Round 21 changes: Footscray v Melbourne.

[Scott Tracy]

Worried about this game as they tend to have owned us over the last 5 years, can only remember the JUH kicking 5 win that was only sealed late and we possibly snuck another one in, but in general they have dominated and we have been scared to take them on.

Could have said the same thing about the Cats and their piss-can of a ground, so hopefully it’s the same result.

Even more worried that their dedicated thread to us is nearly on page 4 of their board, and their match thread is full of posts saying they are cooked and are no chance….

Since 2019 its actually been quite even. 9 games, We've won 4, they've won 5.

I think its just that the losses are stuck in our head more than the wins because Round 1 losses are always memorable and for some unknown reason AFL keeps making us play them in Round 1. And the GF is obviously always in our head.

Also is it just me? or does the GF and the last three Round 1 games just all seem like a repeat? I swear we always get a few goals in front at some stage but by the final siren we've lost by more than 40+ points.

We seem to usually play well at Marvel against the teams who play home games at the MCG (Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond ect)

Finishing Melbournes season tomorrow will the perfect way to end this "Mentally Scared" or whatever you wanna call it thing against them.

 

[ossie_21]

Since 2019 its actually been quite even. 9 games, We've won 4, they've won 5.

I think its just that the losses are stuck in our head more than the wins because Round 1 losses are always memorable and for some unknown reason AFL keeps making us play them in Round 1. And the GF is obviously always in our head.

Also is it just me? or does the GF and the last three Round 1 games just all seem like a repeat? I swear we always get a few goals in front at some stage but by the final siren we've lost by more than 40+ points.

We seem to usually play well at Marvel against the teams who play home games at the MCG (Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond ect)

Finishing Melbournes season tomorrow will the perfect way to end this "Mentally Scared" or whatever you wanna call it thing against them.

Last 5yrs was maybe a stretch. But from 2021, we have only beaten them twice in the last seven, or once in the last 5.

That needs to be reversed, starting from Friday night.

 

[RWnBluey]

Surprised by the Freijah non selection. Had assumed he was ‘managed’ last week in anticipation for the short 5 day break before returning to the team v Melb.

He’s best 22 IMO. Been really impressed with him this year. Did Bevo mention anything else? Any niggles or injury concern? Or perhaps it’s just a case of continuing to manage his load given he’s only 18.

 

[stefoid]

Well he has never ever been omitted. So the coaches love what he brings as do I. Defensively he is our best fwd. without doubt.

sure, but for footy knowledge sake, what is he doing in each phase of the game that defines his game? running a lot, we can see that. but where and when?

I think the general view is everbody (me included) doesnt really know what he is doing that gets him a game each week. spectators are generally ball watchers and particualrly on TV where you dont even get the option to see what is going on elsewhere.

 

[stefoid]

Since 2019 its actually been quite even. 9 games, We've won 4, they've won 5.

I think its just that the losses are stuck in our head more than the wins because Round 1 losses are always memorable and for some unknown reason AFL keeps making us play them in Round 1. And the GF is obviously always in our head.

Also is it just me? or does the GF and the last three Round 1 games just all seem like a repeat? I swear we always get a few goals in front at some stage but by the final siren we've lost by more than 40+ points.

We seem to usually play well at Marvel against the teams who play home games at the MCG (Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond ect)

Finishing Melbournes season tomorrow will the perfect way to end this "Mentally Scared" or whatever you wanna call it thing against them.

2019/20 is ancient history

2021 is where melbourne went past us in terms of how they play the game, and we have been their bunnies every since.

But I take a lot from our win in geelong where we turned the tables on them so thoroughly.

However, I suspect opposition coaches are right now picking apart our last 3 games, so... lets see how it stands up

 

[Golden_6]

Did Bevo actually confirm those guys specifically were playing VFL? I read Bevo’s direct quotes and he’s leaving the door open for a change or two.

“But I think we're pretty healthy. We don't anticipate the team's going to change much at all, so that's pretty encouraging.

"There was an eye to the future with the short turnaround that keeping some boys fresh...But the team is always picked on the best 23 that week... they're likely to play for the state league team."

I think we’re pretty much at our best 22 for the rest of the season and possible finals. The only changes I would make are Harmes (when healthy) in for VDM and Freijah in for Buku or Coffield.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Did Bevo actually confirm those guys specifically were playing VFL? I read Bevo’s direct quotes and he’s leaving the door open for a change or two.

“But I think we're pretty healthy. We don't anticipate the team's going to change much at all, so that's pretty encouraging.

"There was an eye to the future with the short turnaround that keeping some boys fresh...But the team is always picked on the best 23 that week... they're likely to play for the state league team."

I think we’re pretty much at our best 22 for the rest of the season and possible finals. The only changes I would make are Harmes (when healthy) in for VDM and Freijah in for Buku or Coffield.

