Preview Round 20 - Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns, Sat 27, 4:35PM; People First Stadium, Gold Coast

[mpal6]

Basically the face promoting the game so it would be pretty cruel by the club to then not name him in the team.

He'll be the sub I think.
McKenna back to first 22.

 

[Billy ray]

Billy ray I've missed out on the blue car park for the first time in forever, is there anywhere to park within walking distance of the stadium?

I park at nerang train station and walk the 25min walk (or catch the shuttle).
Walking is most times just as fast as the bus because of traffic.
How far can you walk?

 

[SizeMatters]

Will be a hard task. Suns will surely try to exploit Brisbane lack of height down back. They have a fantastic backline and this is why I’m against Hipwood playing defence. From what others have suggested a Morris and Daniher forward line will be slaughtered by Collins, Ballard and Andrew. The experts are suggesting the same in that We should keep Hipwood forward so we don’t turn a relative strength into a weakness. I think moving Hipwood back would have been okay with almost any other team but the Suns have a great tall backline. Not sold on Fort as he’s too soft and useless and no way he plays back. I still think move Smith back who has experience playing there in the VFL and did a commendable job and before I get another “he never played there I watched a few games this year”… he played last year and some before that. At least he’s more experienced than an U18 back flanker Hipwood that people are frothing over.

 

[Voss the boss]

I have a few reservations about a Hippy move to defence. Mainly in a few areas, dropped marks could be an issue, turning over the ball with kicks that are often too hard and too flat, and at times his ability to not move the ball on quick enough.

If we can get this win and to me now it is a big if, what a victory it would be.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I have a few reservations about a Hippy move to defence. Mainly in a few areas, dropped marks could be an issue, turning over the ball with kicks that are often too hard and too flat, and at times his ability to not move the ball on quick enough.

If we can get this win and to me now it is a big if, what a victory it would be.

But what are the other options?

 

[dlanod]

Mixed feelings about this endorsement

#1 with a bullet!

 

[Grasshopper17]

We are going to cop goals from marks inside 50 this week. It's a given. We just need to convert our chances and beat them in a shoot out. We are forced to play smaller in defence so we can also turn that into an attacking advantage and winning ground balls in D50.

Yeah I agree with this. Easy in a week like this to focus a fair bit on what players aren't capable of. But I'm quite sure our coaching group will be focusing this week on what our players ARE capable of, and building the team around that.

The other thing is that these matchups don't need to necessarily be static for the whole game. Generally games tend to be played in accordance with teams' chosen structure and method in the first half, but after that they tend to open up, becoming a bit more random and chaotic.

I really see this is as an opportunity. For example, we might try Eric on King in the first half, but move him forward in the 2nd half, and have someone like Berry go back and play on King. Sure, it looks disastrous on paper, but if the game is being played in chaos, (a) genuine one on one marking contests will become less regular and (b) this will give Berry a chance to run off King and use his own skillset to advantage.

I just think if we can hold their talls one on one for the first half, possibly 2 and a half quarters, the game is a chance to open up after that, and if we have gone in with a shorter team overall, this could really be something we can use to our advantage.

That's why I wouldn't have Darcy Fort anywhere near the team on Saturday.

 

[Grasshopper17]

My initial hope was we go small & run them off their feet, just hope to survive as much as we can on the other end in an open game... But after thinking it through I feel a slower game suits us for a number of reasons, and probably suits moving a few taller pieces down back.

Besides the obvious size vs size is usually the best antidote in defence, our ball movement is actually at its best when we control the game with our short kicking. Some of our best moments this year have been where we pick apart the opposition through high quantity marking through and around the middle. Therefore, it would be a drastic change to just fire up the handball game (which was a Fagan off season plan, that failed early).

Additionally, should we use smalls to make it a fast-paced game, that would mean more its more open & 1v1s which, if we're undersized, is not going to work well. A slower game would allow us to block/impede the runs of a King to a marking contest and give an extra a better chance of helping out & either intercepting or interrupting what would be an easy mark.

