Preview Round 20 - Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast Suns, Sat 27, 4:35PM; People First Stadium, Gold Coast

[Johnny Bananas]

Joe's football is too dumb to play full back.

Bruce was dropped because 3 subs in a row is not good - Brain must play.

Henry - we crave height because if they play Moyle & Witts and we don't have him, they are home.

If we play Prior, that leaves Cal to be omitted.

Glad it is not my job.

Does it? We'd have Brain and Prior on the bench, surely that's enough defenders without needing McKenna too. I would think McKenna would be the sub instead of Cal.

 

[Dalions]

Does it? We'd have Brain and Prior on the bench, surely that's enough defenders without needing McKenna too. I would think McKenna would be the sub instead of Cal.

It either McKenna or Brain for Sub, would much prefer to see McKenna as sub.
Brain deserves to keep his spot.

 

[twhowler]

I'm a bit torn on how much we have an excuse to lose this one.

On the one hand, in terms of our 2024 best side post ACLs we are only missing Payne and Andrews. 2 players! Suns are missing Miller / Ainsworth / Day / Davies. So you'd rather have their outs given only Miller is a gun, especially now that Witts is back in. Still it's hardly like we have half our side out. Midfield is where games are mostly won and ours is intact not just this week but also unaffected by the ACLs.

On the flipside, to also be missing our best 2 replacements for our KPDs has meant we are likely to have to take out a key plank of our forward line in Hipwood. And still leave ourselves vulnerable down back.

Will we be in a bit of a panic trying to cover, change our game-plan too much and struggle to score? That is my concern. I have heard some have all sorts of suggestions on how we need to play slowly etc. I think we have introduced an element of that all year in terms of being more methodical and not exposing ourselves too much on the rebound. But we wouldn't want to over-do it.

Could the suns have gone in too tall with two ruckmen? No doubt plenty of dew in the game in the second half in particular.

I know we have covered the HEIGHT of the backline what about the EXPERIENCE?

Making assumptions about McKenna sub and hippy KD:

Hipwood - experienced player but hasn't played defender since juniors, lightly built for King too
Lester - very experienced, will be undersized either on Lukosius or massively undersized vs a resting ruckman
Prior - in the system four years but only 36 games. Comes in cold with his only AFL game this year in round 10. Will be very undersized when on Lukosius.
Zorko - extremely experienced player and played enough off half back, not a noted stopper but does well when needed
Wilmot - only his third season, 47 games off half back including 6 finals. has always played alongside Andrews and others though to use their experience
Brain - played his first full game last week. Looks to have the goods under pressure and in pressure situations. again hasn't played in a defence under siege though
Starcevich - very experienced lockdown defender

My concern is not that this backline will just fold as soon as a ball is bounced. It's more if the Gold Coast really get on top the defence will be a combination of SHORT and INEXPERIENCED and it could panic sets in and an avalanche of goals. With Gold Coast's midfield they are very likely to get periods where they get well on top. We will have to make sure the midfield is absolutely committed to team defence at this point or it could get ugly.

Our midfield getting pansted in parts of the 2nd and 3rd quarters is what worries me.

I am predicting a couple of periods therefore where the game gets away from us and a 4 goal loss.

Suns played very well in their biggest game this year at GC v pies, albeit that win doesn't look as good now...

 

[Loyal Lion]

I'm over all of the doom & gloom that I had early in the week when I heard that Andrews & Joyce were out. I checked the scores on last year's game with Gold Coast. King kicked 5 goals & Andrews, Payne & Lester played that day. So even with our full compliment of defenders, we still went down. I think the Lions will definitely be more focused this time around & if Hipwood/Daniher can break even with King ie 2 - 3 goals & we keep the other forwards in check, I'm very confident we can win this one if we continue to play to our strengths. The small forwards seem to worry us a lot. Just hope that we can nullify Rosas & Long. They could be the dangermen.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I'm a bit torn on how much we have an excuse to lose this one.

