Unofficial Preview RD 13 - Bye week and 2023 season assessment thus far.

[Pure_Ownage]

The most disappointing thing has been losing 3 close games when we were undermanned and struggling to teams I think we're clearly better than.

Gold Coast and Freo away are tough trips and Collingwood is clearly a good team. But Richmond, Carlton and GWS at home are 3 losses that could really sting in the back half of the year.

Carlton i can cop because early in the year we were going to struggle off a short pre season.

But when you see how crap richmond and gws are those are games we never should have dropped. Then again we had richmond early there and botched goalkicking and if cameron kicks a couple that he missed against gws we win that too so we arent far off. But if we miss the 8 by 1 or 2 games (which we might) those losses will really sting. I still think that if we sneak into 8th that we are a real chance to go all the way.

 

[Seeds]

He has been good but as a small forward you need to kick 40+ to get near the AA side when the forward flanks are going to be midfielders. Charlie Cameron kicked 54 last year and missed out.

And at his current rate miers will end up with just under 4 goals in the season. Now that would be out of the box. An all australian small forward with less than 4 goals in a year.

 

[terry_bright]

Dislikes

• the start to the season
• Injuries
• the ruck situation.
• Parfitt's form.
• Tuohy's decline

Likes

• Miers form.
• Knevitt's development
• Sav down back
• Mullin's potential
• Holmes in the guts

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

We've had a lot of young players play out of necessity so don't underestimate a lack of cohesion as a reason why we've looked poor at times. The silver lining is they're gaining valuable experience earlier than anyone expected which will fast track their development.

 

[Stab Pass]

The injuries have hurt but the lack of continuity has been a bigger issue. You get continuity and suddenly the system works better, we defend better, we are more efficient going forward. We need to get guys back but need to get a couple of weeks in a row where we are unchanged or have minor changes. We get a decent run injury wise and we'll play finals. Not sure too many teams would want to be playing us if we had close to a full list.

 

[BotsMaster]

This is the round we usually lose ? /s

Port are the only team to have lost to the bye.

 

[CabWesty]

So how have we been for injuries so far this year? In terms of top 30 players they've missed the following rounds:
Stanley - 3, 6-12 - eye issue
Tuohy - 7
Parfitt - 2-4, 6-8, 12 - out of form
Bruhn - 4-6
Cameron - played all
Smith - played all
Kolo - 1-3 - we lost all of those
Holmes - 11-12, injured
Knevitt - 1-5 - came in to replace injuries, doing well.
Bowes - 1, 8-12
Clark 1-8, 10-12 - medium term injury after first game.
Ceglar - 1-2, 4-7
De Koning - 4, 8-10 - looks like he's in a remake of Phantom of the Opera
Ratugolea - 12 - injured
Stengle - 6-9 - broken hand
Duncan - 1-3, 10-12 - lost 5 of those 6
Rohan - 5, 8-11
Bews - 5-6
Hawkins - played all - moved like an old man the first three though
Menegola - missed all season
C Guthrie - 7-12 - still injured
Atkins - played all
Miers - played all
Dangerfield - 9-12 - still injured
O Henry - 10
Simpson - 1-5, 11
J Henry - 1-9
Z Guthrie - played all
O'Connor - played all
Stewart - 2 - expected him to miss 4 not 1.
Close - 9
Blicavs - played all

Only 8 of the team have played all the games, 4 have missed one round, some of our more 'elite' or particular role players such as Stanley, Danger, Guthrie, Duncan, Stengle, SDK, J Henry, Rohan and Menegola have missed four or more, guys like Ceglar, Simpson, Knevitt, Bowes etc probably wouldn't have played around half the games if our full team was fit.

For us to be 6 and 6 in that circumstance with the majority of the outs to hopefully be fit by round 15-16, I'm OK with that.