Think a smaller fwd line has always worked well for us up fwd so happy for Smith to be dropped for Morris.

Hipwood or Fort down back, Lester 2nd tall, Prior/ Answerth in (ahead of a McKenna or Beecken).

Yeah I think Plan A will be to try to control the game with our short kicking, similar to how we did in our first game against Gold Coast this year.

A phrase NFL teams use is "shortening games" by running the ball up the middle of the field, meaning the clock continues to run in between plays. It wouldn't surprise me if we try to do this on Saturday, particularly in the first half. We could potentially chop multiple minutes at a time off the game clock if we're able to kick-mark effectively, allowing us to defend with the football and also forcing the Suns players to chase us around, rather than the other way round.

Of course, to do that, we're going to need to get the ball, so massive onus on our midfield, as there so often is.

Then, after half time, we may look to go a little bit quicker, and we may need to if we are behind.

I really think we are a good chance of outsmarting them, rope-a-dope style, if we are able to control possession for long periods of the first half, shift the Suns around, force them to defend us, even if we aren't able to get great scoreboard return.

If we can do that, I think we'll have a chance of outrunning them in the 2nd half. We just need to stay close enough for long enough to give ourselves that chance.

 

[McIvor]

Also looking at our quarter stats after 18 games, I wonder if we go all out in the first quarter to get a healthy lead; therefore playing Hipwood forward and keeping our forward line as its always been and then making adjustments thereafter:

Q1 - won 15, lost 3, +214
Q2 - won 10, lost 8, +55
Q3 - won 9, lost 9, +8
Q4 - won 8, lost 8, drawn 2, - 8

What is amazing looking at that is how there is a decline quarter to quarter. Smarter people then me would know why.

 

[mpal6]

Also looking at our quarter stats after 18 games, I wonder if we go all out in the first quarter to get a healthy lead; therefore playing Hipwood forward and keeping our forward line as its always been and then making adjustments thereafter:

Q1 - won 15, lost 3, +214
Q2 - won 10, lost 8, +55
Q3 - won 9, lost 9, +8
Q4 - won 8, lost 8, drawn 2, - 8

What is amazing looking at that is how there is a decline quarter to quarter. Smarter people then me would know why.

I'm starting to think we go small in forward line and make it a groundball game. Kick it to space and let Charlie, Bailey, Lohmann, Rayner run to it. If GC play with their 3 tall defenders, we try and exploit them for pace / ground coverage.

 

[Perrip]

From Fages presser this morning:

"They'll [Gold Coast] probably pick the land of the giants this week up in their forward line. That's their business," Fagan said prior to his team's main training session on Thursday morning.
“I want to keep it pretty simple.
"If you try to be too creative and too smart as a coach in this game, then players get distracted, so we'll just make a couple of simple decisions about two blokes that are going to play down there this week because we've lost two.
"They'll get the job done. There's a fair chance that one of those players won't have had much experience playing in the backline.
...
Fagan said he was still waiting to confirm a timeframe on Joyce's return after he suffered a "non-displaced fracture" against Sydney on Sunday.

 

[Nathan Barley]

From Fages presser this morning:

Anyone good at riddles?

 

[Nunez]

Anyone good at riddles?

Fagan to full back confirmed.

 

[blueiris]

Anyone good at riddles?

Joey playing back he played the last 3 minutes down back seems likely that we could just play short and use run out of defence with prior and McKenna coming in

 

[WheildonTheAxe]

Although unfortunate, I think this whole situation presents opportunities for the team. There's a reason why Fagan has played Rayner, Zorks and Berry in the back line of various times.

The whole premise is flexibility. Players who can play different roles in different parts of the grounds and at different stages of a game. We may learn something on Saturday that could be useful in September. Therefore I don't think it will just be as simple as, 'Eric plays back' for two hours of playing time.

I tend to feel like we will have Morris back with three key forwards. I would probably favour Fort over Smith just so we have a little more experience in our genuine talls. This gives us flexibility in the ruck and to drop a player back as demand is warranted.

