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Sydney Swans vs CarltonSaturday July 23rd 2016
Sydney Cricket Ground: 1:45 P.M
TV: Fox Footy
Early Weather Prediction: 19* Early Showers
History: Head to Head Record – Played 57 Games
Sydney 32 – 27 Carlton
Last 5: Sydney 5 -0 Carlton
2016 Snapshot:
Sydney – 5th 135.51%, 11 W- 5 L.
The Swans have had a rollercoaster season in 2016, their highs have been dazzling with some brilliant victories in the early stages of the season including a massive 80 point victory in Rd 1 over Collingwood, an upset 38 point win over Geelong at Simmonds Stadium in round 16 and a grinding 14 point victory over three time reigning premiers Hawthorn in an emotional contest at the MCG in round 9. These highs however have been overshadowed by some haunting defeats including an after the siren goal from Sam Lloyd in a 1 point loss to Richmond in round 8, a late Jason Johannisen goal sealing a 4 point defeat to the Western Bulldogs in round 15 and just last week a late goal from Cyril Rioli resulted in a 5 point loss to Hawthorn at the SCG.
The biggest positive to come out of 2016 so far for Sydney has been the return of superstar forward Lance Franklin. After Franklin’s stint away from the game at the end of 2016 to battle personal problems, the former Hawk star has returned to his best form and is currently sitting second in the Coleman medal race. Daniel Hanneberry and Luke Parker have continued to shine through the middle and are both potential candidates for this years’ Brownlow medal. While in the backline Dane Rampe has elevated his game to join teammate Nick Smith as one of the game’s best small defenders. The ruck has proved to be the Achilles heel for Sydney in 2016, especially as when in-form big man Kurt Tippet was sidelined for 2 months with a hamstring injury. Recruit Callum Sinclair has struggled in his quest to establish himself as a number one ruckman and the Swans are constantly seeing themselves outpointed in that area.
With September looming and a top 4 spot up for grabs, Sydney have dropped multiple winnable games and now find themselves in a situation where any more mistakes could see their chances of a double chance lost.
Carlton - 14th 78.87%, 6W, 10 L
Little was expected of Carlton in 2016, coming off a wooden spoon season. Most pundits expected the Blues to be in a battle for the wooden spoon with rivals Essendon, and 4 wins for the season was a modest prediction. The first half of the season however surprised even the most optimistic of Carlton fans. After a frustrating first month to the season, in which although the Blues played with spirit they ultimately fell short in all four contests, Carlton shocked the AFL world when they won their next 4 games, and 6 out of the next 7. Despite this impressive run of form, the Blues have been brought back down to earth over the past month with 4 consecutive losses reminding their loyal supporters of the reality of their situation.
Carlton’s backline has often been a laughing stock over the past 10-15 years, even when they were competing for top 4 honors in 2011, their weakness was often their undersized and undermanned defense. New coach Brendan Bolton has reinvented the team’s defensive mindset and with help from a resurgent Sam Rowe, as well as assistance by youngsters Lachie Plowman and Jacob Weitering, Carlton’s key defensive posts are finally being held down by players in which the fans can trust. In addition to the key defensive stalwarts, half back flankers Kade Simpson and Sam Docherty have been simply brilliant in 2016 for Carlton, with both players likely to be in a battle for All-Australian honors and most probably for Carlton’s Best and Fairest award. Midfielders Bryce Gibbs and Patrick Cripps’ early season form had them in discussion for individual accolades however dips in form and struggles with injury have seen both of their seasons derailed.
Despite the improvement in the defensive half of the ground, Carlton continue to struggle to develop an identity in the forward line. For a club that has lacked a true forward target since Brendan Fevola was traded at the end of 2009, Levi Casboult has attempted to fill this position to underwhelming and disappointing effect. Carlton have also lacked the skill and creativity of a quality small forward since Eddie Betts and Jeff Garlett departed the club. Midfielder Bryce Gibbs and the defensive minded forward Matthew Wright currently lead the Blues’ goal kicking tally with a measly 16.
Despite quiet optimism from Carlton fans at the half way mark, that their team could still make something of 2016, in reality it has been a long season and the final 6 weeks will be a test to the resiliency and drive of the Carlton team. With senior players playing for their careers, and youngsters like Charlie Curnow, Jack Silvagni and Jacob Weitering eager to gain experience for their future, it is not all pessimism at Carlton and despite all the recent dark times their future under Brendan Bolton does have light.
Key Battles:
Josh Kennedy vs Patrick Cripps: Arguably the two best clearance players in the AFL, for Cripps to even be in this position at such a young age is staggering, while Kennedy has been as consistent a player you will find since moving from Hawthorn at the end of 2009. Getting first hands on the ball is crucial to quick inside 50’s. If the Swans’ star can get going, then it sets them up perfectly and he is often the barometer for how the team plays collectively.
Dan Hannebery vs Ed Curonow: The 2010 Rising Star winner is now undisputable as one of the games great on-ballers. The 2 time All-Australian who will be looking to make it 3 in 2016, will likely be closely tagged by the hard-running Curnow. Curnow has transformed his game into an effective two-way player, who can hold dangerous opposition midfielders to low possession tallies while racking them up himself.
Lance Franklin vs Sam Rowe: A matchup that would have given Carlton supporters nightmares 12 months ago, Blues fans would be quietly optimistic that their journeyman full back will give as a good a contest as possible against the superstar Swan. After holding Coleman medalist and 2016 leader, Josh Kennedy to only 2 goals, Rowe will again be tested on the mercurial and athletic talent Franklin. Franklin has often been a thorn in Carltons side and booted 4 when the sides last met in Rd 2.
Prediction: The SCG has not been a happy hunting ground for Carlton, with the Blues only winning ten of their 25 visits to the ground. Although Carlton fans are optimistic about what the future holds under bright coach Brendan Bolton, 2016 and most likely the next 1-2 seasons are unlikely to provide them with many positive results.
With a top 4, and potentially top 2 spot up for grabs the Swans simply can’t afford to let any more games slip through their fingers. Off the back of another frustrating loss in which the Swans’ mental toughness surely must come into question, expect the team in red and white to send a message to their rivals at the expense of a tiring Carlton team.
Tip: Sydney by 57 points
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