Preview Rd 14 Bye week - time to look ahead.

[CatToTheFuture]

Is there any merit over time to bring the SDK to ruck conversation back? His brother is two years older and really came over age over the past two years. The objection I think has been about protecting SDK but it might well be better for him to have some freedom around the ground? Just a thought

Maybe, but I honestly just haven't liked his ruck work. We'd need COS to fill out enough first to consider it I think. Or Jeka to find that bit of competitiveness he needs.

It might be worth it just to put some more mongrel in him

 

[geelong_crazy26]

I'd be looking at 6 minimum list changes. More likely 8-9.
How they're replaced is the conundrum.

Hawkins, Stanley, Duncan, Tuohy, Rohan (all ret.), Bews*, Jeka, Murdoch, Parfitt (all delisted).
Would keep Willis and Hardie 1 more year. 2025 make or break.

Ditto Neale without Hawkins in the way. 2025 is make or break or we may need to search for a tall forward from elsewhere.

*Suspect if we delist Bews he will think he has more to offer and try for another club as opposed to the rest of the 10+ year vets who will all likely retire.

Im honestly not against the idea of flipping SDK forward and replacing him in defence with osullivan.

I am losing confidence by the day SDK will be a quality key defender with his regression of form.

He seems a very fragile key defender in the air.

Bruhn needs to get absolutely flogged on the track to improvd hid tank and work up and down the ground getting involved, jhye clark needs to live in the gym, same with conway.

Bring in hopefully an A grade mid... And we aren too shabby

 

[Strange Cat]

If only COS was more developed than they could drop SDK as a message as he has been very underwelming the last few years and it’s starting to be very concerning

 

[Baudolino]

Speaking of SDK, it's interesting to see someone in the media finally saying what many Cats fans have been observing for a year and a half now.

 

[CatRiot]

Is the VFL playing this week?

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Is the VFL playing this week?

Negatory ghost rider

 

[Finknottle]

I fear Duncan will get another year, if he wants it, so the club can carry him to 300 games, as he will fall just short this year.

To retire: Hawkins, Rohan, Tuohy, Bews, Stanley
Possible retirees: Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs. (They'll probably try to get them to go around 1 more year but I'm not sure they would want to)
Delisted: Foster, Hardie, Murdoch, Wiltshire

Name	Age	DOB
T Hawkins	35yr 10mth	21 Jul 1988
Z Tuohy	34yr 6mth	10 Dec 1989
P Dangerfield	34yr 2mth	5 Apr 1990
R Stanley	33yr 6mth	1 Dec 1990
M Blicavs	33yr 2mth	28 Mar 1991
G Rohan	33yr	7 Jun 1991
M Duncan	33yr	10 Jun 1991
C Guthrie	31yr 9mth	19 Aug 1992
T Stewart	31yr 2mth	15 Mar 1993
J Cameron	31yr 2mth	1 Apr 1993
J Bews	30yr 5mth	14 Dec 1993

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Great list analysis in this thread. Any thoughts on the club trading any players of market value to secure those desired couple of mids we need?

None. Our stars under 25 that hold trade value we cant afford to give up.
And our old guys are either too old to have tradw value (see danger etc) or role guys that are worth more to us than the p50 wed get (see kolo oconnor etc)
The only player in the middle of value that we could structurally afford to lose is stengle if it gets us a r1 compo pick.

 

[Finknottle]

None. Our stars under 25 that hold trade value we cant afford to give up.
And our old guys are either too old to have tradw value (see danger etc) or role guys that are worth more to us than the p50 wed get (see kolo oconnor etc)
The only player in the middle of value that we could structurally afford to lose is stengle if it gets us a r1 compo pick.

Currently our 3 best players are Stengle, Holmes, Miers. I think we need to hang onto them.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Currently our 3 best players are Stengle, Holmes, Miers. I think we need to hang onto them.

I agree holmes and miers are untradeable.

