Preview Rd 14 Bye week - time to look ahead.

[sexyhunk]

He seems to be a laconic character and always was.
Ok when you are winning your battles, but that can be a bad look when you or the team are getting beaten.
My main complaint against him is the apparent absence of second effort.

yep, very Joe Danihir like

 

[sexyhunk]

unpopular opinion, Cameron guthie hasnt played a decent game in a year and a half, and at 32 why are we thinking he be back at full capacity. He contracted for two more years so i play him if he is fit but I wouldnt bank on this guy as some sort of a saviour.

 

[Play it Sam]

It's not kicking the can down the road though. That implies that there's no actual reason to do it.

You stagger it on purpose, for instance:

If we do it all right now, our young core of Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, O'Sullivan, Henry, Conway, Dempsey, SDK, & Neale are forced to be our best players week on week, bashing into their more senior opponents when they're not ready.

Some may swim, but history says most sink in that scenario. It's the easiest way to ruin promising youngsters.

On the other hand, if you stagger the retirements, that young core is taking the reigns when they're 23-25, which is typically the beginning of a players prime years.

It makes the transition as close to seamless as you can get.

Now, we absolutely have some veterans who aren't pulling their weight, and should be pushed to hang them up...but it can't be all of them.

We also need somebody like Smith to come in to help bridge the gap between the Dangerfield, Guthrie, & Duncan era to the Holmes, Bruhn, & Clark era.

Smith, another player of a similar age and quality, alongside Close, Miers, Stengle, Jenry, Zuthrie, Bowes, & Atkins, with veterans who can still contribute in Guthrie, Stewart, Dangerfield, & Cameron is enough to bridge that transition between eras.

It'll keep us afloat, and in a pretty weak era for footy, it could even have us as a finals/top 4 chance over the next couple years even while we're transitioning.

Not dissimilar to this year in a way, and the Swans in '21 & '22 were similar too, and that's what I expect the club is trying to emulate.

Good work on that post. You had me until the last line. I'd like to think the Swans were emulating US !!

Amazing to see the rollover from our 2020 list, with the likes of Ablett, Sav, Taylor, Cockatoo, Steven, Dahlhaus, Jenkins, Stephens, Fogarty, Constable, Henderson, Narkle, Evans, J Clark, Simpson, Parsons, Fort, Menegola, Brownless, going around.

That list is a timely reminder of how good our recruiting since, has been, and the ebb and flow over 4 years.
So I'll still trust the club to manage well, with what we have and additions, and never repeat the angst caused to Chapman and Johnson in retirement.

 

[terry_bright]

It's not kicking the can down the road though. That implies that there's no actual reason to do it.

You stagger it on purpose, for instance:

If we do it all right now, our young core of Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, O'Sullivan, Henry, Conway, Dempsey, SDK, & Neale are forced to be our best players week on week, bashing into their more senior opponents when they're not ready.

Some may swim, but history says most sink in that scenario. It's the easiest way to ruin promising youngsters.

On the other hand, if you stagger the retirements, that young core is taking the reigns when they're 23-25, which is typically the beginning of a players prime years.

It makes the transition as close to seamless as you can get.

Now, we absolutely have some veterans who aren't pulling their weight, and should be pushed to hang them up...but it can't be all of them.

We also need somebody like Smith to come in to help bridge the gap between the Dangerfield, Guthrie, & Duncan era to the Holmes, Bruhn, & Clark era.

Smith, another player of a similar age and quality, alongside Close, Miers, Stengle, Jenry, Zuthrie, Bowes, & Atkins, with veterans who can still contribute in Guthrie, Stewart, Dangerfield, & Cameron is enough to bridge that transition between eras.

It'll keep us afloat, and in a pretty weak era for footy, it could even have us as a finals/top 4 chance over the next couple years even while we're transitioning.

Not dissimilar to this year in a way, and the Swans in '21 & '22 were similar too, and that's what I expect the club is trying to emulate.

