Autopsy Round 3, 2024: Essendon v St.Kilda

[The Punter]

Merrett would have been instead of Dunstan or Acres.
You think that Dunstan's issue was lack of development? I disagree.

If someone didn't think that Longer was the ants pants, it would have been possible for us to draft.
M Crouch , Z Merrett, T Nancurvis . Instead of Dunstan and Acres.

If our recruiters were worth their salt, they wouldn't have rated Longer so highly after seeing his exposed form.

I thought the sliding door for Longer was dispatching Ben McEvoy. IIRC in that 2013 trade week we acquired Longer first then traded out McEvoy. There were already some issue in 2013 with playing both McEvoy and Hickey in the same team.

Dunstan was as good in game 1 as he was in game 116. I would say that is development (none of his identified weaknesses appeared to ever improve).

I'm on the record: we have had a development problem rather than a drafting problem. It's also why it is never fair to say we could have drafted <insert Sydney or Geelong draftee here> instead: they could draft anyone and turn them into AFL talent.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

I thought the sliding door for Longer was dispatching Ben McEvoy. IIRC in that 2013 trade week we acquired Longer first then traded out McEvoy. There were already some issue in 2013 with playing both McEvoy and Hickey in the same team.

Dunstan was as good in game 1 as he was in game 116. I would say that is development (none of his identified weaknesses appeared to ever improve).

I'm on the record: we have had a development problem rather than a drafting problem. It's also why it is never fair to say we could have drafted <insert Sydney or Geelong draftee here> instead: they could draft anyone and turn them into AFL talent.

Some people , before the draft considered that Dunstan was ready to play now, but would have a low ceiling.
They were correct.

We traded McEvoy for pick 18 and got Savage as steak knives.
THEN , We then traded pick 25 for Longer.
The difference of players available at 18 and 25 meant that it was treading water at best.

Ironic that McEvoy went on to play longer than Longer.

In hindsite that draft was very good. Its a pity we end up empty handed from it.

If you are a recruiter , you should be better than the average media or big-footy commentator at spotting future talent.
We weren't. Abysmal drafting and list management.

 

[The Punter]

If you are a recruiter , you should be better than the average media or big-footy commentator at spotting future talent.
We weren't. Abysmal drafting and list management.

This is true, and would be a valid point if every other club used average media or big-footy commentators to do their recruitment. But they use recruiters. It's a zero sum game.

I've watched enough draftees with reportedly elite skills regress over the years to be convinced that what St Kilda has had is a development problem.

 

[Miha]

Still salty about this game, absolute jizz of a club are the bombers. It’s an offensive name too they need to change it.

 

[Dr Spaceman]

Still salty about this game, absolute jizz of a club are the bombers. It’s an offensive name too they need to change it.

 

[MordySaint]

If you are a recruiter , you should be better than the average media or big-footy commentator at spotting future talent.
We weren't. Abysmal drafting and list management.

Lets take a look at 2017 draft ... the recruiters matched Callum Twomey perfectly in his phantom draft and picked his selections.

Callum Twomey's 2017 Phantom Draft

Who will your club take in the NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call

www.afl.com.au

You could argue we didn't need two more half-backs to add to our list of half back flankers ... Coff and Clark seemed a safe bet and wouldn't cause any headlines. But where they really what we actually needed at the time.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

This is true, and would be a valid point if every other club used average media or big-footy commentators to do their recruitment. But they use recruiters. It's a zero sum game.

I've watched enough draftees with reportedly elite skills regress over the years to be convinced that what St Kilda has had is a development problem.

Yet players haven't left StKilda and gone on to be remarkably better.
If anything, when we had the likes of Saad, Templeton, Weller etc, we were getting the maximum we could hope for out of those players.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Lets take a look at 2017 draft ... the recruiters matched Callum Twomey perfectly in his phantom draft and picked his selections.

Callum Twomey's 2017 Phantom Draft

Who will your club take in the NAB AFL Draft? Our guru makes the call

www.afl.com.au

You could argue we didn't need two more half-backs to add to our list of half back flankers ... Coff and Clark seemed a safe bet and wouldn't cause any headlines. But where they really what we actually needed at the time.

We needed some good, proper mids. Wrong draft for that. We grabbed the nearest we could find , Clark especially had midfield raps.
Best available would have given us Naughton ( and massive melts here on the Saints board), and ??? Higgins?

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

We needed some good, proper mids. Wrong draft for that. We grabbed the nearest we could find , Clark especially had midfield raps.
Best available would have given us Naughton ( and massive melts here on the Saints board), and ??? Higgins?

Yep a whole massive list of average mids taken in the next 12 picks. The best two were Naughton and Allen. And maybe we skip on King if we take one of those a year later. Even with hindsight hunter was the best available. Coff too no one's fault he can't get his body right. I don't think Zac Bailey would be the difference between us and a flag right now.

 

[Diehard Saint]

Still salty about this game, absolute jizz of a club are the bombers. It’s an offensive name too they need to change it.

The air raid siren before the game is horrible.

 

[Miha]

The air raid siren before the game is horrible.