 

[Mr Meow]

So how have we been for injuries so far this year? In terms of top 30 players they've missed the following rounds:
Stanley - 3, 6-12 - eye issue
Tuohy - 7
Parfitt - 2-4, 6-8, 12 - out of form
Bruhn - 4-6
Cameron - played all
Smith - played all
Kolo - 1-3 - we lost all of those
Holmes - 11-12, injured
Knevitt - 1-5 - came in to replace injuries, doing well.
Bowes - 1, 8-12
Clark 1-8, 10-12 - medium term injury after first game.
Ceglar - 1-2, 4-7
De Koning - 4, 8-10 - looks like he's in a remake of Phantom of the Opera
Ratugolea - 12 - injured
Stengle - 6-9 - broken hand
Duncan - 1-3, 10-12 - lost 5 of those 6
Rohan - 5, 8-11
Bews - 5-6
Hawkins - played all - moved like an old man the first three though
Menegola - missed all season
C Guthrie - 7-12 - still injured
Atkins - played all
Miers - played all
Dangerfield - 9-12 - still injured
O Henry - 10
Simpson - 1-5, 11
J Henry - 1-9
Z Guthrie - played all
O'Connor - played all
Stewart - 2 - expected him to miss 4 not 1.
Close - 9
Blicavs - played all

Only 8 of the team have played all the games, 4 have missed one round, some of our more 'elite' or particular role players such as Stanley, Danger, Guthrie, Duncan, Stengle, SDK, J Henry, Rohan and Menegola have missed four or more, guys like Ceglar, Simpson, Knevitt, Bowes etc probably wouldn't have played around half the games if our full team was fit.

For us to be 6 and 6 in that circumstance with the majority of the outs to hopefully be fit by round 15-16, I'm OK with that.

5-1 with Duncan in the side Vs 1-5 without him is interesting. Maybe just a coincidence but he remains a very important player for us.

 

[cats_09]

 

[Turbocat]

The only disappointment I have had from this year so far...is the injuries to some of the younger players .. Conway, Neale, Clark , Willis. might all have played in the big time if they had been fit for every game ..pushing for selection


The results are almost irrelevant ... its about enjoying the 2022 result but recognising that while we are a chance this year if everything goes our way... .... realistically its probably not going to happen.

Its going to be very difficult and one slip up and we will be done. At a min...we probably have to play... either Brisbane in Brisbane or Port in Adelaide at Semi final or Preliminary final stage to win.. Possibly both. Possible to win? Yes.. but it will be more difficult than last year ..against better opposition.


For me , the lesson to be learnt is to look at someone like the 2018 premier. To be aware that if and when Tasmania come in talent will be thin... and most of our best players are close to their end... so we need to begin to move.

and so the kids we have played is very positive. Mistakes and a lack of harmony yes. We will not see the best of our young guys for years. They need time and games... and thats what we have started to give them.

 

[D BRIDGE]

The results are almost irrelevant ... its about enjoying the 2022 result but recognising that while we are a chance this year if everything goes our way... .... realistically its probably not going to happen.

Its going to be very difficult and one slip up and we will be done. At a min...we probably have to play... either Brisbane in Brisbane or Port in Adelaide at Semi final or Preliminary final stage to win.. Possibly both. Possible to win? Yes.. but it will be more difficult than last year ..against better opposition.


For me , the lesson to be learnt is to look at someone like the 2018 premier. To be aware that if and when Tasmania come in talent will be thin... and most of our best players are close to their end... so we need to begin to move.

and so the kids we have played is very positive. Mistakes and a lack of harmony yes. We will not see the best of our young guys for years. They need time and games... and thats what we have started to give them.

I agree with plenty here and I just don't expect to flag up this year.

It's just so hard going B2B and it's even harder when you lose a guy like Selwood, then you have a million injuries + the fact that top 4 is looking very long odds ++ We are likely to need to travel maybe a couple of times in the finals just to make a GF +++ We literally have the hardest run home of any team.

I think this is why my "glass half empty" mindset mentioned things that we could do for the rest of the year that could potentially fast-track us for a final tilt next year with this old list.

If we continue to tip toe around the edge of the 8 a not really look out of contention I think those kids that are getting games will probably have those games dry up for them as injuries improve.

Mullin won't play now... no way.

Bruhn might still get a bit of a run because Guthrie is out but Knevitt might find his way out after coming along nicely.

Dempsey needs full games but he won't get them.

Not sure what's going on with Neale but it's hard to see him getting a birth.

Sav is tracking really well as a beast KPB but yeah maybe even he is shelved and thus stopping his progression which could be huge for next year (still reckon CS will play him though... the dude loves him).

We are already starting to talk about Ollie Henry not being best 22 with Rohan in (and I agree) and making him more of a sub... But does playing him as a sub a bit and popping him back to the VFL really help him next year compared to playing week in, week out?