And as many posters have observed, it's all about the pressure coming into the defensive 50. It doesn't matter if you're three inches taller than your opponent if it's lace out on a lead. Conversely if they're relying on height by bombing the ball we can adjust by using a loose defender.

All that said, I'm very glad we're not playing a team with an elite key forward structure (e.g. Carlton) or a game at home we're flat out expected it to win!

 

[McIvor]

From Fages presser this morning:

Is a non displaced fracture less serious than a broken jaw or a displaced fracture noting I’ve no clue about these things hence possibly the numpty question?

 

[Section 5]

Anyone attending training.
That would give us some answers.

 

[JasRulz63]

Is a non displaced fracture less serious than a broken jaw or a displaced fracture noting I’ve no clue about these things hence possibly the numpty question?

Not knowing any more details, a non-displaced fracture probably doesn't require surgery, but he'll probably be out for 4 weeks or so to allow the fracture to heal.

 

[Hanley]

I played a bit of basketball and often saw teams play poor offense because they were too fixated on a mismatch they are trying to take advantage of. Usually a height mismatch but could be speed on the outside or a poor defender to target. What happens is the players' minds get overcomplicated and overestimate the advantage - they pass up a much better shot to send it to the 'advantage position' which may only be a 10% increase on expected outcome. So the whole team suffers.

GC are a young team (I think youngest in the afl last week) and I can really see them falling for this. Coaches often talk about young players overcorrecting and taking advice on too literally. I think the Suns will actually play worse than against our normal defense because they overreact to our perceived height deficiency. I think there is a very good chance this is how it will play out whatever team we select.

 

[dlanod]

Is a non displaced fracture less serious than a broken jaw or a displaced fracture noting I’ve no clue about these things hence possibly the numpty question?

A broken jaw is a fracture, then it's just the severity - non-displaced means it's broken but it doesn't need to be re-set or re-aligned, i.e. via surgery. Displaced means it's broken and it needs to be re-set or re-aligned to heal properly, which is worse and requires more recovery.

 

[Loyal Lion]

Should be a good opportunity for the Lions to turn adversity into a positive outcome. It's good that we have had virtually all week to think about the strategies & options available. Had Andrews & Joyce been ruled out today, it would have been more difficult to plan & prepare for.

It's a shame that this game is being played during the day. If it had been a night game & if the Suns were dominating with King & co firing, I would have been tempted to pull the electricity cord that powers the stadium lights. Just to break the momentum of the game & to buy us some more time. Similar to when that Melbourne supporter turned the light switch off at the Gabba, when we were destroying the Demons.

 

[Clarkythelion]

We can only hope - not the same but about 3 weeks

‘There’s no risk’: Broncos not concerned for Walsh in return from horror facial fracture

‘There’s no risk’: Broncos not concerned for Walsh in return from horror facial fracture

www.foxsports.com.au

 

[Elixuh]

Fagan to full back confirmed.

Nuney no, Christopher is an elderly gentleman.

You walk to full forward and see this running at you. He has intimate knowledge of all of your moves. What do you do?

 

[Donald Trump]

Also looking at our quarter stats after 18 games, I wonder if we go all out in the first quarter to get a healthy lead; therefore playing Hipwood forward and keeping our forward line as its always been and then making adjustments thereafter:

Q1 - won 15, lost 3, +214
Q2 - won 10, lost 8, +55
Q3 - won 9, lost 9, +8
Q4 - won 8, lost 8, drawn 2, - 8

What is amazing looking at that is how there is a decline quarter to quarter. Smarter people then me would know why.

Yes I like this logic. Morris in, Prior for Joyce. Fort I'm not sure about... Maybe give Henry anther go... against a lesser opponent... He might step up.

 

[BuntonRules]

He'll be the sub I think.
McKenna back to first 22.

Brain has shown he is a very capable intercept mark, and you reckon he will be sub, with the outs we have? No way. McKenna was dropped for a reason, and he will not walk straight back in.