Bowes
Kolo
O Henry
Clohesy

That's 9 out, possibly 10 if Stengle walks. Near a quarter of the list and 8-9 are senior spots. A lot of the senior guys seem to have understudies too though. So the baton passes:

Hawkins > Neale
Duncan > Bowes *
Tuohy > Knevitt
Bews > Mullin
Parfitt > Bruhn *
Rohan > Henry
Stanley > Conway

Bowes and Bruhn asterisk because they're already b22 mids.

This means that we need to add 2x midfielders. If we want to improve they need to be better than Bruhn and Bowes. Smith this year is my hope, the other position I'll be looking for a step up from existing rotations.

To get an idea of what that baton pass looks like

Henry SDK Zuth
Bowes Kolo Guth
Dempsey Bruhn Knevitt
Close Neale Miers
Stengle* Cameron Danger
Conway Blitz Holmes
Henry Clark Atkins Humphries?

That midfield is not winning many games in 2025 without adding support

 

[numbwombat]

We may need a Northern academy to make up that gap though

Yes, the difference is quality. The comparison that jumps out at me is the Cats of 2015, coming to the end (or as it turned out, only the middle) of a great era - but back then we had Hawkins and Selwood to build around, and the best player in the competition nominated us as his only trade option.

Our youth is good, they're getting games and they're no longer complete kids, but the next couple of years will be a bit dicey. All worth it to see Selwood captain the '22 flag.

 

[numbwombat]

To get an idea of what that baton pass looks like

Henry SDK Zuth
Bowes Kolo Guth
Dempsey Bruhn Knevitt
Close Neale Miers
Stengle* Cameron Danger
Conway Blitz Holmes
Henry Clark Atkins Humphries?

That midfield is not winning many games in 2025 without adding support

Why are some names bold?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Why are some names bold?

Ah I forgot to write that. That's the players capable of playing inside mid. That's the problem in a nutshell

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Bit of a lazy critiscm of the Swans there, Mills/Heeney are the only two listed that they got really cheap.

The irony of the two groups of names listed is we actually have the higher picks on average of the two clubs.

What we're doing here is projecting into the future, it's not a perfect exercise, but it's a rough estimate.

It's hard to do I know, but try to transport your mind back to that period I'm using for the Swans ('19 & '20), without having any preconceived bias on what you know now with hindsight.

Of the names listed under 25 (at the time for them) I'd say we win in terms of the backline and the ruck, they win the midfield, and the forwards are a wash.

Defenders

O'Sullivan, De Koning, Guthrie, Henry, Humphries > McCartin, Blakey, Florent.

Rucks

Conway, Edwards > McClean (they don't have a young ruck, so just throw him in as the closest)

Midfield

Heeney, Mills, Warner, Rowbottom, Gulden, McInerney> Bruhn, Holmes, Clark, Dempsey, Knevitt

Forwards

Neale, Henry, Stengle, Miers, Close = Amartey, Hayward, Papley

***********************

Basically aligns with what we already know, right?

Things look okay, but the midfield needs a legitimate star like Smith to bring it close to their level

If we can't/won't do that, then we need someone like Stevens or Clohesy to make a huge leap to stardom...which even in the unlikely event it occurs, is going to take a couple years anyway.

They got Gulden cheap. They took Blakey who was a F/S for the roos. They were able to add Campbell without giving up the pick they used for Logan McDonald. That's priority access to 5 very good or elite players.

 

[bruce lindner]

Great list analysis in this thread. Any thoughts on the club trading any players of market value to secure those desired couple of mids we need?

 

[CHAWKTS]

Guthrie 2 more years on decent money isn't ideal if he's not playing midfield. I'm any case I wasn't implying he wouldn't be playing, just moving to half back and that would create problems bringing kids through.

The blitz one is going to be a difficult one because immediately it means neale plays every game. Doubt COS becomes a ruck too. Edwards will be interesting but with the time it'll take to build his frame neale will have sunk or swum by the time we see him I think.

Is there any merit over time to bring the SDK to ruck conversation back? His brother is two years older and really came over age over the past two years. The objection I think has been about protecting SDK but it might well be better for him to have some freedom around the ground? Just a thought

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Going through our OOC players my most interesting thoughts are on some established names.

Cam Guthrie
Guthrie played mostly half back in his return match before moving into the middle where he was largely ineffective and strained his Achilles in his 4th match back.
If he's going to be ineffective and his body won't hold up, then does he need to play HBF from here on?

This is the first tension point for 2025. We need to manage him into the same position where we need to be giving games to Mullin and Humphries in. The manage in position is the same as the manage out position

Patrick Dangerfield
His best work is still breathtaking, but even in his last match you could see he's being deployed forward for longer. Midfield will tear his body to shreds for any sustained period.

This is the second tension point. The only position he can likely take is Henry's. He can be effective there but we also need to invest in Henry.

Tyson Stengle
Offers for this guy could, and should, be huge. He owes us nothing and needs to catch up on earnings. Without him we'd be out of the 8 in my opinion.

The third tension point is where do we draw the line on dollars here? He is worth whatever money is thrown at him, but need to be using cash to throw at a trade in mid. What if the same dollars as tyson stengle and Brandon Parfitt gave you bailey smith and Shaun Mannagh?

Those are my big 3 talking points and I don't have an answer for any of them.


On the other OOC players they're mostly easy and it's a more boring list. Status taken from footywire so if it's wrong don't @ me

I'll miss you:
Hawkins
Duncan
Tuohy
Bews
Parfitt
Rohan
Stanley

Thanks for coming but it didn't work out:
Foster
Hardie

One more year
Jeka
Murdoch
Willis

Multiple years
J Henry
Bowes
Kolo
O Henry
Clohesy

That's 9 out, possibly 10 if Stengle walks. Near a quarter of the list and 8-9 are senior spots. A lot of the senior guys seem to have understudies too though. So the baton passes:

Hawkins > Neale
Duncan > Bowes *
Tuohy > Knevitt
Bews > Mullin
Parfitt > Bruhn *
Rohan > Henry
Stanley > Conway

Bowes and Bruhn asterisk because they're already b22 mids.

This means that we need to add 2x midfielders. If we want to improve they need to be better than Bruhn and Bowes. Smith this year is my hope, the other position I'll be looking for a step up from existing rotations.

To add numbers here too. My 7 players on the "I'll miss you" list have a combined 1,619 games experience.

The total games experience on the list coming into the year was something around 3,890. At the end if the year that tally is going to be 4,396. My 7 names probably play a combined 35 gamesish to see out the year so say we are dropping 1,674. If we're only adding draftees it'll be around a 38-40% reduction in games tally end of year.

We came in as the most experienced team at 88.6 games per player. If we draft to replace and fill the same number of spots we end up with 2,722 games of experience over 44 players for about 61 average games. This year that number would be the same as the Crows, 4th to last. Only Hawthorn, Freo, and North would be less experienced going into '24 as we go into '25 on that basis.

For context, North Melbourne in 2016 had more average games than we do this year. They delisted 1,345 games of experience, so ~300 less than my list. They ended up with a list experience total of 55.8, which was a drop from by far the oldest to the 7th youngest. Harvey did some heavy lifting in those numbers, but their numbers were lower. They won 6 games for the year.

Now I'm not saying we'll be North. But we do need some serious trade ins.

PS: we'd go from 11 listed players currently over 30 to 5 players over 30 by start of 2025