Stengle for me is possibly 20 % (and at the end of the day its his call to an extent hes UFA) tradeable. Hes a gun and i love him-i say it only bc if it was going to cost close to 1mil to keep him and you could instead put mannagh in the hole on base wage and get a top line young A grade kpf with the 1mil then i think it would be worth it. But since juh etc are signed that option doesnt exist so id rather keep stengle.

 

[Play it Sam]

I agree holmes and miers are untradeable.

Stengle for me is possibly 20 % (and at the end of the day its his call to an extent hes UFA) tradeable. Hes a gun and i love him-i say it only bc if it was going to cost close to 1mil to keep him and you could instead put mannagh in the hole on base wage and get a top line young A grade kpf with the 1mil then i think it would be worth it. But since juh etc are signed that option doesnt exist so id rather keep stengle.

For that reason I think we'll pay top dollar. Alternatively: What picks do Carlton have under their cards? Or is it a case of go West young man? Would that even be a factor? My concern is that his mentors, Anna and Eddie, have an in depth knowledge on the workings of several clubs, and would be keen to put the squeeze on. He found his mojo and acceptance with us, after a lot of discipline and hard work, achieving a premiership. For his own mental health, I really hope he stays and we give him his worth. Bird in hand stuff.

 

[Pollywaffle]

Speaking of SDK, it's interesting to see someone in the media finally saying what many Cats fans have been observing for a year and a half now.

He seems to be a laconic character and always was.
Ok when you are winning your battles, but that can be a bad look when you or the team are getting beaten.
My main complaint against him is the apparent absence of second effort.

 

[terry_bright]

What I want to see happen and what will eventuate could well be miles off, but FWIW.

DELISTED/RETIRED
Stanley, Tuohy, Rohan, Bews, Murdoch, Foster, Hawkins.
I reckon Parfitt will leave under FA.
Hardie will probably get the boot, but I'd keep him as a rookie for depth but not fussed either way.

I’d be surprised if Stengle leaves.
Duncan to still be there, and be 2025’s version of Tuohy. If you cut too deep with your experienced players it's a sure fire way to turn a strong club/culture into a rabble.

That's 8 out the door, 9 if you include Hardie.
It's also close to 1200 games experience out the door. That's a big hole to fill.

There are probably other irons in the fire, but Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

looks like the only genuine quality we could potentially add to the list at this stage, and would be more than a handy addition.
We still need to add another contested beast who can extract the ball. Someone like LDU (with his explosiveness and power) or Oliver (with great, quick hands). Otherwise someone in the short-term who can fill the void until we develop one or procure A-grade talent from elsewhere.
A key forward would be handy, because on exposed form, Neale isn't up to it IMO, but I hope I'm wrong. More than likely he'll be needed in the short-term but let's hope we throw some bait in the next couple of years in front of a JUH or Cadman type and they bite.
Some cheap ruck depth would be handy as Furphy & Edwards are too young and inexperienced to fill the void right now. Bryan from Essendon sort of player would be handy.

Happily give up draft picks for the next couple of years to add some quality and experience to replace what we'll lose over the next 18 months.

We have about a dozen players 22 and under, who are quality or have tremendous upside.
Bruhn, Conway, Holmes, Knevitt, Clark, O'Sullivan, Stevens, Humphries, Dempsey, Neale(?), O.Henry, Clohesy.
Mullin is a bit older but he's young in terms of experience and also has tremendous upside.
Edwards has played 3 qtrs of football, so you really can't make an assessment there.
A few won't make the grade, but it's a reasonably strong base to build from, and with a few additions who can compliment and aid in their development, we'll be okay.

Best 23 for 2025.

B Kolo, SDK, Zuthrie
HB Stewart, J.Henry, Humphries
C Dempsey, Bruhn, B.Smith/Knevitt/Duncan
HF Close, Cameron, Miers
F O.Henry, Neale, Stengle
Foll Conway, Holmes, Atkins
Int & Sub Danger, Blicavs, Mullin, Bowes, Cuthrie

Em O'Connor, Clohesy, O'Sullivan, Stevens, Clark

 

[Badtemperedbadger]

Its Bye week.