Do you honestly think of the players I suggested depart (Stanley, Rohan, Bews, Hawkins & Tuohy) are best 22 in 2025?
Do you think any would want to play VFL football for the majority of the year in 2025?
Then you'll have the double whammy of kids we have put time into, wanting to leave as they don't see a pathway to getting into the team.
We have 10 or so players who will probably retire over the next 3 years. If the 5 I've mentioned retire at the end of the year and we can get some experience into the kids and/or open up the salary cap to bring in experienced players, hopefully by the time the rest retire the blow will be softened substantially.
You would still have 11 or so players with over 100 games being regulars next year. Another 6 - 8 who would be between 50-100 games. North, and Melbourne before that, cut too deep into their best 22 and were left with something like 4 players over 100 games and up to 10 with under 50 games experience in their team.
Holding on to any of them for the sake of not releasing too many players this year is the definition of kicking the can down the road.

 

[Gazzathegoat]

8-5 coming into the bye is a fair representation of where we sit.

We have been competitive in every game (except Gold Coast in Darwin).

Starting the season 7-0 with several key players missing was an anomaly. 5-2 was more fitting of our form.

We only turned up for 2 quarters against GWS & Port and fell just short of the win. We were lacking leadership and midfield depth.

Winning against Brisbane & Carlton were a bonus. We also beat Bulldogs with a heavily depleted team.

Our next matchup against Carlton is an 8-point game, if we can beat them again it will solidify our top 2 chances.

10 matches remaining, 6 are very winnable:

• Hawthorn (GMHBA)
• Bulldogs (GMHBA) danger game if they are fully fit
• Adelaide (GMHBA)
• North (Blundstone)
• St Kilda (Marvel)
• West Coast (GMHBA)

4 very challenging games

• Carlton (MCG) 40/60 chance
• Essendon (MCG) 50/50 chance
• Collingwood (MCG) 50/50 chance
• Fremantle (Perth) 40/60 chance

8+ wins secures us top 2 (if we beat Carlton)

7+ wins secures us top 4

7-8 wins are very gettable IMO.

Plenty to be excited about. Go cats!

 

[allrighty]

I don't think there is a left field option on our list. We are hamstrung with PDF and Cuthrie, plus JH and SDK underperforming.

And yet we are getting within range every game bar the Darwin shitshow. Even with bugger all ruck consistency and mids playing their guts out but just not good enough at the moment.

You are good thinkers, where do you think we should go?

I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. Really need to focus on this week.

That said, we'd have to be big favourites to crush the bye. We may not be flying, but we're no 2012 Port. I don't expect much of a percentage booster (if any) but hopefully we get through with no injuries or suspensions. Rumours are the bye is pretty soft, so hoping it's a bruise-free encounter and we go in against the Blues fresh and coming off a good win...

Can we pull it off though?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Bit of a lazy critiscm of the Swans there, Mills/Heeney are the only two listed that they got really cheap.

The irony of the two groups of names listed is we actually have the higher picks on average of the two clubs.

What we're doing here is projecting into the future, it's not a perfect exercise, but it's a rough estimate.

It's hard to do I know, but try to transport your mind back to that period I'm using for the Swans ('19 & '20), without having any preconceived bias on what you know now with hindsight.

Of the names listed under 25 (at the time for them) I'd say we win in terms of the backline and the ruck, they win the midfield, and the forwards are a wash.

Defenders

O'Sullivan, De Koning, Guthrie, Henry, Humphries > McCartin, Blakey, Florent.

Rucks

Conway, Edwards > McClean (they don't have a young ruck, so just throw him in as the closest)

Midfield

Heeney, Mills, Warner, Rowbottom, Gulden, McInerney> Bruhn, Holmes, Clark, Dempsey, Knevitt

Forwards

Neale, Henry, Stengle, Miers, Close = Amartey, Hayward, Papley

***********************

Basically aligns with what we already know, right?

Things look okay, but the midfield needs a legitimate star like Smith to bring it close to their level

If we can't/won't do that, then we need someone like Stevens or Clohesy to make a huge leap to stardom...which even in the unlikely event it occurs, is going to take a couple years anyway.

Just an update on how their academy went over the weekend - academy players for them racked up 57% of all available coaches votes

 

[allrighty]

Agreed.
Either we pay top dollar, but I tend to think we’ll add a year on top of our offer.
I have a feeling he’s no mercenary and not looking to bend us over a barrel, he just wants some security.
With some of these 7 & 8 year contracts being thrown around, it would be dumb of him not to ask the question. If we give him 5 years that’s nothing outlandish in the current environment.