Quite insensitive to those folk who’ve lived through war time. Cancel club immediately

 

[Saints43]

The air raid siren before the game is horrible.

The whole "Be a Bomber" marketing on the big screens was in debatable taste as well.

 

[austinnn]

6 years of Elshaugh have hurt us big time!

All due respect, Trout left many years ago, in that time before Keeler, what rucks did we draft? What rucks did we trade in that weren't freebies that were in the winter of their AFL careers?

Aside from maybe the greatest Ruckman with a capital R that we'd had for over a decade.

We got very lucky with Ryder, but in retrospect, his dominance stopped us from taking this hole in the squad seriously.

 

[pebblesofsand]

So it looks like a few lean years then as we wait to draft mids mids and more mids and then wait for them to grow into AFL players.

By then Marshall will be gone so then we will need to be looking for rucks rucks and more rucks.

In the meantime, using Owens as a stop gap is killing his development.

Personal choice (This season and the next)

Ruck - Marshall

Tall forwards - King Hayes (some ruck time)

Medium Fwds - Philipou, Membrey

Small Fwds - Higgins, Butler

Mid - Owens

Bench - Sharman or Caminiti

 

[hayes]

So it looks like a few lean years then as we wait to draft mids mids and more mids and then wait for them to grow into AFL players.

By then Marshall will be gone so then we will need to be looking for rucks rucks and more rucks.

In the meantime, using Owens as a stop gap is killing his development.

Personal choice (This season and the next)

Ruck - Marshall

Tall forwards - King Hayes (some ruck time)

Medium Fwds - Philipou, Membrey

Small Fwds - Higgins, Butler

Mid - Owens

Bench - Sharman or Caminiti

The problem with drafting them is it looks unlikely we’ll be having many top 5-10 picks with Ross around which is where you get all the match winning mids. I’m all for the draft for all the other positions but as hard as it is we’re going to have to bring in one or two mids or hope like hell that at least two of Windhager, Owens and Phillipou get to the level.

 

[True Believer]

The whole "Be a Bomber" marketing on the big screens was in debatable taste as well.

Heard it got a lot of attention in Parramatta......

 

[SaintsSeptember]

Yep a whole massive list of average mids taken in the next 12 picks. The best two were Naughton and Allen. And maybe we skip on King if we take one of those a year later. Even with hindsight hunter was the best available. Coff too no one's fault he can't get his body right. I don't think Zac Bailey would be the difference between us and a flag right now.

Hawks traded us their early pick, they picked up James Worpel the pick before Paton.
Xerri went real late in that draft too.

 

[hayes]

Hawks traded us their early pick, they picked up James Worpel the pick before Paton.
Xerri went real late in that draft too.

Don’t forget we didn’t need Worpel because according to Richo, Trout etc. our inside mids were sorted because we had Dunstan and Armitage. Near the bottom for contested ball every year but we didn’t need inside mids, seriously you couldn’t make this stuff up.

 

[ScrappyDo]

So it looks like a few lean years then as we wait to draft mids mids and more mids and then wait for them to grow into AFL players.

By then Marshall will be gone so then we will need to be looking for rucks rucks and more rucks.

In the meantime, using Owens as a stop gap is killing his development.

Personal choice (This season and the next)

Ruck - Marshall

Tall forwards - King Hayes (some ruck time)

Medium Fwds - Philipou, Membrey

Small Fwds - Higgins, Butler

Mid - Owens

Bench - Sharman or Caminiti

Assuming Hayes can stay on the part this would also be my preference. Titanic in front of Hammer as l would like him to get another year or so to develop and push one of Membrey or Hayes out or into retirement.
I think it's time to turn the page on our midfield and let Chito and Windy establish themselves in there.

 

[saintmike65]

All due respect, Trout left many years ago, in that time before Keeler, what rucks did we draft? What rucks did we trade in that weren't freebies that were in the winter of their AFL careers?

Aside from maybe the greatest Ruckman with a capital R that we'd had for over a decade.

We got very lucky with Ryder, but in retrospect, his dominance stopped us from taking this hole in the squad seriously.

Elshaugh May have been a number of years ago but one bad draft can set you back years & he had several!

 

[SaintsSeptember]

All due respect, Trout left many years ago, in that time before Keeler, what rucks did we draft? What rucks did we trade in that weren't freebies that were in the winter of their AFL careers?

Aside from maybe the greatest Ruckman with a capital R that we'd had for over a decade.

We got very lucky with Ryder, but in retrospect, his dominance stopped us from taking this hole in the squad seriously.

Rucks on our list , new for that year bolded.
2012: McEvoy, Stanley, Jay Lever, Koschitski
2013: Pierce, Hickey, McEvoy, Stanley, Jay Lever, Koschitski
2014: Holmes, Hickey, Longer, Pierce, Stanley
2015: Holmes , Longer , Pierce, Hickey.
2016: Holmes , Longer, Pierce , Hickey
2017: Holmes, Longer, Pierce, Hickey , Marshall. Trout= Recruiting and list manager, Libra = Vic Talent Scout.
2018: Longer , Pierce , Hickey , Marshall
2019 :Alabakis, Pierce , Longer, Marshall Still Trout and Libra
2020: Abbott, Jack Bell, Ryder Marshall, Alabakis Libra = National Recruiting manager. Gallagher : List Manager
2021: Heath , Hunter, Alabakis, Marshall , Ryder Libra=Recruiting manager. Toce= Victorian Talent Scout.
2022: Campbell, Heath , Marshall, Ryder
2023: Keeler, Heath, Marshall, Campbell. Toce : Recruiting Manager, S.A. Scout??? Stephan Lennie or Simon Guest?
2024: Heath , Keeler, Marshall, Campbell.