Last week we were thinking we might see Hardie get a run but after just one win with some guys coming back he looks destined to play VFL.

I just worry that we will push, push, push for it to happen this year and we might end up 9th or even making the finals but falling short (and that can happen)... but the negative side of me thinks that in doing so we will thrash Blitz, Hawk, Smith, Cameron and co all year, not give the younger guys many more games and also not get a really good draft pick to help rebuild with and it'll hurt next years tilt by having a dip a failing this year.

Yes I'm very glass half empty but in my head I just don't see it happening this year.

I'd love nothing more than to be proven 1000000% wrong for feeling this way.

 

[goyoucatters]

Not sure what's going on with Neale but it's hard to see him getting a birth.

Absolutely.

He's male, for a start.

 

[#6 Thorp #7 Selwood LOL]

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I agree with plenty here and I just don't expect to flag up this year.

It's just so hard going B2B and it's even harder when you lose a guy like Selwood, then you have a million injuries + the fact that top 4 is looking very long odds ++ We are likely to need to travel maybe a couple of times in the finals just to make a GF +++ We literally have the hardest run home of any team.

I think this is why my "glass half empty" mindset mentioned things that we could do for the rest of the year that could potentially fast-track us for a final tilt next year with this old list.

If we continue to tip toe around the edge of the 8 a not really look out of contention I think those kids that are getting games will probably have those games dry up for them as injuries improve.

Mullin won't play now... no way.

Bruhn might still get a bit of a run because Guthrie is out but Knevitt might find his way out after coming along nicely.

Dempsey needs full games but he won't get them.

Not sure what's going on with Neale but it's hard to see him getting a birth.

Sav is tracking really well as a beast KPB but yeah maybe even he is shelved and thus stopping his progression which could be huge for next year (still reckon CS will play him though... the dude loves him).

We are already starting to talk about Ollie Henry not being best 22 with Rohan in (and I agree) and making him more of a sub... But does playing him as a sub a bit and popping him back to the VFL really help him next year compared to playing week in, week out?

Last week we were thinking we might see Hardie get a run but after just one win with some guys coming back he looks destined to play VFL.

I just worry that we will push, push, push for it to happen this year and we might end up 9th or even making the finals but falling short (and that can happen)... but the negative side of me thinks that in doing so we will thrash Blitz, Hawk, Smith, Cameron and co all year, not give the younger guys many more games and also not get a really good draft pick to help rebuild with and it'll hurt next years tilt by having a dip a failing this year.

Yes I'm very glass half empty but in my head I just don't see it happening this year.

I'd love nothing more than to be proven 1000000% wrong for feeling this way.

I'm still as confident now as I was 4 weeks ago.

 

[4quarter_cat]

Is anyone able to un-paywall this?

 

[AM]

An interesting question - one that is somewhat unanswerable - is how much of our woes have been down to injury and how much have we been “worked out” or at least “worked on”?

It’s surely a little of column A and a little of column B.

It feels like we have been a lot easier to score against. The team defence has never really had continuity. Opposition seem to find holes in it very easily.

Will that improve with a stronger midfield allowing less ball in? Or is it more about the method and the quality going into our D50?

Weren't we travelling quite well until the injuries hit, then.......

Think the Great Scott has said many times that having a healthy outfit is the single most significant factor in the win/loss/finals success scenario.

To my mind had we not been hit with major injury concerns and the consequent loss of talent and cohesion we'd be in much better shape ladder-wise.

 

[Mr Meow]

I agree with plenty here and I just don't expect to flag up this year.

It's just so hard going B2B and it's even harder when you lose a guy like Selwood, then you have a million injuries + the fact that top 4 is looking very long odds ++ We are likely to need to travel maybe a couple of times in the finals just to make a GF +++ We literally have the hardest run home of any team.

I think this is why my "glass half empty" mindset mentioned things that we could do for the rest of the year that could potentially fast-track us for a final tilt next year with this old list.

If we continue to tip toe around the edge of the 8 a not really look out of contention I think those kids that are getting games will probably have those games dry up for them as injuries improve.

Mullin won't play now... no way.

Bruhn might still get a bit of a run because Guthrie is out but Knevitt might find his way out after coming along nicely.