If I was him I'd go for a significant upgrade on a 2 year contract and blitz it. Then go like **** (I didn't even type it) to be up for a 4 year gig somewhere else on BIG $ a la Buddy.

But I'm not him.

 

[allrighty]

May not be a popular call, but I would look to someone else for the vice-captaincy for 2025. My general sense is that with Danger out, he's felt the pressure of leading the group and its affected his performances. Need to have him focusing on his own game and just dominating in the role we know he can dominate in.

Yep that has been quite clear.

 

[Badtemperedbadger]

Do you honestly think of the players I suggested depart (Stanley, Rohan, Bews, Hawkins & Tuohy) are best 22 in 2025?
Do you think any would want to play VFL football for the majority of the year in 2025?
Then you'll have the double whammy of kids we have put time into, wanting to leave as they don't see a pathway to getting into the team.
We have 10 or so players who will probably retire over the next 3 years. If the 5 I've mentioned retire at the end of the year and we can get some experience into the kids and/or open up the salary cap to bring in experienced players, hopefully by the time the rest retire the blow will be softened substantially.
You would still have 11 or so players with over 100 games being regulars next year. Another 6 - 8 who would be between 50-100 games. North, and Melbourne before that, cut too deep into their best 22 and were left with something like 4 players over 100 games and up to 10 with under 50 games experience in their team.
Holding on to any of them for the sake of not releasing too many players this year is the definition of kicking the can down the road.

I wasn’t suggesting the list of retirees was over the top nor do I suspect Kobe was either.
With the exception of Stanley (If we don’t get a back up ruckman) understand the point.

What I am saying is 9-10 changes is too deep (including young players, players leaving etc).
Taking more than five picks to the draft is wasteful so would need to bring in four trades if we lost 9-10, a scenario I think is very unlikely.

I suspect we’re all kind of agreeing here, just differing in the mechanisms of how we do that

 

[Finknottle]

Not sure if this has been discussed but does Tom Stewart need to be reinvented a la Blicavs? He has become largely ineffectual. Scott is not really into reinventing players unless forced on him by AFL rule changes.

Both out of form but Stewart is a lot more effective than Blicavs. If Blicavs has an injury then give him a month off. He's not helping us playing the way he currently is. If he's not injured then at 33 years old he's probably just slowed right down and 2025 might not be an option.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

None. Our stars under 25 that hold trade value we cant afford to give up.
And our old guys are either too old to have tradw value (see danger etc) or role guys that are worth more to us than the p50 wed get (see kolo oconnor etc)
The only player in the middle of value that we could structurally afford to lose is stengle if it gets us a r1 compo pick.

Stengle is an incredibly hard player to replace... Small forwards are almost more valuable than tall forwards with the modern day structures and set ups.

When you analyse the value of key forwards in the modern game it is bizzare.

Two of the past three premiership sides have had just average key forwards... Both collingwood and melbourne.

The link up and transition between the arcs seems more important these days than anything else in footy. Who wins the contesr around thr footy and defends and links up from hb to hf seens to win most often.

What collingwood have and we dont have up forward, are key forwards who launch aerially to compete and force the ball the ground.. That is all they do, but they do it well, then let their quality smalls go to work.

We actually dont havr quality talls who can compete aerially as bizzare as that is to say... Hawkins is terrible launching in a pack since his back troubles, cameron doesnt do it either. The only ones who offer some aerial ability are rohan and henry, with both being sub 190cm and the former out of sorts at 33yo.

Unusually all over thr ground this year we seem to be getting beaten aerially which is very uncharacteriatic of our team... Down back i do hold sdk somewhat accountable for this as he is 204cm and it should not be happening that 195cm key forwards are taking pack marks with him in the contest... That is not acceptable.. But is happening frequently.

I dont see us competing for a flag this year, but that is ok...

We are an incredibly well coached team that will fight it out, then re load over the summer.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

Both out of form but Stewart is a lot more effective than Blicavs. If Blicavs has an injury then give him a month off. He's not helping us playing the way he currently is. If he's not injured then at 33 years old he's probably just slowed right down and 2025 might not be an option.

Is the tagging of stewart honestly a new thing?? Or is it just being made a big deal of because he is bot as effective at the moment??

 

[Finknottle]

Is the tagging of stewart honestly a new thing?? Or is it just being made a big deal of because he is bot as effective at the moment??