 

[The Punter]

It's hard to talk about rucks and ruck depth without also keeping in mind that your options for the actual team are:

1. Play 1 ruckman, and try a non-ruckman as relief ruck for 5 minutes a quarter
2. Play 2 ruckmen, and the second ruckman plays as a key forward for some portion of the game
3. Find a player who can be productive both as a ruckman and a key forward

So since Collingwood in 2010 and the sub rule changed the prevailing wisdom on ruckmen (in 2009 and 2010 we almost exclusively played two, with one on the bench at almost all times and one on the ground rucking), this is what we have done:

2011: McEvoy #1 ruck, Kosi relief (with some Stanley)
2012: McEvoy #1 ruck, Kosi, Blake and Stanley relief
2013: McEvoy #1 ruck, Hickey relief (with a little Stanley/Kosi)
2014: Longer #1 ruck, Stanley relief
2015: Longer #1 ruck, Hickey relief
2016: Hickey #1 ruck, no relief (we just went third man up all the time, so they banned it)
2017: Longer #1 ruck, Bruce relief
2018: nobody played more than 13 games who rucked. We finished bottom 4.
2019: Marshall #1 ruck, Bruce relief
2020: Ryder #1 ruck, Marshall relief (Marshall finished 4th in the B&F doing this, Ryder 8th)
2021: Neither Ryder or Marshall played more than 13 games. Big doses of Paul Hunter.
2022: Ryder #1 when fit, Marshall relief or #1 depending on Ryder availability.
2023: Marshall #1, Owens/Cordy/Caminiti relief

The best situation was 2020, but the whole season was an outlier. And as I said at the time numerously, Ryder and Marshall ruck completely differently.

So considering Marshall isn't going anywhere, and he isn't to change his strengths and weaknesses, probably the best we can do is find someone who is a key forward who ensures we don't get killed in the middle when Marshall is having a breather. Other than that, we need to find another clearance beast ruckman so we have consistency of style regardless of who is rucking.

TL; DR - we have other areas of need before ruckmen.

 

[SaintsSeptember]

It's hard to talk about rucks and ruck depth without also keeping in mind that your options for the actual team are:

1. Play 1 ruckman, and try a non-ruckman as relief ruck for 5 minutes a quarter
2. Play 2 ruckmen, and the second ruckman plays as a key forward for some portion of the game
3. Find a player who can be productive both as a ruckman and a key forward

So since Collingwood in 2010 and the sub rule changed the prevailing wisdom on ruckmen (in 2009 and 2010 we almost exclusively played two, with one on the bench at almost all times and one on the ground rucking), this is what we have done:

2011: McEvoy #1 ruck, Kosi relief (with some Stanley)
2012: McEvoy #1 ruck, Kosi, Blake and Stanley relief
2013: McEvoy #1 ruck, Hickey relief (with a little Stanley/Kosi)
2014: Longer #1 ruck, Stanley relief
2015: Longer #1 ruck, Hickey relief
2016: Hickey #1 ruck, no relief (we just went third man up all the time, so they banned it)
2017: Longer #1 ruck, Bruce relief
2018: nobody played more than 13 games who rucked. We finished bottom 4.
2019: Marshall #1 ruck, Bruce relief
2020: Ryder #1 ruck, Marshall relief (Marshall finished 4th in the B&F doing this, Ryder 8th)
2021: Neither Ryder or Marshall played more than 13 games. Big doses of Paul Hunter.
2022: Ryder #1 when fit, Marshall relief or #1 depending on Ryder availability.
2023: Marshall #1, Owens/Cordy/Caminiti relief

The best situation was 2020, but the whole season was an outlier. And as I said at the time numerously, Ryder and Marshall ruck completely differently.

So considering Marshall isn't going anywhere, and he isn't to change his strengths and weaknesses, probably the best we can do is find someone who is a key forward who ensures we don't get killed in the middle when Marshall is having a breather. Other than that, we need to find another clearance beast ruckman so we have consistency of style regardless of who is rucking.

TL; DR - we have other areas of need before ruckmen.

Maybe Hayes.

 

[MordySaint]

TL; DR - we have other areas of need before ruckmen.

Our engine room of midfield and ruckmen is the most important area, you can't have one without the other.

 

[The Punter]

Our engine room of midfield and ruckmen is the most important area, you can't have one without the other.

We have, objectively assessed, one of the best three ruckmen in the league. Can we do better than Rowan Marshall in his current role? Are we in for Tim English? That's noes all round, right?

(What I am saying is it's the other thing, and our midfield options are either young or injured right now).