Prediction Round 6: Changes Vs Carlton + pre-match discussion

[WaywardSonSon]

Yes , best way my 28 yr rebuild plan for them happens is they get on a bit of a roll and finish 9th , convince themselves that they are not as bad as they thought and go half assed into a re stump/wire/plumb with the wrong coach like a certain other team I can think of


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You crack me up Tony - keep up the good work!

 

[Purple Jesus]

Thanks for resolving relatively peacefully. I would personally put Chief as a higher level of passive aggressiveness than "they dont get it", if Square Peg had have champed you though mike91, it would be have a warning and points. We dont do that here

I was so close to using champ... Bullet. Dodged.

 

[WaywardSonSon]

I called La Dispute clueless. I guess that's equal to saying, "You don't get it".
No regrets.

 

[oldgoat]

Crowley left in 2003-2015, Ballentyne 2009-2019

Here are some stats. Free kick for vs against. Do you think the data back your claim up?

2022 (so far) - 106%
2021 - 96%
2020 - 118%
2019 - 104%
2018 - 91%
2017 - 90%
2016 - 97%
2015 - 89%
2014 - 86%
2013 - 93%
2012 - 106%
2011 - 106%
2010 - 105%
2009 - 93%
2008 - 109%

All time percentage - 97% (14/18 teams). Only 3 percentage points from being totally even. Doesn't sound that bad, honestly.

Let's add total tackles as a general measure of pressure. AFL rank is in parentheses. Is there a correlation between the number of tackles and free kick %, which is what my original post was suggesting.

2022 (so far) - 106% - 282 tackles (4/18)
2021 - 96% - 1076 (17/18)
2020 - 118% - 828 (13/18)
2019 - 104% - 1275 (17/18)
2018 - 91% - 1325 (15/18)
2017 - 90% - 1401 (16/18)
2016 - 97% - 1593 (10/18)
2015 - 89% - 1527 (8/18)
2014 - 86% - 1561 (6/18)
2013 - 93% - 1647 (3/18)
2012 - 106% - 1666 (3/18)
2011 - 106% - 1604 (8/17)
2010 - 105% - 1637 (3/17)
2009 - 93% - 1268 (13/16)
2008 - 109% - 1114 (14/16)

Looking at these data, I would say that my claim that more pressure = more tackles = more opportunity to get favorable free kick counts does not hold up. Clearly, tackles are correlated on some level with our record (not that that would shock anyone. lol)

Also, considering that we're only 3% off being totally even for our club's history, I don't think you can say we've been seriously shafted. But there are some teams who do benefit from the rub of the green (i.e. Western Bulldogs at 107% all time and West Coast as 105% all time.)

AFL Tables - Free Kicks

what about freo,wc and dogs at home vs away?

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Wilson is most like for like, they will want to keep similar structure as possible I think... hmm

Yeah he would increase our speed.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

Clark, Walker, Wilson, Logue, Cox, Pearce

You reckon Ryan might get a run ?

 

[Fred Ziffel]

i think youre the only one

Nope, I’m in the Cripps won’t play camp too. ( particularly now we appear to be weakened ).
Perfect storm for Freo coming up.

 

[Fred Ziffel]

How come Wilson gets blasted for bombs to no where when Luke Ryan did the same thing and copped no criticism for it whatsoever? To be fair to Ryan he’s been better the last few weeks.

Wilson was our best rebounder between 2018 and 2020. Been good for us since he came to the club bar the last month of last season. Looked like he recovered his old form in the pre season. We have better players now, no doubt about that, but his contribution to the club since he’s been here shouldn’t be dismissed the way it has.

He’ll play on Saturday and will more than likely do a half decent job.

Wilson hit some nice long passes in the Sharks game.

 

[wakojako]

May I remind y'all that the club's history of bad luck is no coincidence. In the early years of Fremantle the club refused to play one of their indigenous boys. The father came down to one of the games and pointed an animal bone at the team and yelled at them and thus the curse began.

 

[Daddoo]

what about freo,wc and dogs at home vs away?

I don't have time to go through all 2007-2022, but here are the overall stats.

Home (all time)
Freo - 107% (9/18)
WC - 116% (1/18)
Dogs - 112@ (3/18)

Away (all time)
Freo - 89% (16/18)
WC - 96% (5/18)
Dogs - 107% (1/18)

So, you can see all three teams get the "home field advantage". WC and Dogs are top three at home and Dogs are top of the heap away. Freo does not do well on the road with the umps. But you could say this for almost all teams.

The range for home teams is 96%-116%

The range for away teams is 87%-101%

Plain and simple, every team fairs better at home. So, Freo are no different than most other teams. The anomalies are WC and Dogs who are top 5 in both home and away, which may be why some Freo fans feel like we're getting shafted. We have one of the best free kick count teams in our backyard and we play them twice a year.

Here's your FUNSTAT of the day: After 5 games this year, Freo is running at 173% for free kick count at home and 73.17% away. Now that's a HELL of a discrepancy!!

 

[eastfreo75]

I don't have time to go through all 2007-2022, but here are the overall stats.

Home (all time)
Freo - 107% (9/18)
WC - 116% (1/18)
Dogs - 112@ (3/18)

Away (all time)
Freo - 89% (16/18)
WC - 96% (5/18)
Dogs - 107% (1/18)

So, you can see all three teams get the "home field advantage". WC and Dogs are top three at home and Dogs are top of the heap away. Freo does not do well on the road with the umps. But you could say this for almost all teams.

The range for home teams is 96%-116%

The range for away teams is 87%-101%

Plain and simple, every team fairs better at home. So, Freo are no different than most other teams. The anomalies are WC and Dogs who are top 5 in both home and away, which may be why some Freo fans feel like we're getting shafted. We have one of the best free kick count teams in our backyard and we play them twice a year.