Dempsey needs full games but he won't get them.

Not sure what's going on with Neale but it's hard to see him getting a birth.

Sav is tracking really well as a beast KPB but yeah maybe even he is shelved and thus stopping his progression which could be huge for next year (still reckon CS will play him though... the dude loves him).

We are already starting to talk about Ollie Henry not being best 22 with Rohan in (and I agree) and making him more of a sub... But does playing him as a sub a bit and popping him back to the VFL really help him next year compared to playing week in, week out?

Last week we were thinking we might see Hardie get a run but after just one win with some guys coming back he looks destined to play VFL.

I just worry that we will push, push, push for it to happen this year and we might end up 9th or even making the finals but falling short (and that can happen)... but the negative side of me thinks that in doing so we will thrash Blitz, Hawk, Smith, Cameron and co all year, not give the younger guys many more games and also not get a really good draft pick to help rebuild with and it'll hurt next years tilt by having a dip a failing this year.

Yes I'm very glass half empty but in my head I just don't see it happening this year.

I'd love nothing more than to be proven 1000000% wrong for feeling this way.

This remains one of the worst theories I've seen.

The likelihood of a flag is always low for every team. The main thing holding us back from being top 4 still is injuries but we are piecing the team back together bit by bit.

3 out of 7 times since the pre-finals bye was introduced, a side from outside the top 4 made the grand final. All had to travel, sometimes twice, before the grand final.

Top 4 is not sewn up. Melbourne don't look convincing and if they lose their next two to Collingwood and us, the chase is on.

5 of our last 9 games are at home.

We already are getting stacks of games into the kids, but can now do so without there being too many at once. They can still help us rotate the old boys as well in the way we did last year. There will still be more injuries too.

The veterans and "prime" players are not going to be more motivated for next year by phoning this one in and finishing 11th. It's also just not how the club operates. They simply bounce back as they did after 2018 and 2021 - years in which things did not amazingly optimistic and years where the boys "thrashed themselves" anyway.

Using "Squiggle" (predictor algorithm) simulations usually there is one road trip at most e.g Brisbane at the Gabba in a prelim or semi. Brisbane and Port lose home finals like it's nobody's business. Our best side is comfortably better than in 2020 or 2021.

Giving up is not going to happen and nor should it. If you want to embrace a losers mentality, even for one season, you just have to accept that the club won't be following you.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

I'm still as confident now as I was 4 weeks ago.

15 in a row on the cards?

I would say no, but I would have said the exact same thing this time last year.

Lightning could strike twice.

 

[goyoucatters]

This remains one of the worst theories I've seen.

The likelihood of a flag is always low for every team. The main thing holding us back from being top 4 still is injuries but we are piecing the team back together bit by bit.

3 out of 7 times since the pre-finals bye was introduced, a side from outside the top 4 made the grand final. All had to travel, sometimes twice, before the grand final.

Top 4 is not sewn up. Melbourne don't look convincing and if they lose their next two to Collingwood and us, the chase is on.

5 of our last 9 games are at home.

We already are getting stacks of games into the kids, but can now do so without there being too many at once. They can still help us rotate the old boys as well in the way we did last year. There will still be more injuries too.

The veterans and "prime" players are not going to be more motivated for next year by phoning this one in and finishing 11th. It's also just not how the club operates. They simply bounce back as they did after 2018 and 2021 - years in which things did not amazingly optimistic and years where the boys "thrashed themselves" anyway.

Using "Squiggle" (predictor algorithm) simulations usually there is one road trip at most e.g Brisbane at the Gabba in a prelim or semi. Brisbane and Port lose home finals like it's nobody's business. Our best side is comfortably better than in 2020 or 2021.

Giving up is not going to happen and nor should it. If you want to embrace a losers mentality, even for one season, you just have to accept that the club won't be following you.

This is all very true. And the fact is the comp is also quite weak at this point. The fact that the Pies look streets ahead of the others right now tells you that there's not many strong contenders in 2023. I think the Dees are vulnerable and gettable, and the Power and the Lions have proven to be historically good with coughing up the apparent advantage of home PF's. Surely no other team apart from that lot and us can be considered to be a realistic chance to win it. And some of them don't appear that much of an actual chance, either.

On that basis alone, you go as hard as you can for as long as you can.

