Preview Round 16 - Essendon Bombers vs Port Adelaide - Saturday, July 1st - 7:25 pm - MCG - Ridley's Revenge

[Lore]

Wasn't there some kind of stat floating around that calculated the expected difficulty of a given kick and ranked players based on effectiveness vs expected difficulty?

Someone like Kelly tends to take easier, safe kicks to team-mates, which is exactly what you'd want him to do, whereas players like Ridley or Merrett are taking the more difficult kicks and (generally) executing them pretty well.

I'm pretty sure it was a radio segment with the champion data guy using a few examples. It's generally not publicly available

Just found this from the start of June though, under the graphs there are opportunities to download their data:

It's an age-old question: What makes a good kick in the AFL?

What constitutes an effective or ineffective kick has been discussed for years, but one data scientist thinks he may have unlocked the next evolution of settling this debate, write Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.

www.abc.net.au

 

[faible]

I'm pretty sure it was a radio segment with the champion data guy using a few examples. It's generally not publicly available

Just found this from the start of June though, under the graphs there are opportunities to download their data:

It's an age-old question: What makes a good kick in the AFL?

What constitutes an effective or ineffective kick has been discussed for years, but one data scientist thinks he may have unlocked the next evolution of settling this debate, write Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.

www.abc.net.au

Would be very interesting to see the full suite of stats produced by Champion Data.

 

[silk]

Hey All. I've updated the preview post. It's a little underwhelming this week as I'm flat out currently, but please enjoy anyways.

 

[Vindicater]

Kelly's kicking mechanics are fine and he hits targets.

His mental speed to make a decision is what kills him. Just misses so many opportunities to keep the ball moving forward and then has to chip instead (this inflating his accuracy stat)

 

[andleanback]

Kelly's kicking mechanics are fine and he hits targets.

His mental speed to make a decision is what kills him. Just misses so many opportunities to keep the ball moving forward and then has to chip instead (this inflating his accuracy stat)

You don’t want him biting off an option over 30m imo.

 

[citizen-erased]

I'm pretty sure it was a radio segment with the champion data guy using a few examples. It's generally not publicly available

Just found this from the start of June though, under the graphs there are opportunities to download their data:

It's an age-old question: What makes a good kick in the AFL?

What constitutes an effective or ineffective kick has been discussed for years, but one data scientist thinks he may have unlocked the next evolution of settling this debate, write Cody Atkinson and Sean Lawson.

www.abc.net.au

this is where stats can be misleading.

Good kick requires so many considerations it's best judged with a eye ball test

fwiw - the good kicks on our team for me are merrett, tippa, langford, martin, ridley, redman, Wright and Mass.

what they have is the speed of mind to weigh options without holding the game up longer than necessary and the ability to execute a kick to where it needs to go.
They're all excellent kicks on goal too.

 

[ant555]

Need to be careful with that stat, the defenders often have inflated kicking stats due to chipping it around uncontested in the backline after a kick in or switching sides etc. On that basis it's better to use rankings or benchmarking comparing to similar players.

That said, Ridley and Redman have the most effective at the club, in fact they are equal fifth in the league for average number of effective kicks (Redman is also 3rd for total EK). Ridley is also just about the best kick efficiency (KE%) in the comp (including non-defenders), after a handful of players who've barely had a disposal this year and have skewed stats from the small sample size.

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Kelly stacks up well for kick efficiency: he's ahead of Hind, Heppell and McGrath on that score with a greater proportion of the kicks he makes going to a teammate. He doesn't use it as much as the other defenders so his EK is below average according to the competition benchmarks for non-key defenders; so he only kicks it 8 times each game on average but a six and a half of those kicks go to a teammate.


Agree. He is not the problem. Fix the structure and get them defending properly and the backline should be a lot more functional.

I don't think you can talk about the defenders without talking about the mids, without talking about the forward pressure and lack thereof.

We dropped Menzie to bring Parish back in, seemingly without pushing another small into that forward pressure role. So we had Guelfi and Snelling as our "smalls", but we all know Snelling isn't chained to the pocket and doesn't spend much time in F50. In order to have an extra mid running around between the arcs, you either lose a forward altogether or someone else has to start in the forward line, but instead of a mid rotation we seemed to have the taller players playing deeper.

We struggled to trap the ball in the forward line, our ball movement is slower with the clamps on Redman, and McGrath the only linebreaker with no Hind, no Shiel, no Davey, no Walla... We had Merrett and Martin but we didn't get the ball in their hands a lot either. "The best defence is a good offence". Without the offensive capability, the team defence is being tested. When the team defence fails the backline is under the pump, having to work back to defend instead of attacking (because that's what you do when your team don't have the ball!)