Here's your FUNSTAT of the day: After 5 games this year, Freo is running at 173% for free kick count at home and 73.17% away. Now that's a HELL of a discrepancy!!

Take out the outliner against the Giants.

 

[JammoMonty]

Holy! This thread went South.

I will try and rejuvenate the topic. Hayden has one or two highlights between a lot of crap, but he gets away with it because he is Hayden Young. Chapman had a stinker on the weekend, but he can because he is Chappy and we love him and know he will win us a premiership one day

Logue cops crap all the time, despite having a career best performance the other week. Tabs has been under fire forever. Lobbe is still in the shooting range as a target. Brayshaw has copped enough unwarranted shite over time. Acres, Aish, Henry. Not many targets out there for the Freo faithful... I could go on

So yes, Chapman and Young are important. Are they as important as Pearce and Ryan, no and no. Are they as important as Tabs and Lobbe - no and no. Are they in our top 5 most important players going forward. Yes and Yes.
Who can replace them - Wilson, Logue, Hamling with a change from Ryan. Aish can shuffle. Hughes can come in. We have depth enough, not as exciting, but they will get the job done. As mentioned by someone else, the midfield will determine the outcome.

This is like a Billy Joel Song

Logue had a solid game. Played well as he had no preparation for the game and was a last minute change for Pearce. Very athletic, but not a footballer. Stick with adding him last minute to remove him overthinking the game, which is clearly a struggle for him.

 

[freo1997]

May I remind y'all that the club's history of bad luck is no coincidence. In the early years of Fremantle the club refused to play one of their indigenous boys. The father came down to one of the games and pointed an animal bone at the team and yelled at them and thus the curse began.

Bring him back…..

To unpoint?

 

[JammoMonty]

May I remind y'all that the club's history of bad luck is no coincidence. In the early years of Fremantle the club refused to play one of their indigenous boys. The father came down to one of the games and pointed an animal bone at the team and yelled at them and thus the curse began.

Which players father was it?

 

[Freoboy in Melbs]

I'm not shitting bricks with the Chappy & Young outs. Chappy was quiet last week and we found a way to win. I think its a bugger and they're definitely first choice picks. But the second choice picks look pretty handy. I'm assuming Tucker & Logue will likely get a call up. Maybe Wilson if he's fit. They're strong players, and they'll be out there working hard to prove their worth. We'll be ok. Just hope there aren't any more outs. Carn Freo!!

 

[Freoboy in Melbs]

Ya know, the upside to our players all coming down with COVID or even just isolating one or two players each week, is we're kind of getting some forced rests into players without devastating the best 22 too much. Schultzy just got a week off. I like to think that he's used that week to rejuvinate any lingering niggles, and he might come back just that bit fresher and nippier. Chapman & Youngs turn this week. There'll be more. So long as we don't lose 4-6 players in any one week, and we can still win games like this weeks game against Carlton, these forced outs, one by one, could yet prove to be a blessing in disguise. Time will tell.

 

[tonygeeks]

The outs might even work in our favour, this was a classic freo shit the bed game under the bright lights and a week of gushing positivity

Let a little bit of air out of the party balloons without totally wrecking our chances


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[StingBitten]

It's not ideal losing Young and Chapman but we can manage. Maybe people are losing their minds because it's Carlton... cos last year we had about 12 of our preferred 22 on the bench and it seemed business as usual.

The biggest anxious wait now is losing any further players to the protocols, which is easily possible.

 

[StingBitten]

May I remind y'all that the club's history of bad luck is no coincidence. In the early years of Fremantle the club refused to play one of their indigenous boys. The father came down to one of the games and pointed an animal bone at the team and yelled at them and thus the curse began.

I've been hearing this for years. I've also heard several Elders undid all that around 2002, which makes sense as we started our first competitive run from 2003-2007.

It's been all us since then.

 

[WaywardSonSon]

We're going to win because I have a feeling this crowd is going to be baying for blood!
MadEyeEmmy any chance you could please slide into JL's DM's again, and tell him to tell the boys that we haven't forgotten about what happened last time, and this means a lot to us? Hehe

 

[theGav56]

Covid was always shadowing us this season, and here it is.

We're emerging from a rebuild and still short of being a realistic contender. At this stage we are a work in progress with a focus on development, and especially development of character. Very keen to see how we go.

 

[Madas]

The outs might even work in our favour, this was a classic freo shit the bed game under the bright lights and a week of gushing positivity

Let a little bit of air out of the party balloons without totally wrecking our chances


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Will make for a good excuse when/if we get rolled as well

 

[JammoMonty]

Will make for a good excuse when we get rolled as well

We’re not getting rolled.

Freo will go 1v1 to prevent Carltons fast start which has set up its wins this year. Won’t be an exciting half.

Freo will get to work in the 2nd half and come storming home to grab the four points.

Pearce/Cox
Tabs to kick another bag
Brayshaw will rise to the challenge
Brodie gets the tag
Clark to stand up (finally)
Acres flattens Cerra
Mundy goes forward & kicks a couple

Bring on Saturday night

 

[WilloTree]

Two defenders out isn't ideal. We still have the players to match-up pretty well though.

MmKay - Pearce
Curnow - Cox
Silvagni - Logue
Owies - Ryan
Durdin - Walker
Fisher - Clark

7th - Aish

Could look at Wilson as well.

 

[wakojako]

I've been hearing this for years. I've also heard several Elders undid all that around 2002, which makes sense as we started our first competitive run from 2003-2007.

It's been all us since then.

I don't want the S&C on speedial, I want them elders. Can we get them to curse the blues?