I think that concussion should not be underestimated. Both Cameron and Stewart have been ineffective since their head knocks and they are unsure of themselves leading to turnovers.

 

[Finknottle]

Stengle is an incredibly hard player to replace... Small forwards are almost more valuable than tall forwards with the modern day structures and set ups.

When you analyse the value of key forwards in the modern game it is bizzare.

Two of the past three premiership sides have had just average key forwards... Both collingwood and melbourne.

The link up and transition between the arcs seems more important these days than anything else in footy. Who wins the contesr around thr footy and defends and links up from hb to hf seens to win most often.

What collingwood have and we dont have up forward, are key forwards who launch aerially to compete and force the ball the ground.. That is all they do, but they do it well, then let their quality smalls go to work.

We actually dont havr quality talls who can compete aerially as bizzare as that is to say... Hawkins is terrible launching in a pack since his back troubles, cameron doesnt do it either. The only ones who offer some aerial ability are rohan and henry, with both being sub 190cm and the former out of sorts at 33yo.

Unusually all over thr ground this year we seem to be getting beaten aerially which is very uncharacteriatic of our team... Down back i do hold sdk somewhat accountable for this as he is 204cm and it should not be happening that 195cm key forwards are taking pack marks with him in the contest... That is not acceptable.. But is happening frequently.

I dont see us competing for a flag this year, but that is ok...

We are an incredibly well coached team that will fight it out, then re load over the summer.

You make a really good point about the lack of arial contests up forward. I'd be happy if our forwards never went for marks and instead just tried to get a fist on the ball to stop it being marked by their opponents. Neale had been ok previously but there were multiple contests when he just jogged after his opponent as the ball came in. He needed to make a real effort to halve the contest. However, there aren't any role models for him to emulate. Sadly, our smallest forward Stengle is the most likey to contest an incoming ball.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I think that concussion should not be underestimated. Both Cameron and Stewart have been ineffective since their head knocks and they are unsure of themselves leading to turnovers.

I do get what they are trying to prioritise with cameron, transition football up and down the arcs, but it has not worked so far...

 

[terry_bright]

I wasn’t suggesting the list of retirees was over the top nor do I suspect Kobe was either.
With the exception of Stanley (If we don’t get a back up ruckman) understand the point.

What I am saying is 9-10 changes is too deep (including young players, players leaving etc).
Taking more than five picks to the draft is wasteful so would need to bring in four trades if we lost 9-10, a scenario I think is very unlikely.

I suspect we’re all kind of agreeing here, just differing in the mechanisms of how we do that

On Stanley, the guy looks cooked both mentally and physically. He is only going to get worse. I think he’ll retire anyway, so whether there is a chance he’ll stay isn’t going to be relevant.
I would rather give a state league ruckman who is hungry a chance or someone we get from another club on the cheap. Hopefully it’s only for a couple of years until Conway and Edwards develop. Maybe we get lucky and it’s someone who could be a regular.

 

[allrighty]

I think that concussion should not be underestimated. Both Cameron and Stewart have been ineffective since their head knocks and they are unsure of themselves leading to turnovers.

Many here have overlooked this. It is clear it has impacted. Not only cognition but also confidence.

Both suffered last year and both know the impact it had

 

[Pure_Ownage]

I wasn’t suggesting the list of retirees was over the top nor do I suspect Kobe was either.
With the exception of Stanley (If we don’t get a back up ruckman) understand the point.

What I am saying is 9-10 changes is too deep (including young players, players leaving etc).
Taking more than five picks to the draft is wasteful so would need to bring in four trades if we lost 9-10, a scenario I think is very unlikely.

I suspect we’re all kind of agreeing here, just differing in the mechanisms of how we do that

Its only too deep if youre filling every pick at the back end of the draft (then again we took 3 picks at the very back end of the draft last year and 2 look good already).
If you get say smith and a couple of FAs, elevate a rookie and then take 5 picks you could turn over 9 senior list spots.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Stengle is an incredibly hard player to replace... Small forwards are almost more valuable than tall forwards with the modern day structures and set ups.

When you analyse the value of key forwards in the modern game it is bizzare.

Two of the past three premiership sides have had just average key forwards... Both collingwood and melbourne.