On the one hand, in terms of our 2024 best side post ACLs we are only missing Payne and Andrews. 2 players! Suns are missing Miller / Ainsworth / Day / Davies. So you'd rather have their outs given only Miller is a gun, especially now that Witts is back in. Still it's hardly like we have half our side out. Midfield is where games are mostly won and ours is intact not just this week but also unaffected by the ACLs.

On the flipside, to also be missing our best 2 replacements for our KPDs has meant we are likely to have to take out a key plank of our forward line in Hipwood. And still leave ourselves vulnerable down back.

Will we be in a bit of a panic trying to cover, change our game-plan too much and struggle to score? That is my concern. I have heard some have all sorts of suggestions on how we need to play slowly etc. I think we have introduced an element of that all year in terms of being more methodical and not exposing ourselves too much on the rebound. But we wouldn't want to over-do it.

Could the suns have gone in too tall with two ruckmen? No doubt plenty of dew in the game in the second half in particular.

I know we have covered the HEIGHT of the backline what about the EXPERIENCE?

Making assumptions about McKenna sub and hippy KD:

Hipwood - experienced player but hasn't played defender since juniors, lightly built for King too
Lester - very experienced, will be undersized either on Lukosius or massively undersized vs a resting ruckman
Prior - in the system four years but only 36 games. Comes in cold with his only AFL game this year in round 10. Will be very undersized when on Lukosius.
Zorko - extremely experienced player and played enough off half back, not a noted stopper but does well when needed
Wilmot - only his third season, 47 games off half back including 6 finals. has always played alongside Andrews and others though to use their experience
Brain - played his first full game last week. Looks to have the goods under pressure and in pressure situations. again hasn't played in a defence under siege though
Starcevich - very experienced lockdown defender

My concern is not that this backline will just fold as soon as a ball is bounced. It's more if the Gold Coast really get on top the defence will be a combination of SHORT and INEXPERIENCED and it could panic sets in and an avalanche of goals. With Gold Coast's midfield they are very likely to get periods where they get well on top. We will have to make sure the midfield is absolutely committed to team defence at this point or it could get ugly.

Our midfield getting pansted in parts of the 2nd and 3rd quarters is what worries me.

I am predicting a couple of periods therefore where the game gets away from us and a 4 goal loss.

Suns played very well in their biggest game this year at GC v pies, albeit that win doesn't look as good now...

Good analysis. It will be important we are able to slow their ball movement enough that we can commit multiple players to the fall of the ball, allowing us to block (legally) their taller players from impacting the marking contest. We saw with McEntee on Tom Stewart early in the year, height doesn't necessarily matter in that endeavour - it's more about the desire and the discipline to do the job.

So that's our midfield getting back to block up leading lanes, other defenders getting across to run interference in the air, being prepared to take cheap hits from behind, that sort of thing. Making it a real scrap and getting the ball to ground, where we should have the edge.

 

[Dalions]

I'm over all of the doom & gloom that I had early in the week when I heard that Andrews & Joyce were out. I checked the scores on last year's game with Gold Coast. King kicked 5 goals & Andrews, Payne & Lester played that day. So even with our full compliment of defenders, we still went down. I think the Lions will definitely be more focused this time around & if Hipwood/Daniher can break even with King ie 2 - 3 goals & we keep the other forwards in check, I'm very confident we can win this one if we continue to play to our strengths. The small forwards seem to worry us a lot. Just hope that we can nullify Rosas & Long. They could be the dangermen.

Someone will be paying King a lot of attention in this game, where in the last game he was kind of allowed to run free due to him wanting to mark Andrews which wasn’t the match up we wanted, so he got away with getting out the back constantly early in the game it was only after he kicked the early goals that Harris decided he better Man up.

 

[Berrygood]

It either McKenna or Brain for Sub, would much prefer to see McKenna as sub.
Brain deserves to keep his spot.

It wouldn't surprise me if Prior is sub. I think Fages will play McKenna, he doesn't put his first graders as sub. Can't see it starting now. He is however happy to sub out a first grader if they aren't performing. I agree Brain deserves to hold his spot. His efforts late in the game v Swans earnt him that. Prior covers McKenna's potential poor form and Berry if Suns mids start to get on top and Berry is needed back inside.