And we all know how well we roll after the bye.
But thats for next week.

This week, lets look way ahead to next year.

At the turn in the 2024 season, we are middle of the road after a roaring start.

Rather than picking where we will finish, lets look at

Who will still have a number in 2025,
Who has a number and gets more games
Whom has a number and will be looking at a new name under it on the locker.


Its all just speculation and im not including FA or trades - going off the list we have now.

EG: -

Stil has a number (locked into 23)
Bruhn
Cameron
Kolo
Holmes
Bowes
SDK
Stengle
Dempsey
Guthrie
Atkins
Miers
PFD
Ollie Henry
Jack Henry
Zuthrie
MOC
Stewy
Close
Blitz





Has number and will have new name on it in 2025
Stanley
Touhy
Duncan
Hawkins.
Hardie.
Willis
Rohan
Bews

That 8 list spots

Has number and getting more games:
Mannagh
Neale
Clohesy
Parfitt
Humphries
Edwards
Clark
Conway
Knevitt
COS
Stevens
Humphries
Mullin



VFL
Foster
Wiltshire
Murdoch
Furphy
Jeka


Just shows how much experience we are losing this year alone.

Makes sense as to why we are middle of the road.
Things to build with but needs more to be Top 4 team again.

GO Catters

My questions for this post are:

If we delist Stanley or he retires who backs up Conway?
Do we honestly want to make 8- 9 changes?

We don’t want to be taking complete Hail Mary picks that late in the draft.
We may trade a player or two in, but six draft picks I think is too many.

I know it’s an unpopular view but I think unless we trade in a second string ruckman, maybe we keep Stanley as back up.
Blitz, Neale and SDK are ok as part time but not legitimate back up.

I think at least three and probably four move on or retire.
Hawk, Tuohy, Bews Rohan.
I’ve heard Duncan say he is quite possible to play on and I’m ok with this.

That still leaves a couple of possible delisting of the the younger brigade but I don’t want to see us taking more than five picks max to the draft.

Cuthrie may benefit from having a rest this year, similar to Paddy.
Blitz still has a year in him, but it’s a bit similar to recent times, constant changes due to aging list.

 

[PzBlinky]

I think we're getting ahead of ourselves. Really need to focus on this week.

That said, we'd have to be big favourites to crush the bye. We may not be flying, but we're no 2012 Port. I don't expect much of a percentage booster (if any) but hopefully we get through with no injuries or suspensions. Rumours are the bye is pretty soft, so hoping it's a bruise-free encounter and we go in against the Blues fresh and coming off a good win...

 

[terry_bright]

My questions for this post are:

If we delist Stanley or he retires who backs up Conway?
Do we honestly want to make 8- 9 changes?

We don’t want to be taking complete Hail Mary picks that late in the draft.
We may trade a player or two in, but six draft picks I think is too many.

I know it’s an unpopular view but I think unless we trade in a second string ruckman, maybe we keep Stanley as back up.
Blitz, Neale and SDK are ok as part time but not legitimate back up.

I think at least three and probably four move on or retire.
Hawk, Tuohy, Bews Rohan.
I’ve heard Duncan say he is quite possible to play on and I’m ok with this.

That still leaves a couple of possible delisting of the the younger brigade but I don’t want to see us taking more than five picks max to the draft.

Cuthrie may benefit from having a rest this year, similar to Paddy.
Blitz still has a year in him, but it’s a bit similar to recent times, constant changes due to aging list.

If we don’t make changes this year we’re just kicking the can down the road to the end of 2025/2026 and it will only be exacerbated.
I’m all for replacing the experience we will lose, it’s essential IMO, but we can promote from the rookie list (Clohesy) or run with a spot or 2 less on the primary list.

Late picks don’t concern me. We have the best record in the AFL for finding diamonds in the rough with late picks. Arguably better there than we have been with picks in the 15-25 range, mind you that seems to have improved in the last couple of drafts.