That's how I read the Freijah and Sanders resting - they were in legitimate need of a rest rather than any view to the future or the idea of a five-day break, just because being a first-year player is you're not as physically prepared as others who have done more and longer pre-seasons.

I'm not sure we're going to be resting players for the sake of it, especially as one game make or break could be the difference between top 4 or not. I'd much rather have a slightly less rested top 4 team than a team finishing 5th with fresh players.

 

[stefoid]

these threads should be renamed "who do we think should replace VDM this week (but wont)"

 

[ossie_21]

Surprised by the Freijah non selection. Had assumed he was ‘managed’ last week in anticipation for the short 5 day break before returning to the team v Melb.

He’s best 22 IMO. Been really impressed with him this year. Did Bevo mention anything else? Any niggles or injury concern? Or perhaps it’s just a case of continuing to manage his load given he’s only 18.

I think that was the plan, but after the way the team played against Sydney, it would be very hard to make unforced changes on the back of that

 

[Mofra]

I thought he said something like "they're likely to play for the state league team tomorrow afternoon"
He also talked about JOD returning via state league given Liam, Rory & Buks are in good form.

If I had to guess now it might just be one change with Macrae coming back in. Not sure who goes out, perhaps Macrae to sub and CD plays VFL.

 

[dergert]

I'll spew if Garcia gets dropped again.

 

[willofwest]

Stop Pickett !!

Agree completely, he is their spark.

 

[BrunswickDog]

I think that the Dee's will.come out and try and rough our boys up. They will attack our guys hard physically, and try to disrupt our flow.

In the past this has unsettled a few of our boys.

That is what I expect to see

 

[Next Waiting]

I suppose they can't name an extended squad today because it's the day before the game so at 18:30 it is what it is.

Given Bevo's comments, perhaps everyone has recovered better than expected and if that's the case it's hard to drop anybody ... except Daniel. He'll need a full game this week so I'd guess he plays VFL and the sub is one of Macrae, Freijah or Sanders.

I'll go Macrae as the only change. Long shot, Timmy as a sneaky out replaced by Freijah. Lobby to ruck.

 

[X_box_X]

My thoughts being at the round one game, fourth quarter aside when we seemed to not be as desperate, we at least matched them in general play but lacked structure going forward. We were very wasteful.

I'm not sure if my opinion is shared, but I came away from that game thinking we had at least matched them in the midfield which is an area Melbourne had dominated us at in some of the recent meetings.

Looking at the full time stats, we matched them for F50 entries (53 each) and only lost clearances by two. I suspect we would have been well ahead in those categories half way through the third qtr. It was such a frustrating game to watch.

There was a lot said prior to the season starting that Melbourne were advantaged by playing in 'round zero' but I don't subscribe to that theory. That's not why we lost.

The Melbourne loss in round one very much reminded me of the Essendon match a few weeks later. We were very wasteful in both games. I feel our forward line is functioning A LOT better since round eight.

Some of the reasons why I think we should win:

1. We matched them in general play at the MCG in round one (final 40 minutes aside when our pressure rating dropped),
2. Our forward line is functioning A LOT better than it was in round one,
3. Melbourne are inconsistent and certainly unreliable compared to previous seasons,
4. Importantly the game is at Marvel.

I'm going to tip us by 41 points, and I don't often tip us, especially by such a margin. I'm four clear in tipping so I need to start being smart about the way I go about things. Usually I like to tip against us to hedge with my emotions.

 

[Golden_6]

I won’t be confident in this game until I don’t see Ben Brown

50

Ben Brown

Age

31

Ht

200cm

Wt

100kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.7

3star

K

7.7

3star

HB

3.0

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.2

3star

G

2.2

5star

D

7.9

2star

K

6.3

3star

HB

1.6

1star

M

3.7

4star

T

0.9

2star

G

1.0

4star

D

8.0

2star

K

4.6

2star

HB

3.4

3star

M

4.4

4star

T

1.4

4star

G

1.2

4star

’s name on the team sheet.

 

[Doggy]

I won’t be confident in this game until I don’t see Ben Brown’s name on the team sheet.

 

[X_box_X]

Melbourne F50 differential
-71

WB F50 differential
+144


Melbourne clearances differential
-65

WB clearance differential
+46

 

[ossie_21]

Melbourne F50 differential
-71

WB F50 differential
+144


Melbourne clearances differential
-65

WB clearance differential
+46

15.4.94
12.20.92

Melbourne win confirmed

 

[Doggy]

15.4.94
12.20.92

Melbourne win confirmed

They've kicked over 13 goals very rarely. The last one was against wet toast

 

[Doggy]

Unchanged... so Garcia stays in

 

[Bulldog Brent]

Unchanged.

 

[Dogsman16]

No change.

 

[X_box_X]

Gees

 

[Bald]

Our fitness guy deserves a raise. No change after a five day break is impressive.