Prediction Round 23 Changes vs. GWS Giants

[dominguez]

Any ITK’s have insight to Darcy’s chances of getting up? 50/50?

I have no inside 50 but he's not getting on the plane if I'm making the call. Take Reidy to Sydney and let Darcy get healthy for Port.

If we take Darcy to the GWS game and he doesn't perform and we lose the heat should start building on JLo. You can't lose 3 weeks in a row at Match Committee.

 

[Deanismyhero]

We're $1.40 to make the 8 so the bookies still think we'll get there.

If we can finish 6th and get a home final and Pearce and Treacy are fit we can still have an impact in September but there's a lot of IF's there.

Those odds are BS. Load up on Carlton 1.80 unless Weagles or Saints do us a favour. i Took Freo to miss finals at 7$ before this weekend. Shame i only put 50$ on it.

 

[dominguez]

So in an ideal world we get Sonny, Darcy and Treacy back.

And hopefully we have an attacking option as sub.

Win one of the next 2 and we should be in finals thanks to other results.

Rather win this and be able to manage players for round 24 in the hope a second win isn't necessary.

If we beat the Giants we'll be playing Port for top 6 and a home final week one. That's massive, a home final then potentially the out of sorts Swans at the SCG the week after to make a prelim. Compare that to having to play the red hot Hawks in an elimination final after finishing 7th.

 

[mightymouse75]

We are not making finals on current form.
Not a chance.

If we get Josh and Darcey back maybe.

 

[dominguez]

My mate texted me 15mins before bounce down saying he left the stadium and went home - I asked why and he said 'they've just replaced Darcy with Tabs, I am done'. I still think it was a bit of an overreaction to actually leave before the game started, but I get the frustration with the structural shitstorm that the coaches invoke on the team whenever Darcy goes down.

Anyone, anyone at all gets selected before Reidy - is he actually that much worse than Meek when he was blooded in 2022? I'm not getting it, and apparently no one else is.

2 games to go, it feels a moot point rolling the dice with Brodie or NOD. Brodie in particular could've had 8-9 games in the side now and become a reliable figure, it's all too late now.

Our season isn't cooked, the bookies line for the GWS game is 11.5 so they expect it to be close.

If Brodie comes in and we win then get Pearce back for finals anything can happen.

 

[dominguez]

Those odds are BS. Load up on Carlton 1.80 unless Weagles or Saints do us a favour. i Took Freo to miss finals at 7$ before this weekend. Shame i only put 50$ on it.

Eagles will beat Carlton, the Blues lost 5 players to injury yesterday. They're done.

 

[dominguez]

We are not making finals on current form.
Not a chance.

If we get Josh and Darcey back maybe.

It's not like we're getting flogged. Only a couple of weeks ago we destroyed the Demons and they almost beat Port on the weekend.

 

[Taylor]

If we beat the Giants we'll be playing Port for top 6 and a home final week one. That's massive, a home final then potentially the out of sorts Swans at the SCG the week after to make a prelim. Compare that to having to play the red hot Hawks in an elimination final after finishing 7th.

If we beat the giants and then the dogs beat the giants the following week, we are playing for top four against Port.

What a tight finish.

Zero wins, no finals.
One win, finals.
Two wins, top four

 

[Taylor]

If we beat the giants and then the dogs beat the giants the following week, we are playing for top four against Port.

What a tight finish.

Zero wins, no finals.
One win, finals.
Two wins, top four

But I should point out that if we beat GWS and then Dogs beat them too, we are playing for with top four, or 9th.

Somehow, my ladder predictor says if Port beat us we finish 9th, but if we win we finish 4th. Couldn't be tighter.

 

[rgauci]

I think we lose to GWS, Alex Pearce

25

Alex Pearce

Age

29

Ht

201cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

10.6

3star

K

5.2

2star

HB

5.4

4star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.8

4star

MG

106.3

2star

No current season stats available

D

11.0

3star

K

5.0

2star

HB

6.0

4star

M

4.4

4star

T

0.8

3star

MG

103.2

2star

to be rushed back in to face Port. I think Carlton are beatable, but eagles could easily start resting players and getting surgeries now.
I think Schofield has already shown enough to given a 2 year contract as coach. No one else wants the job. If Carlton win and Hawks win (highly likely) and we lose. It may not matter whether we beat Port or not by the time we play. Could be a dead rubber.