 

[standupand]

To retire: Hawkins, Rohan, Tuohy, Bews, Stanley
Possible retirees: Dangerfield, Duncan, Blicavs. (They'll probably try to get them to go around 1 more year but I'm not sure they would want to)
Delisted: Foster, Hardie, Murdoch, Wiltshire

Name	Age	DOB
T Hawkins	35yr 10mth	21 Jul 1988
Z Tuohy	34yr 6mth	10 Dec 1989
P Dangerfield	34yr 2mth	5 Apr 1990
R Stanley	33yr 6mth	1 Dec 1990
M Blicavs	33yr 2mth	28 Mar 1991
G Rohan	33yr	7 Jun 1991
M Duncan	33yr	10 Jun 1991
C Guthrie	31yr 9mth	19 Aug 1992
T Stewart	31yr 2mth	15 Mar 1993
J Cameron	31yr 2mth	1 Apr 1993
J Bews	30yr 5mth	14 Dec 1993

Harsh on Wiltshire to be delisting after less than 12 months. Surely it's worth seeing how he goes after a couple of pre-seasons in the system?

 

[Sttew]

Not sure if this has been discussed but does Tom Stewart need to be reinvented a la Blicavs? He has become largely ineffectual. Scott is not really into reinventing players unless forced on him by AFL rule changes.

 

[terry_bright]

For that reason I think we'll pay top dollar. Alternatively: What picks do Carlton have under their cards? Or is it a case of go West young man? Would that even be a factor? My concern is that his mentors, Anna and Eddie, have an in depth knowledge on the workings of several clubs, and would be keen to put the squeeze on. He found his mojo and acceptance with us, after a lot of discipline and hard work, achieving a premiership. For his own mental health, I really hope he stays and we give him his worth. Bird in hand stuff.

Agreed.
Either we pay top dollar, but I tend to think we’ll add a year on top of our offer.
I have a feeling he’s no mercenary and not looking to bend us over a barrel, he just wants some security.
With some of these 7 & 8 year contracts being thrown around, it would be dumb of him not to ask the question. If we give him 5 years that’s nothing outlandish in the current environment.

 

[Jeff76]

The rest of this year depends on Guthrie and Dangers bodies, if Guthrie can find form and Dangers hammie can hold up we might just make finals.
My biggest disappointment so far this year has been SDK, I know a few on here stick up for him but he’s been terrible.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[standupand]

Not sure if this has been discussed but does Tom Stewart need to be reinvented a la Blicavs? He has become largely ineffectual. Scott is not really into reinventing players unless forced on him by AFL rule changes.

May not be a popular call, but I would look to someone else for the vice-captaincy for 2025. My general sense is that with Danger out, he's felt the pressure of leading the group and its affected his performances. Need to have him focusing on his own game and just dominating in the role we know he can dominate in.

 

[Kobe Gryant]

Harsh on Wiltshire to be delisting after less than 12 months. Surely it's worth seeing how he goes after a couple of pre-seasons in the system?

He's contracted too. Delisting him and paying him out for no good reason doesn't make any sense.

Maybe he makes it, maybe he doesn't...but with his lack of availability so far we've got no idea, and we're not going to find out by just cutting him.

If it's the same again next year when he's OOC you have the conversation...but otherwise it's just blatant list mismanagement.

 

[Badtemperedbadger]

If we don’t make changes this year we’re just kicking the can down the road to the end of 2025/2026 and it will only be exacerbated.
I’m all for replacing the experience we will lose, it’s essential IMO, but we can promote from the rookie list (Clohesy) or run with a spot or 2 less on the primary list.

Late picks don’t concern me. We have the best record in the AFL for finding diamonds in the rough with late picks. Arguably better there than we have been with picks in the 15-25 range, mind you that seems to have improved in the last couple of drafts.