 

[00VicWard001]

Absolutely agree. It was so out of character from the coach, which made it seem like the next best thing to him having lost his marbles at how we dropped that game, purely through a timid and reactive approach for almost three entire quarters of the match.

So I took it to be a positive sign that the players reacted with a far more committed performance against the Dogs. Sure, we still weren't shooting the lights out. But, when it was there to be won, I saw a whole bunch of players (young and old) standing up and contesting like their footy futures depended on it. That and better (in terms of consistent effort) will be required if we're going to climb the ladder and give ourselves a shot at glory in 2023.

It was demonstrated through a bit of aggression at the ball. Came in with the mindset that we were the big dog, and let them know it. Quite a few hard spoils and good bumps and even professional frees. Most of it is mindset, that's why CS has been bullish on us. The week earlier, we were not engaged the right way as a collective.

 

[00VicWard001]

This is all very true. And the fact is the comp is also quite weak at this point. The fact that the Pies look streets ahead of the others right now tells you that there's not many strong contenders in 2023. I think the Dees are vulnerable and gettable, and the Power and the Lions have proven to be historically good with coughing up the apparent advantage of home PF's. Surely no other team apart from that lot and us can be considered to be a realistic chance to win it. And some of them don't appear that much of an actual chance, either.

On that basis alone, you go as hard as you can for as long as you can.

The Dees and the Cat's like all recent premiers, know what you need to do to catch fire at the right time of the season. The Dees have been good enough to bank wins, but they, like us are hoping to peak at the right time. The Pies, Lions and Power have the hunger of being the bridesmaids (or near enough), so they will try and maintain the rage and probably hit their issues at the end of the season.

 

[Vdubs]

5-1 with Duncan in the side Vs 1-5 without him is interesting. Maybe just a coincidence but he remains a very important player for us.

Very interesting point.
Watching him this year, tend to favour coincidence

 

[AM]

For those who want to read it.

No Cookies | Geelong Advertiser

No Cookies

tinyurl.com

 

[catsfootyfan89]

Personally, for me the biggest misstep this season was how much liberty the players took in the off-season.

In defense of the players, the road to the Premiership was long and brutal. The fact that they finally got there - despite all of the hardship - is emblematic of a good footy club, so perhaps their workrate over the summer can be forgiven.

However, I do believe that the team is reaping what they've sown - coming back unfit has probably caused a host of injuries. Either through exertion, or through a lack of physical awareness and capability which just leads to injuries on a footy field when you're not on the top of your game.

I'm sure many will disagree with this, but large numbers of injuries are rarely just a random occurrence. There are always factors that influence injury rate and I believe a lack of fitness is one of them.

Personally, I'd prefer the hardness and hunger of the teams who go back to back or win a three-peat.

All is not lost - but this season probably wont result in a grand slam for us, which is pretty disappointing given how good this team has been.

 

[D BRIDGE]

This remains one of the worst theories I've seen.

The likelihood of a flag is always low for every team. The main thing holding us back from being top 4 still is injuries but we are piecing the team back together bit by bit.

3 out of 7 times since the pre-finals bye was introduced, a side from outside the top 4 made the grand final. All had to travel, sometimes twice, before the grand final.

Top 4 is not sewn up. Melbourne don't look convincing and if they lose their next two to Collingwood and us, the chase is on.

5 of our last 9 games are at home.

We already are getting stacks of games into the kids, but can now do so without there being too many at once. They can still help us rotate the old boys as well in the way we did last year. There will still be more injuries too.

The veterans and "prime" players are not going to be more motivated for next year by phoning this one in and finishing 11th. It's also just not how the club operates. They simply bounce back as they did after 2018 and 2021 - years in which things did not amazingly optimistic and years where the boys "thrashed themselves" anyway.

Using "Squiggle" (predictor algorithm) simulations usually there is one road trip at most e.g Brisbane at the Gabba in a prelim or semi. Brisbane and Port lose home finals like it's nobody's business. Our best side is comfortably better than in 2020 or 2021.

Giving up is not going to happen and nor should it. If you want to embrace a losers mentality, even for one season, you just have to accept that the club won't be following you.

It's not really a theory... more just me running through things that could happen for each direction we go when/if we get to a fork in the road moment.

If we have a win next week we might get rolling and never even get to that moment.