I think either Scott, Parish or Caldwell mentioned after the game that Fremantle's strategy focused on using the width of the ground after QT. I think what they're talking about is the tendency for our guys to get sucked into the contest, they don't hold width, or spread hard enough to get into those positions, which created a weak point for Freo to exploit. I think once they started playing body on body at the contest it made it harder for our mids to actually win the ball, and thus more determined to do so which perhaps exacerbates the getting sucked in problem.

What needed to happen was for one of Hobbs or Caldwell to take Snelling's role between the arcs and Snelling gets Menzie's spot in the forward line, or Hobbs/Caldwell alternate in Menzie's role. Alternatively, you push Merrett to half-back to provide some rebound in lieu of Hind, which takes him out of the midfield rotation and potentially frees up Redman as well since they can't stop all of the rebound all of the time.

Another option is to align more closely with the structure we used in R1, which was pretty similar except for the small forwards: R1 was Menzie/Davey+Walla (sub), and currently we have Guelfi/Snelling+Menzie (sub). If we dropped Snelling to the VFL, Hobbs or Caldwell play the Snelling role between the arcs, and Menzie, Davey or Walla come into the forward line (don't think Walla is fit enough yet).

I use the stat on him as a defender. I am not comparing him to a midfielder. People are saying he is a bad kick. He is not. He stays in his lane and he hits targets more often than not. It is not really a comparison I am making. MY point is with what he does disposal wise he is not a bad kick.

 

[ant555]

Kelly's kicking mechanics are fine and he hits targets.

His mental speed to make a decision is what kills him. Just misses so many opportunities to keep the ball moving forward and then has to chip instead (this inflating his accuracy stat)

I do not agree. Watching him live often he has limited options to go to. A lot of the time he takes the quick 45 kick when the players are in place.

 

[ant555]

this is where stats can be misleading.

Good kick requires so many considerations it's best judged with a eye ball test

fwiw - the good kicks on our team for me are merrett, tippa, langford, martin, ridley, redman, Wright and Mass.

what they have is the speed of mind to weigh options without holding the game up longer than necessary and the ability to execute a kick to where it needs to go.
They're all excellent kicks on goal too.

Stats are only misleading when you use them out of context like comparing Kelly's kicking efficiency to Parish when there are different circumstances. I think it is fair to compare Kelly to other defenders. The eye ball test can be misleading as well. Sometimes people see what they want to see. Martin absolutely butchered a number of kicks on Saturday. They do not stick in the memory.

 

[Keystone agony]

this is where stats can be misleading.

Good kick requires so many considerations it's best judged with a eye ball test

fwiw - the good kicks on our team for me are merrett, tippa, langford, martin, ridley, redman, Wright and Mass.

what they have is the speed of mind to weigh options without holding the game up longer than necessary and the ability to execute a kick to where it needs to go.
They're all excellent kicks on goal too.

Threat rating x retention rate

Kellys retention rate be good as per his KE% but his threat rating would be poor

From memory Hind rated as one of the best if not the best in the comp

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I do not agree. Watching him live often he has limited options to go to. A lot of the time he takes the quick 45 kick when the players are in place.

IMO a large part of what plays into him being a "bad kick" isnt his technique, its his inability to play on to open space up. His options will always be limited to what the opposition allow because he cant make new options appear with movement.

 

[citizen-erased]

Threat rating x retention rate

Kellys retention rate be good as per his KE% but his threat rating would be poor

From memory Hind rated as one of the best if not the best in the comp

Outcomes based is interesting, but how much does it factor in.
is it just the retention of the ball from the kick and how much 'threat' you bite off?

If the kick goes long and is marked, but hems in the next option does that not just kick the can down the road a little.

the dinky sideways kick can be low threat, but in a chain of 4-5 that shift the opposition defence around, create holes and then the last becomes the super effective kick, is it not sum of parts.

i.e. if the 2nd kick isn't taken, the 5th never happens.

Key for me is executing timely enough, to the players advantage, and not transferring pressure (which is a combination of performing it under pressure and not creating it for a team mate)

I'd even say picking the right contest.
Weid in a 1 on 1 in front of goal over Wright in a 2 on 1 by the boundary vs. Weid 1 on 1 over Wright in a 2 on 1 in front of goal ---> good kicks will assess those options, shape the kick and pick the right one for the moment.

 

[Keystone agony]

Outcomes based is interesting, but how much does it factor in.
is it just the retention of the ball from the kick and how much 'threat' you bite off?

