Preview Round 16, Sydney vs Geelong, Friday 30 June 7:50pm @ SCG

[Mr Meow]

Assuming no Danger, but I see he's a good chance?

Out: Cameron
In: Ratugolea

FB: Bews De Koning J.Henry
HB: Stewart Ratugolea Z.Guthrie
C: Duncan Blicavs Smith
HF: Miers Rohan Close
FF: O.Henry Hawkins Stengle
FOL: Stanley Bruhn Holmes
IC: Atkins Tuohy Kolodjashnij O'Connor Bowes(sub)

We lose a forward so I'd use Tuohy on a forward flank early (Smith is also capable in this role) then swing J.Henry up there later in the match to stretch them. O'Connor plug and play between mids and half back. Bowes on as an extra midfielder late for one of the old boys or talls.

 

[FredLeDeux]

We lose a forward so I'd use Tuohy on a forward flank early (Smith is also capable in this role) then swing J.Henry up there later in the match to stretch them. O'Connor plug and play between mids and half back. Bowes on as an extra midfielder late for one of the old boys or talls.

I think the MC is ahead of you, that's where he's been killing them early in games the last few weeks

 

[Mr Meow]

I think the MC is ahead of you, that's where he's been killing them early in games the last few weeks

Yeah I've noticed it too. Maybe an even more prominent forward cameo? On their small ground he should make the distance from the "50m" line at least.

 

[Sire of Claude]

Smith must play otherwise we'd have no leftie in the team - unthinkable!

The Swans will be a different prospect this week; their mids and wingers in particular seem to have got their act together. I'm not convinced Danger is ready to go. I expect a close game. As always straight shooting will go a long way.

Sav will certainly play if he's fit and either Henry or SDK will spend time forward.

It's hard to see how Knevitt or Dempsey get in though personally I'd omit Bowes - he is very slow and his disposal hasn't been what it's cracked up to be.

 

[you pick one]

For the snags.
OUT: Cameron Guthrie

29

Cameron Guthrie

Age

32

Ht

187cm

Wt

87kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

17.7

4star

K

8.2

3star

HB

9.5

5star

M

3.1

3star

T

3.9

5star

CL

2.3

4star

D

18.7

4star

K

9.7

4star

HB

9.0

4star

M

4.6

4star

T

3.6

4star

CL

3.3

4star

D

11.0

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

1.2

2star

T

4.0

5star

CL

0.4

3star

In: Sav, Danger.
I'm hoping we muscle up against Sydney that's their weakness.
PS could easily have gone with Kolo instead of Guthrie

 

[Mr Meow]

For the snags.
OUT: Cameron Guthrie
In: Sav, Danger.
I'm hoping we muscle up against Sydney that's their weakness.
PS could easily have gone with Kolo instead of Guthrie

Is he finally getting surgery on that pesky turf toe? He hasn't looked the same player at half back anyway.

 

[you pick one]

Is he finally getting surgery on that pesky turf toe? He hasn't looked the same player at half back anyway.

Straight through to the keeper.

 

[Mr Meow]

Straight through to the keeper.

Given my joke was based on your joke, I highly doubt that.

 

[Chinacats]

Congratulations to Z Touhy for game 264. Equal most for an Irishman with Jim Stynes in league history!

 

[moond0g]

We know Cameron won’t play, but wouldn’t the logical change to the forward line be for O. Henry to spend more time forward in Jezza’s absence rather than playing a bit further up the ground which is where he’s often found himself since the return of Rohan & Stengle from injury and Close from his suspension holiday?

Ollie seems to have been spending more time playing up around the wing, so for this week why not play Rohan as our second tall, Henry as the third tall and have both Stanley & Blicavs push forward at times?

J. Henry is starting to show a return to form as he builds his match fitness, so couldn’t it potentially be counter intuitive to move him forward for a week or two and possibly disrupt the progress he’s making?

I think this would be better balance.

But I think Esava will come back, and unless they rest (or drop) a KPD, I think the easiest way to fit him in would be to move JHenry forward to cover for Cameron.

 

[Jhye Clark 13]

I've got no idea what to expect here.

 

[Mr Meow]

I've got no idea what to expect here.

Expect the unexpected.

 

[kittypurry]

Wow already not much left :/. Would just like to add how consistently shite/useless the Interstate Membership offering is as a Brisbane based fan

As a fellow Brissy fan I have to agree with you! It's essentially a $140 donation to the club for each adult.

The biggest population of Cats supporters outside of VIC is in South QLD so tickets will go so quickly. Thankfully my family are all Brissy supporters so I can use one of their memberships.

If we can't beat Syd at the SCG this week we are zero chance of beating the Lions at the Gabba.

We usually bully Sydney with our bigger bodies but I am more interested to see how we use our leg speed this week against a speedy team. Our first ten minutes of the 4th quarter against Melbourne was breathtaking. Another big, breathless game from Rohan is on the cards. He is in career best form and he obviously knows the SCG like the back of his freckled hand. I'm tipping highlight after highlight from him, especially since Sydney can hold the Tomahawk pretty well.

We win this, North and the Dons are very doable, and we'll have four wins on the trot. Season defining game for both us and the Swannies.

 

[4quarter_cat]

I'm not sure they'll leave Kolo out because Sav is available. It will be because he's pulled up sore from last Thursday.

 

[moond0g]

It's an interesting one as far as Sav Vs SDK too. SDK just barely scrapes contested defensive 1v1 (26.7% Vs 27.3%) but then Sav averages 4x as many contested marks and almost 3x as many intercept marks per game, 50% more rebound 50s, 50% more intercept possessions and 30% more effective disposals.

It's not exactly apples for apples though because SDK has more often had two other talls with him. But that's also another reason it's silly to say we "look better without Sav". He mostly played when both SDK and J.Henry were missing or one played but elsewhere.