 

[Deanismyhero]

But I should point out that if we beat GWS and then Dogs beat them too, we are playing for with top four, or 9th.

Somehow, my ladder predictor says if Port beat us we finish 9th, but if we win we finish 4th. Couldn't be tighter.

That also requires port to lose the showdown ?

 

[Alfonz]

We are not making finals on current form.
Not a chance.

If we get Josh and Darcey back maybe.

Our form isn't as bad as some are trying to make out. We are in better form (albeit can't finish games) than the teams that can turf us out of the finals in Carlton, Collingwood and Essendon. And realistically it is mainly Carlton who have massive injury problems and woefully out of form.

GWS have a 6 game winning streak going, which includes 4 close games where they gave up big leads from the start and could easily have lost. It's so hard to keep that going and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if we win this game. Then the classic Freo way would be to lose at home to Port in the last round.

 

[dominguez]

I think most people would have. No team is going to win missing their three most important structural players.

Surely having $1.8M of our salary cap tied to 2 ruckmen should mean that if one goes down we're still ok?

 

[dominguez]

I think we lose to GWS, Alex Pearce to be rushed back in to face Port. I think Carlton are beatable, but eagles could easily start resting players and getting surgeries now.
I think Schofield has already shown enough to given a 2 year contract as coach. No one else wants the job. If Carlton win and Hawks win (highly likely) and we lose. It may not matter whether we beat Port or not by the time we play. Could be a dead rubber.

The good thing is the Eagles are guaranteed pick 3 now so they'll want to win at home this week. There's no incentive from a draft perspective to lose this week.

 

[Mags98]

GWS form line flatters, theyve had at least two games where they really should have been smashed but the opppo poor goal kicking cost them big time

in saying that im not confident we match up against them well at all. hopefully darcy is fully fit and can actually put some effort in this time around, jackson has been subpar most the season, we need a massive lift from both of them if were any hope of making finals

 

[The Lobbster]

Surely having $1.8M of our salary cap tied to 2 ruckmen should mean that if one goes down we're still ok?

The problem is we had double jeopardy. Losing Darcy is manageable because we can stick Jacko in ruck and still get a serviceable game at minimum whilst Treacy and Amiss can kick a winning score. Or we can cover for Treacy with Voss, with Jackson and Amiss still being an at least threatening forward line.

The problem is we lost both. This meant we would’ve had to win both clearance and the I50s by tons to overcome a frankly substandard forward line. We couldn’t do that so we lost. On the weekend you could actively see our backs trying to avoid a kick to a 2-2 or similar with Tabs and Voss involved.

The salary of the rucks means nothing. If you build your forward line around three tall blokes and then only one of them plays in the forward line, you’re going to struggle.

 

[Taylor]

On the weekend you could actively see our backs trying to avoid a kick to a 2-2 or similar with Tabs and Voss involved.

This is the exact reason we stuffed around with it. We had no confidence in the talls to create a contest or take a grab.

And I'd argue, rightly so. Our best mark forward was Freddy, then Amiss and neither are holding their ground to contest a long kick up the line.

Voss needs to work on it all preseason. Tabs needs to be replaced.

But if Jackson suddenly can clunk one again, look out.

 

[Dockernut]

Have to cut off his supply at the source.

Problem is, he just knows how to find the pill…

 

[Superkoops]

This is the exact reason we stuffed around with it. We had no confidence in the talls to create a contest or take a grab.

And I'd argue, rightly so. Our best mark forward was Freddy, then Amiss and neither are holding their ground to contest a long kick up the line.

Voss needs to work on it all preseason. Tabs needs to be replaced.

But if Jackson suddenly can clunk one again, look out.