If the kick goes long and is marked, but hems in the next option does that not just kick the can down the road a little.

the dinky sideways kick can be low threat, but in a chain of 4-5 that shift the opposition defence around, create holes and then the last becomes the super effective kick, is it not sum of parts.

i.e. if the 2nd kick isn't taken, the 5th never happens.

Key for me is executing timely enough, to the players advantage, and not transferring pressure (which is a combination of performing it under pressure and not creating it for a team mate)

I'd even say picking the right contest.
Weid in a 1 on 1 in front of goal over Wright in a 2 on 1 by the boundary vs. Weid 1 on 1 over Wright in a 2 on 1 in front of goal ---> good kicks will assess those options, shape the kick and pick the right one for the moment.

Retention rate is your club retaining the ball

Threat rating is a whole mix of things

Like kicks i50 on certain angles over certain distances is a higher threat rating then a 15 sideways kick of Kelly to Ridley in the last line of defence

It takes into account pressure on ball carrier, thats a major criteria

Grey area there like every stat

 

[Ambrosia]

Threat rating x retention rate

Kellys retention rate be good as per his KE% but his threat rating would be poor

From memory Hind rated as one of the best if not the best in the comp

Yeah Hind had an unreal kicking year in 2021. Was in the top handful in the league for retention going inside 50.

It seems like he is suffering age related decline and that form is unreachable for him atm though.

 

[DallasCrane316]

Is Voss a genuine chance this week?

 

[eth-dog]

Is Voss a genuine chance this week?

View attachment 1722827

It's his first good game in a while. I'd say no

 

[Runk]

Is Voss a genuine chance this week?

View attachment 1722827

Possibly.

I say possibly because he was a standout of the VFL game on Sunday (one of the few).

The guy knows how to get it, rucks well and has plenty of shots but his conversion levels aren't great. Story of Essendon really.

 

[VelvetSledge]

Blind faith in the post-bye curse makes me think we're a chance here.

Not much else to go off unfortunately

 

[bennyg12]

Is Voss a genuine chance this week?

View attachment 1722827

I hope so

 

[Powertron]

IMO a large part of what plays into him being a "bad kick" isnt his technique, its his inability to play on to open space up. His options will always be limited to what the opposition allow because he cant make new options appear with movement.

An oppo supports view on Kelly having watched him a bit prior to joining the bombers is this.

He doesn’t do much wrong per se in terms of turnover or being out of position but he can slow quick ball movement with his conservative approach.

Hind provides a heap of rebound and dare which I think is what you need off half back against us otherwise we’ll just lock it down on transition and force a long kick to contest.

 

[DallasCrane316]

Draper pretty much ruled himself out on 7 news.

He hasn’t trained at all. So he’s “less than likely”

 

[BomberTime]

In: Wanganeen, Baldwin, Voss, Hind

Out: Snelling, Kelly, BZT, Weide ( he’s just not physical enough and at least Voss can provide that)

McGrath Baldwin Ridley
Redman Laverde Heppell
Martin Parish Durham
Stringer Voss Langford
Menzie Wright Guelfi
Phillips Merrett Hobbs
Perkins Hind Caldwell Bryan
Wanganeen

 

[Keystone agony]

Do wonder if Voss would be good with Allir

Not saying Allir necessarily takes him over Wright but if he does, Voss leads up and we either need to use him as Allir sags off or if we kick long Allir destroys us

Voss also great at creating contest could void the IM of Allir a bit

 

[Ambrosia]

It’s been regularly discussed that we are 18th in terms of defending transition but surviving because we are good at scoring from d50. Why not try leaning into that sort of play style and be a fast offensive team:

- Drop Kelly and Heppell to bring in Hind/Mass and slide a Caldwell/Perkins to HBF.

- Only play one of Weid or 2nd Ruck and bring in another running player.

Unrelated to the above but bring would also bring in Baldwin for Laverde.

 

[Keystone agony]

It’s been regularly discussed that we are 18th in terms of defending transition but surviving because we are good at scoring from d50. Why not try leaning into that sort of play style more into being a fast offensive team:

- Drop Kelly and Heppell to bring in Hind/Mass and slide a Caldwell/Perkins to HBF.

- Only play one of Weid or 2nd Ruck and bring in another running player.

Unrelated to the above but bring would also bring in Baldwin for Laverde.

Because people think it doesnt win finals

But weve seen Collingwoods success

Quicker rebound, less time for opposition to setup full ground zones which have been in place so long now that teams are so quick and good at doing it