Yes, there's certainly a narrative here that Esava is a liability. But his 1vs1 win rate is basically the same as our other KPD. Plus he's had twice as many 1vs1 contest per game this year compared to the other KPD we've got (3 vs. 1.5), as you've alluded to, and is superior in many other areas.

The other argument is that he throws out the balance generally, which is a bit more subjective, and harder to measure. But I'd think on such a small sample either way it's hard to know. And I'd attribute any breakdown we've had in defensive structure to other factors, namely our first choice midfield not being fit and us getting beaten through the middle of the ground more making it easier for teams to transition.

We'll get a better idea of how (if) the MC plan to incorporate Esava into the defence with better availability of personnel in the coming weeks. But I think for this week, If he's fit to play, he'll play.

 

[Footy Smarts]

For the meat tray.

In - Ratugolea, Dempsey
Out - Cameron, Kolo (sore/managed after the hit against Melbourne)

Potentially Tuohy as sub with Bowes into the 22.

 

[Vdubs]

The NOT WHO BUT WHEN YOU PLAY THEM is alive and well this week
Swans are back in form, even discounting WCE.
And missing JC this week, who has been down anyway, does not help our balance.
Tipping us to win at the SCG v an inform intact Swans outfit, given what they will want to do to us, is ambitious.

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes, there's certainly a narrative here that Esava is a liability. But his 1vs1 win rate is basically the same as our other KPD. Plus he's had twice as many 1vs1 contest per game this year compared to the other KPD we've got (3 vs. 1.5), as you've alluded to, and is superior in many other areas.

The other argument is that he throws out the balance generally, which is a bit more subjective, and harder to measure. But I'd think on such a small sample either way it's hard to know. And I'd attribute any breakdown we've had in defensive structure to other factors, namely our first choice midfield not being fit and us getting beaten through the middle of the ground more making it easier for teams to transition.

We'll get a better idea of how (if) the MC plan to incorporate Esava into the defence with better availability of personnel in the coming weeks. But I think for this week, If he's fit to play, he'll play.

Great summary. Our team synergy this season has rarely been strong for personnel based reasons. Early in the year no Kolo and Stewart, and for much longer J.Henry with a block of no SDK too. And of course our midfield stripped bare.

All we can go on are the facts and that is that Sav has done well and as essentially a first year AFL defender, will get better. It makes sense to keep him and all the talls in until Cameron returns at a minimum. But two of the "talls" play on mobile mediums often too, so who knows.

 

[calder_daddy]

Swans are playing 3 tall forwards
Amartey 197
McLean 197
McDonald 196
or Buddy 199
We will need DeK, Kolo and Sav or JH at the very least

I dare say if Franklin plays one of the other 3 doesn’t

Franklin gets Henry
Kolo to Amartey or McDonald
DK to McLean

I know what your saying, I’m just not entirely sure if he’ll come straight back in. Continuity has been spoken about a lot lately by the coaches and players.
Our backline has looked pretty settled since Sav got injured

 

[Mr Meow]

I dare say if Franklin plays one of the other 3 doesn’t

Franklin gets Henry
Kolo to Amartey or McDonald
DK to McLean

I know what your saying, I’m just not entirely sure if he’ll come straight back in. Continuity has been spoken about a lot lately by the coaches and players.
Our backline has looked pretty settled since Sav got injured

78 scoring shots conceded in the 3 weeks since Sav has been absent.

Let's exclude the GWS game because it was half and half.

65 scoring shots conceded in the 3 weeks prior, with Sav playing.

What you have "looked at", is the result of playing 3 teams that on average have been far less efficient in front of goal than the others.

 

[Finknottle]

Ive played 1st grade nothing - but i have got a little bit of free advice for Kolodjashnij- who i think against Melb played one of the worst games ever by any AFL Player on record

And that comes courtesy of Justin Langer - former Aust Cricket coach and opening batsmen

Langer said just recently - when he was still playing - opening the batting for Aust - he was fortunate enough to meet Sir Viv Richards - and thus obviously asked him for a few tips re batting

And Langer said Richards number 1 tip to him - and it was pretty simple and basic - was - watch that ball like a hawk

And thats what Kolo ought to do - then he might not fumble it - overrun it - drop his marks - or totally miss the ball when he is trying to punch it away

He lets the pressure interfere with his normal processes. When Geelong is on top in a game you don't see Kolo making mistakes. As soon as the blowtorch is applied he becomes flakey.

 

[cats_09]

 

[Vdubs]

I dare say if Franklin plays one of the other 3 doesn’t

Franklin gets Henry
Kolo to Amartey or McDonald
DK to McLean

I know what your saying, I’m just not entirely sure if he’ll come straight back in. Continuity has been spoken about a lot lately by the coaches and players.
Our backline has looked pretty settled since Sav got injured

Port impressed against us with their 2 talls and MF- Definitely missed Sav that pm I think.

 

[calder_daddy]

78 scoring shots conceded in the 3 weeks since Sav has been absent.

Let's exclude the GWS game because it was half and half.

65 scoring shots conceded in the 3 weeks prior, with Sav playing.

What you have "looked at", is the result of playing 3 teams that on average have been far less efficient in front of goal than the others.

And we can argue Sav played against Richmond and Freo and they both scored 100 points
Which ever way we look at it we will both find ways to be right.

It’s just an opinion, visually I reckon IMO we have looked more settled since Sav was out
Especially DK

 

[calder_daddy]

Port impressed against us with their 2 talls and MF- Definitely missed Sav that pm I think.

Yeah he would’ve been handy in hindsight but him being in the backline doesn’t stop the blitz we coped after half time in the mids.
Scarlett and Silvalnij wouldn’t have been able to stop that