Re: Voss I’ve mentioned this numerous times throughout the year. I like Voss strong body and goes hard and sticks a tackle. His big weakness and he gets away with it at WAFL is his inability or want to mark with hands out in front of the body. He needs to practice this as much as possible and refrain from taking marks on his chest. It might impact his WAFL form in the ST but will benefit him at AFL level. He was generally a bit fumbly on the weekend.

Been a pretty solid first up season but as you say he needs to spend a full pre-season working hard on this part of his game to take the next step.

The choice of Tabs over Reidy was bewildering. Tabs is cooked in my opinion.

 

[apuchar]

Let me be more clear, Johnson isn't far off Brodie as an inside mid already and you can't play Brodie instead because Johnson spends time on the wing.

And then you add the upside and it's no contest.


Holy **** dude, how are you not getting this? That's exactly what "young" teams do. More talented teams that lack the polish/composure/whatever required beyond pure ability to consistently win games against more experienced teams.

It is literally what people mean when they say it's hard to win when you're young. Its not because they don't have the raw ability, its all the other stuff that 99.9% players only get from experience.




Don't want him to overdo it, he's noticeably quicker than Cripps.

He's already pretty hard to tackle, could be an absolute beast with another preseason.

Johnson is no where near Brodie as an inside mid. He is improving but is just a bit player for now. I don't believe Brodie and Johnson can't play in the same team anyway. As you said Johnson can play wing and plus he can go forward.
Taking a forward off the ground for a rest after kicking a goal after 50 seconds of play is the bigger issue, than having another quality inside mid on the bench occasionally

 

[Dockernut]

Problem is, he just knows how to find the pill…

I say, I say, I…he’s been getting plenty of bags lately.

Eh? Eh?

 

[Bicco]

But if Jackson suddenly can clunk one again, look out.

How good was that moment in the 2nd quarter when Freddie laid a tackle AND Jackson took a mark. I was pretty impressed let me tell you.
Just need both them to do it about x5 times more per game and then do that every week, not once a month.

 

[Joao]

Johnson is no where near Brodie as an inside mid. He is improving but is just a bit player for now. I don't believe Brodie and Johnson can't play in the same team anyway. As you said Johnson can play wing and plus he can go forward.
Taking a forward off the ground for a rest after kicking a goal after 50 seconds of play is the bigger issue, than having another quality inside mid on the bench occasionally

Johnson isn't a winger or a forward. He spends time on the wing because he can't play inside. When he is inside, he does well. He's not as good, but he could well be better as early as next year.

Somebody pointed this out on another thread, we only play 3 pure mids (sometimes less if we're short a forward). Fyfe, Serong and Brayshaw. That's who he as to displace because he can't play anywhere else.

 

[Rob]

I come in peace, just find the pressure comment interesting as on our board, and my thoughts personally, is that pressure is what has won us the games these last 6 weeks.

Where do you think the wins and in game turn arounds have occurred?

From what I've seen when you get the running game going you're hard to stop. It's actually a pretty similar game style to Freo. But with that comes a risk of turnovers and being wide open on the rebound.

To be fair I didn't see much of your last game, although listening on the radio they were more scathing of Brisbane wasting it than any particular good play by the Giants.

 

[apuchar]

Johnson isn't a winger or a forward. He spends time on the wing because he can't play inside. When he is inside, he does well. He's not as good, but he could well be better as early as next year.

Somebody pointed this out on another thread, we only play 3 pure mids (sometimes less if we're short a forward). Fyfe, Serong and Brayshaw. That's who he as to displace because he can't play anywhere else.

Serong plays forward, so does Brayshaw, Young, and Fyfe. We have plenty of room for another top quality inside mid. Johnson is just learning the trade and is only playing 62% game time and isn't in the same league as Brodie at this stage of his development. Have less stupid unnecessary rotations on the bench and add the extra quality mid. Or at very least stop the mind-bogglingly idiotic small back sub. We are getting torched in the last quarters. Friggin try something. Sick of hearing it isn't a problem. We have been fading late in seasons for years and here we go again and for the fifth year in a row our coach doesn't think it is a problem