The link up and transition between the arcs seems more important these days than anything else in footy. Who wins the contesr around thr footy and defends and links up from hb to hf seens to win most often.

What collingwood have and we dont have up forward, are key forwards who launch aerially to compete and force the ball the ground.. That is all they do, but they do it well, then let their quality smalls go to work.

We actually dont havr quality talls who can compete aerially as bizzare as that is to say... Hawkins is terrible launching in a pack since his back troubles, cameron doesnt do it either. The only ones who offer some aerial ability are rohan and henry, with both being sub 190cm and the former out of sorts at 33yo.

Unusually all over thr ground this year we seem to be getting beaten aerially which is very uncharacteriatic of our team... Down back i do hold sdk somewhat accountable for this as he is 204cm and it should not be happening that 195cm key forwards are taking pack marks with him in the contest... That is not acceptable.. But is happening frequently.

I dont see us competing for a flag this year, but that is ok...

We are an incredibly well coached team that will fight it out, then re load over the summer.

Yes and no.
I can do the math for you over the last 20 years and show you how many elite small fwds came as late picks or rookies compared to kpfs. Its chalk and cheese.
So my point was that it would be easier to replace stengle with a current listed player or a later pick than with say hawkins.
If neale doesnt work we are inevietably going to have to trade hard and with a lot of $ for a kpf as they are hard to draft without very early picks.

I do agree with you about our talls (which is a separate issue) and its why when we get the ball in transition we look good as our forwards impact scoreboard. But if we get slow ball in and the oppo can flood back we dont score as we dont take pack marks in that scenario.

 

[Art Vandelay_]

On Stanley, the guy looks cooked both mentally and physically. He is only going to get worse. I think he’ll retire anyway, so whether there is a chance he’ll stay isn’t going to be relevant.
I would rather give a state league ruckman who is hungry a chance or someone we get from another club on the cheap. Hopefully it’s only for a couple of years until Conway and Edwards develop. Maybe we get lucky and it’s someone who could be a regular.

Stanley going is a given. Could easily look at Visentini, Moyle, Preuss, Ladhams as players getting not many games that could support/challenge Conway next year.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Is the tagging of stewart honestly a new thing?? Or is it just being made a big deal of because he is bot as effective at the moment??

Of course it's not a new thing. But David King thinks opposition clubs went 150 games and 5x AAs before they thought "hey maybe we should try to stop this guy".

The media only notices it when it works.

Like in the game against Adelaide Nicks was potted for having no plan against Stewart. Except Pedlar went to him as a hard tag early. They had a really obvious plan.

And it failed miserably because Stewart killed him so the media went on about how they had no plan for Stewart which was utter nonsense.

 

[Play it Sam]

We are all going to fall on our guns if they decide to re enrol, for another year, all of-
Danger, Hawk, Duncan, Stanley, Tuohy, Parfitt, Blicavs

Cuthrie already a stayer, and haven't heard the others say adios yet.

Melty melt melts.

 

[Heckler]

After the bye Scott will re group .
Danger and Guthrie return to team
There will be a strong push for finals
Won't see any player management.
If push fails focus will switch to youth
This may see some early retirements.

Get games into Neale Conway Mullin etc.
Try older players in new positions
Stewart in centre SDK forward etc
Play Neale in defense to toughen up
Versatility is a valuable commodity
Try lots of kids at AFL level to find out.
This is the best way to identify talent.
Promising kids must be fast tracked.
Edwards looks skilled, smart and quick
Humphries has poise skill and pace.
Willis has speed, Clohesy toughness.

Post season, players work on weaknesses.
Bring in top fitness and strength coaches
Identify anyone for trade potential value
Kolo : J Henry : Parfitt : Blitz : for bait.
Trade for upcoming stars eg. Lord from PA
Early Picks are critical before Tassie enters.
Targeted draft strategy for top Midfielders
Draft Picks must be Tall Skilled and Quick
Search w.wide for gifted athletes to Rookie

 

[Footy Smarts]

I think people around here massively underrate Duncan. Yes he's lost some penetration in his kicking and a couple of yards of pace but he's still one of the smartest players in the league and is a key player for us. There's no way he'll be forced out this year with at least 5 in the queue before him (Bews, Tuohy, Stanley, Rohan and Hawkins).