Not what I’m saying.
Yes agree we don’t want to kick the can down the road.
However don’t need to do in one hit.
The drafting hit/miss is getting better all the time, yes you may pick up a diamond in the rough at 50 or 60 but most likely not at 90 or later which is what you get with too many picks.
Yes go with a couple less on the main list, leave room if needed for MSD

I still think there’s value with Stanley if no mature ruck picked up, Duncan can go another year (hopefully)
Then next year could be Paddy, Blitz, Dunc. Maybe Cuthrie and one or two others.
My point is you don’t need to pull the whole house down to refurbish the kitchen and or bathroom particularly as there is still some worth to experienced players being around, be it VFL/AFL.

We’ve seen what’s happened at teams like North.
Lots of young talent need to around experienced players to develop, this should never be underestimated.

It’s not just on field exploits but offfield professionalism that leads to better footballers overall.
Think before we act rather than just slash and burn we can and have managed turnover judiciously in the past. Why change now?

 

[Kobe Gryant]

If we don’t make changes this year we’re just kicking the can down the road to the end of 2025/2026 and it will only be exacerbated.
I’m all for replacing the experience we will lose, it’s essential IMO, but we can promote from the rookie list (Clohesy) or run with a spot or 2 less on the primary list.

Late picks don’t concern me. We have the best record in the AFL for finding diamonds in the rough with late picks. Arguably better there than we have been with picks in the 15-25 range, mind you that seems to have improved in the last couple of drafts.

It's not kicking the can down the road though. That implies that there's no actual reason to do it.

You stagger it on purpose, for instance:

If we do it all right now, our young core of Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, O'Sullivan, Henry, Conway, Dempsey, SDK, & Neale are forced to be our best players week on week, bashing into their more senior opponents when they're not ready.

Some may swim, but history says most sink in that scenario. It's the easiest way to ruin promising youngsters.

On the other hand, if you stagger the retirements, that young core is taking the reigns when they're 23-25, which is typically the beginning of a players prime years.

It makes the transition as close to seamless as you can get.

Now, we absolutely have some veterans who aren't pulling their weight, and should be pushed to hang them up...but it can't be all of them.

We also need somebody like Smith to come in to help bridge the gap between the Dangerfield, Guthrie, & Duncan era to the Holmes, Bruhn, & Clark era.

Smith, another player of a similar age and quality, alongside Close, Miers, Stengle, Jenry, Zuthrie, Bowes, & Atkins, with veterans who can still contribute in Guthrie, Stewart, Dangerfield, & Cameron is enough to bridge that transition between eras.

It'll keep us afloat, and in a pretty weak era for footy, it could even have us as a finals/top 4 chance over the next couple years even while we're transitioning.

Not dissimilar to this year in a way, and the Swans in '21 & '22 were similar too, and that's what I expect the club is trying to emulate.

 

[Badtemperedbadger]

It's not kicking the can down the road though. That implies that there's no actual reason to do it.

You stagger it on purpose, for instance:

If we do it all right now, our young core of Holmes, Bruhn, Clark, O'Sullivan, Henry, Conway, Dempsey, SDK, & Neale are forced to be our best players week on week, bashing into their more senior opponents when they're not ready.

Some may swim, but history says most sink in that scenario. It's the easiest way to ruin promising youngsters.

On the other hand, if you stagger the retirements, that young core is taking the reigns when they're 23-25, which is typically the beginning of a players prime years.

It makes the transition as close to seamless as you can get.

Now, we absolutely have some veterans who aren't pulling their weight, and should be pushed to hang them up...but it can't be all of them.

We also need somebody like Smith to come in to help bridge the gap between the Dangerfield, Guthrie, & Duncan era to the Holmes, Bruhn, & Clark era.

Smith, another player of a similar age and quality, alongside Close, Miers, Stengle, Jenry, Zuthrie, Bowes, & Atkins, with veterans who can still contribute in Guthrie, Stewart, Dangerfield, & Cameron is enough to bridge that transition between eras.

It'll keep us afloat, and in a pretty weak era for footy, it could even have us as a finals/top 4 chance over the next couple years even while we're transitioning.

Not dissimilar to this year in a way, and the Swans in '21 & '22 were similar too, and that's what I expect the club is trying to emulate.

All good points and put way more succinctly than me