 

[Timetoroarlike44]

It wouldn't surprise me if Prior is sub. I think Fages will play McKenna, he doesn't put his first graders as sub. Can't see it starting now. He is however happy to sub out a first grader if they aren't performing. I agree Brain deserves to hold his spot. His efforts late in the game v Swans earnt him that. Prior covers McKenna's potential poor form and Berry if Suns mids start to get on top and Berry is needed back inside.

Prior seems fairly certain to be our third kpd though doesn’t he?

Lester one
Hippy or smith two
Prior three

Or are you assuming starce or brain three? I can’t see mckenna doing it

 

[Nathan Barley]

Prior seems fairly certain to be our third kpd though doesn’t he?

Lester one
Hippy or smith two
Prior three

Or are you assuming starce or brain three? I can’t see mckenna doing it

Starce could maybe go to Lukosius

 

[Loyal Lion]

Someone will be paying King a lot of attention in this game, where in the last game he was kind of allowed to run free due to him wanting to mark Andrews which wasn’t the match up we wanted, so he got away with getting out the back constantly early in the game it was only after he kicked the early goals that Harris decided he better Man up.

100% correct. He did seem to get easy goals last year. He will be under the microscope this game.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

I am glad they omitted Alex Sexton, it is my perception that he generally plays very well against us.

The Suns version of Nathan Eagleton?

 

[bungalow_bill]

VERY VERY GOOD PREVIEW! EVERYONE IS SAYING IT!!
The backline will be fine if the ball doesn't go in there.. That's the plan.
Lions will break the Sun's home run, and win by at least 47 points.
#MLGA

If we win it'll be

 

[twhowler]

Starce could maybe go to Lukosius

Yeah and i guess given he is a much more experienced and proven player might be better

Starce is decent in the air, only 2cm shorten than prior. Any 2s watches report on how he has gone against tall oppo, who has he been playing on?

 

[alscotoz2]

Defend from the forward line, dominate clearances, limit inside 50s. Harris who?

Job done... hopefully

 

[Grasshopper17]

Defend from the forward line, dominate clearances, limit inside 50s. Harris who?

Job done... hopefully

Bit disappointed Fages didn't trot out the "Harris Andrews Football Club" line again to tell the truth.

 

[Nathan Barley]

‘We’ll find out’: Dimma not fooled by ‘paper names’ amid Lions’ line-up mind games

‘We’ll find out’: Dimma not fooled by ‘paper names’ amid Lions’ line-up mind games

www.foxsports.com.au

Hardwick says Hipwood trained with the defenders this week

 

[Section 5]

I think they start with this backline and see how things go.
If the Suns can't out mark us, then they will be in trouble when it comes to ground.
The opposite could be our issue but worth a gamble in the 1st quarter i recon.

FB: Zorko - Prior - Starcevich
HB: Wilmot - Lester - Berry/McKenna & Brain

Berry with some wing/mid time also.
Hippy to defense way before putting Jo back.

Player heights
Berry - 192cm
Lester - 192cm
Prior - 189cm
Starch - 187cm
McKenna - 184cm
Brain - 183cm
Wilmot - 183cm
Zorko - 175cm (Zorko no longer our shortest player that is now Craven at 174cm)

 

[twhowler]

Interesting to note my tipping comp (run by ESPN) with 100s of 1000s of tipsters, has 83% of people tipping us. I find this an interesting measure because it doesn't always reflect the odds of the match - sometimes a slight fave will only have 20% support for example. I am choosing to use this as my point of optimism.

Does anyone else get the impression Hardwick doesn't like us much? Lost to us twice in finals.

 

[Chucky_23]

Billy ray I've missed out on the blue car park for the first time in forever, is there anywhere to park within walking distance of the stadium?

I parked on Chisholm Rd once. It was about a 20 minute walk

 

[Grasshopper17]

Interesting to note my tipping comp (run by ESPN) with 100s of 1000s of tipsters, has 83% of people tipping us. I find this an interesting measure because it doesn't always reflect the odds of the match - sometimes a slight fave will only have 20% support for example. I am choosing to use this as my point of optimism.

Does anyone else get the impression Hardwick doesn't like us much? Lost to us twice in finals.

I am a bit surprised that so little has been made of the loss of our key defenders. So many people who have put together articles about "who is each team's most important player that they can't afford to lose" list Harris Andrews for us. Which I think is correct and appropriate.

But now he's out, it's like, "oh well, whatevs", also seemingly completely disregarding both Gold Coast's home record AND the fact we've lost every single key defender we have besides Froggy.

This is the same group of people who are very happy to pot our record at the MCG and the same people who suddenly claim to be shocked when we're somehow in the top 4 or whatever.

The only possible explanation I can put it down to is that we are largely out of sight: out of mind, and much more would be made of our defensive personnel issues if we were a Melbourne-based club.

 

[Perrip]

"Neale at some stage will get of the chain, we've just got to make sure we manage those moments and manage to exploit him going the other way at various stages as well." Damien Hardwick opting to continue without a full tag.

Because that's worked out brilliantly for teams that don't tag Neale lol

 

[Grasshopper17]

Because that's worked out brilliantly for teams that don't tag Neale lol

He might be foxing like Fages might have been regarding Joe. Maybe he's planning on having someone down Lachie's shorts all day long.

He did concede after the Collingwood game that "you really do have to tag Nick Daicos".

 

[twhowler]

I am a bit surprised that so little has been made of the loss of our key defenders. So many people who have put together articles about "who is each team's most important player that they can't afford to lose" list Harris Andrews for us. Which I think is correct and appropriate.

But now he's out, it's like, "oh well, whatevs", also seemingly completely disregarding both Gold Coast's home record AND the fact we've lost every single key defender we have besides Froggy.

This is the same group of people who are very happy to pot our record at the MCG and the same people who suddenly claim to be shocked when we're somehow in the top 4 or whatever.

The only possible explanation I can put it down to is that we are largely out of sight: out of mind, and much more would be made of our defensive personnel issues if we were a Melbourne-based club.

Why can't you let me live in ignorant bliss?!

I reckon we would have lost by 5 goals against the swans without Harris on the weekend. We did do very well when he was off with HIA but we were well on top in general by then against a tiring swans side.

I am trying to remember his really off year - 2021 or 2022? He was fine. Held is own in contests. But we had such high standards for him that we all bemoaned how poor he was!

I think this year is his best. Marking as good as it's ever been. And his kicking has lifted over the past couple of years. His passes are lower and he pulls the trigger with more speed and confidence. He used to be a slightly dodgy kick but now he pulls off those 25m kicks with aplomb.

We also would have been wiped off the map against the blues without him in the prelim. His first quarter was one of the best i've seen from any lion in context.

Such a shame we couldn't free him up earlier in the gf. He was everywhere in the last.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I am glad they omitted Alex Sexton, it is my perception that he generally plays very well against us.

That fellow Sexton has some talent but he cannot put together a good season. North had a similar player in Mason Wood who never played well at North despite everyone at North rating him. Wood though has produced the goods at the Saints over the last two seasons.

I always rated Cutler who played a run of good games at Essendon late in a season to earn another year there but was delisted after that which proved me wrong.

I wonder if Sexton could play as a key defender? Too small probably.

 

[McIvor]

I am a bit surprised that so little has been made of the loss of our key defenders. So many people who have put together articles about "who is each team's most important player that they can't afford to lose" list Harris Andrews for us. Which I think is correct and appropriate.

But now he's out, it's like, "oh well, whatevs", also seemingly completely disregarding both Gold Coast's home record AND the fact we've lost every single key defender we have besides Froggy.

This is the same group of people who are very happy to pot our record at the MCG and the same people who suddenly claim to be shocked when we're somehow in the top 4 or whatever.

The only possible explanation I can put it down to is that we are largely out of sight: out of mind, and much more would be made of our defensive personnel issues if we were a Melbourne-based club.

And you just know that if the Suns do win they’ll be proclaiming what a huge win it is and no mention of our depleted backline and probably that all clubs have injuries.